Why must it be a problem with ITR? There were countless examples in history when a supposely superior aircraft was “killed” by a supposely inferior type. That happens no one is undefeatable.

I agree, this is why i put it only as hypothesis. I didn’t say there MUST be a problem. It is quite impressive, because of the difference in thrust.

This must be a lock alright and it’s a Rafale.

Edit: that and what Aspis wrote. Till I find some time to read it. 🙂

Good luck in continuing on this, i am not wasting more time, it’s all yours.

Merry Xmas.

“Greese” was a typo, sorry for that.

Glad to hear it.

Why did Greece participate in the Euro in the first place, when it apperently only yields disadvantages?

More or less it’s how i end up ruining my Xmas mood. Did i say that the euro yields only disadvantages? No, i did not. I answered to what Greece would do without it, which is another story. The euro yields advantages too, which in normal (non crisis) period are obvious (operating stability and protection from attacks above all and is good for the banks since day 1) , but it’s not all sunshine either, as you may think or imply with the “what would you do without it”. We have been without it too in the past, it’s not the first time Greece’s ratings are BBB+, they have been worse before the euro and dealt with it and the greek economy right now may be the worst in the euro zone, but it’s not the worst in the world.

Of course such discussions have a limited value, it’s like asking an American after the Vietnam war “Why did you go to a war that you couldn’t win and you didn’t want to fight?”. In Greece it’s called being a prophet after the event has occured.

Although i could stop here, since i didn’t say the euro yielded only disadvantages and to the risk of my mood, i will go further.

The advantages of euro, obviously you know them, hence why you said what you said, so i will spare myself the time and effort to write the advantages of the euro. I will say you that the euro was and is a strategical option in the long run. Basically we entered the euro because it was a strategical interest and goal, just like the reason of why the EU or the euro was created in the first place. Let aside the immediate advantages, the issue is the long term. Greece has interest in the long term in achieving european integration in all sectors, not just monetary, more than many other EU countries. Greece is always saying “yes” when it comes from political integration to military integration and jumps first to any EU move towards that end, because if and when the day arrives that the EU arrives to a condition similar to the US, then for starters our defence problem will be over.

Now to the not so obvious, specially to a German, sides of the euro for average citizen:

– The bigger weight on the euro exchange rate was brought by the DM. In Germany, the exchange rate was such that passing from DM to euro, was a very natural process. In countries were the conversion rate was very off balance, by a combination of market opportunism, lack of proper goverment intervention because it is a “free economy” and perception of the people, led to prices to double or even triplicate. For example, in Greece’s case 1 euro= 340,74 drachmas. 1 euro is a coin. The perception of people, based on drachmas, was that coins have little value. At the end we ended up that while with the prices going all up, partly because people couldn’t perceive a coin as “good money”, because with drachmas , it wasn’t. Italy at some point, if you recall, had for the same reason, asked the ECB to consider making a bank note of 1 euro, in order to “give value” to the coin, just like in USA there is a 1$ bill. The ECB (wrongly IMO), refused to do so. With this and that, combined with the fact that in Greece competition doesn’t work properly and anti-trust authorities too, you arrive to this:

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/7223/50548085.jpg

It’s a receipt of few days from the Telecomunications Tower cafè of Thessaloniki. It’s a spinning tower with a view, not even something too exciting if you ask me.

http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/Αρχείο:OTE_tower_Thessaloniki_July_23_2006.jpg

1 hot tea 6 euros
1 perrier mineral water 330ml 6 euros
1 chocolate 8 euros.

Total (Vat incl.) 20 euros.

This was one of the unpredicted aspects of euro, that even when it arised, didn’t move the ECB enough to make a 1 euro bill, which would have helped to a certain degree. As a result, the cost of life has skyrocketed.

– A part of greek economy had to completely re-adjust due to the strong euro or central rules. For example you go to a greek island and order a lobster. You all happy that you are about to eat a probably freshly taken out of the water lobster. After all , that’s why islands exist. Well, there’s a good chance that the lobster isn’t so fresh, because it came from northern Africa or Turkey, because they cost much lower and the tavern keeper doesn’t want to buy from greek fishermen. Fortunately most tourists aren’t fish-experts enough and can’t tell the difference. As a result, fishing as an activity was severely reduced not only by that, but also due to the fact that they have to abide by EU enviromental legislation , while competitors in the Med, don’t and they can use for example nets that sweep everything , while in EU they are banned. There are similar effects in other professions which are shrinking.

– The other aspect of the euro which couldn’t be foretold in 1999, was what would happen if the global economic crisis would come in 10 years time. Who could predict that US would go into such a shock? The problem when such a crisis arrives, is exactly, that you have no control at all over the currency’s strenght and you can’t do what you were always doing when trouble was coming at you and what US herself did: print money, inflate your currency to increase competitivity and pay off easier your debt.

