vikasrehmanSingle engined PAKFA for India and double engined for Russia? I highly doubt it.
Agreed.
Imagine the development costs.
vikasrehmanI came across a news report in Defense News stating that Indian DM has approved a $25 mil budget for IAF to participate in Red Flag exercises, and that flankers alongside IL-78 tankers will take part in these exercises. While flankers have already participated in exercises against various air forces, Red Flag is probably the most sophisticated exercises where they would be tested in a big way.
Having said this Russian/US relations are deteriorating by the day and i cant really see them improving for sometime. PAK-FA would undoubtedly be Russia’s next major weapon against west/Nato etc. Considering India’s ever growing military relationship with west/US, how different do yous think that Russian/Indian version of this aircraft would be? Would there be any conditions on deployment of this machine. If the two versions are different, how would this affect the costs???
vikasrehmanNo country in the world has budget surplus the size of russia and it grow every year. and every country development cycle is different and interpretation is different.. they managed to complete Sukhoi SSJ and Su-34 in much worse time. this is country which continue to get olympic and european gold medals without foreign coaches and african immigrants in worse economic systems.
this is from Putin mouth. and u will not know the operational status of domestic variant of PAK-FA any way.
Back in mid 90s US had a huge surplus, but did that money get diverted to defence R&D?:)
We have heard so much about Russian 5th gen fighter’s flight in past…quoting high ranking officials…that it’d make its first flight in 2006 or so? Where is it? Why so much delay?
IAF only expects its version by 2017-18. Russia is certainly not short on cash thanks to oil prices.
Compare its defence spending and defence-related R&D funding with US. Does it come close?
vikasrehmanIf the Russians have slowed down the PAK-FA program, it means that defense funds have been shifted to other more necessary programs.
Funding a 5th gen fighter is by now means cheaps. Onle only has to take a look at the developing costs of F-22/JSF for a rough comparison…even US had to invite a number of nations for JSF programme and that’s not as stealthy as F-22. That’s why Russian were so desperately looking for a partner. OTOH, from what i know, Russian official funding for a AF related R&D is peanuts compared to US, and that’s why a number of their products are so heavily dependent on exports.
vikasrehmanI see no way that the PAK FA will enter service by 2015, if first flight is in 2012. Look at other fighters and when they have enered squadron service (10 years Rafale, 10 years Eurofighter, 8 years F-22 etc.). I speak about squadron service not some examples delivered to an air force test centre for evaluation this might happen earlier. I don’t see the PAK entering service with the RuAF much before 2020 and at that time it still won’t be mature.
Precisely.
I have never been able to understand one thing hough. Why on earth Russian (defence officials and industrialists alike) insist and keep insisting on such stupidly optimistic dates? I use the word stupid bacause that’s what it is…impossible to achieve. Back in 2002 and so when even reputable sources like Janes were quoting high ranked russian officials about Russian 5th gen fighter making its first flight in 2006 or, it sounded stupid even to a novice like myself who could only compare those figures against the backdrop of other fighter programmes. It was beyond me then and it is beyond me now.:)
vikasrehmanMilitary sales are among the largest trades currently happening. Defense is of vital importance to Iran – they will not make strategic partnership with anyone unwilling or unable to provide complete ‘service’.
Who has been able to provide them anything decent/advanced since 80s? In spite of this Russia has come to their diplomatic support time and again.
We can safely assume that Iran and Cina won’t find common ideologies anytime soon…
Iran-Venezvuela
Iran-Cuba
Iran-Bolivia
Common ideologies??? Dont think so. But only certain aspects of their political ideologies.
On long term someone will have to.. Iranians won’t be flying the persian cats forever and their Azarraksh and Saeqeh projets are just a media bubble.
How long this ‘long term’ would be depends on several factors. Right now Russia stands to gain more than China by selling weapons to Iran. Instead of useless provocative flights over atlantic or building more nuclear missile, Russia can show agressiveness/assertiveness by selling offensive equipment to Iran etc. OTOH, China does not want a stronger Taiwan (which would undoubtedly happen if they sell such things to Iran now) or more tension with US.
PS. The whole point of my debate was to say that one must interpret such news items appearing in such media outlets in such fashion with a big pinch of salt.:)
vikasrehmanNowadays you won’t make strong strategic partners with F-7s. If I was in charge, in their position I would sell the J-10 to whoever commited to buy, only somewhat limiting the numbers for controversal customers in order to keep the US calm. My 0.02..
Selling weapons is not the oly way to make strategic partners. There are other ways too, in particular ideologies/support etc. For example Russia which could have completed Bushrer years ago has not done so for dubious reasons (the real reason should b clear enough to anyone), not sold them anything meaningful besides short range SAMs, yet extended their full diplomatic support at almost all steps. China would do exactly the same thing. They dont need to sell J-10 to China to prove their support to them.
vikasrehmanUS would not risk tensions with China for some meaningless two squadrons of fighters for IRIAF, unless they shift the balance of power (which they don’t).
You are absolutely right.
And at the same time China does not want to raise the tensions with US at any cost (unless of course Taiwan declares independence or does something of the sort) and so keep its economic growth.
OTOH, take a look at the situation Taiwan strait. Over the years the technology gap between PLAAF and RoCAF has been reduced quite considerably, while certain ministries in US establishment in particular state dept. have opposed the sale of modern equipment to RoCAF…for a number of reasons. However, Taiwan has been becoming increaingly vocal in its demands and recently a non-binding resolution in US was passe which urges pres Bush to sell modern F-16s to RoCAF. The question we have to ask is, does China really want this to happen?
