Wait, let’s back up on the conspiracy theories- answer the question:
You stated that the 1991 autonomy of Crimea was the basis for Russia to take over. I quote you
Now based on the actions that of Crimea that I posted, I’ll ask you again- is that accurate? Was anything I stated about the acts of the Crimean Parliament wrong? I don’t want to hear your justifications. I want you to answer the question. You stated there was a legal precedent based on the 1991 acts. Do you state that as accurate now?
I am still unsure what you are trying to get at here. I am saying that if the Crimea was not an autonomous republic within Ukraine, it would not have legal grounds under intl law to self determination.
Crimea has a separate Parliament from Ukraine and its own constitution. This gives it the right under international law, to self determination. The Parliament called a referendum and elected to join Russia.
The Observer mission reports which include members of the European Parliament have been casually ignored by the mainstream Western media:
Mateus Piskorkski, the leader of the European observers’ mission and Polish MP: “Our observers have not registered any violations of voting rules.”
Ewald Stadler, member of the European Parliament, dispelled the “referendum at gunpoint” myth: “I haven’t seen anything even resembling pressure… People themselves want to have their say.”
Pavel Chernev: Bulgarian member of parliament: “Organization and procedures are 100 percent in line with the European standards,” he added.
This is what Crimea looked like when word got out that Right Sector Banderite Ukrainians from Kiev were coming by the train load to ransack Crimea in 2014.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=RU
Russia -3.7Rest of world- +2.4
The GDP of Russia is falling in a time of economic recovery. Exactly what do you think is going to happen in the next down cycle?
Recovery heh..These things go in cycles.
The US is already in its next recession. As is the rest of the world. Russia just doesn’t fake its numbers.
Funny, because I was using figures from just before the 2013 oil price collapse:
https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp617.pdf
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/pubs/rer35_ENG.pdf
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Crash-Shrinks-Russian-GDP-Energy-Minister-Blames-Saudis.html oil price.com- the same source you used for one of your points, actual details and sources hurt don’t they?Funny, as you write this, oil is at $46 dollars per barrel and the US is still producing 9.2 billion barrels of oil with a rising GDP. How exactly do you explain the falling 6 quarter GDP and Rosnef posting record losses with oil production reaching a record high?
Th
Again, oil price.com- same sources you used:
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Shale-Is-Not-Capitulating-Yet.html
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/08/12/oil-at-30-is-no-problem-for-some-cost-cutting-bakken-drillers/
The funny thing is, that there is a different break-even price for all regions using fracking, so saying $100 per barrel is flat out wrong. Depending on the company and region, it ranges from 60 to 20ish dollars per barrel. The point is… your comment is B.S. even Russian producers are facing issues with break-even prices based on well technology and maturity. There is no one set price that will drive out producers.
The whole oil boom in the US was a Wall St funded easy money bubble play. And the only thing holding up the house of cards is a little accounting trick that they learned from the housing bubble.
This is what took place: the Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down.
Unlike the Wall St bubble BS in the US, Russia’s biggest export was gas. Not oil. And gas never rebounded after 2008 and never got the Wall St speculative momentum bid.
First, while the Ruble fell in value so did manufacturing for five straight quarters. This is not a positive sign. Manufacturing in Russia only rebounded in August with the improved outlook of the economy as a whole. If you know anything about economics, you will see the negative here: usually as a value of a currency declines, manufacturing and exports usually see an uptick. Russian manufacturing is tied to domestic consumption. Russian officials were right, sanctions had a negligible impact on manufacturing. Again, this points to domestic consumption as the driver of the Russian economy as a whole outside of the energy industry. There is a word for the situation, stagflation. What you have seen is inflation of food prices, necessities, without wage or GDP growth. Nabiullina has done an amazing job of stabilizing the economy, softening the floor. There is a cost, however. Without layoffs, without efficiency improvements, or capital investments, recovery will be slow and uneven. If the Panama papers showed anything, the Russian super rich are not investing capital in country. The lack of V.C. interest, loss of foreign investment, the increase in state ownership will limit growth for the near term.