– Tourism and shipping account , with variation from year to year, for 10 to 16% of GDP each. Tourism leading, shipping trailing but being more robust. Actually, shipping remains a non completely exploited resource in Greece, because many of the greek owned ships, prefer flag of opportunity instead of greek one, because the ship owners, can’t get a good enough deal from the greek goverment. In Greece the left has a very strong voice in media and in political ideology, so even a small left party can shout against the goverment “bending to the capitalistic ship owners against the right of the workers” and it will make a big fuss about it.

The global crisis made both tourism and shipping fall. Not to the point to provoke to the businesses themselves serious damage (because they had enough earnings from previous years to pass the “storm”), but the strong euro has penalized the state income.

Ironic as it may sound, for a Greek, for a combination of the above points, is cheaper to go for summer vacations to some other European country or to some exotic country to the other side of the globe, than to cross 50km of sea to the nearest island… In fact there is a big greek tourist wave that doesn’t stay to Greece for vacation. There is a similar effect in Spain. In both countries, travel agents don’t give you the same deals as they do with foreigners, because they suppose that since you are a local , you will stay in Greece/Spain anyway. Well, the strenght of euro and increase in cost life, can’t counterbalance that anymore and there is a ridiculously high exit of Greek tourists for Xmas, summer, that leaves Greece.

We (=Germany) don’t dial the Euro exchange ratio, we would prefer a 1to1 exchange ratio with the USD, too.

I know that Germany isn’t controlling the euro, the ECB is and the exchange rate is mainly controlled by the market, but truth be told, the ECB didn’t really try to do much to bring the euro a bit lower, because on its turn it remains partially a hostage of political decision – making in Brussels, the stability pact etc.

– Euro dropping, because it’s a new currency, it is feared that can be bad for “image”.

– Europe has a line in keeping inflation lower than 2%. A drop in euro , especially if happens with a rise in oil price,
can go above the 2% with which the EU is almost obsessed, for the stability pact not to brake.

– US inflates willingly the dollar, has printed huge amounts
of $ to exit the crisis, the EU preferred to follow the “stick
on stability pact” and we will exit by cutting expenses.
If you ask me, this is excessive rigid mindset, in fact, the US , although hit much harder than Europe, has come back
to grown faster than the eurozone as a whole.

– If Euro drops to the $, the US trade deficit will worsen, EU
fears that the Americans may raise the protectionism shield.

The 3rd part alone is enough to make the euro go up, independently from markets’ demand for euro or $. They print more money, you don’t, your currency will go up…

And if Germany can’t dictate policy to ECB, then imagine if
Greece can or how much Greece’s concerns are important to the ECB.

Anyways, Greece didn’t do its homework, suffering from bad government. That doesn’t mean I have any specific prejudices against Greek people, I know a few. But the budget policy of the federal government is a catastrophe.

Greece is suffering from wrong mentality in the last 20 years and from an extremely bad goverment in last 5.5 years. Myself i have no trouble in voting either conservatives or socialists and the socialists are responsible
for the mentality and corruption in greek political and economical life in large part. But the past conservative goverment was by FAR the most incompetent (not bad, but incompetent) that i have seen.

I am so disgusted that i vote for none of them and i have been hoping that the crisis would FORCE us to do the structural changes that they never did.

I have been swearing on the greek goverment LONG before Fitch. This the most recent of 5 November:

http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1483281&postcount=18

The political MENTALITY that brought Greece to this, is exactly the mentality that says:

– Why bother do something to attack self-employed professionists who are massively evading taxes and get the 30 bln euros of lost tax income, when i can do 1-off cuts here and there (defence budget included)?

– Why bother to do something to actually collect the VAT? If i am the EU country with so much non collected VAT, i should look to re-structure my mechanisms!

– Why bother do something to reduce bureaucracy that costs me 7% of GDP and drives investors away, because they need to jump through hoops and 100 papers to open an business?

To cut defence budget as % of GDP, is OK up to a point, because the armed forces have been reduced in number (conscript service falls to 10 months), there has been some re-organization to limit better resources, there is more room to that and the economy was growing at about 4%.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/9813/dapaneshellas2.jpg

The figures are a bit underestimated as in the GDP table, it should be around 6-6.5 bln if you count the “extras”, but even if you go berserk and say “i won’t have a defence budget next year and save 6 bln” , that’s NOT the problem and you won’t go far in the future with such measures.

This MENTALITY is what has brought Greece to Fitch’s arms. Where of course this is another story, where a country is hostage of an evaluation house, as Sarkozy rightly said. Ironically similar houses doing risk assessment over countries were amongst those that provoked the global crisis… But that’s another story.

– You have lawyers or doctors with private practices in the most “aristocratic” neighbourhood in Athens, who charge you by the hundred of euros every time you step your foot there , they don’t give receipts and they declare a yearly income of 9500 euros, below the tax free limit , so they don’t pay taxes at all.

– Those who pay the taxes in Greece, are those on salary or in public service.

