I was just wondering about all the fuss which kicked up after 9/11 about a conflict with North Korea and was just wondering is the North REALLY a threat. At the risk of answering my own question the North has:
Army: large in no. but mainly comprising old MBT’s, AFV’s and artillery of fifties and sixties vintage of which about only 30% are estimated to be fully operational.
Navy: Again mainly fifties and sixties designs with no real threat to madern warships and again very few are considered operational.
Air Force: Slightly more modern but basic designs with primitive avionics and weapons (no LGB for example). Also very few pilot hours and few airworthy aircraft. Obsolete doctrine.
Air Defence: SA-2’s and SA-3’s.
Are we to believe that this museum is going to pose a threat to South Korea?
The one and only threat is the Norths IRBM’s of which the hasty development seems to be an admittance by Pyongyang that the North has no credible conventional force.
Am I missing something here???
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th December 2003 at 07:56
“Pakistan-a known supporter of terrorism and therefore IS a threat to the Western world.”
But that doesn’t matter because they are being helpful in Afghanistan… or paying lip service to being helpful anyway.
“Saudi Arabia-hell, even some of the royal family gives money to terrorists, and therefore IS a threat to the Western world.”
They have too much oil to be bad.
“Iran-since when have they stopped calling us Great Satan and decided they want better relations? As it stands, they also support terrorism and are therefore a threat to the Western world.”
Unless you are Israeli or live in Israel then you are pretty much safe from “their” terrorists.
“The jury’s currently out on Libya, but I am impressed with the progress they are making towards getting back into the international community.”
And what difference does being a member of the international community make? Saudi Arabia has good standing… didn’t make the actions of 15 or so Saudi Citizens in US airspace on 11/9 any less damaging.
“As for North Korea…they have no problem exporting missile technology all over the world…”
So what? One or two missiles will make very little difference anyway. I thought that was the point of NMD? The threats to the western world is an airliner full of fuel at a soccer game or Football game, or anthrax, or a small nuclear device. Why go to the huge expense and simultanously broadcast who the purpetrator is for an attack that could more easily use a light cessna or boeing, or a suitcase, or even a large ship?
By: SOC - 16th December 2003 at 05:04
Originally posted by user
Pakistan:Another Close ally of the united states and not a threat to the western world.
Saudi: Another close ally with the united states and is not a threat to the western world.
Iran: Wants better relations with the USA, but as it stands is a small threat to the western world, Iran and Libya are both working with North korea and these nations need to be liberated, and thier missile programmes destroyed.North korea is the big player in the axis of evil.
Pakistan-a known supporter of terrorism and therefore IS a threat to the Western world.
Saudi Arabia-hell, even some of the royal family gives money to terrorists, and therefore IS a threat to the Western world.
Iran-since when have they stopped calling us Great Satan and decided they want better relations? As it stands, they also support terrorism and are therefore a threat to the Western world.
The jury’s currently out on Libya, but I am impressed with the progress they are making towards getting back into the international community.
As for North Korea…they have no problem exporting missile technology all over the world…
By: ELP - 16th December 2003 at 04:54
Best HUMINT I have seen on this topic.
By: F-18 Hamburger - 16th December 2003 at 02:25
I’ve been to North Korea once, looking to see if its a good business opportunity.. unfortunately they confiscated my buns and tried to reach for my sausages.
but I’ll tell you this, there’s no fat chicks there 😮
By: plawolf - 15th December 2003 at 19:32
user:
so, let me get this right, ur saying that NK is a ‘threat to the western world’ because the US president says it is so? surely no-one can be that ‘trusting’? :rolleyes:
By: user - 15th December 2003 at 11:00
Israel: A close ally of the United states not a threat to the western world.
South Africa: Has given up its nuclear programme under compulsion.
Pakistan:Another Close ally of the united states and not a threat to the western world.
India: Has a Hindu fundamentalist BJP governement which took part in the state sponsored murder of 5000 gujarati muslims, one of their most influential politicians is wanted by the Pakistani goverment for an attempted assisnation on Pakistani leaders.
Saudi: Another close ally with the united states and is not a threat to the western world.
Iran: Wants better relations with the USA, but as it stands is a small threat to the western world, Iran and Libya are both working with North korea and these nations need to be liberated, and thier missile programmes destroyed.
North korea is the big player in the axis of evil.
By: alex - 15th December 2003 at 10:47
User, explain what u mean. How are they a threat and to whom???
