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uss novice

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  • in reply to: F-15 pilot opinion about the SU-30 MKI at Red Flag #2494260
    uss novice
    Participant

    For all those twits who have been itching to get GeorgeJ banned for saying it straight, they ought to know that he has been here a LOT longer than most of you. He also probably has forgotten more about the MKI than most us will ever know.

    Fact of the matter is, he does have a point. The so called aggressor pilot did not just make one slip, his entire debrief was one mishap after another. With all due respect, I sure hope he flies his a/c better than he gives his debrief.

    Like the man sez, if you think an MKI is going to be caught in a WVR fight with nothing but guns and an ACMI pod, you need to wake up a wee bit. The HMS/Sura/OLS – R73 combo should get the teens well before they know what hit them. The Raptor is in a league of its own, but the closer it comes, the less dangerous it gets, esp. considering it has no HMS, nor IRST nor guns.

    To conclude, the the one worthy thing that the man on youtube says (about the redflag mki vs eagle scenario) is that the ONLY way an MKI can lose to the eagle or viper in a WVR situation is that if the MKI pilot makes a rookie mistake. Could be said about an F-22 as well.

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: Super-Hornet in the IAF as MRCA #2473367
    uss novice
    Participant

    You have to consider that a Flanker will start using up fuel from the very beginning as well, once on a patrol quite some fuel is used. In a Typhoon the external fuel will be used so the reserves might be easily identical when the Typhoon drops the tanks.

    AND

    Ehm from where does the 4500 km range figure come from? The Su-27 had a range of 3680-4000 km on internal fuel that’s widely recognised. The Su-30MKI has the same fuel load, identical fuel consumption besides the engines, yet it is draggier and heavier. All sources I know give the of the Su-30MKI with 3000 km. What is the point about long endurance patrols?

    AND

    I highly doubt the Su-30 which is much heavier and draggier than the Typhoon yet using engines with similar or higher SFC and being stronger = more consumption will achieve a greater range than the Typhoon with similar fuel. It is just unrealistic wishthinking and I have no idea from where these data come, but they are nonsense.

    The data for the su-30 comes from sukhoi.org, fas.org and bharat-rakshak.com. before dissing whats written as nonsense, please try to understand it. I never said that an MKI will have greater range than a tiffy with similar fuel, the point I made is, an MKI will have greater range than a tiffy with a similar percentage of fuel carried (60%). IOW, while @ 60% fuel capacity, the EF-2000 will carry ~ 2600kg, the MKI lands up carrying ~ 5200kg+ of fuel. The range and therefore combat radii difference @ these weights is obvious – 3000km+ vs 1300km (range), 1500km vs 650km (combat radius). these calculatiions are of course, approximate and perhaps the tiffy has slightly better figures. Still not enough to match the MKI. Also remember the figures for the MKI are not in clean config, its carrying about 750kgs worth of missiles for this 3000km range! At full internal fuel, the MKI ought to be able to do over 5000km range (fwiw, wiki, fas and BR confirms this). Btw, the MKI carries 250kg more fuel than the vanilla su-27.
    this brings us to the point that the ef-2000 needs ~ 3X1000lt EFTs or full internal fuel (4900kg?) to match the MKI’s range @ 50-60% fuel. What does this do to the Ef-2000’s twr, drag coefficient and flight performance and RCS values (esp. if EFTs are indeed carried)? All of these are seriously compromised.
    So for the EF-2000 in terms of A2A you are always looking at a tradeoff. If it lugs the EFTs (giving it the option to drop ’em), it pays the price in terms of RCS, drag and TWR; if it carries full internal fuel, it pays the price in terms of TWR; if it doesn’t carry the additional fuel, it simply does’t match the MKI’s range/endurance.

    regards,
    USS.

    All OLS figures I see/saw give the 50 km/90 km figure but no of them specifies AB or non AB.

    Upgrading an aircraft with so much composites is almost impossible, except you built a new airframe. Many of the “upgrades” are indeed no upgrades but a new airframe. Most of your upgrades are done, where is the future potential. How much lighter is the Su-35 in reality, no data has been disclosed… CFTs are a possibility to increase range if required.

    in reply to: Super-Hornet in the IAF as MRCA #2473486
    uss novice
    Participant

    It seems like we won’t be coming to an agreement over this whole debate afterall :), which is good as it makes the world interesting. I would like to again point out the context I raised this issue with: namely that the EF is the best A-A performer available to the IAF including the MKI. Obviously in reference to the current FJs they operate and the ones in the MRCA competition.