Again, I’m not chest pounding the U.S. economy as there are issue there as well. But reality needs to be applied to this current conversation.
First, while the Ruble fell in value so did manufacturing for five straight quarters.
The world economy is in recession. Some people in the US just don’t want to admit it yet. This is effecting Russia exports but its effecting the US more.
US Factory Orders have decline year-over-year every month since October 2014 (the end of QE3). This is the longest period of decline in US history (since 1956) and has always indicated the US economy is in recession…
If you know anything about economics, you will see the negative here: usually as a value of a currency declines, manufacturing and exports usually see an uptick
That is an urban myth propagated by US Keynesian economists. The US dollar has fallen from $120 on the DXY to $80 since the year 2000 and the trade deficit got worse. In Germany, the Euro went from $80 to $1.40 and exports soared
A
Again, do you think this will lead to the heady days when Gazprom had a stranglehold on LNG delivery to Eastern Europe? That ship
has sailed, consumers will be diversifying their base to avoid the possibility of sole sourced supply interruption.Gazprom is a good source as their operating costs have jumped 17% in the past year. There is a considerable amount of wishful thinking happening in the energy industry right now. Hopes that Iranian crude will not upset OPEC production quotas, hopes that the current glut will ease with a cold winter, hopes that the US fracking industry will be forced out. Worst of all, hopes that price controls are still possible in the near term. Market factors are not encouraging.
Lastly, while US job gains have not at all been tied to the energy boom as layoffs have paced hirings in that industry for the last two year yet unemployment is 4.6% (A B.S. number to be sure- but accurate in terms of employable people).
I am not going to trash the Russian economy because there are some bright spots. However, there are several warning signs that our JSR types don’t seem to accept. First, while the Ruble fell in value so did manufacturing for five straight quarters. This is not a positive sign. Manufacturing in Russia only rebounded in August with the improved outlook of the economy as a whole. If you know anything about economics, you will see the negative here: usually as a value of a currency declines, manufacturing and exports usually see an uptick. Russian manufacturing is tied to domestic consumption. Russian officials were right, sanctions had a negligible impact on manufacturing. Again, this points to domestic consumption as the driver of the Russian economy as a whole outside of the energy industry. There is a word for the situation, stagflation. What you have seen is inflation of food prices, necessities, without wage or GDP growth. Nabiullina has done an amazing job of stabilizing the economy, softening the floor. There is a cost, however. Without layoffs, without efficiency improvements, or capital investments, recovery will be slow and uneven. If the Panama papers showed anything, the Russian super rich are not investing capital in country. The lack of V.C. interest, loss of foreign investment, the increase in state ownership will limit growth for the near term.
Again, I’m not chest pounding the U.S. economy as there are issue there as well. But reality needs to be applied to this current conversation.
If there is anything hampering Gazprom, it will hamper western companies that much more. Western companies have higher labor costs, more erroneous environmental and safety regulations. Gazprom has the cheapest gas in the word.
The U.S. Cannot Compete With Russia In Europe’s Natural Gas Market
http://www.forbes.com/…/the-u-s-cannot-compete-with-russia-in-europes-natural-gas-marke…
Cheniere: We won’t compete with Russia – CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/26/cheniere-we-wont-compete-with-russia.html
Oct 26, 2015 – Cheniere Energy doesn’t believe it will become Europe’s leading liquefied natural gas player despite bullish export plans.
Iran can’t compete with Russia for Europe’s gas market – Trend
en.trend.az › Business › Oil&Gas
Gazprom Sees Record EU Exports as It Shrugs Off US LNG – Bloomberg
hy Russian Natural Gas Will Dominate European Markets …
https://www.brookings.edu/…/why-russian-natural-gas-will-dominate-european-marke…
Lastly, while US job gains have not at all been tied to the energy boom as layoffs have paced hirings in that industry for the last two year yet unemployment is 4.6% (A B.S. number to be sure- but accurate in terms of employable people).
The US employment figures are pure propaganda. You have to look at the labor force participation rate. Because the unemployment rate does not include the people who stopped looking for work. The US fudges the number because they don’t want to have to raise interest rates.