If ur saying that they are a threat ‘cos they have long range missiles, well that includes countless other nations such as Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, India, Saudi, Iran, Libya etc.etc. etc. so how are these nations any different???
By: user - 15th December 2003 at 10:34
North korea is a threat that has be dealt with.
By: plawolf - 17th November 2003 at 18:27
GarryB:
“”NK should be ok as long as they dont find any oil there.”
DON’T SAY THAT!!!! (it might come true… and then their might be enough balance to the point where the US might see NK and SK as equals…)”
😮 , sorry, my bad. 😉 😀
By: Arthur - 17th November 2003 at 10:34
Hey, of course Kim Jong Il looks silly. But he always looked silly, even back in the days when he was married to Priscilla, lived in Graceland, Memphis, Tennesse, and especially when he wore jumpsuits to please the crowds in Vegas. When he himself sobered up, so did his outfit.
I have to say he did a great job though. Creating a personal cultus around both your personalities/incarnations must be a first in recorded history 😀
By: Arabella-Cox - 17th November 2003 at 09:57
oops sorry Vort… that reply should have included some smiley faces too. 🙂
By: Arabella-Cox - 17th November 2003 at 09:43
“New Zealand centric aren’t we? There’s plentiful islands in the SOUTH PACIFIC…i see that you’re the neighborhood bad mama and don’t like Americans going down there to mess with your mojos… “
Grab a map… there aren’t that many islands in the South Pacific…
BTW
“we’ll turn Kiwiland into some kind of gigantic Disney world, the tourists will live in the northern island and the amusement area will be the southern”
Those islands that are in the South Pacific and are referred to as Kiwiland consist of the north and south Islands of New Zealand and Stewart Island and (usually) the Chatham Islands.
“thats way u dont see the SKs pushing for a military resolution do u?”
That is not going to mean much if the US does something stupid like a preemptive strike on nuclear facilities that the NKs might consider an act of war or a reason to restart open hostilities.
I don’t fear the SK doing something to reignite the war… bush jnr however is nice and warm and safe and regime change is a fun game that looks good politically.
“NK should be ok as long as they dont find any oil there.”
DON’T SAY THAT!!!! 😮 (it might come true… and then their might be enough balance to the point where the US might see NK and SK as equals…)
By: plawolf - 16th November 2003 at 11:50
GarryB:
im afraid ur just not getting the jist of it.
“It is very unlikely that North Korean artillery will be tasked with flattening cities. Support for North Korean units… in attack or defence would fit their doctrine much better.”
very possible. but as u urself already pointed out, NK has no chance in a converntional war aginst even SK alone, this means that in a bid to try to aviod a war they cant win, NK will threaten to turn all their missiles and artilary on SK cities should they be attacked. NK may not do this in reality, but SK cant take that chance.
“If it fires it will appear on radar… tracking the source of incoming artillery rounds means that only light portable mobile systems will have much of a chance. (A good example would be the Russian and Czech version of the Grad artillery rocket launcher… supposed experts in the west claim the Czech system is best because it mounts a full reload of rocket that can be reloaded in approximately 3-4 minutes. Of course such a reload time is too long and if it remained where it fired from and reloaded and fired again it would already be dead. The Russian system, while much slower to load would be gone to its next preregistered launch site and in 15 minutes when it reloaded it would be firing again, while the Czech system will be burning. Attacking the target area with cluster munitions and self forging fragment rounds would be standard… it is for the Russians.”
ur just not getting the point! most of NK’s big guns (with supporting munistions stores and troop barics) will be dug into the mountains themselves – fully inclosed in metres ( tens of meteres in some places) of solid rock and concrete all around, except for the whole they need to fire out of. cluster munitions would be useless against them as they wont even shake the tea cups of the NK soilders inside. the same can be said for atrilary. shells will only be moveing dirt, and will only have an effect if one flies right throw the NK gunhole or several rounds hit the area right next to the gunholes and one manages to blast threw, or if u throw so many rounds that u manged to ware away the meteres of rock and reinforced concrete. at 20-40 km ranges, i dont think the chances of the first two happening that often will be too great.
