Don’t talk about 20 year projections because in the real world they don’t mean **** other than in general trends. For example, a big component of the projected operating costs of the F-35 are on-going software development and maintenance….anyone that can be certain of future software costs has never worked on a real project…..that is aside from the fact that there aren’t enough F-35s flying over many years with a fleet that can give actual operating costs to work out meaningful hourly rates…..buying it is one thing and operating it is another (something to consider for smaller countries not spending $600 billion a year with a 500 tanker fleet as part of its operating doctrine).
For example, you posted best characteristics for CAS aircraft (look up your posting history)….would suit cheap planes like Scorpion etc., long loiter time, cheap operating costs etc. etc. but at the same time can’t admit using a $100m F-35 with expensive operating costs, short legs etc. is overkill.
Replacing so many types F-16, F-15, A-10 etc. means compromises and the costs are not justified.
A huge engine like the F135 on the F35 cannot be hidden no matter what new strategies are adopted to mitigate heat signature of the exhaust just based on simple physics. The F-35 is not all aspect low observable….the plane has to ingress, drop its bombs, then has to get the hell of there with an engine of forty-odd thousands pounds of thrust that is pretty hard to hide with ever improving strategies to counter.
Another example: you keep peddling the F-35 to India (including on other forums)….wake me up when America has a strategic relationship like India has with Russia, and starts delivering Virginia class nuclear attack submarines to India! Russia supplied the technology for miniaturised nuclear sub reactors, supplied nuclear attack Akula II subs, plus other goodies like Brahmos (forget the notional 290km MCTR limit!). That’s not to say the US won’t have a strategic alliance in the future (if only to counter China); or F-35B won’t be bought (only because no other VTOL replacement for the harrier).
With the Rafale, India gets to maintain its freedom of movement with no strings, including nuclear strike (giving a wide array of nuclear responses, not just inflexible nuclear ballistic missiles), with the added bonus of Rafale M available if required to supplement air wings on the new carriers. The Rafale is more than good enough to deal with most local threats for the foreseeable future. Later on, PAK-FA and indigenous 5th and 6th generations will only enhance India’s potent defence force.
Eventually, India will do well with latter versions of the LCA….increasing production to 16 a year is the first step…..the original was a meter too short….the requirement to fit HAS and other infra based on the small Mig-21 footprint made it hard to pack in a lot and limiting development potential….the recent partnership with SAAB will help develop the LCA to its full potential speedily without having to re-invent the wheel….mark 2 and 3 will be really potent.
The involvement of the private sector will help future development….state owned HAL was starved of funds and that won’t be a problem for billionaires like the Ambanis and Tatas who want to make even more money! (nothing wrong with a company wanting to maximise profit…..that’s their reason to exist…just ask Lockmart!).
A Good post based on ground realities.
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