If the European Central Bank, starts issuing Eurobonds to finance Greek debt, then we must forget about buying anything not made in the Eurozone.

The Typhoon has been the favourite for years. In Greece there is a tendency to oversimplify or overcomplicate everything in a conspiracy like model.

1) I don’t believe that the ECB will issue Eurobonds, unless it sees an imminent danger for the euro.

2) The eurobonds wouldn’t be “greek-specific” nor they are “free” money. They are simply a way to borrow liquid money at lower interest rates then the greek bonds themselves. However, in the recent issue of greek bonds, there was no problem in selling the bonds. On the contrary, the request was x2 than the target.

3) If eurobonds automatically mean Typhoon, i guess we will soon see Typhoons with irish and portuguese colours too? Now that’s good news for EADS! “All the exports that you would like to have, but you were afraid to ask!” :p

4) Despite the fear and destruction that is customary in Greece from the media, in pre-electoral periods, the greek economy isn’t at the brink of collapse, nor its current borrowing rates are dramatic (there is much worse out there, both in EU countries out of the euro-zone) and outside EU. Let’s say that if the greek sovereign credit rating collapses to the point that is unable to borrow at acceptable rates, most likely we will have a global doomsday before that happens.

Please see:
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/2792/99247829.png

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116738-europe-in-fear-of-sovereign-bond-defaults-it-s-even-worse-for-emerging-markets

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/2/7/business/3207456&sec=business

We would probably save more money, by simply freezing every new defence procurement if things were so desperate, rather than spending billions and wait for the eurobond, that could save us what… between 1-2% over our current rates?

The Typhoon has been favourite since PM Simitis era, who had made a public anouncement about it. Mixing in this the eurobonds, is imo, the usual greek way of complicating things. Why should we thank Germany with Typhoon and not by accepting immediately the 1st U214 at full price too? What should Ireland and Portugal buy from Germany?

And today our FM met Hillary. Next month the PM will meet Obama. If Obama appears more positive than Bush towards greek positions, then what? We will deny to buy some F16s , because ECB may issue eurobonds?

P.S.: I repeat, that IMO, there won’t be any eurobonds in the short future and this is actually a good thing for us. It’s an occasion for the goverment to start cutting the money wasted in bureaucracy and inefficiency of the public sector. There is no real need for eurobonds. The wasted money in the pubblic sector, is x3 the amount we would gain from getting the ability to borrow liquid money at 1-2% lower than our current rate. It is only waiting for someone to collect it. And as usual, in Greece, the politicians work better, when there is no other way out, than to do what must be done.

F-16/60 aren’t exactly cheap, and have a very limited userbase. Block 52+ would make more sense as an economy solution.

Yes, and they are supposed to have a good differences with the existing F16s in the inventory (beyond the radar), which pose the question “is it worth the trouble”? Why not buying Typhoon directly, if we opt for the more expensive solution?

But I guess the HAF would like to have an answer to Turkish F-35. And somehow I can’t see the F-16/52 could qualify as such.

By the time the Turks will have 20 F35 (around 2018 at best), we will have the time to respond.

Later on, the F-35 is a given I think. Would be a wonderful replacement for the Phantoms, pretty much same weight and size (and similar cockpit visibility :p).
At this point, Greece could decide about F-16 and M2K replacement. F-35, Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen, Neuron or even PAK-FA.

Yes, it is almost certain that at some point we will order F35. The question is how many and this will depend on how good it is. If the eurocanards prove to be good in handling it and at a comparable price, we shouldn’t buy too many F35s.

@Aspis, No, I’m not French, I’m Greek but I would like some French insight in what I’m talking about.

Damn, i wish i knew this before making my long speech! :p
I thought i knew who the greek members were in the forum, apparently not! 🙂

I remember reading somewhere that France wants to build a new naval base in Cyprus. Sorry, I don’t remember where, I maybe completely wrong. But if I’m right…

Dassault wants to sell Rafales.
France wants a naval base in Cyprus and sell Rafales. That base will need air support.
Greece wants a new aircraft plus the upgrade of the older Mirages to -5Mk2

So, we can have a package deal where:

Greece puts all the Mirages on sale.

