varioThe appearance of the WS-10A, Chinese JDAM, JSOW, are already by far the interesting new things for this show for me.
Yes, this year is far better than 2004
varioHere are some numbers from Russian sources, regarding what aircraft can TO from Kuznecov’s ramp and at what weight:
Su-33:
TOW from 1st (bow) position, distance 105м – app. 30000kg (full internal fuel, 2 medium-range AAM, 2 short-range AAM), 2nd position, distance 195м – 32200kg (full internal fuel, 8 MR AAM, 4 SR AAM ), at 15 knots with no headwind.Mig-29K:
18500 kg from 1st postion
22500 kg from 2nd positionRegarding AEW there is Yak-44. Full scale model was built and construction of flight test prototype was started when Ulyanovsk was cancelled. This can be regarded as a project only of course, but the documentation is still available as are the D-27 turbofans (flight tested extensively on An-70). This aircraft could be able to take off from Kuz 2nd position with NTOW of 26 tons
Thanks snake65 for the Yak-44. The general opinion in china is that it’s quite hard for Yak-44 or similar AEW plane to take off from Varyag, so I guess there must be some technical difficulties to overcome.
varioIt’s definatly a CGI photoshopped on a real background
This is a picture taken by someone (called Janson) who works for the airshow. Most of the above pictures of the air show you see were taken by him.
Just wait for few days you will see pictures of this model fully assembled.
varioIn developing Turbofan engine, thinking carries no weight
The saying from Chinese aviation industries is : 5 years research, 5 years develop and 5 years certification. Even we have a good “ thinking”, it still up to the time consuming development & certification. On the other hand, developing engine needs big funding, after WS-10, I think AVIC1 still got other fighter jets engines projects. Can they really develop so many engine projects at the same time? I don’t think there will be Ws-10 commecial version soon, that’s one of the reasons why we see the big order of IL-78 by PLA.
I think what that 3X5 stages is 5 yeas for core engine R&D, 5 years for prototype engine R&D, 5 years for project engine R&D.
But prior to the core engine stage, there’s at least 5 years of preliminery research. And after the project engine R&D stage, although you enter the mass production stage, you would experience another 5 years for user acceptance. Although from project R&D’s point of view, these 2 extra 5 year stages are out of scope, when you look back on the whole history of an successful engine development, they are inevitable.
Now to me, WS10A has entered the 5th 5 year stage. There will be problems found by PLAAF and that’s the whole purpose of this stage: no matter how good you enigineers promise this engine is, it’s going to up to the average PLAAF’s ground support guys to make the conclusion. Just like the AL31 engines, you can say it’s MBTF is 1000 hours, but PLAAF will use their own, real statistics to talk to you.
varioWithout a catipult, the combat load of flankers or any other type of fighter operating off of the Varyag would be pretty limited, and thus are their combat potential and usefulness.
There is also the ‘small’ issue of mission. The PLAN’s current objectives are located close enough to the Chinese mainland to be able to count on land based combat air support for pretty much any kind of combat mission the PLAN is likely to face.
This means that it would make far more sense to have the Varyag carry helos for fleet AEW and ASuW duties.
As for the costs of the radar and missiles, well if they are going to make the Varyag operational again, its going to cost a heap of money anyways, and its not like they are just going to stuff engines into her and call it a day. Radar, C&C, missiles, CIWS etc will all be installed anyways, and while four phase arrays are going to be a hell of alot more expensive the a Chinese verson of Top-plate and all the other radars needed, it’ll give a pretty huge leap in capabilities in return.
I’d be extremely suprised if the PLAN is willing to spend so much money just for a training tool, when,
a) they have a huge number of critially important projects ongoing right now that all need lots of money (051C, 052C, 054A, SSN, SSBN, Song SSK, Yuan SSK, stealthy FACs etc), and so there is very little reason to skim much needed funds from them to just make a training tool that is not even needed right now.
b) even with all its new DDGs and FFGs, the PLAN is still pretty light in air-defence and its ASuW can always use some beefing up. However, with Chinese yards having already filled their order books for years to come, the PLAN might very well not be getting the ships it wants fast enough (eg, second batch Sov order). If they are going to make the Varyag sea-worthy again, they might as well spend a little bit more to make her truely useful.Its also not like the Varyag will need major strutural changes, as the ship was designed to take a great many VLS AShMs. They would just need to be replaced with VLS SAMs, and the fighter carrying capacity of the carrier would remain largely unchanged.
