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Jwcook

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Viewing 15 posts - 376 through 390 (of 932 total)
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  • in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431653
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Well Jason I have just been out for a very good drinkup, and am feeling very very merry ;-).

    I guess you have your opinion and I have mine.

    I shall now sit back and watch the show, (and grin) and we shall see what occurs in the next month or two. and reserve the right to say ” I told you so”

    BTW way what was the make or break cost/time that you have avoided quantifying for the JSF………………………………………………………………… just interested

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431711
    Jwcook
    Participant

    In September 2002, Government decided to go with JSF as it’s most likely solution and in October 2002 formally committed to the SDD program as a Level 3 partner.

    Now this may make it seem like a fait accompli, but first pass approval (where defence is actually AUTHORISED to commence assessing capability options to put to Government) didn’t occur until 2006. Between 2002 and 2006, Defence was continuing to assess it’s options, including a Super Hornet based capability for a bridging solution if need be.

    Second Pass approval was granted in November 2009. It has hardly been a “rushed” or “arbitrary” acquisition. Do you think Defence has been doing nothing but patting itself on the back ever since 2002, or have they actually been testing their decision, through simulation, war-gaming etc?

    Seem like a fait accompli? the defence minister thought it was…. How about this from the defence minister which he stated at the press conference in 2002

    QUESTION: Minister, can you, with this decision now, you’re in fact ruling out any open competition in 2006 for a replacement fighter? Is that what you’re effectively saying?

    ROBERT HILL: Well, a sort of definite answer on that is a few years down the track. But, as I said, I think it would be unfair to competitors to hold out a carrot that I don’t think is really there. Our starting point in this project, this investment in the design and development phase, is our belief on the basis of information that’s currently available to us and the advice of the Air Force, that this is the aircraft for us in the future.

    or even better

    In relation to other manufacturers who would have liked to sell to us as part of the Air 6000, to be fair to them I think we’ve got to say what I’ve already said and that is that we are going into this project expecting it to be successful. We’re going into the Memorandum negotiation expecting the Memorandum to be signed.

    We’re going into the development phase expecting it to lead to acquisition of aircraft. But the acquisition decision, as I said, we don’t expect to be finally made to around about the 2006 period.

    So what where they actually comparing in 2002 re the JSF?, a $US40m dollar aircraft with a choice of two engines, even access to the sources codes as a ‘partner’, and a aircraft no different from the USA, etc…

    Would you say that the ‘assessment’ has stood the test of time?, and don’t forget we still have the difficult bit to come.

    Would you agree Its a bad career move to question the JSF in defence?, Gates assesment was no where near the rosie picture painted by our minister a few weeks before, have you got a reason for that?

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431791
    Jwcook
    Participant

    So those who responded to the request for proposal but never made it past that are the most credible sources, are they?
    .

    They never passed what? that is the question.. have you missed the point.

    Look at the timelines, IIRC ~ 8 months between RFI and decision – the decision was by government and took everyone by surprise including some involved in the “assesment”, eight months to evaluate all the RFI and an aircraft that only existed on paper?, do you think it would be prudent to proceed slower in that sort situation? what exactly was the rush?

    I have no problem if you call it an arbituary decision, but don’t call it an assessment/competition/evaluation.

    cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431800
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Do you work in the NACC project office? No? Then you actually have no clue WHAT they do.

    I can only go on what I see and also what I hear from informed sources within the Eurofighter Program, Now I understand Eurofighter GmbH may feel slighted by the ‘assesment’, BUT –

    Bit of background from the past…

    The criteria was delivery in 2010-2012 something that Eurofighter would have found near impossible, with only around 5 extra airframes per year over and above what the partners were getting, coupled with a requirement for certain mission capabilities that were not programmed till after 2014-16.

    This was apparently was a ‘factor’ because the JSF had the dates all in as per the criteria, no matter that it was just a paper aircraft at that time, so the decision was made that the JSF met the dates and the capability.

    Now we find those dates were not that important, simply add AU$6Billion worth of F18E/E to cover the gap caused by believing a PP presentation.

    History has a way of rewriting itself…. Try looking at what the NACC is mandated to do..

    NACC’s Project Mandates and its Objectives

    NACC has two key outcomes:

    1: To deliver a new air combat capability commencing in 2012, which broadly replaces that currently provided by the F/A-18 and F-111 aircraft; and

    2: To maximise the level and quality of Australian industry participation in the global JSF Program.

    I suppose # 2 would have been much much harder if it involved other aircraft;). the NACC IPT was formed in Sept 2002 and in Oct 2002 the decision was taken for the JSF.:eek:

    That has to be the fastest project team setup and ‘evaluation’ in history, I bet they were still unpacking boxes and choosing chairs. It was a government decision and The NACC IPT were not going to challenge that.