    *I wasn’t comparing capabilities such as A-G, RECCE, SEAD, ANTI-SHIP etc. It was from a purely A-A standpoint.

    even so, considering that a bVR scenario is often a cat and mouse game, how is an EF-2000 supposed to match the flanker in terms of endurance? If it lugs tanks (which it will have to), it drastically loses the RCS, TWR, and flight performance advantages. If it ditches them, it does not have the endurance to dictate the fight. The flanker can simply disengage if the scenario is unfavourable and reengage when it is favorable. As of now the flanker carries more versatile A2A missiles than the tiffy (including passive homing r-27s iirc).

    suppose for sake of simplicity, the flanker carries 60% (normal) fuel load (5600 kgs) + 4 bvr aams + 2 wvr aams, it should have a Twr of about 1.0+. outfitted like this, it will probly have a combat radius of 1200+ km.

    if the eF-2000 carries a similarly proportionate load (60% fuel – 2800kgs) + 1000kg aams, it should have a combat weight of about 15000kgs and twr of about 1.2 Problem is, it simply does not have the combat radius to play with the flanker – probly around 800km. Even if the typhoon detects marginally earlier (arguable considering the bars’ power or if both use AWACS), how is it going to convert this to a kill? As soon as it moves in and the MKI realizes its weak position, it disengages.

    * I’m basing the above ranges/radii on the idea that the tiffy does 2600km clean on full internal fuel, combat radius should be half of that (1300 km). With 60% fuel, the Ef-2000 should manage about half that. The flanker can do about 3000 km on the normal fuel load (not full) clean. Combat radius ought to be 1500km. not really counting weapon weight here.

    take the lakenheath scenario wrt an MKI: if the mki seems to lack the top end performance, it simply decides to pull out. what does the tiffy do? follow? turn back? what if the flanker decides to reengage? how long can the tiffy keep up?

    The Tornado currently being one of the best BVR platforms in the world with its datalink/AMRAAM/AWACs combo has been chopped down in excercises by the Typhoon.

    Ditto with the MKI when the RAF went to India.

    As you can see, its not as obvious as one might think.

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: Super-Hornet in the IAF as MRCA #2473499
    uss novice
    Participant

    It definitely works, F-22+AN/ALR-94+AIM-120C to give a hint. An IR missile can’t be launched at very long range with LOBL. Hence it will guide itself towards the thread using INS before acquiring the target with its seeker very much like any ARH AAM which receives no MCG. The problem here is pk.

    Yes, I forgot about the raptor. however, my focus was mainly on the mrca birds – has the c5 even been integrated with the typhoon as yet? btw, iirc most MRAAMs use MCG, i’d think longer ranged one’s would need it even more.

    For the Typhoon it wasn’t an afterthought, but not a great priority.

    for the rafale otoh, it was definitely a strong area of focus and that should make some difference.

    Interesting here would be to know what Dassault offers and what the IAF would require.

    As of now little more is known apart from what i’ve posted (at least to me, more informed members are welcome to chip in)

    Ehm just wonder what exactly is so surprising about the Zhuk-AE or MKI?

    Just that they have fielded an AESA in double quick time. Similarly with the Su-35 as well and thats despite what folks on internet fora have been yelling about the russkies being under a cloud of the 90s turmoil. Don’t see the europeans despite the “better” economies churning out upgrades that quick.

    Well those AWACS killers are not available for any Flanker, yet they are proposed since 15 years or so. I would like to see such weapons before I become more concerned.

    don’t think you’ll have to wait long. 10-15 years ago, a flanker with such a radar did not really exist.

    What bothers me is that people seem to believe that these missiles will achieve the brochure performances in any conditions against any target.

    Not very different from tomtomming vaunted EF-2000 capabilities when hard facts are virtually unseen.

    Sorry but I highly doubt any Flanker will be able to launch such a missile from 300-400 km at an advanced fighter target.

    Perhaps not 300-400km, but 250 ought to be good enough for an irbis equipped flanker.

    There are a lot of claims about the Typhoon’s RCS some sound more some others less impressive. Who knows how they are in reality. I agree that the RCS will rise with tanks and other stuff, but while tanks can be droped a huge airframe remains a huge airframe.

    Yes, but what if your position is already compromised by then? First look makes a lot of difference right? still further, what happens to your endurance and operating radius when you drop the tanks? Can you still match the flanker in a cat and mouse game? Also, if you are going to lug those jugs to try and match the flanker’s range, what does it do to your flight performance? I’d agree with you that a clean config EF-2000 is more nimble than the flanker in certain supersonic regimes, but what happens when it starts to lug EFTs to match the flanker’s range?