If China sells 24 J-10 to Iran, undoubtedly US would sell larger number of F-16s/other stuff to Taiwan. While sale of chinese weapons wouldn’t seriously hamper any possible US plans for Iran, this would considerably bolster Taiwan’s armed forces…something that China does not want. Whereas one can argue about all aspects of this news, it is entirely possible that it was a made up story leaked to russian media by chinese as a warning to Americans that ‘if u sell Taiwan any F-16s, we’d sell Iran our best’.
vikasrehmanSorry Mig-23, but ur argument is getting weaker and weaker by the minute.:) To be frank, u seem to take things at their face value when they suit ur arguments (the way u have used a single news article-most likely by a non defence journalist and most probably without corroboration or solid source-that copied over and over by different news outlets) and don’t when they counter ur arguments (chines official authorities denying the news).
Yeah crobato it must means that russia is not helping Iran in the building of the nuclear reactor uhmm but still Russia is imposing sanctions uhmmm funny, this a poor attempt to create the image all these countries share the same point of view, ah by the way it must mean the US directs the foreign policy of China and Russia
On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured Iran that Moscow would not back out of a 1 billion U.S. dollar contract to complete a nuclear power plant in the Iranian port of Bushehr. Putin’s remarks followed talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a summit of Caspian Sea nations in Tehran. The United States and other Western nations oppose the construction of the reactor, and believe that it is part of an effort by Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Its a project worth mere 1 billion dollars. Its definitely not a mega project, but more of a medium scale one. Yet how long has Russia been delaying it? Ever wondered why? Compare that with the delivery of Tor-M1???
vikasrehmanIn the world of Politics a peace treaty can be broken, politicians usually break what they say, however in this case the most likely is China won`t sell the J-10s but only time will tell there must be a reason why the Russians and Israelies reported that.
One possible answer is the Russian report was a misquoting or a misunderstanding or simply there are rumours that China will sell the J-10s.
However consider that denying it means also 100% veracity is like Hitler`s words to Chamberlian or the nazi-soviet peace treaty.
At this moment probably the report of China selling the J-10 most likely is wrong but only time will tell
Its almost mind boggling to see someone quoting so many articles from so many different sources (in so many threads) and yet taking them all at their face value. We are living in 21st century surrounded by media, and news spreads like fire probably cos free lance journalists also have to make their living. In today’s world, such news item (for which you are unlikely to get sued) are just reported without many authors even bothering to check their reliability.
By your logic, i guess we’d also have to wait and see about the ‘reported’ sales of flankers/foxhounds/S-300 etc to Iran.:D
vikasrehmanThe very notion that the Iranian military is capable of inflicting any significant harm on a US/Allied fleet in the Persian Gulf is, imho, ridiculous.
While Iranian military might do a thing or two in case of bombing/conflict as face saving measures, i think Iranians would most likely use their influence with Irqi shiites to inflict max poss damage on Americans while possily using their ballistic missiles to target Israel in the same way as Saddam did in GW1 (if its more than a few bombing raids). Things in Iraq have calmed down slightly over past couple of months, which is not the result of the surge (as most would want us to believe) but rather american deals with sunni tribal leaders. After the invasions, Americans totally ignored the Sunni population, who in turn either provided help to insurgents or simply didnt coopearte with Americans…and we have seen the lethal power of insurgency over past couple of years. With Turks increasingly becoming frustrated with Kurds/US, i dont think US would be in any mood to anagonise the shiite population of Iraq (for now at least) and any attack on Iran would surely do so to a large chunk of this population.
vikasrehmanChina maybe using Iran as a bargaining chips to force US stop sales of weapons to ROC Taiwan.
US has not signed a deal to sell F-16s to Taiwan as of yet. If i remember correctly, although a non-binding resolution with regard to weapons sales to Taiwan got through recently, Bush and state dept are against this particular sale (for the time being at least). Any major chinese sale to Iran (of this nature) would of course trigger a big response from US. Just recently Russia sold some short range SAMs (purely of defesive nature) to Iran and both US/Israel made such hoo haa. Imagine either of them selling any weapons of offensive nature to Iran. As of now Iran would probably be more interested i aquiring something like S-300, i.e. long range SAM system instead of these fighters which would mot likely be destroyed rather quickly in case of a major conflict.
vikasrehmanI was talking about politically, i.e. UN sanctions. If Iran is going to start buying Chinese arms of significant value it’s going to be a lot more difficult to get China to agree to punishing resolutions.
Iran and China already have plenty of common interests. With situation deteriorating in Taiwan strait chinese have to be careful. If Iran wanted to bribe someone in this way to get their support, Russia would be a more logical choice considering their increaing aggressiveness towards west and current political climate (especially missile shield) between US and Russia.
vikasrehmanConsidering Iranian isolation at present and divisions within their own ranks about nuclear issue, i think IRNA or ISNA would have beating their drums if this news was official or had a some solid sources. While i can imagine China selling something like J-8IIM or JH-7 to Iran, J-10 is a far fetched idea. Even JF-17 is a long shot considering Pakistan’s involvement in that project as well as F-16s.
With regard to the idea of using Novotsi/Haretz etc as a source to prove a point such as ‘J-10 is based on Lavi’-without them quoting any proof-is absurd and laughable.
vikasrehmanConsidering Iranian isolation at present and divisions within their own ranks about nuclear issue, i think IRNA or ISNA would have beating their drums if this news was official or had a some solid sources. While i can imagine China selling something like J-8IIM or JH-7 to Iran, J-10 is a far fetched idea. Even JF-17 is a long shot considering Pakistan’s involvement in that project as well as F-16s.
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