http://navy-matters.beedall.com/
This makes a lot of things clear!
Since when was it the plan to launch HMS QE as a Helicopter carrier for 3 years? That’s not what the SDSR said at all. He’s being a bit of a doom monger in his latest piece, not difficult in these fiscally tight times I guess.
That’s not what the MoD told me when I asked them, nor what parliament was told last week.
I have high respect for the analysis of Richard-Beedall
His last article contains some errors, it’s true :rolleyes:
I think (tell me if I’m wrong ?) that currently (unfortunately things will change again …:rolleyes:) both these aircraft-carriers must carry catapults, HMS Queen-Elizabeth will enter service +/- around 2020 and HMS Prince of Wales around +/- 2023, after some further delays to finalize catapults design, buy it and modify the carrier design…
But despite these errors, as a whole, he is right …
And I confess that my personal view is even more pessimistic …
The simple answer is no!
India has already stated that it might well take further options on the P8I they have ordered.
I fully agree
[*]Modified comerical design, similar to what the PLAN did with its Type 920 hospital ship
Hi Phil,
For me, the “modified commercial” option was maybe the best cheaper and effective solution
Number ?
Hmmm, up to 4 ships because:
– Hospital and humanitarian ops were clearly “trendy”, and infortunatly:(, with a poverty expected to exist even trought the 21 st century in many country, I think that a specialized ship were very effective, but only affordable for the largest navy
– Number for US navy, up to 4 (this figure allow a reasonable number of 2 ships at sea, ready for any catastrophic event and ensure the US aid* around the world).
* A humanitaria aid mainly in central america, africa and in few asiatic/pacific country’s.
Well, using the 2020-2025 timeframe, by which j20 should achieve full operational capability
Hmmm, more likely around 2016-2018……
J-10: 1st flight by 1998, full ops by 2003/2005…:rolleyes:
and knowing how many which planes plaaf/planaf currently has, plus knowing their age, I’ll make the following guesstimate:
By 2025 j20 will replace all the j8I and j8II planes in plaaf and planaf. That is currently around 300 planes, though it may not be realistic to expect replacement on 1to1 basis. furthermore, by 2020 alone, there will be some 70 flankers which will be 25 years old, 30 years old by 2025. I expect those to be replaced by j20 as well. Again, perhaps not in the same timeframe, so overall plaaf/planaf numbers will probably drop.
Then we have additional 200 or so flankers (j11a and su30) which will be around 20 years old. Replacement period for those, I believe, is more realistic to expect around 2025-2030 timeframe.
While most of jh7, specifically, jh7a, are of newer origin, there are, i believe, two squadrons of jh7, the original variant, which will by 2020 be 25 years old. Now those may or may not be replaced by j20 but we can’t really tell as we don’t know j20’s mission profile and role.
All in all, IF plaaf/planaf wanted a 1on1 replacement for all its fighter and fighter/bombers, it’d have to put in service some 430 j20 by 2025 and another 200-250 by 2030. Assuming mass production can start in 2018., that gives 8 years for 430 jets and 13 years for little under 700 jets. Seems certainly doable.
All that being said, i do believe it’s unlikely we will see 1on1 replacements and my gut feeling produced total by 2030 will be closer to 400, with rest of the planes being replaced by j11b. Mostly old J8s and such.
Also, if j20 won’t have much of a bomber/striker in it, which it very well may not, then jh7s will be replaced by something else. If j20 ends up being purely an air superiority fighter, then we are sure to see a 5th gen stealth striker/bomber to replace jh7s, and perhaps even a slightly larger design which would then replace both jh7s and h6s.
