In a sense it is sad that Dassault withdrew the Mirage 2000 from the MMRCA contest – it might have been nice to see India going into a joint Franco-Indian partnership. LCA could have been an M-88 powered Mirage-esque Delta, complementing more Mirage 2000s in the fighter and strike roles. Then for the newer generation type, the Rafale would be bought, all built under license in India. The Indian Navy would then have bought a conventionally powered CdG derivative, and Rafales. Potentially all these aircraft could even have used a common radar model, though in different sizes. From what I have heard, the IAF were very pleased with their M2000s, and very high reliability rates, especially compared to many of the Russian types.

With all due respect this would have seen India becoming overly dependent on France, something the former does not want to happen. Take Russia as an example, who does not seem to be warming up to current Indian intentions of diversifying their suppliers.

MCA is not dead, MCA is not sanctioned officially by MOD yet as well, MCA is independent of PAKFA. Work on MCA has begun long back. The end.

Joey, MCA (if it is a true 5th gen machine) cannot be independent of PAK-FA project. Regardless of growing indian economy, India simply cannot afford to develop and operate two 5th gen fighters over next 20-30 years…only nation capable of doing so in the forseeble future is US of A, and that is precisely what she is going to do (F/22 and JSF). Having signed the contract for joint production of PAK-FA, MCA will have to be put on backburner and/or may be turned into a UCAV type of project to become operational beyond 2030. I know India is a big country which needs a big airforce. But all modern air forces are trying to reduce the number of operational aircrafts by increasing their lethality. Having squadrons of MKI, LCA, MMRCA, and PAK-FA where and how exactly would IAF fit MCA into service between 2020-30?

ain’t gonna happen. the IN is the most indigenous friendly of all the three services, since they’re always hampered by lower budgets and in most cases, indigenous products are much cheaper and as good as foreign imports within a few iterations. it would be interesting to see the PAK-FA’s naval variant- apparently the IN may be the driver for a carrier capable PAK-FA. a 3 aircraft fighter fleet for the IN seems to be not quite so streamlined.

I too dont think that NLCA will be dumped as easily. I think IN has probably given more support to LCA project than IAF and is also probably more serious at purchasing it in required numbers.

As for a 3 aircraft fighter fleet for IN, that might be slightly far fetched. I mean, how many carriers, IN plans to have over next 20-30 years? Even if the figure is 4 or 5 (probably way over optimistic), i think a 3 aircraft fleet might be a bit too much.

if the Tejas were to be dumped now, India will never have a credible aerospace industry, except for making parts for major aerospace companies here and there. And that is not what India wants. the goal would be self-reliance in the fighter/UCAV sphere and Regional jets designed and produced in India and that is not going to happen if all the knowhow gained is thrown away because of some design issues with an otherwise sound aircraft.

Although i agree with this statement, it does give rise to some interesting question. MKI is essentially a Russian product that was modified with Indian help and produced in India under licence. MMRCA would essentially be the same. PAK-FA…well all indications are that its going to be another MKI type project. LCA is the only project that is being designed and fighters will be produced in India, though they would form the lower tier of IAF. I personally dont have many hopes for MCA for one simple reason. COSTS…Take a look at JSF in spite of all the spin offs from F-22. Any true 5th gen fighter would be damn expensive for India (alone) and im not sure that even with growing economy India will be able to afford it in required numbers. So where does it leave Indian aerospace industry??? Do they jump to UCAV development straight from LCA (like some of their European counterparts)? If so, do they have the required expertise???

Current US F-35 prices are based on 2458 units (all variants) for the USA.

Fixed costs are half the total cost of the F-22 programme. Shows how important the number produced is for unit cost.

Precisely.

Numbers (units produced) are hugely important in this respect. F-35’s design/development would have been a lot more expensive and taken longer, if it was not for the experience/spin offs from F-22 programme (decades of development) and the fact that its not as stealthy. Considering PAK-FA is Russia’s first true 5th gen fighter (and we’ll only be certain after official final designs are released) and if its to be capable as even F-35 (let alone F-22), then development costs and unit price will have to reflect this. To be honest, i can’t imagine Russia being able to produce 2000 units unless things change drastically by 2015/20 (a more likely timeframe for PAK-FA).

Originally Posted by vikasrehman
F-35’s price estimates are based on around 2000 (not sure about the exact figure). …

F-35 prices are quoted in 2002 dollars, but the price estimates are updated regularly. The programme unit cost (including development & other fixed costs) for the USA is currently predicted to be $85.2 mn at 2002 prices, & $122 mn at “then-year” (the price actually paid, including a prediction of future inflation) prices. The average price of each aircraft excluding fixed costs, was estimated at the end of 2006 to be $69 mn in 2002 dollars, or $76 mn in 2006 dollars.