“The most effective attacks were massed bomber raids that caused firestorms. Needless to say many firepositions would be known to the SKs and the Rest would become visible when they started firing. The NKs would be a formidible enemy but they are heavily outnumbered… an artillery piece cannot fight a tank or a plane… and when all the supply trucks are gone and the ammo bunkers hit they aren’t even much good for ramming.”
massed air bombings might be the best way to servive such attack urself, but when it comes to pure distructive power, a shell is little different from a bomb.
although artilary cant fight planes, they can engages tanks, and tanks will need to be within 2 km to be able to engage. even if the NK soldereds dont fight Sk tanks would be hard pressesd to cover 20~40 km of rough terrain in an hour. and i already pointed out the SK simply dont have enough a/c capable of delivering bunkerbusters to be able to silence the Nk guns very quickly.
“No, 100 Americans or British dead means a great deal… put it in perspective… thousands of Somalis were killed but the movie was about 19 dead americans. The withdrawl was about 19 dead Americans. Vietnam isn’t a country… it was a war.
(I hate it as much as you would… but while statistics for American and British and Italian and UN dead in Iraq appear on TV every night how many iraqis are dying? …does it matter? Bush only went in to save them afterall.) Look at what such international games have done to Afghanistan. ;-(“
agreed. but the lives of 100 SK citizens will mean more to SK then any other nation; and thats the same for almost every nation. thats way u dont see the SKs pushing for a military resolution do u?
“And lets face it it will be Koreans who die, not us, so I am sure many Americans and those of other nationalities will pop up and say lets bomb NK… and when it is done and 30,000 Koreans are dead (Optimistically low) they will say what a small price to pay for freedom… and how ungrateful the Iraqis are.”
thats why SK is working intensely with china, japan and russia to make sure the americans dont get to last say in this. but fortunately, not even the americans seem too interested in fighting NK at the moment. too many projected US deaths; not much of a threat from NK to justify those deaths; and no oil to pump back home after the war.
NK should be ok as long as they dont find any oil there. 😎
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th November 2003 at 10:17
no no…you’ve misunderstood…so New Zealand centric aren’t we? There’s plentiful islands in the SOUTH PACIFIC…i see that you’re the neighborhood bad mama and don’t like Americans going down there to mess with your mojos… 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 just for that we won’t nuke you…we’ll liberate you 😀
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th November 2003 at 09:42
“maybe next time we’ll try the South Pacifics they seems pretty weak too….”
Doubt it… too far. Besides there is no oil down here.
“..we’ll turn Kiwiland into some kind of gigantic Disney world,”
You don’t need to come down here to do that… it is already happening. After spending most of my life being told not to accept lollies (US = candy) from strangers we have a huge push for kids to go door to door asking for lollies from total strangers on a night when ghosts and goblins are supposed to come out. Throw cold water on the first few and they seem to get the message though. 🙂
If it continues the way it seems to be going can I request you use the big nukes next 4th of July and don’t just free us South Islanders from Americana.
BTW “area will be the southern…we’ll feature live minature nuke shows every 4th of July on those plentyful of useless islands….awesome”
Yes, it is hell down here… the South Island of New Zealand was the only place they could film for Mordor… (Also I think plentiful useless islands is a stretch… the South Island and Stewart Island hardly qualify as plentiful Islands) 🙂 🙂
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th November 2003 at 08:41
Originally posted by GarryB
The Americans on the other hand seem to interfere just because it seems to be fun.
yea, we always get bored…our neighbors aren’t very interesting not to mention weak too…maybe next time we’ll try the South Pacifics they seems pretty weak too….we’ll turn Kiwiland into some kind of gigantic Disney world, the tourists will live in the northern island and the amusement area will be the southern…we’ll feature live minature nuke shows every 4th of July on those plentyful of useless islands….awesome 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
By: Arabella-Cox - 16th November 2003 at 07:59
“Good point though. Japan, China and especially Russia would never involve themselves in the affairs of others.”
Of course they interfere in the affairs of other, but they are hardly likely to do it for the benefit of anyone but themselves. The Americans on the other hand seem to interfere just because it seems to be fun.
“and there are plenty of large cities and concerntrate population areas right across the 38th for NK artiliary to aim at.”
It is very unlikely that North Korean artillery will be tasked with flattening cities. Support for North Korean units… in attack or defence would fit their doctrine much better.
“but what u have failed to factor in is that fact that korea, and especially the area around the 38th, are prodominately mountouse regions. and given the time NK had, almost all of its long range artiliry will be very well dug in to very strong semi-natural bombshelters. “
If it fires it will appear on radar… tracking the source of incoming artillery rounds means that only light portable mobile systems will have much of a chance. (A good example would be the Russian and Czech version of the Grad artillery rocket launcher… supposed experts in the west claim the Czech system is best because it mounts a full reload of rocket that can be reloaded in approximately 3-4 minutes. Of course such a reload time is too long and if it remained where it fired from and reloaded and fired again it would already be dead. The Russian system, while much slower to load would be gone to its next preregistered launch site and in 15 minutes when it reloaded it would be firing again, while the Czech system will be burning. Attacking the target area with cluster munitions and self forging fragment rounds would be standard… it is for the Russians.