    Especially the MKI is a very heavy and also compareably draggy platform given the Flanker style twinseat tandem configuration. Add yet that the engines are still in the same thrust class as for the less draggier and lighter Su-27.

    IIRC, the tvc is used to trim drag (even supersonic and if not at least in the high subsonic)

    Well the problem is to find compareable “figures” for both aircraft to judge. BTW just being interested, has the Su-30MKI an internal jammer or not? As I understand it it has a high band component of the EL8222 internal and a low/medium band podded jammer?

    Correct. Recent news reports do indicate a newer version of the tarang, mk3 i believe.

    Yes, but only if both crew members act effectively as a team and the second seat means more weight, less fuel (or same fuel but even more weight), higher drag (at least in the Flankers case) and higher costs, especially operating costs.

    err, don’t see why the mKI pilots wont be acting as a team. IAF training and tactics seems pretty uptodate it seems. Less fuel – the MKI still boasts a range of 4500km on internal fuel and an endurance of 4.5 hours. With IFR, the birds regularly fly sorties that are literally mind boggling: pune-jodhpur-tezpur-a&C islands-pune endurance of 10 hours. Simply not possible in a Tiffy – the pilot will probly lose his mind!

    Could you elaborate on it?

    We had some pretty interesting posts in the EF-2000 thread, compare the specs with the OLS-30 on the flanker. not much difference, esp. in terms of range.
    the pirate is supposed to detect @ about 56-90km under normal circumstances, the OLS otoh, detects @ 50 non afterburning targets and “several times that” for AB targets!

    In specific situations, especially simultaneous engagement of AA and AG targets a second crew member is definitely an advantage, if not a must. Nonetheless I don’t see what should be a disadvantage about sensor fusion. You may mean a to high degree of automatation leaving the pilot with a lower freedom of actions?

    i think it has more to do with the amount of information a single pilot has to deal with at a given moment. the bloke simply might not be able to process all of it!

    The MKIs range is just superior on internal fuel, once external tanks are loaded the range is quite similar, with the difference that ETs can be dropped…

    Hardly, with EFTs, the tiffy’s range is still a good 500km less iirc (4500km:3700?).

    The VLRAAM is nice for high value asset attacks, yet it would be interesting how such a weapon will perform over a very long range without MCG.

    why no MCG? Also, I assume the seeker will be bigger than a normal AAM and oughtn’t to have too much trouble keeping track of a slow moving AEW a/c.

    For airsuperiority such weapons are of limited use for various reasons.

    Possibly, but still it is a capability (A2A) that the Ef-2000 does not have.

    Huge airframe doesn’t mean that much more space to deal with. A lot internal space is consumed by the larger tanks, larger systems to scope with the larger and heavier airframe. Every engine has its limitations in terms of thrust for its size/weight. You can fit stronger engines to a Flanker so you can do on the F-16, Rafale, Typhoon or whatever smaller airframe.

    Agreed but you can make the MKI lighter using composites (being done already, also check the 35), something that you can’t do much with more recently designed eurocanards. you can further increase the range of the flanker by adding EFTs, can’t do that with the others either. You can have bigger conformal AESA arrays with the flankers, can’t do that with the ef types either, you can have a tail sting radar in the flanker, again can’t do the same with the eurocanards etc. The Su-35 variant is an excellent example of what the MKI could be upgraded to (but not limited to). It turns up having everything most eurocanards offer and more to spare. All said and done i simply don’t see a fully specced tiffy or rafale going toe to toe with a Su-35 type. The Irbis (or a massive AESA) ought to provide first look to the flanker.

    Furthermore especially sensors can’t be retrofitted that easily. A lot depends on how much space is left and more importantly if you can fit them to places where they are useful.

    they seemed to have succeeded quite brilliantly with both the MKI and the 35don’t see why the can’t continue considering how technology progresses.

    regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: Super-Hornet in the IAF as MRCA #2473660
    uss novice
    Participant

    Remains yet to be seen if and when the MKI will receive such goodies at all.

    Nick’s post covers this very well. So i’ll pass.

    A completely silent engagement as it is possible for the Rafale is indeed a nice feature, but it is possible with ARH missiles as well, at least to a certain degree. The ARH missile will go active in the terminal phase, but you can launch it passivly as the MICA IR for example.

    A possibility is quite different from a proven concept. The rafale has it now and stresses on its unique advantage. Yes, it might be possible with an ARH, but has it been tried? Does it work? Theoretically possible, but haven’t seen anything in this regard from the other contestants. It is interesting to note that the Khbiny EW system claims to do this with the R-27.

    BTW the Eurofighter and Super Hornet includes RCS reduction measures as well.