I am not suggesting that the PLAN is thinking of completely re-making her into a supercruise that just happens to be able to carry fighters, but merely the kind of upgrades the PLAN is likely to make to her so that she can play a bigger role then just training, to justify her cost.
You have your points about how Varyag should be used. But I think PLAN is not going your way.
In essence, getting Varyag back into service, purely for training or not, is to gain experience and capabilities mainly on sea borne air combat. Adding some long range VLS is really insignificant. They can even do that by coverting 051B DDG ship or build more 052C ships. Varyag is not for that purpose.
Also, from quite some chinese articles I read, PLAN is really not interested in this bit of everything design. The current Varyag design is already not sufficient enough to support a meaningful long range commission(not enough fixed wing fighters, can’t or very hard to deploy fixed wing AEW planes etc…). It’s does not worth the money to turn it into the core asset of a future battle group, let alone adding extra bits and pieces. For what china had invested in this ship, a training ship will give china the best return to investment ratio. Thinking too much will just delay the whole thing and reduce the benefit margin.
I am not saying your idea is wrong, in fact it’s a natural thinking. I believe some people in PLAN thought about it the same way, but as far as I know they couldn’t convince the senior level.
varioMy observation is that:
Around 2004-2005, the decision to go ahead with carrier project was made, hence we started to see articles and news reports (not very many on public domains, but we are seeing more of them now) about companies, factories and Unis competing for subsystems(bragging how good they are to provide components for aircraft carrier). CAC and SAC both joined the fighter plane bid, but very quickly we heard from CAC’s guys that J10 was rejected, SAC got it and they are going to learn from Su33.
Although there are still some people hoping J10 to be selected, but seriously most long time forumers stopped talking about it. It’s almost a done deal.
As of Rafale, there has been quite a few news and rumors for years, but it’s just something good to have and you can’t plan any thing based on it, because it’s too hard to remove the sanction. IF, (a big if), France can get the sanction removed, China is very likely to purchase some Rafales, evenif Su33 is already bought. Buying Rafale has many strategical, political and technical benefits, regardless it’s going to aboard any aircraft carriers or not. Of course, the reality is, it’s very unlikely although I think china must have made some attractive promises otherwise I don’t see France and Italy to push for removing the sanction.
varioNowadays, every and each “military” forum has the same chinese sections with the same handles agreeing (no debate allowed) the same subject again and again… spreading the same pictures, the same lies and the same Adobe Photoshops (C) again and again…
If many sources say the same thing, does it becomes the truth?
Where am I??? What is this??? Is it a huge joke??? :confused:
Turbinia, Neptune, MyFather, the others… what?
And on top of that, the best thing is on almost every military forum, if there’s a long thread about china, we definitely can see FrancoisXX expressing his in-depth sigh 😉
varioObviously, a PAF pilot just did a flight of J10 in ChengDu this afternoon. Picture is too blury so no point in posting it.
I thought it’s the Egyptian Airforce officers coming to visit ChengDu. Maybe they haven’t arrived yet.
varioMost concerned factors?
1. Find next customer.
2. Increase the manufacturing capability. Assembly line in Pakistane is not ready yet, but ChengDu is too busy at the moment and the other possible producer GAC is still reluctant to be merged into CAC.
3. Test flight shedule is very tight as well.
Sorry, just my view only.
varionever said it wasn’t SARH, but rather that you are ignoring indigenously developed SARH type of SAM.
nobody rumoured the gun to be 76 mm until most recently, and that radar is indigenous, not top plate.