Cyprus buys them and upgrades the older ones to -5Mk2. If 40+ planes are too much for Cyprus, you can find a buyer for some -5Mk2. Dassault has a nice profit from the upgrade.

France builds it’s base in Cyprus but doesn’t send any fighter aircrafts to support it. Instead, the newly formed Cyprus Air Force (CAF) is based in that same base. France pays some kind of rend (maybe the logistic support) and in return CAF provides air support for the French. If Turkey wants to bomb CAF on the ground, then it must bomb a French base.

Greece, has the money from the new fighter purchase, plus the money from the sale, plus any money stored for a Mirage upgrade. We are talking about around 80 aircraft. Dassault already gained from the Cyprus upgrade, so it gives all the things Greece wants (AESA, Iris-T, HMS, a better engine). Maybe Greece can be a full time partner in those parts.

Everybody is happy.

PS, To any Greek readers, no I’m not Antreas . The matter has been discussed to the death in the Greek forums. I just want to get some French and Cypriot opinions in something like that.

Well, all this could be maybe a plausible scenario, but as you ‘ve seen, it’s not going to happen. Your scenario requires certain things, like:

– The Cypriots willing to have their own airforce and a french base.
– The French wanting to have a base in Cyprus.
– Greece willing to part with the Mirage and take Rafale.
– Someone to conceive this scenario.

From what we know, neither Sarkozy nor our politicians thought to propose such a scenario. And i once more repeat, that i believe, that simply Cyprus isn’t interested in having its own airforce. Not at the current political moment.
Do you remember what happened when the Cypriots built in the 90s the military airfield and base? They didn’t say “now we can build our airforce and navy”. On the contrary, there were calls, for a HAF squadron to be permanently stationed on Cyprus. Which of course didn’t happen. Why would they change their mind now, when they are focused on a solution that will probably mean the dismantlement of the National guard?

Yesterday i was googling to find their defence budget. At around 1998, it was 350 mil. $. Today it’s 200 mil euros. Which given the exchange rate, is about the same figure, a bit less. Their GDP has increased in the meantime. So they are practically decreasing their defence expenditure as GDP percentage. I don’t see them in a mood for improving their defence capabilities with an airforce.

Scenarios are all good, but reality says, it’s between F16 and Typhoon right now. It could be 1 of the 2 or both.

As for our french friends, i doubt they have ever heard of the possibility to have a base in Cyprus. I haven’t heard about it for months either and i think it’s something that nobody is pursuing.

@Aspis, thank you. That was the answer I was seeking.

If I remember right, France wants to build a naval base in Cyprus. So, you can put that new air force in that base. It can also provide air support for that base with the French paying some rent for it. After all, the planes are the same ones they use. You have an interesting scenario of Turkey having to attack France if they want to bomb the Cypriot air force on the ground. Sounds very European to me.

I am not familiar with that french wish. (I don’t know, are you French by any chance? In that case, you may have read something i haven’t). I don’t read too often cypriot press (the greek press doesn’t spend too much time into rumours or details of things that happen in Cyprus), but i think there has been a thought of deploying a detachment of french aircrafts in the airbase the Cypriots have. But i haven’t heard of anything new for months. You know, such rumours, are sometimes a political movement, to press or provoke worries to the other side and press for a resume of negotiations… Personally i would support a french presence or aircrafts/ships in Cyprus, but they have their own goverment…

The probability of a new hostility in Cyprus, is very low, for the period that Turkey is still interested in becoming a EU member. The possibility that Turkey becomes disechanted with an entrance in EU at some point, is also an existing scenario, but for the future, which will force Cyprus to review her defence posture and policy. Right now, Cyprus is more betting on a solution and using EU as political shield.

