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Tonnyc

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 93 total)
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  • in reply to: Why the J-10 is an export failure so far? #2208419
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    The non-Chinese project that comes closest to the superb balance of J-10 is Gripen E/F. But as laudable and sorely-needed as that aircraft is, the Chinese deserve credit for getting it right the first time around.

    While I have much respect for the Chinese capability for making fighter jets, that capability was gained through a lot of experience. Licensing, copying, inventing, China did them all, and some of the result are duds. The first batch of J-8 has no night capability nor ground attack capability and its maneuverability was supposedly crap. It was an interceptor though, so maybe the PLAAF at the time did not think they were necessary. Still, that original version ws only ordered in limited quantity, and it was the J-8II and later versions that made the bulk of the 400 or so of PLAAF’s J-8 fleet. Even the J-10 goes through the same process. The vaunted DSI inlet, for example, was not installed in the original J-10A. It was only installed in the later J-10B version. It also used a mechanically scanned radar. The later J-10B is the one with AESA radar. There are also several programs that got canceled. The J-9, for example.

    Claiming that China got it right the first time makes light of the effort they put to get there.

    in reply to: Why the J-10 is an export failure so far? #2208591
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    I remember reading that China doesn’t actually permit J-10’s export. Let me look it up.

    Ah, as per 10 October 2013, the J-10 was not cleared for export. As of today, there is still no news that it has acquired the clearance permit for export. My own understanding, based on the predicted need for J-7 replacement, is that China is dedicating all of the J-10 production for PLAAF’s J-7 replacement need and until that’s fulfilled (or almost fulfilled), they aren’t interested in exporting it.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2208744
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    The proposed $4.531 billion was actually made in January 2009. That was when the proposal was submitted to Brazil. According to http://www.x-rates.com, the average value of SEK and BRL at that time was:
    USD 4.531 billion = SEK 36.633 billion = BRL 10.478 billion.

    If we use $4.531 billion as our starting point and then look at the SEK value, it does look like the SEK value went down in 2013 from over 36 billion to 29 billion, but up slightly in 2014 and 2015. Which tells me that I can’t really conclude anything because the currency fluctuation messes everything up. We also conveniently ignore inflation, which does exist and over 5 years (2009 when proposal was submitted to 2014 when revised contract was signed) was a cumulative 5.4%. I can’t fault price adjustment to account for inflation. Everybody does that. It’s a business necessity.

    Brazil also wants some extra stuff, notably the integration of their tech into Gripen NG. This adds to the price irrespective of the currency fluctuation and inflation.

    in reply to: Adaptve cycle engines #2209386
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    Is the promise of adaptive cycle engines all that they’re cracked up to be? The pentagon seems sold sold on the idea as a total game changer. Are Russians and Chinese working on their own versions?

    What would a fully developed adaptive cycle engines allow a 6th generation fighter to do that current design don’t. Will the over complication and weight nullify the advantages?

    It sounds like you already made up your mind. But, eh, I will give it an answer.

    Adaptive cycle engine can adjust its optimum point. In the end, this saves fuel. Fuel is weight and all aircraft would love to be lighter. Even if the actual fuel carried remains the same, if you can eke out another hundred miles of combat radius, it would be very tempting. Of course we will have to see whether the savings outweighs the increased cost and complexity, but Pentagon wants to give it a try. If you don’t, well, dunno. What can you do, eh?

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2211654
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    Nobody is interested in your conspiracy theories.

    Brazil’s Gripen contract is 39.3 billion kronor. The exact value, to the cent, is available at one of Brazil’s own government site somewhere. That amount, in October 2014 was equivalent to US$5.4 billion but today it’s about $4.55 billion. But the US$ amount is irrelevant anyway, because the contract is in kronor, not dollar.

    No doubt you will start looking at the SEK-BRL exchange rate, but let me repeat, no one cares for your conspiracy theory. There is no conspiracy. The amount is out there in the open for anyone who cares to see. The conspiracy exists only in your mind.

    What the Finnish authorities are looking at are technical data, and that’s the secret part, as it should be.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2214108
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    In October 2010 Saab partner Akaer in Brazil said Gripen NG 39-8 would fly in 2012-13 :
    http://www.akaer.com.br/pt/noticias_info.php?id=26
    Automatic translation from portugueses to english :

    Then in 2013 it was delayed to 2015. Now in 2015 it is delayed to 2016.
    As wee all can see and confirm, there are not delays at all in Gripen NG development…

    Way too easy. First, 2010. Second, not Saab. Third, funding, not technical.

    Hey, you know, Saab’s 5th gen aircraft project (for after Gripen NG) used to be called Flygsystem 2020. It is now Flygsystem 2030+. And yet no one seriously use it as proof of delays.

