vikasrehmanBut, where does the Indo-Russian Fifth gen fighter come into the scheme? and no mention of the MCA either. the ACM was most likely reflecting on the force structure right after the Bison, MiG-27, MiG-29, Jaguars and Mirages are phased out..but some of the newer Jags have easily another 2 decades of service life in them..even the MiG-29s and the Mirages with their upgrades should be able to go on till 2025.
I couldn’t have said it better myself.:)
Mig-29s/M2Ks/Jags are likely to serve till 2025/30, while SU-30/MRCA/LCA would go till 2040 or so. So where do MCA/Pak-FA fit in this 3-tier system, unless of course IAF plans to introduce them around 2030/35 in order to replace some newer types…which i very much doubt???
vikasrehmanErm I really do not see any great leap the guys at HAL and DRDO will get from ANY tech transfer from the offered aircraft. It seems India can do nicel without them and is at most a few very short years behind. It is not a case of Mentality at HAL rather then lack of technological know how.
May be not.
But unless im mistaken, its India who wants this deal with ToT…and willing to pay for it. As for western companies, im sure they would be happy to simply build the machines and sell them to India quickly.
India doesnt need the tech transfer from F/a-18, F-16, Mig -29 EFA or Rafael.
But it still wants it?
Have u come across any reference which suggests that west is unwilling to sell these birds without India also paying for ToT.
You have to remember the west has been playing this game for a very long time and even with the amount of Technology transfer they can still garauntee to transfer only the mundain! you can trust your life on that.
May be that’s why the project is so late. India wants it all, and west does not want to kill the golden egg laying hen in one go.
vikasrehmanIn a single shift system a single assembly line can produse 24 fighter per year in ease. If not, then something is wrong with the workforce, suppliers and funding related to that.
HAL is also running another 101 projects.
Having said this, i dont think that the actual manufacturing is likely to be the rate limiting step here. Take a look at MKI for an example. Im positvely sure that had both India and Russia decided to do so, they could have pumped up its roduction rate right from the beggining and manufatured all 140 machines in probably half the time. But smooth integration takes time and resources. Woud IAF have been willing to get all these machines so quickly? How about the finances…since payments would be spread over years. By the time MMRCA is ready to be lince built, i can only assume that LCA would be coming in high numbers too, and it wont be easy for IAF to get all these machines integrated into its system so smoothly.
I still stay stick with the MKIS, reduce the requirement of the MMRCA to 60 use the left over money on R&D and build lots of UCAV’s for bombtruck missions that are able to be guided by the MKIS WSO’s India does not need to go through the full cycle and learn the hard way when it is proven that UAV’s and UCAVS can really do the job when your talking about bombing missions.
Problem with this number, i.e. 60 is that ToT is extremely unlikely to be fesible for such a small number. So unless IAF decides to buy them off shelf…which is unlikely anyway.
vikasrehmanWith regard to RD-93, while there was so much stuff appearing in newspapers, all we heard from PAF officials was that ‘engine is no problem…its between China and Russia’ and no other concrete evidence-based statements as we like to see. Well if i remember correctly PAF officials also stated quite a while ago that China would also buy as many FC-1 as PAF. JF-17’s numbers are very important when it comes to keeping the unit/maintenance prices low, and unless the two can come to an agreement about these in some other manner, i think PLAAF/PLAN would end up taking JF-17/FC-1.
vikasrehman2020 would be the year when last of the MRCA would be inducted into IAF not the first. After all even Su-30 MKI deal was signed in 1997 but will only completed by 2014/15 or 17.
Deal for MKI signed in 1997, was meant to be completed in 2018, dut due to later acceleration is now planned to be completed in 2014/15. OTOH, RFPs for MMRCA have just gone out and with all those preconditions that GOI has attached it would literally take years before it is negotiated and eventually signed. Then the actual manufacturing facilities have to be established and it would take a minimum of 2-3 years b4 first foreign built a/c arrive in IAF. HAL would start with a low rate of production and only gradually building it up just like MKI and Hawk in future. With all these factors as well as HAL being busy with so many other projects, Ur estimate of 2020 being the year when last MRCA joins is not even optimist rather an almost unachievable dream.
vikasrehmanIf the planes are not expected to join service before 2020-21, it would be much better for IAF to just scrap the whole MMRCA contract and focus on the 5th gen acquisition instead.