But, in a hypothetical scenario, where Turkey would resume hostilities in a distant future, i don’t expect anyone to help Cyprus. Even the presence of french aircrafts or ships, would either mean that the Turks would avoid such targets, or the french aircrafts departing for a more safe enviroment. In 1974 there were British on the island, not only they didn’t do anything to stop the Turks, but according to testimonies from Cypriots, they supported logistically and with intelligence the turkish invasion.

The only help in which Cyprus may hope for, is from Greece. Which though, will be in the limit of possible. Meaning, it is improbable to see something different than some aircrafts and submarines. We will have our hands full in the Aegean and sending ground material by ship, will be something risky. Ironically, Cyprus offers more to Greece in such a scenario, than Greece offers to Cyprus. Cyprus is a form of diversion for us, that will bind some turkish resources, so the more they hold, the better for us… Sad but true IMO.

I thought the reason HAF bought the M2K was to have the ability to fly something that wasn’t reliant on American stuff.. especially in the case of a conflict with heavy US weapons user, Turkey.

I don’t know if the French would block weapons sales or restrict them in a conflict, but its likely the US would get involved in the conflict (both on HAF and TuAF’s case).

Also.. what if the Turks also end up buying the Typhoon and the JSF!?

Yes, one of the reasons of the M2000 purchase was exactly that. And that the Turks don’t have it and has some very interesting characteristics as an aircraft. The US has in the past used arms sales as a means of political pressure against Greece. Same for spare parts and release of some weapons systems. If it depended on USA, we would have nothing similar to SCALP EG now. There are various similar examples.

What if the Turks buy both the Typhoon and F35 too… Good question. In fact this was a strong point in favour of the Rafale. If we buy Typhoon in the meantime, it will mean, that we will have to act in some ways. Numbers of each type can be an answer. The Turks have tied themselves in the F35 for 100 pieces. Also, politically Turkey doesn’t trust the europeans so much. Another part of our answer could be with more SAMs. It’s a continuous cat and mouse game. The problem is, that we can’t always buy french only to have something different than the Turks. This “something” most be better at least in some sectors. Is the Rafale better than the Typhoon in A2A or the F35 in A2G? If not, then the Rafale can’t be the answer. Diversification only for the sake of diversification doesn’t make sense. The Mirage does have specific advantages over the F16 in air combat, so it made perfectly sense buying it.

Eventually, our policy, must be directed towards bringing Turkey to a diplomatic solution, through EU process or , in case this becomes impossible, support further european integration, in which greek defence matters, will also be european defence matters. Until then, we will have to be able to present deterent to Turkey. Which means, convincing them, that , no matter what the final result maybe, their losses in case of war, in terms of infrastructure, economical damange, political damage and war material and men, will be too high to justify any eventual gain. Which, isn’t impossible to do for the medium term future, while keeping a reasonable defence expenditure. Think that it took them 1 month, in 1974, to take 40% of a Cyprus with a deteriorated, unexperienced and badly armed cypriot national guard which was in complete disarray, being in the middle of a coup and that this still haunts politically Turkey up to day. Greece can cause them much more serious trouble and one thing is for sure, that this time, their civilians and soldiers, will also be in the receiving end of a bomb, just for a change. Bombing a small island that has no means of retaliation against your own country’s economy in one thing. Attacking someone that can hit your 2 main economical cities (Istanbul and Smyrne) is totally different. And soon, with the FREMM, we will have 1000 km reach, using SCALP Naval. Not even Ankara will be safe or their Airforce Command Base at Eski Sehir.

Concerning F-16, Rafale and Typhoon, how long will these be expected to remain in service if purchased?

Based in past experience, i would say, at least 30 years? Think that we still have upgraded F4s flying.

How long are these types expected to remain available for any additional orders?

I am not sure i understand this question, but availability for orders is i suppose something that depends on EADS.

I guess that F-16 has the shortest assured production life. While there may be a very large number in service, what are the chances of future technologies being developed for them 5 or 10 years down the line, especially as they cease to be front line fighters in their home country?