    Perhaps (esp in the case of the Shornet it seems to be a design goal), however, in the case of the EF-2000, it looks more of an afterthought. JMT though.

    Stronger engines for the Rafale are potentially offered but not on order, the fact that France has to pay for it all alone until now is a problem and technologies such as a HMD/S had been canceled to budget constrains.

    I was speaking mainly in context of the MRCA contest – Snecma, M88 with its ECO core is already selected to develop the Kaveri for the Tejas. OBviously a 9 ton + engine is being looked at, the development is already taking place as we discuss, India is indeed providing the necessary budgetary requirements. Note that the Rafale boys were pretty keen on incorporating the Kaveri for an Indian rafale as an incentive towards the MRCA

    Why would India develop the Astra if they have plans to buy off the shelf BVRAAMs from Russia? Probably because anti-fighter missiles like the proposed Izdeliye 180(R-77 upgrade) are nothing but hot air at the moment

    Could it possibly be because of the same reason as why they insist upon having indigenous programs such as Tejas and Arjun or Akash or ABM systems when all of these are readily available in the market. IOW, if the BVR missile offers something additional, india is very likely to buy it. Esp. since many of the russkie new gen missiles are meant to go with the Pakfa.

    with so many promises coming out of Russia’s missile agencies over the last decade and so little actually being delivered, India have a right, like me to be very skeptical.

    It is your prerogative indeed to be sceptical, but mind you many a sceptic had to clam up after the MKI became such a success. No doubt, russian claims have been aplenty, but thats no different from european manufacturers. The other side of the coin is that they have also sprung some decent surprises in the last decade – the Zhuk Aesa for example (apart from the MKI).

    Meteor on the other hand is a reality – being designed for the anti-fighter business unlike K-172 and R-37 which probably have limited capability against fighter sized targets.

    It is indeed a bit odd that while the russians give great details on their radars and other equipment, they are quite enigmatic about their missile capabilities. This seems to suit the indians quite well. A lot was not known about the R-77 that is only now coming into the light. The newer A2A missiles are supposed to start showing up circa 2010, we’ll see. THey have until 2012 to match the Meteor timeline. As far as the KS-172 goes, limited as their use may be against super agile tiffy types, i don’t think a tiffy driver will be thinking of its limitations if he is faced with the prospect. He would be immediately on the defensive. In fact, this is one more area where the gap simply cannot be bridged, the eurocanards simply don’t have the radar to use awac killers.

    I’m also skeptical of of claims that put MKIs avionics in the Tiffy’s league

    Hmm this skepticism seems to follow you like a bad habit 😉

    a larger radar is possible in the MKI – but thats about it, while it is likey the EFs frontal RCS would make such a difference moot – if not in favour of the Tiffy. I would personally be very surprised if the MMI/DASS equivalent on the MKI is in the same league.

    What kind of great frontal RCS will an EF have after hanging lovely EFTs on it? Not to mention drag penalties. BTW, the PR dept of the EF-2000 puts the EF @ about 1/10 the F-15’s rcs. Not really in the league of a rafale type imho (PR dept. puts it as 1/10th of the M2k). The MKI (esp. the newer ones) could be about 3msq clean. Such a marginal difference cannot blow away a solid radar advantage. As far as MMI/DASS is concerned, some more acronyms, but little in terms of real figures from the EF guys. Lets not forget MMI becomes a lot more effective when distributed bet 2 pilots, another advantage of the MKI. Btw, similar adjectives et al were used for the Pirate as well only for us to find out that it is hardly any more spectacular than the now ancient MKI OLS. Another point about the MMI bit, extensive sensor fusion could be to the pilot’s detriment as well (in case of info overload), iirc the french ordered a bunch of 2 seat rafales to compensate for this.

    While the MKI has a range advantage the Typhoon can’t bridge – in Indian colours – the Typhoon will be subject to many upgrades that will be seen on the MKI. Where in certain flight regimes it is arguable the Tiffy has a performance advantage that the MKI can’t bridge. If both are flown to their design philosophies I can see the EF scoring higher kill ratio’s.

    The Tiffy and others are simply not in a flanker’s class, while there may be a marginal advantage in terms of flight regimes, the flanker if driven properly, can cancel this out. The advantages of the MKI otoh (such as range, endurance and 2 pilots, plus the ability to use VLRAAMs), are as you put it simply unbridgeable for the tiffy types.

    but again, it’s coming to the limit of the Flankers design potential. It faces a plane that is more focused in the air-air role – being smaller, less draggy, less visible and more agile despite what airshow enthusiats believe.

