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Vanshilar

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  • in reply to: 2018 F-35 News and Discussion #2128056
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Nope that’s false — the earlier planes will be upgraded to the current standard.

    What happened was that they studied different cost-saving approaches. One proposal was to keep the earlier jets in their current state and just use up their flight life as trainers, to save on the cost of upgrading them; the fleet will need lots of trainers after all, and this frees up other, later jets from being trainers. If the people do their due diligence after all they’re going to study lots of different proposals even if they’re not acted upon (if for no other reason then to say “yes we did consider this alternative, but we decided against it because X”). Eventually though they found that the cost of other things like software upgrades for two different “tracks” of planes over their lifetime would be more expensive than just upgrading the planes to the current standard and keeping them all in the same track. Plus, most of the planes will just be offline for a few days and it’ll cost a couple thousand dollars (i.e. Block 3i planes etc.), only a small amount need more extensive upgrades. So they’ll all be upgraded.

    This didn’t stop places like POGO and Defense Aerospace from caterwauling about how big a fiasco it is and all that. Wonder if anyone has told them about Tranche 1 Typhoons? Or Block 1 Super Hornets?

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2132755
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    The source from that is a 2008 article saying that the Gripen NG will be able to supercruise with the new engine, not that it’s actually achieved that. The plane has changed since then.

    in reply to: 2018 F-35 News and Discussion #2133321
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    No, I think we’re discussing how direct is the relationship between wing loading and fighter ceiling.

    Apparently someone read some War is Boring article about “OMG the F-35 has such a high wing loading its aerodynamic performance must suck!!!” ignoring that the F-35 has similar wing loading as the F-16, Su-35, etc.

    By the way, F-35 having a wing loading of 730 kg/m^2 means you’re assuming that it has full fuel *and* carrying over 21,000 lb of weapons…how many fighters can even carry that much? You’re talking about a load with which the maximum altitude of the Gripen (and many other planes) is exactly 0 ft since it won’t takeoff at all.

    in reply to: 2018 F-35 News and Discussion #2133386
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Seeing as how the Gripen has a much higher wing loading than the P-40, clearly the Gripen can’t reach the altitude of the P-40.

    in reply to: 2018 F-35 News and Discussion #2133603
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Spec is a lot different than actual performance though. Spec just gives a lower bound on the actual performance. For example the F-35A’s combat radius spec is 590 nm on an interdiction mission. So a lot of sources will just multiple that by 2 and say its (one-way) range is 1200 nm. Meanwhile its demonstrated combat radius on said interdiction mission profile is 669 nm, and Lockheed Martin has stated its range to be more than 1500 nm.

    In this case, the biggest indicator that the F-35’s stealth significantly exceeds its spec is that (to my knowledge) the DOT&E has never complained about it. And yes, the DOT&E *will* complain about classified specs, as it did with the Super Hornet (saying “this is bad — refer to the classified portion of the report”).

    in reply to: 2018 F-35 News and Discussion #2138863
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Hey actually the article had claimed that they scored a direct hit on the F-35 with a missile, yet it was able to return to base. In other words, clearly the F-35 has superior armor compared to the A-10 (which wouldn’t stand up to a direct missile strike), so clearly the F-35 will be able to do “down in the weeds” CAS just fine.

    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Easy, Draken.

    in reply to: Switzerland re-lauches fighter replacement programme #2153102
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    I don’t see how any of the other contenders can approach the procurement cost of Gripen E, nor the operating cost.

    Isn’t the Gripen E supposed to be around $85 million each? That puts it pretty close to the other aircraft.

    Operating cost depends wildly on what assumptions are being used and what’s being included so it’s difficult to make apples-to-apples comparisons.

    in reply to: 2017 F-35 news and discussion thread #2194329
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Belgium FMS Details released ($6.53 Billion for 34 jets)

    Quick reminder of Canada’s FMS of $5.23 billion for 18 Super Hornets back in September 2017: http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/government-canada-fa-18ef-super-hornet-aircraft-support

    in reply to: Clean Rafale & Gripen RCS is 5 m2 and 3 m2. Not .05 & .03 #2134645
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Yeah there are plenty of problems with the Saab marketing brochure.

    Since when F-35 only carry 2 AAM?

    More importantly, who in the world would use that mission profile? It assumes that the plane needs to supercruise to the CAP area, but then it assumes the pilot wants to maximize CAP time. If so, wouldn’t it make much more sense to get to the CAP area at cruise speed of around M = 0.8-0.9 so that you’re not going full military thrust on the way there and the way back? You’re only saving a few minutes anyway by supercruising with this mission profile, but you’d more than make it up with a longer CAP time.

    It’s stuff like this that makes people not really take the Saab marketing seriously. Sounds good “on paper” to get the results they want, but makes less sense the more and more you think about it.

    Compare wing loading and Thrust loading without knowing lift coefficient and equalize combat radius?. No surprised F-15E looks so much better than F-16, F-18

    The 2008 RAND report claimed that the scatter plot was based on 50% internal fuel (which disadvantages higher fuel fraction planes like the F-35 and benefits lower fuel fraction planes like the Gripen). But not only that, it arbitrarily added or subtracted weight to different aircraft at whim. For example, it only added about 7400 lb to the empty weight of the F-22 when calculating T:W and wing loading when the F-22 reportedly carries 18,000 lb of internal fuel, plus the weight of weapons. It only added about 8500 lb to the F-15E when it carries over 23,000 lb of internal fuel (including from its CFT’s) plus weapons. In other words, not only is “50% internal fuel” a bad assumption for comparing the performance of different planes, the scatter plot itself didn’t even adhere to that! If it had, the scatter plot would have shown the F-22 to be “double inferior” (lower thrust to weight, higher wing loading) to the PAK FA, F-15C, and Typhoon, but people would’ve noticed that and called BS on the plot. So instead the authors arbitrarily changed the loaded weights for each aircraft to get the results they wanted.