The bad employment number can also be seen in the food stamp usage charts
And the US counts part time jobs as full time jobs which can be seen in the surge in waiter/bartender jobs compared to MFG jobs since 2008
A
Again, do you think this will lead to the heady days when Gazprom had a stranglehold on LNG delivery to Eastern Europe? That ship
has sailed, consumers will be diversifying their base to avoid the possibility of sole sourced supply interruption.Gazprom is a good source as their operating costs have jumped 17% in the past year. There is a considerable amount of wishful thinking happening in the energy industry right now. Hopes that Iranian crude will not upset OPEC production quotas, hopes that the current glut will ease with a cold winter, hopes that the US fracking industry will be forced out. Worst of all, hopes that price controls are still possible in the near term. Market factors are not encouraging.
Lastly, while US job gains have not at all been tied to the energy boom as layoffs have paced hirings in that industry for the last two year yet unemployment is 4.6% (A B.S. number to be sure- but accurate in terms of employable people).
I am not going to trash the Russian economy because there are some bright spots. However, there are several warning signs that our JSR types don’t seem to accept. First, while the Ruble fell in value so did manufacturing for five straight quarters. This is not a positive sign. Manufacturing in Russia only rebounded in August with the improved outlook of the economy as a whole. If you know anything about economics, you will see the negative here: usually as a value of a currency declines, manufacturing and exports usually see an uptick. Russian manufacturing is tied to domestic consumption. Russian officials were right, sanctions had a negligible impact on manufacturing. Again, this points to domestic consumption as the driver of the Russian economy as a whole outside of the energy industry. There is a word for the situation, stagflation. What you have seen is inflation of food prices, necessities, without wage or GDP growth. Nabiullina has done an amazing job of stabilizing the economy, softening the floor. There is a cost, however. Without layoffs, without efficiency improvements, or capital investments, recovery will be slow and uneven. If the Panama papers showed anything, the Russian super rich are not investing capital in country. The lack of V.C. interest, loss of foreign investment, the increase in state ownership will limit growth for the near term.
Again, I’m not chest pounding the U.S. economy as there are issue there as well. But reality needs to be applied to this current conversation.
If there is anything hampering Gazprom, it will hamper western companies that much more. Western companies have higher labor costs, more erroneous environmental and safety regulations. Gazprom has the cheapest gas in the word.
The U.S. Cannot Compete With Russia In Europe’s Natural Gas Market
http://www.forbes.com/…/the-u-s-cannot-compete-with-russia-in-europes-natural-gas-marke…
Cheniere: We won’t compete with Russia – CNBC.com
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/26/cheniere-we-wont-compete-with-russia.html
Oct 26, 2015 – Cheniere Energy doesn’t believe it will become Europe’s leading liquefied natural gas player despite bullish export plans.
Iran can’t compete with Russia for Europe’s gas market – Trend
en.trend.az › Business › Oil&Gas
Gazprom Sees Record EU Exports as It Shrugs Off US LNG – Bloomberg
hy Russian Natural Gas Will Dominate European Markets …
https://www.brookings.edu/…/why-russian-natural-gas-will-dominate-european-marke…
Lastly, while US job gains have not at all been tied to the energy boom as layoffs have paced hirings in that industry for the last two year yet unemployment is 4.6% (A B.S. number to be sure- but accurate in terms of employable people).
The US employment figures are pure propaganda. You have to look at the labor force participation rate. Because the unemployment rate does not include the people who stopped looking for work. The US fudges the number because they don’t want to have to raise interest rates.
The bad employment number can also be seen in the food stamp usage charts
And the US counts part time jobs as full time jobs which can be seen in the surge in waiter/bartender jobs compared to MFG jobs since 2008
l. Having said that, do you actually believe that the fall of oil revenue from 40% to 15% is a positive?
Second, the break even price of fracking on Bakken shale is 25 dollars per barrel, you can thank the Saudi’s for driving efficiency in the Fracking industry. Right now, the price is sidelining exploration and new well drilling. The production of US crude is still only 500 barrels a week off the high in 2015. Producers are sidelining wells until prices rebound. This is NOT a recipe for a strong crude oil price recovery..