    It is infact precisely this point where the flanker has an untouchable advantage as shown by its latest avatar, the Su-35. Everything, the tiffy types can offer in terms of being smaller and less draggy, the flanker can achieve via larger engines. By the time the eurocanards struggle to achieve even full capability (no damocles, hms, Amraam C5 etc), the russkies churn out another advanced flanker variant. Not bad for a counrty thats supposed to still be in economic doldrums. Contrary to what other may feel, imho the flanker has a loong way to go before it reaches its end – the huge airframe offers way too much potential. Conversion to tanker, growler and even aew variants have been thought of – larger airframe = larger radar, more ew equipment, larger tanks and so on. I daresay, the eurocanards (esp. the tiffy and the gripen) will reach the end of their potential well before the flanker does. JMT

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: Super-Hornet in the IAF as MRCA #2473953
    uss novice
    Participant

    This EF-2000 vs MKI debate is quite interesting. All said and done, I’d favor the MKI in both A2A and A2G. A2A simply because despite all the hoopla about tiffy sensors, the MKI has it all with the exception of fewer acronyms. Plus it has been in service for quite some time.
    by the time it gets an MLU, you are looking at a massive AESA or Irbis type with VLRAAMs like the kS-172 and lraams like the izd-180 (meteor equivalent or more). In effect, it can have the ability to cause some serious problems for any EF-2000 since their AWACs cover will immediately become susceptible to the VLRAAMS. After that, taking out an ef-2000 becomes much easier.

    In terms of the MRCA contest, I’d prefer the Rafale to the EF-2000. Even A2A. Despite claims to the contrary the nose size on both the birds looks very similar, I’d expect each to carry an AESA with about 1000-1100 trms. the Rafale however, has the distinct advantage of launching an IIR mica entirely passive. With its lower RcS (based on eyeballing the birds and a small lit review), i’d rate the rafale a seriously dangerous a2a customer and under certain circumstances better than the much vaunted tiffy.

    A2G, the Rafale is ahead and will continue to be so in the near future it seems.

    Against an MLUed MKI, all the MRCA birds will eat dirt imho and by the pintful too! A massive AESA (or even an irbis), huge endurance (makes a good difference in BVR), TVC, no EFTs, VLRAAMs etc simply puts it out of reach for the MRCA types. There is simply no such evolutionary prospect for the other birds. However it must be said that the rafale again offers the best prospects in terms of MLUs as well despite being a small airframe. The designers were smart in incorporating stealthy characteristics in the airframe (unlike the other MRCA) thereby lending to dramatic improvement by changing other things like engines or avionics etc. There is precious little that the others can do to make the airframe more stealthy. An upgrade path to the rafale looks pretty tempting – AESA, M88.3s or Kaveri, CFTs etc. Plus, i’d wager that it is cheaper than both the Shornet and the EF-2000 in terms of man hours and esp. economy. Overall the best bang for the buck. Unfortunately, it is here that the Gripen NG really takes a blow thanks to the small frame. Nice bird, but can’t imagine it doing anything fancier than a souped up Tejas 25 years down the road. The F-16IN is by far the worst of the lot – offers little of note in any of the critical criteria (cost, peformance, future upgrades/evolution, commonality with IAF fleet).

    The rafale therefore is a nice complement to the MKI. The IAF needs a bird that can perform a number of roles and has flexibility, the Rafale does this nicely without having pretensions to Air domination, which the flanker provides beautifully.

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: The EuroFighter Typhoon #2480163
    uss novice
    Participant

    Remind me: How old is the MiG-35 OLS?

    forget the Mig-35 OLS, the Su-30mki OLS has just about the same figures and its hardly new.

    You have trouble sorting out whether they speak of aerial or ground targets? How many afterburning ground vehicles do you know, besides the Batmobile?

    Err care to point out where exactly in toan’s post you have the words afterburning or non-afterburning? that was an assumption I made using wiki links.

    Yes, put out a claim and then drive it home with a rolleyes-smily. Text book for superior debating skills.

    with such insightful commenting as above what do you expect? I think a rolleyes icon is very apt. :rolleyes: But really, that last post of mine really seems to have gotten your goat.

    All sides and all posters. Just not everyone is really doing it that well.

    Hmm so lets just hope that buyers see through the crap that “those who are doing it really well” are trying to dish out.

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: The EuroFighter Typhoon #2480196
    uss novice
    Participant

    4.) Not necessarily, the missiles seeker has to be able to lock onto the target. Hence acquiring the target with an onboard sensor doesn’t mean you can launch a missile at it. Most missiles provide LOAL capabilities, still the problem of acquiring the target by the missile seeker is a different issue.