    No one here says Saab is perfect. In some other forum, maybe, since you will find everything has fansboy making wild claims for it. But this effort to prove that Saab has had delays in the past is getting ridiculous. What, you are going to use something someone said, who is not even Saab, back in 2010 when Gripen NG had no buyer and no certain funding, as some sort of promised schedule? The info you found is not some sort of jealously kept secret. Everyone can find it. But no reputable writer, analyst, or defense observer uses it to prove anything because, well, it doesn’t. Look, if you have to nitpick something to that level, chances are the thing you are nitpicking aren’t going to stand up to normal scrutiny.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2214842
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    Of course it can’t be the case that something mundane happened like things took longer than expected… not in Sweden, land of magic where an upgrade to a 4th generation fighter becomes a 6th generation fighter. :rolleyes:

    Well, yes, something did take longer than expected. The payment from Sweden. Again, if your client tells you that he will delay payment so please delay the delivery, are you or the company you work for going to deliver on the original schedule anyway without having received the down payment? If so, can you give us your business contact info so we can all take advantage of this generous business policy?

    And the sixth generation moniker came from an unrelated third party. Bill Sweetman. While his biases are well known, he is not a Saab employee nor did Saab hire him to write an advertorial. What, is Saab supposed to exercise editorial control over what he wrote? Saab itself never called the Gripen NG that. The most it has done is acknowledge, once that I know of, that yes, someone has called it so somewhere and then they moved on to other things.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215049
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    Ah, so it isn’t late, they just aren’t going to have it ready on the original schedule. :rolleyes:

    It is what it is. If your customer is the one asking for the schedule change, are you going to call yourself late?

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215259
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    It was pretty unexciting.

    They would not answer the question about the price difference between the C and the E, only saying that they cannot give a price because it depends what is in the deal (and what configuration is required in the aircraft). They also mentioned that the cost of the aircraft represented 20%-25% of the deal cost for Brazil. If the deal cost is $5.4 billion then the cost of the 36 frames should be around $1.1-$1.35 billion. That just does not seem possible to me ($1,350 million / 36 = $37.5 million). Did I hear wrong?

    Those numbers are correct. If you look at Sweden’s own purchase, it will work out to about the same. What that number represents is the cost of just the planes and nothing else. People often call it the flyaway price. But these days everybody buys a package deal. In Brazil’s case 25%-30% goes to the actual physical planes. The rest goes to support, training, equipment, spare parts, transfer of knowledge, setting up production in Brazil, etc.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215301
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    As I expected, the Indonesian journalists went to the Gripen seminar. A few online questions from Indonesia too. Of course, we have no idea if Indonesia’s interest will turn into a concrete deal. The favored candidate for Indonesia’s next fighter purchase is still the Su-35. But the interest is there.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215318
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    I can tell you that Saab has invited Indonesian journalists from major newspapers and the official Indonesian news agency to tour both their facility and the Swedish air bases. The thing is, I have no idea who else was invited, but I won’t be surprised if the journalists are part of a larger delegation from the Indonesian Ministry of Defense.

    Here’s an article from the English language newspaper The Jakarta Globe.

    The article is about the Erieye, but given the timing, I am sure they will be attending the Gripen Seminar today.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215353
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    “Resistance is futile.”

    Yeah, yeah, sure. Brazil is still going with their Gripen no matter what you do here. Futile, man, futile.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2215755
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    I just ignore maurobaggio. I tried engaging him in dialogue at first, but quickly learned that it is futile. Haters gonna hate after all.

    in reply to: L-159 Alca #2216064
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    Apparently (again), Iraq is buying the L-159. Or at least, this news article from iraqinews.com says the Czech defense minister has said that Czech military will sell fifteen L-159 back to Aero Vodochy who will then sell them to Iraq.

    Given the past back-and-forth, can folks from both Czech and Iraq confirm this, please?

    in reply to: What is in the F/A-50? the other golden eagle #2217376
    Tonnyc
    Participant

    the FA-50 was supposedly meant to be a combat capable twin seater jet, not a LIFT..the T-50 could easily fulfil the role of a LIFT even without a radar in its nose. And with an Elta 2032 in its nose and with 3500+ kg payload capacity, in both areas it compares very favourably with the JF-17.

    The only question is why isn’t it being fully exploited by integrating more weapons and pods to it? It doesn’t need to be a F-16 to get an LDP, LGBs, an ARM and an AShM integrated. Other light fighters like the Gripen already have these, and the LCA will get these integrated.

    An HMD with the AIM-9X would make it a dangerous opponent in close combat.

    My guess is that KAI doesn’t see any need to rush their timetable. Their main customer so far, ROKAF, doesn’t demand those capabilities. The upcoming big competition, the American T-X tender, also does not require them. What that requires is aerial refueling probe, and I expect that to get first priority.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 93 total)