Current China Air Force (estimation):
J-11 (Chinese copy of SU-27): +/- 200 built by 1998-2010
J-10 (Chinese built): 180+ built by 2002 to 2010. Maybe few additional dozens by 2011-2013 before production line close…
SU-30: +/- 150, built through the 2000’s
SU-27: +/- 70 built by 1998-2004
J-8 (Chinese built): +/- 180 built by 1979-early 2000
J-7 (Chinese copy of Mig-21): 400 to 600+, built by mid 1960’s/1990’s
With a aircraft able to have a service life of 30 years (obviously this depend of number of flight hours), it become clear that the J-20 was intended to replace all ageing/obsolete Chinese aircrafts (J-7/J-8) = 400 to 600+ aircrafts to be replaced
I think that the J-20 will be fully produced (200 to 400 ? even more ?) by 2014-2022 before a newer highly stealthly aircraft (maybe even much more capable than US counterpart) begin to appear (J-22 ?, J-28 ?) around 2020/2023 to replace all others aircrafts (SU-27/30; J-10/11) around 2025+
Great pictures for a [futur] great plane, better and more capable than the F-35:D
OV-10 Bronco on US LHA…
Amazing that on this forum, many people believe that this will be the first real flight of this aircraft. Gentlemen, let’s see
It is very likely that the aircraft has already made its first real flight in recent months. This current expected Takeoff will be only the first official
You really think the Chinese would take the risk of a first flight was filmed live by the fan-aviation community. You imagine the disaster if the plane crashed in the first take-off and it is filmed by fans, the shame would be immense for the country. Same for the Russian PAK FA (the plane had take-off well before)
In addition it is a military aircraft! :rolleyes:
No, for me this J-20 Chinese already taken-off for weeks at least 😀
French maritime patrol aicraft “Breguet Atlantic 2”:
– 28 delivered by july 1989/november 1997 (to replace ageing Breguet Atlantic 1).
– After one nearly crash (in 2007), only 27 aircrafts were usable.
– Currently, 22 aircrafts were expected to be heavily modernised to remain in service until 2030 (the 5 others were likely to be used a spare-part).
First phase of modernisation (2010/2014), improvement of datalink, acoustic systems, launching buoy systems.
Second phase of modernisation (2015/2018), improvement of radars, FLIR identification, communications systems, self-protection.
Maximum endurance: 18 hours
Maximum range: +/- 8000km
Now all aircrafts based at Lanveoc-Poulmic (in Brittany) (not far away from UK:rolleyes: and their EEZ waters)
Hmmm, beautiful newer figther-bomber. Maybe mass-built by 2015/2020…
But he acknowledged the F-35B has technical issues, particularly in the transition from horizontal to vertical flight….”
LOL
A strategic capabilitie for the F-35B :D:D:D
The way the RAF is acting, DO NOT be surprised if they start pushing for a change to the “A” model with the argument that it will save money and get more capability.
Highly probable,
But this “turn-choice” = “end of british carrier based naval aviation”
Wait & See by 2011/late 2015 (up to 6+ months after the next british general elections:rolleyes:).
🙁
Takes time to redesign graphics.
Like that 😀
She is going to be fitted with cats and traps. It was pretty much confirmed she is going to be the operative carrier. Questions remain on if Prince of Wales will be kitted out as well or not. However, even if she’ll be a “Carrier Strike”, it will actually work as carrier + LPH.
Most of the time, it will embark 12 F35C (hopefully), 4 MASC (hopefully), plus Royal Marines, helicopters from the Commando Helicopter Force, army visitors Chinook and Apache, and such. We are looking forwards more to a US-Marines style LHA than a real Carrier Strike platform.
Yep,
I agree totally
Personnal view about a British C1 (a scaled-down version of the Type 45 hull with many Type 26 features)
It is hard to imagine a cancellation of the F35B… But it sure isn’t having an easy life, and the proposals to kill it… well. They are too many and too frequent to be counted, already, and this new, nasty find is going to be the hardest blow to the programme from when the B variant failed to meet its range and payload requirements and the Weapon Bays had to be shortened.
By the way, Reading Navy News of November, you make some interesting discovers, too:
HMS Illustrious and HMS Ocean apparently will both survive for now. One will be “active” but the other won’t be decommissioned, but put into extended readiness “until Queen Elizabeth enters service.”
Considering that HMS Illustrious soon will come out of refit, i think the plan might be to have Lusty serving for a year or so as Commando carrier, while Ocean undergoes her own 2011 Refit as planned. When Ocean comes back into service, Lusty will be put in extended readiness, and finally written off when Queen Elizabeth goes operative.