Having said that, do you actually believe that the fall of oil revenue from 40% to 15% is a positive?
What I said was, oil was 40% OF the total GDP of Russia in the 90’s. Now it is 15% of the total GDP. So the myth floating around that Russia is a gas station is just that. A myth from the yester years of Yeltsin.
Second, the break even price of fracking on Bakken shale is 25 dollars per barrel,
Sorry but that almost makes me laugh. The way the US comes up with that number is as follows. When the price was $100 or more, shale companies started adding huge fields to their reserves because at that price, they could be counted as reserves. Then when oil busted, they had to write down all of those fields (You dont hear that the US is Saudi arabia anymore do you..) Then they took the small hand full of the best fields and claim that “Bakkens break even is $25” Its a farce. Total farce.
The whole Bakken play was a sell side Wall St bubble similar to the housing bubble in 2008. The sell side can come up with any number it wants to make it look pretty. But it ain’t.
Look at what the sell side was telling investors (where your $25 break even number probably came from) and what they tell the SEC.
More companies operating in Bakken oil patch file bankruptcy – Trib.com
trib.com/…bakken…bankruptcy/article_a4aae6c1-8a75-5dd0-b7fe-bc60dbec8dd2.ht…
Russia can certainly put them there, what you would expect would be for NATO to ensure they have the means to eliminate or disable those systems should it prove necessary. One would expect that to be a combination of EW, standoff weapons, and aircraft like the F-35.
It is normal for the US (and others) to sail in international waters. This ensures freedom of navigation and allows the US to show its presence. (one might note that both the Baltic and Black Seas are bordered by US allies…)
Now imagine how Russia would feel should the US establish a continuous presence in one of these areas, or if it were to build land based systems of similar capability that could deny Russian airspace for 150+ miles into Russia’s territory.
Of course you would believe that. No doubt you also believe it was Russian “volunteers” or soldiers on leave who fought that war in Ukraine… and that the “green men” who arrived on Russian transports were local freedom fighters.
I am not sure what you are trying to say here. Looks like you garbled it up. I take it you think hundreds of thousands of protesters in Kiev, protesting continuously for months, through the winter no less, were all somehow American agents? Please…
Russia has “gone away” to no small extent already. It wasn’t long ago that the Russian empire’s borders stopped at Iran, and West Germany, and Afghanistan. Then Russia actually did go broke… and a swath of territory that by itself constituted one of the greatest empires in history achieved some measure of autonomy. Russia has bounced back from its nadir in the 90s, but hasn’t fundamentally reformed itself. It is basically a petro state with a side business of arms exports. Russia’s manufacturing and high tech sectors are barely a blip compared to even relatively small Western European states.
No, Russia isn’t going away, but it would be nice if one day it found a way to develop into something more.
but hasn’t fundamentally reformed itself. It is basically a petro state with a side business of arms exports.
Westerners like you think that if old cold war platitudes are repeated en it enough times that it will become true. Any negative economic data point in Russia is hailed as the the fall of the USSR 2.0. Any time a Russian aircraft gets hit it is hailed as Afganistan 2.0
Russia’s economy was 40% oil and gas in the 90’s. It is 15% now. Thats a fact. And its funny how the US was hailing itself as the next Saudi Arabia when oil prices were high. The US was bragging about being a gas station. Fracking was all the rage. Even though most US frac companies weren’t making money at $100 oil. The only reason there is any job gains in the US since the great US recession is because of the oil boom. But the minute the oil boom turns to bust, the western media points at Russia.
Don’t forget all the big dreams the US had of exporting nat gas to Europe to compete with Russia. Before the 2014 oil price route of course.
US shale is a surprisingly unprofitable miracle – FT.com
http://www.ft.com › Markets › FTfm › Opinion
Russia-China Deal Could Kill U.S. LNG Exports | OilPrice.com
oilprice.com › Energy › Natural Gas
US LNG exports to be loss-making with ‘100% probability’: Gazprom …
http://www.platts.com/…/natural-gas/…/us-lng-exports-to-be-loss-making-with-100-probabil…
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