– Owners or night clubs, electricists, plummers, singers, actors, taxi drivers are all in the below 10.000 euros per year category. Any form of self-employable profession you can think of , is massively tax evading, with few exceptions of people who don’t , because they have principles.

– At some point in the 90s, a past socialist goverment had attempted a shy step against tax evading, by putting some “criteria”. For example, you are a laywer, you have 5 houses, 2 with swimming pool at Mykonos, you have 3 cars and a 10m boat, this means you can’t possible earn 10.000 euros as you claim, we will assume you earn 20.000. The measure was soon withdrawed, under the pre-electoral pressure of the opposition, claiming it was a speculative unfounded estimation of someone’s income that they would abolish. So the socialist part abolished it too so that can win elections. The funniest part of all this madness, is that i believe that if a goverment would actually go down hard on tax evasion of those who really evade, they would WIN the elections! Because those who can’t hide their income, would feel relief and would massively vote that party. But they don’t want to take risks. They(politicians) think “Why risk it, if we can go on like we do today”…

– Pension system is the most protective in Europe probably, because we are “socialist” country. For the same reason, while in all Europe women are going to pension at the same age with men, in Greece they have enjoyed priviledges in the last 20 years, that allowed them to go to pension even at 15 years of work and only today, after a EU court decision, we will be forced to cut a 5 year “bonus” to the women and force them to go at the same age with men. Personally i never understood why greek women were so more special than ther rest of women in Europe. Besides, on average women live longer than men by 5 years. Women lack in strenght, but they have more endurance.

– The PM anounced that he will cut 2 of the 5 administration levels in Greece. Why there were 5 (central goverment, peripheric administration, regional, etc)? On theory, it was giving better control. In practice, it was a good way to put political friends in administration posts and increase bureaucracy.

– The most recent example in the greek political insanity and especially the incompetence of the exiting goverment, came tomorrow. The top Court of Greece, due to the lack of properly updated enviromental study from the Ministry of Enviroment, has banned hunting in Greece. Now, you may think “well, good for the enviroment, hurray!”. That’s exactly what a small radical left, self-proclaimed ecology party (and antigreek in other policies, says and is cheering about it). The problem is, that in Greece, there are officially registered 250.000 hunters (more than the armed forces), who, for the months that are allowed to hunt, sustain a business of 1 bln euros. So, it’s not the right time to cheer about losing 1 bln euros from the market, in a services economy, just because some bureaucratic moron in a ministry, didn’t update the enviromental study to submit. But for our little crackpot party, that’s not problem, hurray, the hunters can’t hunt, who cares if we go bankrupt!

You can’t imagine the MADNESS that is greek politics, and a big part of it, comes because of the knee-jerk reaction after the military junta, where a huge political weight was gained by the left, where we ended up to insane political situations.

For example, CAN YOU BELIEVE, that in Greece there would be a political party that was pretty directly encouraging the burning and destruction of Athens by 500 anarchists last December? In Greece there is! It was the right “uprise” of the youth (youth are 500 anarchists and some illegal immigrants looting shops). Athens last year got burnt because we had a conservative goverment, that ordered the police to take “defensive posture”. All the opposition, including the current socialists, where accusing for police brutality. The conservative goverment let Athens burn, in fear that if the police charges and someone gets hit, they will be accused of “junta tactics”, “reminders of 1967 junta”, etc. Since THIS year, we had socialist goverment, the police attacked, Athens survived with little damage. Because a socialist goverment in Greece, is immune to the accusation that “you are fascists, remind of the junta”.

So, this year, there were anarchists (the foreign media confuse between “students” which do peaceful manifestations and the anarchists, that get into the march and at some point detach from it and start throwing molotov bombs) from ALL EUROPE (since if you try to do in Germany what they were left free to do in Greece last year, you will end up in jail in no time), happy that they will be able to burn again. Unfortunately for them, now we had socialist goverment…

On the bright side, since we suffer from the “junta ghost” the 90% of those arrested are released or will be tried for minor felony, which means a fine and you are out. Because under greek legislation, burning, looting and attacking police, isn’t a serious crime. That’s why we also have an anarchists quarter inside Athens that no goverment ever tries to touch and enforce proper policing. It would be “police brutality”.

For the same reason, no plastic bullets for the greek police and the new goverment will cease the use of tear gas too and instead will use water cannons.

Always for the “junta ghost” , if a policeman shoots someone, be it innocent or a criminal, the left political parties and media will make a crusade against him. If you kill a policeman or send him to the hospital, it’s no big deal, no party will say anything and it will pass once from media and disappear.