    IMHO, thats where the Rafale/Mica IIR/OSF combo has a serious A2A advantage. IIRC the Rafale tries to remain totally radar silent, while using the IRST to detect and identify and then letting loose the MICA IIR mainly using its datalink to guide the missile until the seeker achieves lock. Also, correct me if i’m wrong, iirc the mica does have LOBL.

    It becomes increasingly clear what the frenchies mean by discrete. they’ve always said – not totally LO as the F-22 but still “discrete”. very nice capability. A lightly loaded Rafale with about 4-6 Mica could really do well sniping when directed by AWACS or GCI or even bigger partners like a Su-30MKI.

    regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: The EuroFighter Typhoon #2480209
    uss novice
    Participant

    PIRATE IRST:

    1. Maximal detective range in ideal condition: 80nm / 148 km+.

    2. Effective detective range in normal condition: 30~50nm / 56~93 km.

    3. Maximal effective range for image forming / target identification: 35~40 km.

    4. Speed for signal processing: 24 million pixels / sec.

    So that proves that the PIRATE irst is nothing but a fancy name (old wine in new bottles, wot? ). The Mig-35 OLS has pretty much the same figures:

    Detection of non-afterburning targets at 45 km range and more;
    Identification of those targets at 8 to 10 km range; and
    Estimates of aerial target range at up to 15 km.
    For ground targets, the suite allows:
    A tank-effective detection range up to 15 km, and aircraft carrier detection at 60 to 80 km;
    Identification of the tank type on the 8 to 10 km range, and of an aircraft carrier at 40 to 60 km; and
    Estimates of ground target range of up to 20 km.

    The key here is the fact that the russkies are talking of a “non afterburning ” target. Afterburning targets are detected at ranges “several times” higher than the non afterburning ones. Hell even the early IRST versions on the 29 did detection @ around 20+ km iirc.
    Again we don’t have any clarity as to whether the EF-2000 guys are talking about ground targets or aerial ones. I’m assuming aerial ones simply cause I dont seen any such sensor on the ventral side of the tiffy. once again, nice spinning by the tiffy spin dept. (oops I mean PR dept:D). Says much about their claims on stealth and the next best after the F-22 speel. :rolleyes:
    Also, its very interesting to note that the russians talk in terms of “non ideal” circumstances when dealing with their IRSTs, otoh, i’ve always heard of “ideal” ranges over 150km for the eurobirds. hmm, I remember that the R77 came in for a lot of criticisim for not having a lofted trajectory only to find out much later on that it did indeed have the same. Its obvious that the embellishment game is played by all sides quite well.
    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: Return of the Gorshkov saga #2074976
    uss novice
    Participant

    USS and Nick,

    Sorry for the delay in replying to this. Lots of chaff in the way from our new friend with the recurring cat theme in his persona.

    No worries. Yeah, we need a Sher Khan type mod on this thread ASAP 😀

    Where are you getting the crew figures from?.

    From BR.

    The crew of a Cavour is less than 500 personel – why does IAC require more than double or even triple that…even if you figure in flight deck personnel you are only adding a couple of hundred extra hands at most. I cannot conceive of a need for 1200 crew on IAC unless something is seriously amiss with the spec of the ship.

    The cavour must be highly automated. Even the IN’s latest destroyers (P15) are estimated to have close to 300 plus crew complement. the shivaliks are at 250 plus crew.

    The original price solely for the refit of the Adm Gorshkov was released as US$700mn. That price alone has now raised by, if reports are correct, an additional US$1.2bn. So we have $2bn near as damnit for the free carrier to reach Indian service entry.

    Fair enough. Catch at least an extra $ 1.5-2 billion for an IAC built in Europe. $ 4 billion perhaps?

    That is before we look at whole-life expenditure which is the real factor of note as it will, rapidly, outstrip the initial build cost of the vessel itself. Lets say, for the sake of argument, that Gorshkov averages out at $300mn per annum in ops costs – considering an RN CVS tips in at about half that figure I’d say its good enough for ballpark. Its going to cost triple its acquisition price again by the end of a 20yr service life.

    I don’t get it, the USN Nimitz class super carriers cost around $ 160 million (FY 1996, lets say $ 300 million as of present) to operate annuaylly, why should the Gorky cost that much?

    Whole life, including the new sticker price, you are looking at $8bn to keep what will be a modest number of unproven Russian fighters at sea. Without the costs of the fighters themselves.

    $ 8 billion sounds high in view of the FAS figures, but you probly have a much better idea. So for the sake of convenience, we’ll stick to your figures for now.