Not many, that’s for sure. But still, the latest models are better than their turkish counterparts. So, there is still a little quality gain, coming at a cheap price and low risk. In the long run, the F16s will take inside HAF the places of A7 and F4. The Mirage2000 if not upgraded, will take TASMO as primary mission, the Dash-5 even if one day will become unfit for A2A duty, they can still be used for strategic strike with SCALP EG.

In contrast one can expect continued development of Rafale and Typhoon and integration of forthcoming weapons systems both of US and European origin. OK, integration of US weapons on Rafale is less likely than on Typhoon which makes me think that Typhoon would be a better choice for Greece in the long run, paticularly if the A2A role is seen as important. If I am correct Rafale is limited to Mica at the moment (I assume Greece would not want Magic) and Mica is very expensive I hear. Meteor will not be available for many years and it looks like they will cost about $US2 million each.

We already have Magic II missiles (about 300) and MICA (both EM and IR versions). But, the MagicII is not comparable to new IR missiles with high off-boresight ability, like Iris-T, Asraam, AIM-9X. Even in the case the Rafale had a JHMCS helmet, i doubt having the MagicII would help take advantage of it.

And our main stock, in quantities, is the Amraam. In the future, we will buy Meteor too. Having the big stock of Amraams only used by a 3rd gen aircraft and not by the 4th gen too, is a shame and waste of resources. We already have C-5s and i think we ordered C-7s too. Being able to use them on our 4th gen aircraft as well, makes much more sense.

The only weapon that the Typhoon can’t use in our arsenal is SCALP EG. But, being the same missile as the Storm Shadow, i think that if we wanted, it shouldn’t be difficult to adopt it to the Typhoon with a reasonable extra cost. Anything else, Mavericks, Paveways, HARMs, Amraams, Iris-T, will work without any sweat “out of the box”.

There is no doubt, that the future of HAF isn’t the F16s, but something amongst Typhoon, Rafale and F35. The question is how each ranks against the F35, how much does it cost and when we can take deliveries.

Speaking of deliveries, a press article, made a reference to some manufacturers, thinking of giving us some slots of their current production lines, in order to provide deliveries quicker. There wasn’t any further detail, but my guess is, the company in question, is most probably the EADS. I think that amongst the 4 partners, some would be happy to give us some T2 slots, given that not all seem eager to pay for new aircrafts.

Surely the HAF should look to the future, considering that any F-16s ordered now would only be available in another 3-4 years..AESA equipped F-16 Block 60s are definitely superior to the Block 52 or Block 52+ variant, so unless cost is a big issue, its a no-brainer on what new aircraft HAF should get (if it is a F-16 variant, that is).

The cost is fixed. I don’t know how much exactly it is, but there is a set limit. So, regardless of aircraft type, the expense will be the same. What will change, will be the number of aircrafts that one will be able to buy. This order isn’t expected to include more than 40 aircrafts.

The Block 60 has its advantages, but also introduces yet another block for HAF. The question that arises, is , does it worth the trouble? Or is it better to see this purchase as an interim solution and thus point more towards standardization, purchasing again B52+ Adv?

In my opinion the Typhoon makes most sense to Greece right now. It is so far the best available airframe to counter the shorter reaction times resulting from Turkish JSF introduction.
The aircraft is compatible with US weapons, as well as offering an independend source for a2a missiles and some a2g munitions.
Later on, they can decide to purchase more Typhoons, JSF or even Neuron (or what ever comes out of the programme) to replace M2K’s.

As you can see, ask 5 people, and you will get 5 different answers on what HAF must do. 🙂 I have been monitoring discussions in this forum and sometimes in greek fora and there is a constant war going on. I don’t wish to spark a new argument about it. I am for Typhoon as well. I don’t believe in the “silver bullet” called “F35”, that is supposed to do everything better than anyone. I also don’t believe that the export version will be as invisible as some fear. The F35 is also optimized for stealth in X radar band. This leaves many ground radars and SAM radars out. The Erieye itself, emits in the S band. The Typhoon also has an excellent radar and can use link16 and Pirate and unlike the F35, is born for air superiority.