Always because of the “junta ghost” (it’s like the nazi guilt-syndrome in Germany, only worse, because it’s capitalised by the left parties to use it as weapon against the conservatives, who are always apologetic), our anarchists find shelter and safeheaven, inside the university. Because since the junta fell, there is university “asylum”. The police can’t enter on her own will inside a university, they need the call from the Board of professors or a mandate of a district attorney in case there is crime against human life commited. In practice this never happens. For this reason, last year, the university was the place of producing molotov bombs en mass, in all safety from the police. Also the anarchists, were using the local indymedia website for coordination, instructions where to hit, etc, which is hosted from the university’s servers. So basically, in Greece, the greek state, which pays all university expenses, is paying money to host the website that coordinates those who burn the city. And NOBODY dares do anything about them, because touching the asylum or removing the servers would be “fascist”, “reminder of the junta”. This because the junta in 1973 had raided the politechnic with tanks. So from then on, the asylum has been abused to the point that acts as safeheaven for anyone that wants to destroy the state or private property.

This year, the “students” inside the university (masked anarchists and 16 year old spoiled brats usually from rich families) sent the Dean of the university of Athens to the Intensive Care after hitting them on the head. No big deal. The funny thing is that the Dean was always himself against letting the police go inside. That’s what you get for having the “junta syndrome”.

– For the same reason, this year when some protesters managed to bring down a policeman from his motorcycle, the police, since it was socialist goverment, charged from all directions with the motorbikes and arrested a buch of them. Also one was moderately injured, but since we don’t have a conservative goverment, the media didn’t make much fuss about it, if this had happened with conservatives, it would have fueled mass protests about police brutality, marches, media throwing fuel into the fire, etc. Of course we had the usual small left party accusing about police brutality, but what can you do…

From you official trade deficit you have to deduct the money that German tourists spend in Greece. Given the low trade (in total numbers), that should compensate a bit.

My point isn’t to say who’s earning more. It was that the euro zone isn’t a charitable institution nor is Greece someone that only receives. I don’t know how numbers will end up down if you count all possible factors with Germany (counting in tourism, weapons sales, the fact that greek companies are smaller and are bought off easily by german ones, etc). I know one thing. Greece in total has a trade deficit which for her size is huge.

December 18, 2008

Greek trade deficit lower, Eurostat reports

Greece’s trade deficit reached 27.3 billion euros in the first nine months of 2008, a reduction of 1.6 billion euros relative to the same months in 2007, according to figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday.

Greek exports came to 12.9 billion euros and imports were 40.2 billion euros, so that Greece’s trade deficit was reduced from 28.9 billion euros to 27.3 billion euros in the past year.

This corresponds to a 1 percent increase in Greek exports (from 12.7 billion euros in 2007) and a 3 percent decrease in imports (from 41.6 billion euros in 2007).

Greece has the fourth-largest trade deficit in the European Union, after the UK with the highest trade deficit of 91.7 billion euros, Spain and France.

http://www.greekamericanchamber.com/Greek-Trade-News.77.0.html

This, because exactly, Greece is largely a services economy, the products circulating, are largely foreign, we just trade them and use the purchase power of the euro, to import.

This is IMHO also one (the other is that the more the better) of the reasons of why the northern countries, didn’t limit the eurozone to them. Northern Europe has producing countries. The euro today would be even stronger and this would mean even more trouble to export outside northern europe.

Smaller, weaker countries entering the euro-zone, are the perfect consumers. Because when you have a lead and you ‘re also bigger and established power, a smaller newcomer, can’t compete with the same rules with you. For example, you won’t be seeing an Irish car anytime soon. It’s close to impossible for Ireland to compete with Germany in sectors where Germany has a lead and established markets. That’s why Ireland went for new technologes, but as it was shown in USA too, that is a very volatile way to count on economy growth if a crisis hits you.

To put it simply, the EU and euro zone, does have strategical advantages, specially if you look at future economic opponents, but doesn’t change the balance inside. The richer countries give a push to the weaker ones, who gain in growth rates. But it’s not a bad deal for the rich countries either. In the long run, you are sure you have set rules in a wide area, you can easily buy off businesses in the smaller countries, which means, that any profit is money coming back to your pockets and in the long run, you find consumers for your products.

For example, say that EU cofunds 40% of a new highway in Greece. Greece gets a highway easier, its trade is done faster, it helps grow economy. But Greece isn’t a big producer. It’s a big consumer. EU companies will partecipate alone or in joint venture in the construction. They may be in the company that will be collecting tolls for the next 30 years (Hochtiff is in the Athens airport for 20 or 30 years , i m not sure), it also facilitates your own exports to Greece which is consuming and to the countries around Greece and allows your products to get shipped faster from greek harbours to other Med destinations, asia, ME.

In the long run, it’s not a bad deal at all. You give an 1-off fund and take a long term benefit.

That’s why the EU and euro zone exists.

Countries that could possibly give you more run for your money in the long run and give you stiff competition, are big countries. Poland could be a competitor in the future maybe. Turkey is a very appetizing market, but also a country that has the resources and will to become a competitor. Which is one of the reasons you and France have conflicting feelings about it. But i think the “appetite” will win, for the fact that many energy pipelines pass through Turkey and the more you can control your energy routes, the better for you.

Anyways, bashing Greece these days is justified, which doesn’t mean I wouldn’t prefer to praise Greece for performing above average economically. We are all “Euro”, so the downfall of the one also affects the other. Do something about it!

