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merlin2

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  • in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2358518
    merlin2
    Participant

    too soon to say

    all it takes is one big win (India)

    India??? not a chance !

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704590704576091194242710236.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

    I still believe the Rafale will win in Brazil but it will be a painful victory because Brazilians know how desperate the French are and they won’t leave any money on the table for Dassault.
    Dassaults chances to win in Indiac is virtually ZERO…Remember the RAFALE was eliminated once and reinstated after Sarkozy called the Indian PM personally and ask him to let it in the pipeline
    but since INDIA-US relations have improved immensly and the fact that both countries have already inked defence deals worth 10 Billion dollars including the licence for the manufacturing a GE engine, the chances of the SH is far bigger than the RAFALE.. And Indians are also interested in Typhoon ! If a western fighters proves too costly for the Indians, they can always resort to a russian option.
    Rafale’s will never ever ever ever win in India !!!!!!

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2358669
    merlin2
    Participant

    The Rafale will probably earn the “unluckiest fighter ever” award…

    Has already earned that title. I would rather say ” ill-fated ” fighter instead of unluckiest . Fighting frantically for an export order since more than 10 years with no success in sight and this is despite the most influential Sales Manager the money can buy ‘ The President of the Republic’

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_05/b4213014940717.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2359775
    merlin2
    Participant

    The US Congress will never approve a full transfer of technology with regard to AESA radar APG-79 which is the second most advance fighter radar in the world today. Dilma will reduce the price of Rafale further and most probably buy it in the end. Dassault will accept a sales price with ZERO profit because If Rafale loses in Brazil the aircraft is finished once and for all as export product but they will not do something like LeClerc tank sale to UAE were they sold the tanks far below the break even in order to get the contract from Challenger 2 and Abrahms that it nearly bankrupted GIAT…

    in reply to: "Super Hornet better than Harrier, Tornado and Typhoon" #2334807
    merlin2
    Participant

    as for the rafale production line closing, I doubt they close the line without another aircaft to produce.. france will probably maintain orders (and probably reducing the number of year’s deliveries if necessary) to keep production active.. what’s more, if there’s an export order, that will delay french orders (saving them money on that years’ budgets, so, saying “we can’t buy because the line will close” sounds quite curious

    Dassault is a small company.. They can survive on 10 Rafales a year so if France orders another 60 Rafales in 2015 in addition to the last 59 ,this could keep the assembly line open until 2020..and after that anything is possible but France can’t order 500 more Rafales in order to keep Dassaults fighter assembly line alive for another 50 years in case Rafale can’t find an export customer..

    in reply to: "Super Hornet better than Harrier, Tornado and Typhoon" #2337672
    merlin2
    Participant

    The AESA radar APG-79, is arguably the best fighter radars out there and AIM-120D comfortably exceeds the good old AIM-54 in terms of range, accuracy and seeker technology .. So , the SH is not as bad as we thougt..
    Even for someone like me who is still in love with F-14D !

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2340179
    merlin2
    Participant

    Thanks Bluewings.. I would also like to hear the opinion of Aspis on this one.

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2340231
    merlin2
    Participant

    Hello Aspis,

    I came across this in another forum , very interesting stuff..

    this is an article about HAF Block 52+ and Rafales in an exercise. The Block 52s were brand new and not fully equipped — apparently they didn’t yet have their RWRs installed. Nonetheless, they did rather well against the Rafales. Some highlights:

    1) The lack of RWRs in the F-16s was a problem; the French fighters aborted when they detected a lockon; the Greek fighters were not able to do that.

    2) The F-16’s AGP-68(V)9 worked extremely well and gave the HAF the ability to detect the French from quite a long distance and coordinate maneuvers at long range via Link-16

    3) Due to its PESA architecture, RBE2 range is inferior to AESA; based on performance in the exercise HAF estimates its range is not superior to the [mechanically scanned] AGP-68(V)9. However the RBE2 was, as expected, more flexible, giving it the ability to track more targets simultaneously.

    4) The French requested a second exercise after the conclusion of this one, which speaks well of 115CW and its F-16 Block52+

    5) The ECCM of the 52s worked smoothly when the Rafales used their Spectra ECM system. The active jamming on the Rafales was not able to break the lock of the APG-68(V)9s.

    6) The French pilots reported all their shots as a shoot-down regardless of range. The HAF improved its performance placing the majority of its shots in the “noescape” zone of the AMRAAMs. So the French aircraft got more shots, but the HAF’s ones were much more likely to result in an actual kill.

    7) In all,the Rafale showed a marginal superiority but with a large numbr of low PK shots, unlike the Block 52s which achieved fewer shots but all in their missiles’ no escape zone. All in all, the Rafale had only a marginal advantage in this exercise with the blk 52+.

    Certainly, the HAF aircraft in no way dominated the Rafales. But the Rafales’ performance fell far short of the claims often made about it.

    What do you think about this..I am interested in your opinion..