And as you say, there is nothing we have that isn’t certified already on the EF. There is an issue that it’s economically counterproductive to send Typhoons for the daily interception missions against turkish F16s and maybe F35. The Typhoon consumes too much fuel. But, i suppose, we could send the F16s for that, and only sporadically send Typhoons, while keeping them more fit and ready in case of the “real thing”.

Most likely there will be an order of F35 in the future. What we don’t know is the quantity.

IMHO, there is no particular reason to rush things. We can start receiving some new aircrafts before 2015 and then, when the first F35 will start rolling in some airforces, we can see the real thing, free of the marketing hype and decide what is the best solution to follow.

I would say the opposite. They can buy F 16s block 52+ for the strike role and then replace them with the F 35 when it is out. Or do a split order of F 16s and Eurofighters the latter purely for air superiority.

See? Not even outsiders can agree on what we should do! 😀 Now think of what happens if you put 10 Greeks in 1 forum and talk about this! :p

I am not opposed to your proposal either. This, because the Typhoon is still T2. I would have prefered a T3. A split order of 10-20 F16 and 20 Typhoons has been proposed in a press article in the past. Well, as tens of other scenarios too, i am afraid. But it does have a sense. The F16 is a solution that allows rapid integration (there is nothing new to learn). A squadron of Typhoons T2, will give air superiority in quality against Turkish F16s and IMHO against F35 too, at least in WVR (and with use of link16 i doubt that the F35 will have a meaningful advantage over Typhoons). Then at 2015, we will have a more clear picture of the situation about the capability and cost of the F35. It will be years after 2015, before the Turks will have an entire, fully operational F35 squadron, so why rush ourselves in an expensive order that right now involves… guessing?

Also, less T2 now, mean, more T3 later. And less T2 to upgrade to T3.

As for strike missions, this isn’t a problem. HAF can divert whatever she likes into that. There will be F16s Block 30, Block 50D, 52+ and 52+ Adv before the next aircraft arrives. So there is only a matter of choice.

Again, thanks for your perspective Aspis.
I think we’re really of the same mind on the topic (how boring!)

Realistically, Dassault needs to realize that if Greece purchases Rafale NOW (domestic issues/elections possibly interfering with a timely contract, but giving Dassault more time to get their package together), they are almost certain to purchase more at some point down the line, like whenever Thales puts out their GaN AESA (2015?). So eating short term profits if necessary (like EADS did with Austria) and making sure that any “shortcomings” ARE addressed, is clearly in their interest, not the least that current sales are practically certain to mean future upgrades as well.

Yes, i am quite sure that if our goverment decides to continue the policy of not relying entirely on US sales, sooner or later, there will be a further order and/or upgrade of whatever european aircraft we choose today.

My main point was that Greece SHOULDN’T be forced to cover Iris-T certification by itself… How sympathetic the Iris-T consortium might be towards Dassault in this matter is unclear, as is how Dassault may factor Brasil/India/UAE into their economic justification, but the short-term Dassault profits should not take precedence over longer-term solidifying of their platform. Independent initiative from Dassault (separate from France/AdA) is obviously key here… And obviously this isn’t standard procedure for any airframer. (Dassault now holding 20% of Thales might be relevant if there’s further movement between Thales/Saab/Diehl, including the Iris-T portfolio in a missile consortium outside MBDA, letting Thales own two “race horses”.)

I wonder whether in Dassault, the decision makers ever think of such things. Probably not. After all, there MUST be a reason on why they still can’t get a contract.

It’s pretty obvious that Greece would LIKE Rafale to work out, Dassault just needs to present them with a solution that makes the French engagement work: A ‘sympathetic’ comprehensive approach to financing (by France), enabling both Rafale purchase (new or upgrading of F1s already built?) and M2K upgrades to Dash-5, is such a solution. How is helping a signifigant customer/partner solidify on your most recent and next most recent platforms a bad business decision? Likewise, Dassault isn’t really building M2K anymore: Facilitating UAE off-loading their Dash-5 if Greece wants them (per their option you mention) in addition to Rafales is a win-win scenario (rather, win-win-win for France/Greece/UAE).