I have been bashing Greece for years, but to no avail… I have hoped that the EU would have forced Greece to make structural reforms earlier, but unfortunately, EU is plagued by the same bureaucratic rigid protocol which doesn’t allow for any euro flexibility either. Practically it’s all about figures. As long as you are within A-, you ‘re OK. The EU should have said “You ‘re in A-, but you have structural problems, your budget measures aren’t OK, change them”.

You can see that the EU herself has bureaucratic problem, from the fact alone that some immediately jumped to say “Ok, you do wages cuts like the Irish”. The greek economy isn’t like the Irish. The problem isn’t to cut wages for 1 year. There isn’t even the need to cut wages. It’s a services economy, there need to be money circulating around. If you cut too much wages, the economy will freeze. In a way, the greek economy is more like the US one than the german. And greek banks didn’t get blown up like the irish did.

One of the measures the goverment will likely anounce on Monday, is the freezing of salaries over 2000 euros (they denied the rumours about freezing all), but from every 5 public servants to go to pension, only 1 new will be hired. That’s more important for Greece than gaining temporarily 150 mln euros from not giving a 1,5% raise, because the public sector in Greece is overblown. There are too many people not needed.

In the same way, they will anounce new measures about health costs. EU data show that Greece is spending each year 1 bln euros on unneeded drug prescriptions.

They will also raise taxes on cigarettes, beverages, maybe oil.

They say they prepare a “tax evasion safari”, with restructuring of the services, you will have to declare all your property, including your bank accounts and this will act as “criteria” which will forcefully make you pay more than the income you declare, there is talk of even ceizing bank accounts if you don’t declare them, put VAT on self-employed professionists, make tax deductions based on collection of receipts, so that the consumers will have incentive to demand receipt from a lawyer for example (today they give 1 receipt every 100 clients).

There is even a plan to do something similar to Italy. More or less give a limited year amnesty to bring back to Greece money in foreign bank accounts.

On Monday we ‘ll know for sure. On paper it sounds good, we ll have to see how it goes on practice.

I am concerned that when I see German economic growth and budget numbers (which are ugly), but still we seem best performing nation (of the legacy nations of the Euro zone, not considering some smaller countries with impressive economic and budget numbers, like Denmark for example).

That’s because northern countries have resolved long before the issues we have and you have more discipline. In Germany if you were in the position of Greece, your ecologist party wouldn’t wildly cheer if you ‘d lose 1 bln euros from hunting income. In Germany you wouldn’t have a parliament party encouraging 500 anarchists to burn Berlin.

As i said, Greece has structural problems, but they are not irreversible and there are money , plenty actually, that you can dig and take to correct the situation. For example, if Sweden was to find herself in the figures of Greece today, they would be probably in irreversible situation, since they don’t have the amount of wasted resources or inefficiency that we have.

Said that, as i said, the greek problem, while real, is also overblown, to cover other weaknesses. If you noticed, Soros when asked about Greece, also said that UK won’t be allowed to default either… UK? How did he come with that idea? Fortunately, it’s not under the news highlights, because Greece is and the markets don’t look at UK, they look at Greece. For the same reason, Spanish stockmarket has fallen after the greek news. Guess why. Italy’s figures aren’t exactly heatlhy either, but it has to do with reputation. If you are Greece, the markets trust you less than someone in G8.

@ Sens

I have tried in the past to explain the same things, i am already tired to have to repeat myself, but just for the sake of having a bit of concentrated information for future reference :

– Greek politicians would love nothing more than to abolish completely the greek army and the defence expenditure. They would win the elections easier and that’s all the care about in the past 20 years. They would sell their mothers to win the elections. They are trying… They reduced conscript period, size of army, they try to buy weapons that require low manpower, they don’t let the defence budget to directly follow the growth rate of the economy but have stabilized it for some years now and possibly want to “streamline” it to bring it further down.

– The NATO has been neutral or pro-turkish in the last 40 years, because for USA Turkey is always more important. There are continuous diplomatic rows inside NATO about which you have no idea, the most recent one is done as we speak and regards CAOC 7.

– It’s not that we don’t have our own analysts that know the situation better than you or me. The problem is that you *think* you know everything there is to know about the background of greek-turkish relations, while in reality you know very little.

– In 1996, the EU parliament took more than 3 weeks to come with a resolution giving right to Greece.

– If the EU/NATO steps in after 1 week of negotiations and shadow diplomacy where the pro-US block will be trying to support Turkey, France will be trying to support Greece, some others will be neutral, etc and in the meantime, Greece is armed like Cyprus, there won’t be much that Greece will be able to do in a negotiations table other than unconditional approval of all turkish demands. When you negotiate, if you have lost already all the eastern half of the Aegean and Thrace, your navy and airforce are annihilated and the enemy has sufferend virtually no damage, that isn’t much of a negotiation. It’s a surrender. Because the EU /NATO will step in, eventually, but to do what? Fight Turkey? No. Force negotiations.