Precisely my thoughts too. Well if as many here say Indian aviation is already able to produce 4+ gen components, there should be no doubt that by 2015-2020, local industry should be able to put something in the same league as any of those fighters for which RFPs have been sent.
Which ever way i look at it, this tender makes no sense whatsoever. I think all would agree that signing of this contract would take quite a bit of time considering the tough conditions GOI has placed in it wrt ToT and offsets. I really fail to understand what sort of benefits (besides political…and even then a number of countries might be very unhappy…and diversification) GOI is planning to reap from this purchase that Indian aviation industry cannot get from other well placed projects:confused:
vikasrehman1. As i have laid out previously its useless to speculate how worst is MRCA for India rather should discuss how to fit MRCA among the others, because the former is redundant in any case.
Now that RFP have gone out, i assume IAF to say the least know how they are going to fit MRCA among other??? If MRCA doesn’t bring in anything (which India doesn’t already have or can get from other sources) then i suspect this brings into the question the validity of MRCA as a project???
1. The management team is not over ambitious, because it takes money to be overambitious without proper funds how can you be? Have you indulged into personal convo with any such management team? and how over ambitious are they? Infact many projects just didnt had any management teams in the user level and mod level to have a seamless communication between the service-developer. The management teams if are in some cases heavily influenced by bereaucracy and instead of appointing a manager they appoints a layman. It should be noted things here are again highly de-centralised phenomenon, like what holds true for Army does not for Navy.
If so, no wonder a lot of Indian projects are being delayed by years. I can only hope it improves.
2. I absolutely doubt such point, things dont just happens like that that the ‘foreign brain’ say rafale is selected working on its pre-production line would suddenly tell you how to produce single crystal blades. In Consultancy you always have to hire a company and pay him to do so. and more often we have seen things other way around i.e. LCA project aiding the MKI/Mig 27/Jag.
When i said brains, i mean individuals and not companies. There are many many Britons who are working in Saudia Arabia ‘for BAE’ on different projects simply because they get money and facilities. If India can attract such individual to work ‘for India’ i’d be surprised if they dont use their skills and expertise to work ‘for India’.
Dont ignore the political will (will of state), it alone can make difference just like it killed part of our industry after marut.
If so, then i guess mods should close this thread, and mayb re-open another one in 10 yrs time when we as individuals will have a better idea of where MRCA will fit into IAF.;)
vikasrehmanWe don’t live in an ideal world, where all the major powers are going to give up their missiles and WMD. Since many of these major power keep threatning the smaller ones (either to safeguard their own interest and/or aggressive actions of smaller nations), the latter would always keep trying to build their own missile/WMD.
Real problem is that everyside believes that their WMDs are part of the solution while others’ are part of the problem…and with such attitude, there is not much hope.
vikasrehmanSo what SHOULD they have done.
At least not what they are doing right now, i.e. aggression. But that would be a perfect wold, which does not exist on this planet.
That’d be a pretty dumb move on Syria’s part.
Israeli rules of game seem to be ‘everything is fair in war’. Oram i wrong?
vikasrehmanThere is no evidence of a gradual build up, in fact the Israeli prime minister offered the peace talks today. Seeing as both sides are refusing to say anything about this incident it seems absurd for you to making such ridiculous accusations about Israel trying to provoke some kind of large scale conflict.
Come on now. Where have you been for the past few months. Isarel was sending such signals (peace talks) for months, and then suddenly this attack. Why? Is it possible that Israel wants peace talks but wants to warn Syria in advance about ‘who the daddy is’? I am not accusing Israel/Syria of anything. I was simply laying down more possibilities alongside those that we have seen in newspapers. My point was that though these journalist probably don’t have a shred of evidence for any of those theories besides probably some ‘anonymous sources’ and ‘expert opinion’ they simply love speculating instead of asking the real hard questions.
Who said it all was fabricated lies? Iraq really did transfer wmd evidence to Syria, using the Russians as their mules over land. And then the evidence was carried by air out of Syria and into more competent hands. The Russians don’t want nuclear or chemical materials falling into terrorist hands any more than we do. Diplomacy can sometimes breed strange bed fellows, which is why some stories are intentionally muddled for the masses.
Ok.
So it was mixture of half truths and fabrications. Does this mean we should believe them now???
Now Janes has run this story which appeared in JP. Where is the evidence???