    Source http://www.defence.gov.au/dmo/news/ontarget/feb07/hl5.cfm

    I have no problem the government choosing an aircraft politically, but I do have a problem if it cloaks it in a fair and thorough assesment of capability.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431807
    Jwcook
    Participant

    They have not committed to anything and no contracts will be signed until 2012.

    This leaves plenty of time to watch the the development process and reevaluate their decision. They can always buy EFs, Rafales, more SHs, or whatever if they need to.

    I was under the impression Australia is committed to 14 airframes, with the remainder (~72) being purchased in 2012, be under no doubt that the decision is being made unchangable, so that no serious alternative can be considered.

    I find this sort of comment interesting:-

    Defence Minister Senator John Faulkner said the decision followed years of unprecedented evaluation and planning by all countries involved in the JSF’s development.
    “Defence has done more analysis on this platform than any other platform in the acquisition history of the ADF,” Senator Faulkner said.

    Hmmm lots of analsis just on this aircraft!!, I know the Eurofighter GmbH havn’t given any further information since 2002, and frankly wouldn’t bother with Australia anymore unless they were approached with concrete request to buy.

    Perhaps the squeals of “its had 75% evaluation” really meant it was all done on the JSF alone, rather than any other aircraft :diablo: LOL…

    And you do realise that the delivery date to partners is a paper promise too!, The first aircraft to be delivered to partners will be delivered in the USA, and will not be allowed to leave the US until they finish the JSF’s OT&E, so imagine a couple of years of JSF protecting their respective embassy’s in the US, because were not allowed to take them home..:o

    and you do realise it take about ~4 years to bring a squadron into service. so 2018 means delivery in 2014, I think the Oz newspapers may make something of that.

    So don’t forget to add that little gotcha to the earliest deliveries.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431823
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Looks like there is similar attitude towards the F-35 like on this forum.. With the exception that F-35 fanclub there are folks who made the decision and now cover their backs at all cost.

    Not one of them has answered the basic question of how much is too much..

    What’s the price at which we say its too much, or the delay when we say that’s too late..

    There is no plan B…:eek:

    The are basic questions that should be easy to answer, however I fear the usual suspects will avoid trying.

    cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2431835
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Source Fighter in a spin

    Latest news from australia…
    Food for thought…:p

    The Howard government controversially chose the F-35 in 2002, when the plane was still on the drawing board, with virtually no serious analysis of other warplanes. It was a gamble the government took on the basis that the promised features of the “fifth generation” F-35, including stealth, range, payload, land strike and air defence, provided a better overall capability than other existing “fourth generation” fighters already in service, such as the F-15e, Typhoon, Rafale and Gripen.

    MILITARY chiefs in Canberra were unamused when US Defence Secretary Robert Gates publicly savaged the performance of the Joint Strike Fighter project early this month.

    Gates’s candid and unexpected outburst, in which he cited the fighter’s “troubling performance record” stood in stark contrast to almost everything the Australian Defence Force and the federal government have told Australians about the new warplane.

    There is no defence project in this country that enjoys such a sacred-cow status as the $16 billion plan to purchase 100 JSFs, or F-35 fighters, to form the rump of Australia’s future air force.

    At the senior levels of the Defence Department, the F-35 remains the chosen aircraft and, as one military insider told The Australian this week: “To question the F-35 inside the Defence Department is a dangerous career move.”

    In other words, there is a disturbing vacuum of critical analysis and alternative viewpoints.

    “I don’t think they [Defence officials] are seriously contemplating any other options,” says Andrew Davies, of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432001
    Jwcook
    Participant

    i was told we flew them in the evaluation

    Who told you that????

    and if you want to claim that we didnt properly evaluate them to the 75% of work done, you will need better than an article, a .gov.au link would be ok
    or we can shift this debate over to defense talk where a couple of members were involved in air6000

    LoL you claim 75% huh… so there were 4 aircraft in the running.. which one wasn’t ‘assessed’ at all.:D

    Its not me who’s claiming there was a ‘real’ assessment done, Air6000 was curtailed before any formal evaluation, as confirmed and quoted by the minister.

    Its up to you to provide any link at all to bolster your claim, or just anything at all apart from your assertions.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432015
    Jwcook
    Participant

    The Australian Gov signed up to be a SDD partner on the JSF in 2006.

    According to this AIR 6000 Doc (page 32, June 2006 Doc), they did not plan on delivery till 2018 – 2020. How has this changed?

    The original Air6000 called for delivery 2010-2012.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432016
    Jwcook
    Participant

    you’re just trolling or is it that you dont have a clue ?
    air6000 was 75% complete and we had all specs and test flew, it was assessed the rafale, gripen, typhoon, f-15, f-18ef didnt measure up to the f-35 for our requirement and so it was chosen
    if you have any fantasies that australia didnt properly evaluate the typhoon including the secret squirrel stuff, give them up

    hmm the Typhoon was test flown was it?:confused: , I’d be very interested in any link to that.