– You underestimate the economical and geostrategical importance of Turkey for both EU and US/NATO. I will remind you , that a few days ago, expired the EU 3 year deadend for Turkey to open her ports to Customs union with Cyprus and all EU did was to pressure Cyprus not to freeze Turkey’s accession. I will also remind, that the UN resolutions were asking for one united state and retirement of all foreign forces from Cyprus, at the end, we ended up with the Annan plan, predicting 2 equal states in a loose federation, with the indefinite presence of 2 foreign (plus the british) troops on the island. Not to mention that it was in violation of half of the EU legislation. Well, even the EU was sponsoring as beautiful this plan, the US even paid money to sponsor the “yes” campaing. Because nobody cares about legality or not. They want to get rid of the problem and that’s it. Also when Cyprus at the end froze 8 negotiations chapters, everyone to attack the pesky Cypriots. When France froze 4, nobody mentioned it and of course no EU media dared attack France for doing so (the french 4 chapters are still frozen).

– Turkey may be big, but is not crazy, under normal circumstances. Turkey respects brute force. Has also shown that doesn’t like risks. Prefers crisis in periods when Greece has internal problems (in 1996 the greek PM was in the hospital (dying) and a new PM of 3 days was in office). Now Turkey may win 100 times out of 100 with Greece, but today it’s not like WWII where you can flatten houses (you can allow yourself honest mistakes, but up to a limit) , can fight until the end or you invade someone that most likely will not have the reach to scratch you. For example, it is easy even for USA to go bring democracy to Iraq, knowing very well, that not only your opponent is severely weaker, but also that he can’t strike back. Even USA would be more hesitant to export democracy here and there, if say Iraq was next to New York and the US administration was aware that , they could win, but they wouldn’t avoid getting some SCUDs on US soil too.

The problem comes under “abnormal” circumstances. In Europe you don’t get daily updates about the “Ergenekon” story like we do. Amongst other things, in 1996 crisis, the minister of foreign affairs of Turkey Oymen, had received from Italy a file saying that Italy has transferred the disputed island to Greece. Oymen, hid this information from his cabinet, because he wanted a clash with Greece, which would invigorate kemalism. Lately it was written that the “deep state” apart funding anti-greek websites, even not concerning Turkey, but FYROM for example, was also trying to raise tensions with Greece and Armenia, in order to bring down the islamists. In this plan, it was also included the plan to assassinate the greek Orthodox Ecoumenical Patriarch who resides in Turkey. Of course they planned to assassinate Erdogan too, but they didn’t achieve that either.

Yesterday, the turkish supreme court banned the only remaining pro-kurdish party, with the accusation of being in collaboration with PKK. It also prohibited to some of its members, including Leyla Zana to partecipate in any new or other party for 5 (i think) years. This can fuel new unrest in Turkey, with unpredictable political conseguences.

– I personally have deep respect for turkish policy, because it is steady, extremely patient and never changes despite changes in goverments. And since they know their geopolitical importance, they are not shy of conflicting with anyone. From time to time, Turkey has done some weird statements and moves against EU countries, that no other candidate country would dare make (including embargo on french companies from turkish tenders and boycott of french products). To USA they said “no” to bombing Iraq using turkish airspace. Lately, the new neo-othoman model has changed against Israel in its rhetoric. Still, Obama went to warm up their relations, because he needs Turkey in the area.

– Said that, the greek policy is bankrupt, recently the head of the bigger greek think tanks admitted that our “gesture of good will” of letting Turkey in EU and supporting her bid (we even lobbied in Austria in Turkey’s favour once) , hoping that democratization would make Turkey accept international law or Courts hasn’t produced any effect, on the contrary since last January flying over inhabited islands has become customary, clashes between coastguards and fishermen are also ordinary. He said that we need to device a “Plan B”, but he was not in a position yet to make a complete proposal of what our policy should be. Basically, our problem isn’t limited in politicians, it is also spread to analysts. First they sold us this “democratization” theory, now they tell us that didnt’ work and haven’t figured out what to do.

– In the meantime, Turkey takes her time, has no haste. Because while in Greece all parties are eager to decrease military spending and do so, Turkey raises her expenditures with no popular discontent about that. You can arrive to a point where you can then make the other side give in to your demands, without firing a shot.

For me, in the long run, Greece has only 2 options:

1) Stop trying to keep any kind of balance of power in normal equipment, go only for weapons that can strike inside Turkey. This would be much better deterent than trying to compete in numbers.

2) Support EU political and defence integration. If EU arrives to the point to start seeing greek borders and resources as of EU, Greece has solved her problem.

With this, i end for this year and is probably the last time i comment on Sens’ posts about Greece.