    My favorite example of this is the MiG-29M. The authors gave it a wing loading of 70 lb/sq ft. Since the MiG-29M has a wing area of 409 sq ft, this means that they assumed its loaded weight would be 70*409 = 28,630 lb. Yet wikipedia (I know, I know…) lists its empty weight as 29,500 lb, so the loaded weight they used for it was even lighter than its empty weight! Now, granted, they might have used the stats for the MiG-29 (rather than the M variant); but the original RAND powerpoint (not the Saab) clearly states it’s the MiG-29M, and not only that, the F-35 actually has pretty similar T:W and wing loading as the MiG-29! So any such scatter plot that has the F-35 not very close to the MiG-29 should immediately raise suspicions. But again, they didn’t want to admit that, so they just made up numbers until they got the desired results. No wonder why RAND themselves disavowed the report shortly thereafter.

    Additionally, at the time, Saab was claiming that the Gripen E would be 15,700 lb empty with 7300 lb internal fuel. As of 2015 they were saying it would be 8000 kg with 3400 kg internal fuel, or 17,600 lb empty with 7500 lb internal fuel, an increase of 12% to its empty weight, with the requisite decrease to its flight performance. Who knows what they’re claiming now…

    in reply to: Israel F-35 damaged. Bird collision or Syrian S-200 ? #2139994
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    I like how the article puts “demonstration of power” in quotes, says “alleged bird collision”, says “allegedly took place”, and puts “bird collision” in quotes. Nope, no journalistic bias there!

    Oh and of course, it saying that the price of developing the F-35 is now $406.5 billion. Apparently all ~2500 planes count as developmental planes.

    M1A2 and M2 are demolished by 100-150 kg IED but F-35 can take a direct hit from a missile that has 200 kg warhead, flying at Mach 5.

    Well you see this is why the F-35 is perfect for CAS, apparently it can take even more damage than the A-10, I’ll be sure to cite this article the next time someone brings up the titanium bathtub!

    in reply to: 2017 F-35 news and discussion thread #2142188
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Pure BS. F-35 were not there during first week of Atlantic trident

    Do you have a source for that? I mean, it’s easy enough to find contemporary accounts such as here talking about the F-35 flying during the first week. It’s more likely that the Greek article mistakenly wrote April 12 – 18 instead of the correct dates of Atlantic Trident (April 12 – 28).

    On the other hand, contemporary reports do talk about that the F-22’s, F-35’s, Rafales, and Typhoons were “blue air” and not fighting against each other.

    in reply to: JF-17 vs J-10 vs LCA #2142862
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Some people prefer wrong information instead of no information.

    in reply to: 2017 F-35 news and discussion thread #2144674
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    But tbh, if it happens it will still be a big failure of program management.

    If you truly believe so then shouldn’t you also be in the Typhoon thread posting about how not upgrading their Tranche 1 planes is also horrible program management? Not to mention the F-22 and (IIRC) the Block 1 Super Hornet as well.

    If France decided to upgrade all Rafales to the current standard then it would be the exception, not the rule. More likely a waste of money for France than anything else when few others bother to do that.

    in reply to: 2017 F-35 news and discussion thread #2146375
    Vanshilar
    Participant

    Hmm. I wish they had a breakdown of the cost of the individual items. Oh well.

    Looking around for comparables for FMS customers using the DSCA website:

    Iraq ordered 18 F-16IQ’s for $2.3 billion ($128 million each) in 2012: http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/iraq-f-16-aircraft
    Japan ordered 42 F-35A’s for $10 billion ($238 million each) in 2012: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/japan_12-15.pdf
    Australia ordered 12 Super Hornets and 12 Growlers for $3.7 billion ($154 million each) in 2013: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/australia_13-05_0.pdf
    South Korea ordered 60 F-35A’s for $10.8 billion ($180 million each) in 2013: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/korea_13-10_0.pdf
    Pakistan ordered 8 F-16 Block 52 for $699 million ($87 million each) in 2016: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/pakistan_15-80.pdf
    Kuwait ordered 40 F/A-18E/F for $10.1 billion ($252.5 million each) in 2016: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/kuwait_16-21.pdf
    Qatar ordered 72 F-15QA’s for $21.1 billion ($293 million each) in 2016: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/qatar_16-58.pdf
    Bahrain ordered 19 F-16V’s for $2.785 billion ($147 million each) in 2017: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/bahrain_16-60.pdf

    And now this latest one of:

    Canada ordered 18 Super Hornets for $5.23 billion ($291 million each) in 2017: http://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/canada_17-49_1.pdf

    Granted, not all FMS are the same; each has different amounts of related support. But looking at the per-airplane costs in the past, I’m not sure how the Super Hornets are supposed to be cheaper.

    (I know I phrased these as “ordered” when that’s not what the DSCA says, it says it’s just notifying of a possible sale with an estimated price. The actual prices may have been different and not all of these may have gone through.)

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 108 total)