Golden arrow

What is open to question is the level of enthusiasm and funds supply and hiccups, such as the engine. To build locally and induct 200 FC-1/JF-17s, Pakistan will need upwards of $5 Billion and an additional big chunk of amounts invested in infrastructure developments. Now, if Pakistan goes in for 26 odd F-16s now and follows up 3 years later will another 48 odd, it will cost up to 5 Billion dollars. AWACS will cost another couple of billion. Weapons for the JF-17 and F-16 will be needed as well, adding to the cost. US aid will be all but used up by the P-3C deal alone, so Pakistan will need to prioritize or hope for oil strikes.

If my calculations are right, then u r putting a unit price of $67.5 mil for a simple purchase of (most likely) block 52 F-16s. Now what was the price u put on F-18 (or latest block F-16s) if India purchases 125-with all ToT fee, infrastructure development etc.-just a few days back? Ur figures also show that each FC-1 would cost around $25 mil…how did u manage to calculate that? To be frank, im quite surprised that u put such a high price for FC-1 (even higher than highly advanced LCA) in light of ur own prvious remarks that FC-1 is no better than Bison. :confused:

Recently, I had an opportunity to be in a meeting with many people in the defense industry as well as one retired Pak General. The Gen told us that there is already pressure from pro-F-16 elements in the PAF to buy as many as possible today for the fear of uncertainty if they wait to order more after Bush leaves power. There is the issue of the F-16 production line being closed after the current orders are over. He added that some others want to buy minimum F-16s and invest immediately in buying Gripens or other European system because the money is available now and it would give PAF a system superior to any Indian plane.

Just like any other force in world, PAF also has individuals with their individual thinking. Take a look at IAF’s MRCA procurement plans. Im sure individuals and/or groups of individuals would have their own preferences.

As to the engine, I guess going between a turbofan and turbojet may necessitate an intake change, no? Two turbofans of the same approx specs may not need intake change. We’ll know sooner or later about the intake design change reasons and the engine status.

That is one of many possibilities, no? As someone pointed out earlier…to a mind blinded by biasedness, indian decision to procure 400 T-90 would mean only one thing, i.e. Arjun’s failure, while reality is far far away.

Sameer

I know thats the info I found here but the thing that confuses me is that the FC-1 nose is probably not that much smaller than the J-10 nose, hence why use a scaled down version? Cost? It makes more sense to shove the best possible radar available for the future backbone of the PAF especially considering the MKI radar and eventual 126 ac superbuy. Regardless, noone denies the fact that the PAF will be more capable a foe soon compared to now.
But the Pakistani defence budget stands at around 4B US, no way they can maintain so many FC-1s and around 40 F-16s, avionics, radar, BVR training, these costs will shoot up. Either there is a future plan to have one of the biggest increases in Pak history or someone will have to suffer cuts.

Do u have the precise information about J-10 and FC-1 radomes, i.e. diameters? China’s offer of a smaller version of J-10’s radar indicates that either China is not willing to release KLJ-10 technology at this moment and/or its too expensive or it does not fit into FC-1’s nose. Richard Fisher in his report on Ideas 2004 quotes a PAF official saying that PAF did not reduce its requirement.
As for maintenance costs etc., the point to note is that PAF’s future planning centralises around F-16, FC-1 and possibly another fighter type. Right now PAF operates different types of mirages, F-7Ps (2 different types of engines), F-7PG, A-5s etc. Whereas the induction of new types would cost them more in certain aspects, PAF would save money in other fields, and overall costs are unlikely to be as astronomical as u think. OTOH, PAF budget would undoubtedly go up with time just like any other force, and its Pakistan’s economic growth which would determine the real size of budget.

Intake change = Sign of engine change?

A somewhat simpler explanation is to increase the rate of air flow??? 🙂

Taking into consideration licence fee, setting up of production line, cheap local labour as well as costs of training, weapons etc., its extremely difficult to put a price on a fighter. However, i assume that production of locally produced fighter under ToT is only worth if the package works out to be cheaper than imported one…unless of course a country is willing to pay high price simply to gain technology.