    So what you are looking for is a better solution than Gorshkov with a whole-life budget of US$8bn. If you can acquire a modern and efficient hull you shave $100mn off that operations cost a year. Remember CVF – 2 hulls aimed at ops costs of £200mn (US$400mn) or one hull, roughly, $200mn USD per annum. 20 years at $200mn -> $4bn in ops budget.

    Even going by your figures – $ 300m for Gorky & $ 200 m for european built IAC, a difference of $ 100 million per year, the Gorky turns out a much cheaper deal. Now, the Gorky costs $ 2.7 billion including a 16 MiG-29k airwing, while the cost of an IAC built in Eur, would cost about $ 4 billion according to your estimate, plus lets add at least another 2 + billion for the a/c (probly rafales). So you have a difference of 3.5 billion $s just in acquistion costs! That Sir is a LOT of upfront dinero AND it’ll take a damn long time to even out.

    for the same whole life cost, with an economical hull, India could’ve spent $4bn upfront on a carrier – present $4bn to Izar, DCN or Fincantieri in 2005 and they would have come up with a very nice vessel for you.

    Not exactly. Let see, $ 4 billion (acquisition cost for ship) + $ 2 ++ billion (acquisition of Rafale types) = $6+ billion in just acquisition costs! Add to that $ 200 mil per year operation costs and you have a cost of $ 10 billion over a period of 20 years.
    Compare this to the Gorky. $ 1.9 billion (acquisition cost for ship) + $ 750 million (acquisition cost of Mig-29ks) = $ 2.7 billion in acquisition costs. Add to that $ 300 mil per year operation costs and you have a cost of $ 8.7 billion for 20 years.
    Despite going with your numbers, the gorky turns out a good $ 1.3 billion cheaper!

    This isnt the end of it either…with a modern design in Gorshkov’s place there is a ready made template for IAC, so, India licenses the original design and carries it through for three or four hulls indigenising along the way. So your IAC spend is suddenly shrunk to the license fee and you have full commonality throughout your carrier fleet!.

    No argument there, I’d rather they’d have gone the European way and maintained a single type of carrier fleet too.

    They can still opt for MiG-29K and STOBAR as easily as the existing IAC has with Italian input so the ‘expensive fighter’ argument need not be relevent either. Unless the Russians would’ve pulled out of the MiG sale without the Gorshkov strings….who knows?!.

    The deal I believe was ahem, “packaged”. Not only the fulcrums, but even the Akula/s. And it is the last bit that makes bickering with the Russkies really worthwhile imvho. 😉 Also, its not just the russians to consider, i doubt the IN would’ve chosen the Fulcrum at all had a Euro-IAC been chosen. It’d have been the Rafale (which was its preference) or at least a Flanker (which might’ve required the tonnage and associated costs of the ship to go up further) As a sidenote, the costs might have inched up if the russians had to test the Mig-29k on a totally new platform (esp. a european one). IIRC, they already had some worthwhile experience when it came to using the Gorky and the MiG-29k on their own boats. I presume such experience comes into play when trying to save valuable $$s.

    Bottom line this is all fairly basic defence procurement procedure. No-one, not even the inept clowns in UK MoD, stop reading at the upfront costs because, as was alleged, you cant get away from whole-life costs – no matter how many attempts are made to ‘fudge’ them. You pay for the maintenance or sooner or later the the ship is tied alongside mission ineffective. Even the USN are in the process of relearning this lesson.

    Aye, I’d agree but thats hardly practical. Upfront costs and capital are ALWAYS a huge factor, be it the cash strapped IN/GOI or a cash strapped small business. If as you say, “first world”, rich G8 nations like the U.S and U.K find it difficult to deal with upfront costs, what to say of a “developing” nation like India?

    Make no mistake India, and its govt officials, knew that Gorshkov was a gamble every bit as much as the Indian Navy did. They couldnt have NOT known what the year-on-year expenses were likely to be….what they were banking on was that the inital $700mn price wouldnt move which, given the level of refit even as it stood in 2005, was extremely unlikely to be the case. Everyone knew that it wasnt enough money and the provided service entry schedule was a work of fiction. Still – thats why they call it gambling right?!.

    Perhaps, but there is also the distinct possibility that they knew exactly what they were getting into and still found the Gorky preferable to a Euro built IAC.

    regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: IAF news-discussion October-December 2007 #2469608
    uss novice
    Participant

    Whoaa! Now this is what I call a hot topic! I do see what the mods are saying here – ignore the Baidah types. However, I do see what the regulars on this thread are screaming about too – the man’s in your face ALL the time. guess they have only one recourse – dish out the same medicine. It’ll be interesting to see how the Kaduna and Vikas types react when their fav threads get spammed all over. 😉 The mods can clean up after it all blows over I s’pose 😀

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: SU-35 vs. the European fighters #2470227
    uss novice
    Participant

    The latest version of this graph is available on Ausairpower.net

    IIRC, Carlo’s latest work puts the Apg-79 slightly higher than the Bars in terms of detection ranges (negligible though). And yes, most of these figures are for the Bars are for the mk1, the mk3, might have some surprises.