Quite, I was actually going to ask you about defencenet’s “allegiance” but it slipped my mind. I saw Boeing’s F-18 presentation was given a fairly good presentation (it’s not LM 🙂 ),

It is also not going to be selected unless everything comes upside down or Obama does something spectacular (i think Boeing has an industry in his originating state?).

but the coverage of the PM’s speeches seems pretty one-side (‘all our finance problems are from New Democracy’ – right, who was running things just before them?).

Yes, the New Democracy are the conservatives. The “it’s all their fault” is a returning pattern. Each time that the economy is in deep trouble that’s what you say.

On Greek economy/budget, it really seems like ending evasion and corruption will really help things from ‘both ends’: getting more tax revenue AND ‘revealing’ more of actual economy would put budget deficits as % of GDP in a more realistic light.

Yes, i wrote about it in the main forum.

It sounds like none of the exercise aircraft/ ships responded at all, only nearby jets ‘normally’ tasked for air defense/police responded. Clearly, French/NATO forces directly responding would be a new game… Not to over-state things.

Ah, you mean about the uninvited guest! From what it said, there wasn’t a dogfight, only an approach at 2 miles and then flew back. This has to do with rejection of NOTAMs, it has happened this month previously, i am too tired to search them.

Personally, I think the Greek PM giving such speeches to Cyprus Parliament is a bad idea,
given just about everybody thinks the Cypriots are scam artists (v/v Annan plan), but I have a question for you:

Ah, it wasn’t the greek PM (he was in Brussels). It was the MoD. You mean this?
http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9910&Itemid=40

What wrong did he say? It’s the usual political sauce. I suspect you have a google translation error.

Yes, Cypriots were scam artists, because they were supposed to vote in a referendum , but they had to vote “yes”. Of course, then why make them vote in the first place? Just force them… The Anan (no.5) plan was a plan revision made to allow Turkey to enter the EU negotiations talks without any hindering.

Everyone knows the Anan plan (exactly because the alibi had to be widely known). The fact that for 40 years the Turkish Cypriots (that today are in 60% Turkish settlers btw) and Turkey were replying “There’s nothing to solve. First you recognize us as state, then we talk” (=once you recognize me as state, i will have no reason to “unify” with you…), is something nobody knows. We have slided from UN resolutions asking restitution of status quo ante to –> bicomunal federation–> bicomunal, bizonal federation –> confederation–> one state with 2 constituting states in a loose federation.

The Anan plan was so good for Cyprus, but didn’t even cross the mind of someone to propose it for Kosovo. Why? It was such a good plan!

Anyway, here’s the US view on this (of course there’s no mention about Kissinger or “**** your constitution”):

http://www.filefront.com/15112917/Cyp.zip

If you ask me, it leaves much aside and US is always pro-turkish, Anan plan included, but it shows a bit of history “before the Anan”. The fact that nobody has ever heard of it, is because only the Anan plan was important to become alibi for Turkey and give the Greek Cypriots a plan that could never vote.

Today, my personal take on this, is that Turkey has won, it is better probably to go to 2 separate states and that’s it, since there are too many strings attached , with the guarantors remaining they will never be safe and they have a big culture problem in that the GCs don’t feel the Turkish settlers as “Cypriots”, they regard them of a 3rd cultural entity.

Your posts motivated me to read some more on “grey area” dispute and so forth, and really the only semi-valid ‘interest’ I could detect from the Turkish side is their interest for free passage to Mediterranean in case Greece decided to extend territorial waters to it’s maximum, which would block international water passage thru Aegean. Of course, there’s no reason Turkey can’t navigate thru it’s coastal waters from Bosporus (and they have Med. ports anyways), but I can see Turkey’s interest in this:

The law of the sea predicts innocent passage. It’s not just Bosporus or Dardanelles, if you look at North Sea, between Denmark, Germany and Scandinavia, if i remember correctly, you have to pass through national water. In any case, the law allows to object in court and find a different settlement.

My question is, has Greece considered this aspect, and considered enacting a regime akin to the Bosporus regime, or simply permanently renouncing it’s right to extend waters in the ONE OR TWO island passages that would block international water passage? Because it really only seems like one or two island passages where full territorial water extension would block internatinal water passage from Bosporus to Mediterranean (ignoring coastal water passage for Turkey). Obviously, considering this would only make sense in the context of Turkey ending the other dubious disputes.

Greece has signed the law and has said that reserves the right to apply it at the appropriate time. Thoughts there are various, recently on TV i think an analyst had presented a scenario of expansion for different lenght in different places. But without an agreement or court i don’t see it happening.