GA

It’s $75 mil a piece at most. Your numbers are incorrect.

Would such a price tag fit indian plans for a multirole aircraft that is supposed to fit between LCA and MKI (correct me if im wrong on this).

Golden Arrow

U may have made a prediction regarding F-16s coming to Pakistan in Jan, but others were making such predictions even before you. One example is Richard Fisher who wrote in his article after ideas 2004 (i think) that PAF’s LoR for F-16’s somewhat indicates Pakistan’s confidence in gaining US approval for this fighter. Other sources such as Flight international have also been publishing related news for sometime, the latest of which (if i remember correctly) was that ACM decided not to establish a local production line for K-8 in favour of local work for F-16 MLU. Although, many of us were rather hesitant to believe but individuals on pakdef forums have been also been making predictions about US for even longer.

Anyway, you are perfectly fine to be skeptical about what I said, but what you cannot be skeptical about is that the US doesn’t reverse a 15 year old policy and offer major rewards for nothing.

U are absolutely right. There are no permanent alliances but only permanent interests. However, you do not have any evidence as yet to make out such a link between F-16 sale and Pak’s stance on Iran. What u have is normally referred to as circumstantial evidence. One can offer counter arguments to ur own line of argument, e.g. She (Condoleeza Rice) said she was struck by the September 11 commission’s recommendation to “invest in the relationship with Pakistan, because if you don’t, you’re going to create the same situation we created in the ’90s,” when Pakistan forged ties with the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan and so on, but it may be better for us to sit tight and let the events reveal themselves. 🙂

Engine trouble could mean a lot of things, such as supply issues, which have been reported in many places.

I personally have not seen anything, and so have to take your word for this. However, 2 the best of my knowledge, pakistani official line still is that JF-17 will be powered by RD-93. Although, i have come across couple of statements by Ivanov about re-export of RD-93, i have mentioned elsewhere that his own dept also issued a statement just prior to his visit to India. According to this statement, Russian defence ministry linked safeguarding of indian interests with safeguarding of russian interests. Now i have a few points regarding this whole issue.

1. Over recent years, china has replaced india as number one customer of russian arms, and as a result enjoys considerable clout. It will not be easy for Russia to ignore chinese wishes as easily as in past. OTOH, european arms embargo will be lifted sooner or later-despite all american opposition-and russian defence industry does recognise that it may face quite considerable opposition, something that may add to China’s favour.

2. Go through the archives of indian newspapers. Just a few months back, almost everyone was of the opinion that India will buy M2K-5. IAF officials seemed very happy with such a purchase. Then it all changed suddenly, and Mig-29M2 (one real contender) jumped into the race with F-16 and Gripen (more unlikely contenders). In response to one of my questions in IAF thread, one person noted that IAF would not go for a mix but only one type.
My own prediction is that China would end up going for a considerable number of FC-1, and that simply means a few hundred million dollars for Russian defence industry. If so, the way i see it, unless India is willing to look after Russian interests vis-a-vis MMRCA contract and/or ATBM systems, then Russia may also decide to take another look at its own policy vis-a-vis pakistan especially when taking into consideration chinese influence in Russia. However, if India instead decides to look after russian interests, then its western companies would lose out, who in their own turn would b a lot more willing to do business with Pakistani miltary especially in the light of American F-16 approval for Pakistan. With this F-16 sale and/or India going for Russian fighters, i can’t imagine US and Indian being able to tell western countries/companies not to do business with Pakistan. Hence, these in turn would definitely be more interested in looking after their own interests. No doubt such a drastic move (i have ignored any possiblity of chinese engine here to prevent further complications in discussions) would considerably delay JF-17 project, but coming of more F-16 into Pakistan along MLU would keep their air defence at the same level. Finally, if India does eventually decide to go for Russian Migs, what happens to current Indian diversification policy???

PS. I do recognise that we r talking merely on theoretical level, so i hope we’d recognise our own assumptions.