    Only force structure and costs were requested by Australia, I can’t recall the RAAF test flying either the Rafale or Typhoon, under the Air6000 project.

    Source Flight Global

    Hill claims the decision will save Australia A$600 million ($345 million) compared with selecting a fighter in an open competition. He says the government made the decision following an RAAF assessment of the eurofighter and Rafale, adding that sufficient technical and financial information was provided by BAE and assault to allow selection although no formal evaluation was made.

    The then Australian defence minister Robert Hill seems to be calling you a liar.

    cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432024
    Jwcook
    Participant

    only a fanboy would consider the typhoon superior in a2a than the f-35 and you would say the opposite australia has already assessed the typhoon in air6000 and it didnt meet our requirement for a2a or strike

    The air6000 was curtailed, there was no formal evaluation, LM’s Powerpoint presentation won. the winner being the US$35m, US version, to be delivered in 2010.

    That’s what we signed up for, since then we discover we have a ‘export’ version, its tracking for >US100m, and its delivery is 2018.

    You can add the A$6 Billion for the f18’s to cover this gap to the final cost too.

    So you go celebrate that, I shall sit back and watch the show with a big ‘I told you so’ grin..:)

    One has to wonder how the Air 6000 “assessment” was weighted, cost? risk? capability?, delivery?. LOL I’d love to see the scores.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432032
    Jwcook
    Participant

    ok, that explains it, youre an aussie who’s a typhoon fan
    as to your f-35 is replaceable by ucav, going with your claim, the typhoon would be even more replaceable

    For deep strike I would definitely send a UCAV or cruise missile, for air defence I’d go with Typhoon over JSF.

    The UK and Italy are following this model, I think Australia should too.

    List the JSF’s primary missions, compare to the raft of UCAV’s available now (let alone in 2018) and tell me If I’m wrong.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432049
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Oh BTW, whilst we’re on the subject of delays you may want to understand that your precious (I say “your” as you seem emotionally attached to it looking at your posts here and elesewhere) Typhoon was six years late. :diablo:

    Well you are of course correct, I am ’emotionally attached’, I co-maintained the http://typhoon.starstreak.net website, so you’ll have to excuse that one little vanity.

    and on the subject of UCAV vs JSF the JSf is unfortunately marketed in the very niche the UCAV is born for.

    List the JSF roles and those of UCAV and look at the overlap, you have to do some pretty fancy footwork to distinguish the two, and indeed even to justify why buy the JSF.

    cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432054
    Jwcook
    Participant

    Does anyone know why it’s so delayed? Is it the software, the airframe, or what?

    To get a large project this size off the ground (pun intended), you need to sell the idea of it being cheaper, quicker, and better than the last.

    This leads to a schedule that project engineers look at… and cry! (They know you can only ever combine any two of the following three:- quick, cheap, or good. and that’s the old project engineering triangle.)

    But the project would never go the ‘GO’ if they were to say yes it will cost 35billion, take 15 years and only be marginally better.

    So the real culprit is the people who vote in politicians who can’t take bad news, forcing program managers to be economical with the truth, in turn forcing engineers to come up with solutions that will inevitably bust budget and time constraints, which provides fuel for politicians to agitate the electorate who are then persuaded to vote in other politicians that can’t take bad news.

    With regard to the JSF its mainly the airframe thats causing problems now, but it will be the software & avionics that’s now being developed that will be the big hurdle.

    The airframe delay means the state of the art avionics is getting a bit long in the tooth (as IT lifecycles are much shorter) by the time the jet reaches service. so the engineers are faced with the problem ‘upgrade and throw away the previous work’, or continue and field obsolete equipment.

    That little problem bit the F-22 hard, I can see the same thing starting to happen with the JSF, The latest JSF 13 months delay puts the testing firmly back in the loop, and hopefully will mitigate this somewhat (The F-22 was rushed into LRIP and made ~60 Frankenstein versions).

    I think the biggest challenges will be the avionics, this will be where the JSF makes or breaks as a project, but never fear – there isn’t a plan ‘B’ so so it will take something quite astonishing to kill it stone dead, expect a large reduction in airframes and a reliance in a multitude of UAV’s to fill the gaps.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 News and Discussion #2432065
    Jwcook
    Participant

    He earned a ban for one month, with his trolling thread about the PAK-FA delay having sealed the deal. Take your pick of the silly accounts that have sprung up since then to suspect him behind.

    Is that a JSF month or a normal one?:diablo:

Viewing 15 posts - 376 through 390 (of 932 total)