I visited the DPRK in 1987, and a truly unforgettable experience it was too. I’ve had a long term interest in both the DPRK, and the PSR of Albania, which I visited twice during the 1980s. In terms of the cult of personality, there are striking similarities between those two states, and Ceausescu’s Romania.
IMO, the big unknown in this matter, is the state of relationships between the Workers Party of Korea, and the senior commanders of the DPRK armed forces.
Most, if not all, of the Communist governments of the late 20th Century, were underpinned by a combination of their own interior ministry security forces, and their regular armed forces. The regular armed forces of these countries had ‘political cadres’ attached to them, to ensure total obedience to the Party concerned. Some, but not all of these Communist Parties, had mechanised elements, to their interior ministry/state security forces. These interior ministry forces, operated independently of the regular forces, their sole mission was to ensure the survival of the regime itself, and its leaders in particular, as opposed to the defence of the country itself.
I have my own theory ref the DPRK. It could be that its not the regime that is calling the tune at the present time. I think the chances of a general uprising in the DPRK are extremely slim. The draconian control on the movements of individuals within the country, ensures that communication, even between adjacent villages, is difficult. Surely this would severely hamper the formation of a credible dissident movement. The situation for the ordinary citizen in the DPRK, is very different to that of the ordinary citizens of the now fallen Communist states of the late 20th Century. The people of the DPRK have been hermetically sealed off from the rest of the world for over 60 years. Whole generations know nothing of the outside world, or of a life without a Kim Jong of one kind or another ‘looking out’ for them. By contrast, the communist states of old, were ‘porous’ by comparison to the DPRK. Even in Socialist Albania, it was possible to watch Italian or Greek TV, but God help you if you got caught.
Might it not be, that so long as the military are well fed, and the supply of the privileges and luxuries also enjoyed by the Party members, remains uninterrupted, then apart from noisy rhetoric from Pyongyang, maybe not much will happen. However, should the senior military sense the threat of destabilisation of the regime, for whatever reason, and that could be caused by the total withdrawal of Chinese support and cooperation, then all bets could be off. Remember what happened to the Romanian dictator back in ’89? The moment the regime looked vulnerable, the military switched sides. If you remember, the regimes Securitate troops and agents battled on against the regular armed forces for several days after the regimes collapse. So in similar circumstances, what would the Pyongyang regimes security apparatus do? and whose finger is it on the nuclear button, if indeed it has one, the regime’s or the military? There seem to be a vast array of unknowns in connection with the DPRK, I think that has been a great contributing factor to its many years of survival.
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