I agree with you. Especially a “package” of upgrading all Mirage to Dash-5 and a “satisfactory” version of Rafale, could have been maybe the answer. Unfortunately, the price we paid for the upgrade of EGM to Dash-5 wasn’t “friendly” at all. It was actually the reason that made the goverment reluctant to upgrade all EGM at once.

As for the UAE Mirage 2000-9, i don’t know if HAF would be interested, but i think they also have differences compared to our Dash-5Mk2.

I don’t know, but I think that there is a flaw to your analysis. Countries buy weapons for self defence all over the world, but that doesn’t mean that they seek war. Greece has a lot of unresolved issues with Turkey and still arms itself to the teeth. Does that mean that Greece wants war with Turkey?

Please, understand that i am not politician, so i can’t know everything, i try to arrive to some conclusions, based on what i read in newspapers. Cyprus isn’t just any country. Its situation isn’t comparable to Greece either. For over 40 years, nobody remembered about it. As soon as Turkey had to enter negotiations for EU, by miracle, a solution plan was prepared. In the 40 years before that, Turkey was simply repeating that there is nothing to solve, since everything was solved in 1974. The 2002 plan, was made to provide an alibi for Turkey, the Cypriots had to reject it. This gave start to the blame game. Suddenly the Turks, sponsored by their allies, got the chance to blame Cyprus for not wanting a solution. The 40 years that preceded 2002 vanished in thin air. There was high political pressure from outside. All military manouvers that were conducted once a year between Greece and Cyprus were cancelled, after external pressure to Cyprus to show “good will” to create a more “friendly climate”. The defence buys also were reduced to practically zero. Always in the framework of good will, passages between the barricades of the 2 parts were opened.

Cyprus, unlike Greece, doesn’t hope anymore to deter Turkey. Hopes that since Turkey wants to enter the EU, it’s a golden chance to achieve the goal that for 40 years Turkey was refusing to talk about. Also, consider that in a case of solution, well, at least according to the last proposed plan, the Cypriot National Guard, will be dismantled and no military equipment is to remain on the island. Do you think, that for the politicians, when they hope for a solutions, it looks a good idea to buy for the first time aircrafts that they may have to give away soon after? Add to this, what i said about the doubts on their capability of maintaining an airforce.

Greece hasn’t lost land to Turkey, unlike Cyprus. Also Greece, unlike Cyprus, has more resources, doesn’t beg for a diplomatic solution for the last 40 years. Because, the Turks are already on Cyprus (there isn’t need for a beach head. They have military bases already on the island and one of the 2 main mountains, which is a good start for a swift attack). They even have their own military airfield. Supposing Cyprus will find the money to buy and maintain an airforce. How long will it last, when they have only 1 airfield and is easily bombarded by Turks? Will they be able to take off? Does Cyprus have an efficient early warning radar capable enough of detecting in time the TuAF?

Cyprus bets on the EU card to force a solution. They seem unwilling to pay for weapons that will cost much, with dubious results and that will give the message that they are “escalating” the tension on the island. The calls for reduced militarization are old, since the time the last plan was in the works:
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/1998/sc6538.doc.htm
It’s part of “confidence building measures”.

The difference between Cyprus and most other countries in the world, is that Cyprus is already occupied, war isn’t an option (only a desperate last resort) and any weapons are there mainly for psychological reasons and hopefully to delay a further attack, to give time to some help from Greece to arrive.

Greece says that it will go to war with Turkey if the later attacks Cyprus. So, it is completely fine for a 10M country to sustain a 300 plane air force, to defend a friend, but it is not viable for that 1M friend to keep a 30 plane air force?
24th February 2009 22:33

This, you should ask the politicians about. You can also ask why USA have arms embargo on Cyprus as a means of decreasing tensions, but this means, that Cyprus can’t buy anything american, while the Turkish army on the island, uses almost everything american, becayse not being “Cypriots”, aren’t bound from this “humanitary” arms embargo.