The B&W photo of the 76mm gun was on the net for more than 2 years and it was pointed out at the same time that it would be standard weapon on future FFGs.
China got Top plate’s license quite a while ago, 052B’s Top plates were produced in China rather than Russia, but that’s still a Russian designed radar. 054A’s radar is significantly modified, but I still call it Russian origin.
And yes, you are right, HQ16 is SARH.
As of VLS HQ7, its fate is not certain, given that PL12 has been given serious thoughts to be navalised.
varioI’m neither assuming nor ruling out anything. Just using what IS known (VL, SARH) and suggesting what would be (il)logical or most likely (you don’t really need Orekhs if you have an active radar homing missile, or an IIR-homing missile)
Well, 054A with Russian origin Top Plate, 75mm Main gun, Orekh, Ka28 and Chinese HQ16 (with Russian help) has been the rumored in China for 3-4 years. So, to me, the most likely thing is, the rumor is correct.
varioI don’t think we should call the article BS. At least someone spent sometime calculating and writing all these stuff.
I think it’s a good article, it has all the procedures/formulas right, but due to lacking information, the input data may be way off mark, hence the end result sound strange.
varioThe government has always asked the budget to be supplied from special funds, because there was no way they could expand the budget to cover all of it. They’ve repeatedly cut it down, to the point where really it should be passed now. However the KMT keep finding excuses to block it. They’re now trying to claim that:
a) The submarines are “offensive” and too risky to buy, even though they wanted them when they were in power.
b) The PAC-3 systems cannot be bought because they were “vetoed” by the referendum, despite the fact it only failed because 50% of the electorate didn’t vote for it. As to those that voted a majority wanted it. So that is a rather petty reason for blocking it.
And that’s where the problem is, both the ruling party and the opposition party just want to blame each other for all the problems Taiwan is facing. Nobody is willing to bite the bullet and do something helpful to Taiwan rather than themselves or their party.
Hence, to me, there’s no point in finding out the truth, because those are all excuses.
Taiwan has a fundamental man made problem to solve before talking about other stuff like purchasing equipments.
varioWhat do you mean?
If I understand correctly, the government/MOD tells the legistlative house (which is controlled by the opposition party) to pass this huge amount of purcahse in the normal budget, but there is a process for adding an item into the normal budget, but MOD does not want to follow that process. Now if they don’t want to follow the normal process, by law, they can request a special process for special budget, but they don’t want to do that either. They just put it in this way: I want it and you’d better give me. Man, in any democratic country that attitude won’t work.
with this attitude, anyone can see, the ruling party is playing political tricks rather than really wanting to get the defense purchase going urgently. They are using a small procedural issue to shift the blame to the opposition party. And the oppostion party does not want to give in either: who cares about the defense.
Frankly speaking, to me, No one in Taiwan is really serious about external issues, either china’s threat or anything, their focuses are purely internal. To them, the less money spent on any long term things, the better.
varioActually the Patriot-3s haven’t been bought either – the entire list is still dead. But it isn’t the Chen administration that’s refused to buy them – it’s the Pan-Blue legislative that keeps coming up with excuses to keep it off the agenda. They won’t even let people vote on it because they keep stalling it in the procedural committee.
So Washington is annoyed at Taiwan’s failure to buy them – who they blame specifically is difficult to be sure of.
Hmm, the latest Janes’ headline said “Taiwan to break deadlock on P-3C Orion purchase”, but no juicy details were in the free extract as to how they’ll do that!
But as far as I know, the story is not that simple. The reason (evenif you call that the superficial reason) why the opposition blocks the deal is because the government (Defenece Ministry) does not follow the legislative procedure to request the purchase.
In nut shull, the ruling party is using this chance, again, to give the opposition party (which holds the majority in the legislative house) a hard ball: either accept it or got blamed for delaying vital defence need. And the opposition just play the ball.
To me, the whole Taiwan political arena is a mess. Both ruling and opposition parties don’t really care about the defence. The next election (which happens almost every year) is the most important one, how to put bad names on the rivals are more important.
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