    What i’m really itching to find out is how the last 40 MKI ordered directly from Russia turn out. they are supposed to be delivered by 2010-11. Should be interesting.

    Regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: SU-35 vs. the European fighters #2470234
    uss novice
    Participant

    1. The only one making dubious claims here is you. As I & Trident have repeatedly tried to explain to you, just applying double standards to Russian radars while boosting the EF system doesnt work. Your ranges for 133, 150 Km etc for the Irbis were clearly wrong.

    2. The claim about the Irbis range was first cited by me (not you) and comes directly from NIIP. It is more authoritative than copy pasted guess-estimates made by some one else, even someone like Toan. I note Trident also pointed this out to you, but you choose to ignore this.

    I’ve seen some of toan’s work at F-16.net before, while its pretty decent work, his figures for the EF-2000 are always the most optimistic, whether they are related to RCS or radar range. Kind of puts a damper on what is otherwise pretty informative.

    Sens, you really need to do better than that – posting someone’s work (the accuracy of which is quite debatable because of lack of citation) is hardly credible.

    regards,
    USS.

    in reply to: SU-35 vs. the European fighters #2470707
    uss novice
    Participant

    All the data published about NOIIM BARS or NIIP IRBIS are peak values limited to a narrow beam against targets high-up under standard day conditions, no clutter or jamming with a probability of 85%.
    Looking into the practical values. The BARS offers a look-down detection of 140 km (RCS 2m² target) in a narrow beam. The engagement range is even lower. That does make sense, the related AAMs and their practical ranges in mind.

    And what about the Captor figures available on the net? Are they similarly acheived in ideal conditions or are the euros always understating their products’ performance while the russsians are always exaggerating, very convenient this argument.
    Frankly if i’ve ever seen anyone do a simply stupendous job in exaggeration, its got to be the typhoon PR dept. What with all those claims on amazing stealthy features (despite having obviously non stealth characteristics) or the one that I really love -“next best after F-22”, or the oft quoted ahem “study” where a lovely tiffy is chewing up 4.5 flankers for breakfast and similar nos of Rafales for lunch etc :rolleyes:

    The more capable, but still in development, IRBIS will offer a max engagement range of 150 km.
    Ground based radar or true AWACs do offer compared to that much more capability. Less restricted in related power supply and the similar rise in cooling demands.

    Perhaps, but having a couple of Irbis types providing top cover in enemy territory for a strike package is a lot safer without having to think of losing a slowy moving AWACS. the Su-35BM with long ranged detection and missiles can provide this type of protection, the Eurocanards simply can’t.

    Fighter radars have not to work as a homing-bacon. Even the most advanced are limited in power and the related processing power to be a substitute of even a modest surveillance radar. Fighters are guided into an area of interest and do scan a given sector utmost. They are thankful of every support from something like a CGI-network. Data-link is the name of the game in modern warfare.
    When someone has an idea about the true nature of different radars, how it will be operated and keep both sides of every coin in mind, some advertisement data and claims are no longer that thrilling. 😉
    A second thought may give someone a real idea, does it make sense to fit a 100 mio € Typhoon with a limited radar to field it against the most modern Russian fighters f.e.. Neither the people from EADS nor the military customers are such fools. The other way around, the Russians realized, that their fighters had to face semi-stealth opponents to deal with. To compensate for that one solution is to fit more capable radars to rise the own chances. 😉

    good grief! talk about a skewed way of looking at things –
    “powerful fighter radars are homing beacons” (only if they are russian, typhoon is naturally equipped with the most perfect radar ” to easily detect and chew up Russki a/c
    “Typhoon is semi-stealth” and what exactly is that? Carrying fatass EFTs must do something to your RCS sig, no?

    A fighter alone does not win a war or even a battle. :diablo:

    So, lets all use simple Mig-21s with datalinks shall we? damn those americans and their Raptors, stoopid investment wot?

    USS.

    in reply to: Return of the Gorshkov saga #2075220
    uss novice
    Participant

    I did you a favour and even included your silly hands down icon which you use so liberally.

    :D:D:D:p

    Scoot, you need to make that icon or its counterpart your sig!

    regards,
    USS.

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