I meant to say 2000 units and not year 2000…it was my bad.

Anyhow, your post does make one wonder about the price of a PAK-FA unit with and without R&D costs.

1. US is famous for wasting money for one project developing many types of proto vehicles. Like YF-23.

I wouldn’t call that wasting money. It creates competition, and the manufacturers have to try their best on all fronts to win the competition. Besides, other technologies can an have be used in a useful manner, i.e. YF-17 became F-18 (and look at it today). As for YF-23, well u never know. USAF does plan to have a fighter bomber by 2020 or so.:)

2. In US R&D costs manytimes more than that of Russia and India. Because of both labor and raw material price in domestic market.

This is absolutely correct. But then US R&D spending is several times higher than anywhere in ROW.

3. Russia already developed and pioneered many technologies like advanced weapon systems, super maneuverable FCS, TVC and stealth etc from SU-47, MiG MFI, SU-30 MKI, MIG-35, SU-35.

So did US. For example, TVC although first incorporated into F-22 had already been tested in F-16 back in 90s. Stealth started with F-117, and composites materials/RAMs etc had been undergoing tests for years…most of which prbably has nothing to do with F-22 R&D.

While Russia does have the capability to pursue R&D, the real question is if it has the finances. While they probably have managed to reduce the RCS of (lets say) a flanker by 10 fold, doing it by another 10 fold and another 10 fold will be 10 and 100 times more difficult and as expensive. We have heard that SU-30 would use Plasma tech. t would be interesting to see if/how Russians have managed to overcome problems such as plasma interference with fighter radar. Fighters like F-22 do not only have very very small RCS but various ther innovations such as reduced IR signature (changes to engine, nozles, re-circulation of cooler fuel around the fighter frame etc) and avionics with LPI. Even F-35 had to cut across so many corners (including a compromise on its RCS) due to R&D funding issues. Lets see what PAK-FA would look.

4. Russia sold India SU-30 MKI for about $ 40-45 mn a piece which is a dual seater, twin engine long range heavy fighter with PESA radar and TVC. Is it possible for US to sell same type of fighter at that price??

40-45 million dollar a piece???
I was under the impression that it was more like 60 or so. Anyway, most US packages include training, maintenance etc. Did MKI package include all that? Having said this, i do agree that Russian products are cheaper to buy. But are they as easy to maintain/run/reliable as their western counterparts?

Because JSF is a dud. It would bring no benefit at all to Indian aviation industry. It would be overpriced (2-3 times PAK-FA’s),Heavily degraded and overall a very mediocre aircraft. It would come with only american weapons which are useless to IAF. IAF did not reject the offer for JSF on an impulse. They thought about it and took a rational decision. JSF is a multi national project and will need to fulfill their needs beore IAF’s needs are met. Regarding russian avionics, what makes you think Russia will offer the best stuff to India? They would offer better stuff compared to chinese, but if something doesn’t meet IAF specs and needs to be changed it will be replaced. MKIzing also means heavy ToT’s (not an option for JSF) and ability to integrate weapons IAF likes. Then last but not the least russia is still trusted more than americans .

Vikas I agree interactions might increase but I don’t see Russia being displaced in any manner. Relations can be increased by sale of stuff that russia cannot/ does not offer like the Jalashwa and hopefully Nashville.

Broncho, once again you have got the wrong end of the stick. I used JSF as an example merely to highlight improving/increasing/expanding relations between India and US. I was NOT questioning how India would balance its relations with US and Russia but that if Russia and India would have certain restrictions on PAK-FA’s deployment (perhaps something on the lines of IPR agreement).

With regard to the price of PAK-FA, you stated JSF would be 2-3 times more expensive. How could one say this, when price estimates for JSF are based on production of around 2000 (?) units, no one knows how many PAK-FA units will be produced, and current inflation rate in Russia is 9-11%?

What growing relationship with west? India just signed a deal for $ 5bil for Pak-Fa and another for $ 600 mil for MRTA with Russia. The red flag is just another exercise and does not mean Su-30 MKI will be compromised. The PAK-FA will be MKIzed so russian AF is never likely to suffer.

A decade or so ago, i dont think any sane individual person would have considered F-16/F-18 to be serious contenders in MMRCA nor that US would offer JSF to India. IAF has been involved in aerial exercises with a number of wetern countries in recent years, once again something difficult to be envisaged a few years back. I guess ‘growing relationship’ is one way of describing such development.

PS. Please note i didnt say that this happening at Ind/Russ expense. Yet iff Russ/Ind versions of PAK-FA have same design and iff Russian relations keep deteriorating, i dont think Russia would be in a hurry to show off a major weapon system to west/US. In any case lets see how many F-22 US fields against MKI in Red Flag.