This based on the fact that HMS Ocean is undoubtedly “the better platform for helicopter assault operations” (you don’t need a study to know that, anyway…) and its OSD was reported being 2022 in Minister’s responses in 2008 or 2009, with a OSD for Illustrious of 2016.
One has to hope that, although Ocean is not aging as well as we’d like because of how she was built, the OSD was planned with considerations on the state of the two ships.500 Royal Marines are going to be lost in the next five years.
ALL Sea Kings, and it includes the ASaC specifically, will bow out within 2016.
I highly doubt MASC will come that soon, so we are probably going to see a gap of four years at best before an AEW platform for the new carrier is acquired.
Just as i had imagined.
No idea of what will replace the Junglies.
In the interests of the Navy and Marines, and for the future of the LPH itself, i suggest finding the pennies and take the 8 not-updated Merlin HM1 and the 4 storage airframes, remove sonars and everything from them and put seats for Marines into them. 12 Merlin, fully navalized, to transport marines, to equip a single Squadron absorbing the current HC4 formations, to be able to equip the LPH before the UK is left in the laughable position of having not just carriers without planes but amphibs without helos too.For the MASC, in time, the Hawkeye can be considered again and hopefully funded. It is not much a matter for choice, after all (that’s easy done) but of getting funding. First Sea Lord please take note, and exploit the Frenchies and the climate of “collaboration wanted” to get something nice for once!
The SAR work seems to be going away from the MOD and towards the Ministry for Transports, so hopefully the money for the new choppers will also come from civvys, and not from the MOD…
Of course though, this means that RAF and Royal Navy are going out of the SAR business by 2016, with closure of squadrons such as 203 RAF. Fate of 84 Squadron (SAR for RAF in Cyprus with Bell 212) is at this point even more uncertain, and the two Sea King SAR in the Falklands also are a mystery. Will they be replaced? How?
And is it feasible to have a Navy and Air Force totally out of the SAR work…?
Almost every one (hell, even Italy’s Air Force) by now has a squadron of choppers for C-SAR duty. RAF and RN… nothing.
Another thing that, like the loss of Nimrod, makes eyebrows arch.A 2018 date for retirement of Sandown and Hunt is indicated, but i will say myself that they will undoubtedly serve MANY more years in reality. (no money to seek replacements, that is)
HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark will “alternate” in High Readiness (and Flagship role, until the CVF arrives). Bulwark is coming out of its refit, so we can safely assume that the current flagship HMS Albion is goint into “very low readiness” as Navy News tells, as soon as Bulwark is back in service.
HMS Albion would come back into action the next time Bulwark will be out for refit, alternating into service and reserve.
For now, HMS Albion is the Flagship of the navy, and recently staged exercise Wet Raider, interesting because the PACSCAT prototype landing craft was used in the exercise and thus tested very hard. The Marines are reportedly very happy of it, and it handled the Vicking vehicles as planned.
The PACSCAT is going to be tested at Instow soon to see how it handles the Challenger II.My personal comment is that, if 10 PACSCAT can be acquired (LCU MK11?) to equip training unit, Albion and Bulwark, the 10 LCU MK10 can cover the Bay LSD(A) and push finally out of service the remaining LCU MK9, also those used by the Royal Logistic Corps.
I hope the PACSCAT story does not end in misery because of the damn budget…One Bay class LSD(A) is, as we know, bowing out.
Why can’t Uk quietly follow the italian example for once and use part of the “International Aid” budget to keep the amphibs going…? Here the Navy gets money to build amphibs from the Aid Department since they are the vessels that are then used to bring help to disaster-struck locations and such.
Can’t the UK Department of Aid “adopt” Largs Bay…? 😀 It is such a shame to lose her…Similarly, here projects such as the F35 procurement are not financed just my the Ministry of Defence: Italy’s government finances such programmes (Typhoon too, and many others) with Industry Support funds in light of the great effect such programmes have on High Technology industry and because of how many jobs they create…
That’s how Italy’s ministry of defence buys so much good kit despite the Military Budget being surprisingly small.Time for Liam Fox to get inventive and fight for a share of money for his department too. 😀 Instead of paying for SAR helos that the military will never touch and that will work (and gain visibility every time someone is saved) for the Ministry of Transports…
Interesting opinion…