    Thanks dude..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2347046
    merlin2
    Participant

    Mirage 2000s were designed right from the beginning to have low maintenance costs and time. Dassault utilised prior knowledge from operational experiences on its previous programs to make it a very highly available and easily maintainable fighter. This was further improved on the Rafale, where the Rafale was designed with Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) methodology and had very strong involvement of Users and Support Specialists at the requirement definition and development phase. All of which was done to keep Life Cycle Costs for the Rafale as low if not lower, than that of the Mirage-2000.

    Also, I read somewhere here that someone said that the F-16 is cheaper to operate per hour as compared to the Mirage-2000 and that is not true. The Mirage is cheaper to operate per hour at around $ 2700 per hour as compared to $3600 per hour for a F-16.

    The source is available here

    ..

    The M2000-5 cost 15-20 % more than an F-16 which comes with more complete package..Besides the comparison $2700/$3600 per hour comes obviously from Dassault ,I would therefore discount it by 50% !!

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2348047
    merlin2
    Participant

    the Mirage 2000 still had plenty of developmental potential, is cheaper to operate than the F-16, and already being exported.

    M2K was more expensive to operate vis-a-vis the F-16 and no development potential at all..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2348791
    merlin2
    Participant

    I am pretty sure that the Grippen NG will win the competition…. I was speaking with several pilots during CRUZEX V and they all say the same…. Gripen is the best choice right now! Hope that the Brazilian Gvmt. will listen to what the FAB officers…. and not make a “political” move towards the Rafale (which was not elected by the Brazilians who tested the three contenders…. 😮 )

    Salu2

    I agree ..Dilma might choose the Gripen NG for strategic reasons..It is not good for Brazil to be dependent on France for everyting..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2350883
    merlin2
    Participant

    you my friend, are right as always (98%) of the time!
    I personally think the Eurocanards have more potential but the F-16, can do most of the same jobs at the same levels as them. Has much lower operating costs than the Typhoid and Raffie, and close to the Gripen’s cost. Has a wide range of weapons already integrated. Has many 3rd party upgrade options (like Israeli sourced) available. Already has working AESA and full A2G modes available.

    I also agree that Aspis is one of the most dynamic and interesting contributor to this forum. The Eurocanards superiority vis-a-vis F-16 Block 60 for instance is only marginal.. Besides, the VIPER is hugely combat proven and as a result of ecomomies of scale much cheaper to produce ( 4700 left assembly lines which makes it second more successful after F-4 ) and spare parts easily available..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2351810
    merlin2
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Das Kardinal;1673134][QUOTE=merlin2;1673099]

    If Dassault throws the towel, it’s over for Europe as a continent able to build fighter aircraft autonomously and not as subcontractors for American companies. Yes, there’s the Eurofighter – but it’s a composite of capabilities, and its own future is bleak too out of budgetary constraints (and JSF competition). There’s Gripen too, but vital parts of it are American as well.
    QUOTE].

    That’s true…

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2351813
    merlin2
    Participant

    While, I give the Rafale the edge in this race. The Super Hornet could pull it out. Especially, considering France has failed time and again to sell the Rafale. Likely because of its high price………

    BTW It’s my opinion that the Super Hornet will win the MMRCA in India.

    I agree.. SH or the Russians..Remember the ‘Rafale’ had been knocked out of the tender in 2009 and later reinstated after Sarko phoned the Indian prime minister ..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2352049
    merlin2
    Participant

    [QUOTE=Das Kardinal;1672606]

    Dassault is a profitable, private company. They aren’t “desperate” : worse happens, they drop the military business and focus on their juicy civilian market (bizjets and computing applications).
    Bottom line, their survival doesn’t rely on selling Rafales.

    You obviouly didn’t grasp what I was trying to say..Dassault as a company or group of companies might not be desperate because they can survive on business jets as you correctly pointed out..Dassault is desperate for RAFALE. .If they lose in Brazil than there is a good chance they could also lose in India and UAE(rumor has it is already the case) They face the ultimate danger of dwindling into oblivion as Europe’s one and only ‘fighter aircraft prime manufacturer..French Airforce can’t order 11 fighters every year for the next 20 years to keep the assembly line open…Besides 11 fighters a year would be extremely expensive..

    in reply to: Rafales for Brasil #4, Cachorro-quente! #2352052
    merlin2
    Participant

    http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/12/07/350656/wikileaks-embraer-favoured-super-hornet-for-brazilian-fighter-contract.html

    A wikileaks document is saying that chief executive of Embraer Frederico Fleury Curado stated that he hopes the F/A-18E/F would win the FX-2 bid as early as January of last year. This is not surprising at all given that Boeing has publicly stated already that they intend to work with Embraer on a new fighter project a short while back but he also stresses that it would add ‘value’ to the Super Tucanos the United States is purchasing. Technology transfer is another large factor. Mind you this document is nearly two years old and Dassault and Saab have upped the ante with their technology transfer promises but it seems the promise of technology transfer towards developing a new Brazilian fighter aircraft with Boeing is the most enticing factor to Embraer.

    I dont think that Dilma would opt for the SH…Rafale will eventually win but Brazilians would not leave any money on the table…Hard bargain is the name of the game and Dassault can’t dictate anything Dilma says take it or leave it..

Viewing 15 posts - 196 through 210 (of 296 total)