If Cyprus didn’t buy airfroce when the threat was bigger, i wouldn’t expect it now. It has to do with politics. Cyprus wanted to get in the EU, exactly so that can use it as political shield and deterrent.

So, you have a less that 1M island, of which already the 40% has hostile forces on it, very close to the enemy homeland, with the only hope to find a solution through the EU diplomacy, under US arms embargo and occasionally, european unofficial embargo. Most other countries, even fellow EU countries, see it as an annoying problem to get rid of, because it hinders Turkey’s accession.

The Cypriot defence budget itself, amounts to about 200.000.000 euros. (source: http://www.apogevmatini.gr/?p=11546) . Now, with this they must buy new aircrafts, spare parts, missiles, train pilots, technicians and of course maintain also the rest of the national guard (tanks, helicopters, artillery etc). Take 20 aircrafts, costing 30 mln euros each and it makes 600 mln euros (aka 3 times their annual defence budget), just to buy them. How will they maintain their rest of equipment for 3 years? They won’t buy them! Now more than ever!

Some in Greece complain about the Cypriots not spending enough in defence (Greece spends always more as a percentage of GDP). But this is a choice of their politicians and reflects the different realities.

The only chance to see again Cyprus considering an airforce, will be if they see that chances for a solution with Turkey, go astray. Then they will be forced to review their defence. However, i still doubt that they will buy an airforce. They will wait for HAF to go help them, in case of crisis. They prefer depending on HAF on that and putting their money on their pockets instead of the pockets of aircraft manufacturers.

Rafale: United Arab Emirates want a much powerful engine because Rafale M88 doesn’t have optimal thrust for hot countries like UAE, said french paper “Les Echos”.

The same “complaint” has been reported in greek defence magazine by greek pilots that flew with the Rafale. The Rafale is agile, but it could use more thrust.

its in the snecma tube for 2011….

Let us hope it will be in the UAE tubes by then too. If the Rafale had ready a more powerful engine, JHMCS and better US weapons integration, it would have many exports by now. I don’t mention the RBE2Aesa, because i take is as granted that it can be delivered if ordered now.

One good solution could be Cyprus. It could buy the whole Mirage fleet and upgrade the old ones. The money from those planes combined with the funds for the new purchase, should be enough for 60-80 new Rafales for HAF. The whole packet will be attractive to Dassault due to its size.

Theoretically, yes. Practically, unlikely. Cyprus is very small, their defence budget is very small (you can’t expect miracles from a population of about 750.000), they spend already much of it, only for maintaining their existing armaments. There is also the political part of the question. Even if accept that Cyprus is capable of buying and maintaining on her own expense the entire Mirage fleet, there is the political obstacle. Cyprus is trying to force Turkey into a solution, using Turkey’s EU accession procedure. Actually many countries that want Turkey in the EU, because of that, have suddenly remembered about the Cyprus issue, in the last years. If Cyprus was to acquire for the first time her own airforce, it would become in the hands of Turkey and her friends, yet another weapon, against Cyprus. They would use it, to present that Cyprus doesn’t want a peaceful solution. This is probably the reason, that Cyprus has practically stopped new purchases of any material worth mentioning in the last 6 years.

The issue of a Cypriot airforce has been debated for years in Greece. Some doubt that they can maintain more than 20 aircrafts on their own, others question even the wisdom of having few aircrafts so close to Turkey and in only 1 airfield (Cyprus has only 1 military airforce base, built in the 90s. Before that there was none), as that airfield can be bombarded very quickly by the Turks.

But bottom line is, today, more than ever, for political reasons, it is highly unlikely that Cyprus would be interested in an airfoce. They weren’t even interested in taking our MirageF1, which although not much, are better than nothing… The same applies for a “Cypriot navy”. Like with the airbase, they built a naval base, but mainly for the visit of greek ships. They don’t intend to make their own navy. They just have some coast guard vessels.