To be frank, in the light of what’s happening in Iraq now and what actually led to it, i find it so very difficult to believe what i read in newspapers coming from many western journalists vis-a-vis middle east…because neiter anyone responsible for the failures of Iraq war/failed intelligence has been brought to justice nor media have questioned their own role in that war.
vikasrehmanI wouldn’t undervalue the offsets and technology transfer. The MMRCA tender helps India develop its own military aerospace industry in size, skill and knowledge, which should provide a better base for future indigenous products. I would think of this tender as an opportunity to quickly catch up on 4th gen fighter design and production.
While this would have been the way to go for a country like India 20-30 yrs ago, i would question its logic in 21st century. While India would be busy trying to absorb that newly ‘bought/transferred’ technology (and it would literally take years to do so) its western counterparts would be busy working on their 5th gen fighters/components. By the time India is competent enough in designing its own 4+ gen system, its western partners would have fielded their 5th gen system leaving india dependent on them. One can argue that India would also possibly start working on a collaborative 5th gen design in near future…but if so then what’s the whole point of MMRCA…a totally new design?
With regard to skill and knoweldge, just like most third world countries i dont think its the talent that India lacks but an abundance of over ambitious incompetent management teams. Having said that skill/knoweldge are different that come with experience and Indian R&D is definitely not as advanced as many of its western counteroarts. After soviet collapse, a lot of its top designers ended up in different countries for a number of reasons. Today things are different, and with all this money reserved for MMRCA, India can ‘attract’ a lot of foreign brains which would simply help India to advance its skills/knweldge resuling in a more advanced aerospace industry.
vikasrehmanNo one is advocating a war here. This seems to have been a one of intelligence based operation.
Yeah…right.
First it was Israel carying out recon fights.
Then it was Israel trying to test Syrian defence system.
Then came the attack on the convoy en-route to Hizbullah.
The latest news links Syria/Iran/NK in some sort of close nuclear realtionship.
Yet there are definitely other possibilities. May be Israel was simply trying to provoke Syria for one reason or another, or may be Israel was trying to demonstrate to US forces that such an attack is also possible on Iranian facilities (with or without US help)???
As one can see, however, it has been a gradual build up from one thing to another, each more sinister in nature than its predecessor. That is how the build up to Iraq war happened throughout 2002/03…if u remember. Irrespective of numerous precious lives (from many nations) lost in Iraq saga, i dont see many journalists asking the right questions even now, but mere speculations…perhaps we all suffer from short term memory loss.
vikasrehmanThats not the clinching factor though- the real issue is, with 230 MKIs, and future upgrades already under discussion, does the IAF really need the EF?
As an outsider, i dont think they do…not only the EF but any newer addition (in fact the whole MMRCA project). To be frank, i personally think that best route for IAF is 230+ MKI, speed up LCA, upgrade older machines, and start work on a 5th gen machine in collaboration with Russia or another foreign partner/s. If they must buy then Mig-35 is perhaps their best option due to the existing commonality and its ease of integration into IAF…perhaps Mig-29 could be upgraded narrow the gap between the two. However, it seems that indian political leadership has many other thoughts and not just the best interests of IAF.
vikasrehmanThats nothing like what is happening here, in fact knowbody seems to be saying anything about this.
What bothers me is not the lies of leaders but the way media spreads them and public accepts it without the sort of criticism/scrutiny these matters ought to receive in the light of build up to Iraq and resulting saga. Since the on going war in Iraq has claimed so many Iraqi and foreign (troops and other) lives with political leaders pinning a lot of blame vis-a-vis WMD (main justification for the invasion) i would have thought that journalists, especially American, would heavily scruitinise such reports/reports. But alas, i dont really see that happening, and anything about countries like Syria, Iran, North Korea is taken at their face value. With the recent spike in rhetoric vis-a-vis Iran and Syria, i wouldn’t be surprised if we r on the verge of another war, albeit very different from the previous one against Iraq…and general public once again will become too patriotic (blind) to see through real policies.
vikasrehmanThis arms shipments is actually confused because they dont mention that the shipment could have been to Iran from North Korea, it could have been North Korean Nukes sent to Syria to hide while north korea gets sanctions lifted.. etc etc.
These same sources told us not too long ago that Iraq had stockpiles of WMD and later that saddam has hidden WMD in Syria. We all know now that it was fabricated lies…i simply dont believe in intelligence failure which is normally blamed. If so, how could we even contemplate to even pay such attention to those people who told us those lies in the first place.
Sign In