Other than that, the Turkish position just seems wierder and wierder with more research, i.e. the floated notion that air-space doesn’t necessarily correspond with surface territorial soverignty: Fine, that COULD excuse marine violations, but why the AIR-SPACE violations of the Greek air-space they already recognized when territorial air-space was set-up in 50’s? (Obviously, they don’t give a ****, I’m talking merely on level of logical consistency)

You must understand that there is pretext and there is real cause for everything. Also, the series of disputes are connected to each other, not independent or at least, not all of them. If you put the puzzle pieces together, you will find that all comes down to operational control of the eastern half of the Aegean. It started about the oil, etc. Turkey’s position on airspace, in a court and based to the law of sea (which hasn’t signed) would be valid, if it wasn’t that the same law says that if you have the right to expand to 12nm water, then you must do the same with air. But this isn’t the issue. The issue is to dispute the status quo. Which is also why in 1974 they declared the eastern half of Athens FIR to be part of Istanbul FIR and in this month they rejected a NOTAM about Greece having responsibility for SAR withing Athens FIR and why they refuse to respond to greek aviation authorities. As some of our analysts have said, in a court, we wouldn’t get in everything from our initial position, but in total, we would gain more than today.

And what the Turkish PM says “you prefer 600.000 over 70mln” is a very non legal argument, but a very realistic one.
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/2927/13997831.png

EU pressured Cyprus not to veto Turkey and in exchange to get Customs union . Turkey didnt’ apply it. The EU gave 3 years time to Turkey to apply it. The expiration date was this December and as always the entire EU backed up her member state 😀

http://euobserver.com/15/29116

Mr. Bildt between 70mln and 600k had no dilemmas.

Anyway, i think if you search somebody else has posted more details on this, but i can’t find it and i am too tired to reply more on this… I promiced myself to take Xmas vacations from AFM as of tomorrow.

Merry Xmas (anticipated).

What are you on about? My post was polite & factual. It did not merit this childish nonsense in response.

Yes, your post was polite and factual, still so easily to answer it anyway. I am a bit tired of having to explain the obvious or trying to talk seriously in here on what happens to Greece. It’s is like me coming to your hometown and me taking you with a greek tour guide and telling you “allow me to show you around your town, my greek map has everything we need”.

I apologise for picking on you and i quit. I have ruined enough my Xmas mood.

You know, I’ve been wondering about that. With an euro priced at 1.5 US $ and rising, maybe the ECB found the perfect plan with us. They will announce something bad about Greece every couple of months and the will drive the ratio back to 1.47, like they did this time. Cheaper and more exports for Germany. And we are left with paying the spreads…

I think this scenario today is improbable, for the issue because of the timing. The global markets are still very touchy and still recovering. Everyone remembers how the global stock markets were falling even though there was no tangible reason. It was simply hysteria-panic. Also, the EU zone economies are better than Greece, but half of them are in breach of the stability pact too , with some at over 105%. All this means, that if you try to pull such a stunt , with the current climate, you may not be able to stop it when you wish.

Look here what no politician says (about the other widows and possible domino) but Soros mentioned today:

http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/7530/85817074.png If you know how Soros became billionaire, this says much.

One factor that precipitated the events for Greece, was certainly the panic after Dubai. That some are and will take advantage from Greece’s position to make gains in Athens stockmarket and in CDS gain, it’s natural. We gave them the opportunity. But as usually happens with speculative games, sometimes you are aware that someone is playing you, when it’s too late to react and that’s why some world financial speculators have become rich. I don’t think the euro-zone leaders aren’t aware of such a risk.

On the contrary, there are articles in euro-zone press, that are almost celebrating the situation of Greece, as if they weren’t written by some professional that reports news, but by some forum member here or some teenager. This is as moronic as if the US newspapers would come out to almost celebrate Goldman Sachs going belly up or if one US State was in big trouble. You are in a currency union with someone and you enjoy it… Like if you were in a business and one of your partners went broke and you would cheer for it… What i want to say is, that if i were someone else, i ‘d also say “Greece had it coming, they need to get their act together, NOW”. But to arrive to the point to read from supposedly professionals almost joyful poisonous articles, is just plain moronic and shows how people haven’t yet grasped the idea of the EU not even in a monetary level.

By the time they will grasp it, the Chinese will come. For our foreign friends, the chinese COSCO giant, has leased recently a large container area at one Piraeus harbour, which will use as base for launching chinese exports in Europe en masse. Ready or not, they ‘re coming.

Two things will happen.

1) Either the Europeans will start to think as Europeans and become a global economic player that will act as one (about the political i have my doubts).

2) Or, our children will start learning chinese instead of english as first foreign language. Personally even though i am fond of ideograms and have respect for chinese culture, i am too old to learn it, so i ‘d prefer to stay with english.

The clock is ticking.

In any case, enough for me now.

Aspis-

I take it dynamic energy = potential energy and cinetic energy = kinetic?

I think so… Sorry for troubling you with wrong terms, unfortunately i didn’t learn the terms in english, i thought they should be similar to greek. At least the kinetic is…

It is basically the Lavoisier principle, even though in an aircraft much of the energy is lost to attrition and drag. But in essense, yes, when you climb, you gain altitude, but you lose velocity. You trade your kinetic energy provided by your engine to gain altitude. When you go to lower altitude, you get there faster, because you trade your potential energy for kinetic. For the same reason if you want to regain speed after a climb where your engine can’t make it anymore, to avoid stall , you must bring your nose down.