“but even at the height of WWII, tens, if not hundreds of thousands of civilans were killed in each attack. “
The most effective attacks were massed bomber raids that caused firestorms. Needless to say many firepositions would be known to the SKs and the Rest would become visible when they started firing. The NKs would be a formidible enemy but they are heavily outnumbered… an artillery piece cannot fight a tank or a plane… and when all the supply trucks are gone and the ammo bunkers hit they aren’t even much good for ramming.
“but thats not the point, today, a hundred dead means a great deal.”
No, 100 Americans or British dead means a great deal… put it in perspective… thousands of Somalis were killed but the movie was about 19 dead americans. The withdrawl was about 19 dead Americans. Vietnam isn’t a country… it was a war.
(I hate it as much as you would… but while statistics for American and British and Italian and UN dead in Iraq appear on TV every night how many iraqis are dying? …does it matter? Bush only went in to save them afterall.) Look at what such international games have done to Afghanistan. ;-(
“how many is unltimately killed matters little. even if by some mirical, only a thousand were killed, the damages would have already been done.”
And lets face it it will be Koreans who die, not us, so I am sure many Americans and those of other nationalities will pop up and say lets bomb NK… and when it is done and 30,000 Koreans are dead (Optimistically low) they will say what a small price to pay for freedom… and how ungrateful the Iraqis are.
By: plawolf - 15th November 2003 at 20:35
hamburger:
“haha oh yes, the fact that there are many tax evaders in China, yet they arrest him At the same time he becomes governor of Sinuiju
especially since he’s a Dutch national”
thats part of the problem, because there are so many corrup businessmen and government officals, many will never be caught simply because tehre are too many. but i would think that getting such a high profile job would have brought the man to the attention of the authourities. guess thats a downside to breaking the laws. 😉
nationalanity has little to do with things. in fact, china has a tendency to be more careful with foreign nationals then ordinary chinese nationals.
“a quote from that times article “Beijing is not happy with North Korea for not fully consulting them on the new economic zone.”
yes and by my logic it works”
:rolleyes: it was china that persuaded NK to set up the SEZ in the first place.:rolleyes:
china might not have been happy with the way the NKs were running things, but china would not deliberately scuttled an important NK economic project just because china did want the ‘competition’.
a) NK current pose no threat to china economically, and by the ways things are going, wont be one for a very long time.
b) china has far more to gain for a richer NK the keeping them poor. do u have any idea how much trouble NK cos on china’s boarders? armed robbery, petty crime, illegal imagration, u name it, and all because NK is too poor to feed itself.
c) unlike what some beleive, chinese are no inhernetly ‘evil’ and have no desire to see misfourtune come to all none chinese.
——————————————————————————–
GarryB:
“The area this massed artillery will be spread is very limited. Max range of tube artillery is approximately 40km and unless an invasion force is used then there will be a small gap where front line units will be placed (from either side) with artillery units behind them. This suggests at least some of the artillery will be used to attack the SK forward units and the rest will be available to attack the city. “
good point there, havent thought abt that too much. but in a way, it makes little difference as a shell falling in seul will be the same as one landing in any SK city in all intents and perposes, and there are plenty of large cities and concerntrate population areas right across the 38th for NK artiliary to aim at.
“Equally the SK will have counterbattery artillery units as well, most likely pinpointing enemy positions using radar artillery spotters and MLRS firing cluster munitions to fairly rapidly silence any positions that do open up. Other aircraft could be used, including F-15Ks to fly cluster bomb missions over likely Artillery sites.”
but what u have failed to factor in is that fact that korea, and especially the area around the 38th, are prodominately mountouse regions. and given the time NK had, almost all of its long range artiliry will be very well dug in to very strong semi-natural bombshelters.
dispite the accuracy and destructive power of modern day artilitary, shelling at these ‘shelters’ will be all but useless unless u can scourse several direct hits at the very front of the shelter. at 20~40 km ranges, i dont hold much hope of SK artilitary being able to score several direct hits on tank-sized targets in a short time period, and even less hope of them being able to repeat the process a few thousand times within an hour.
the only truely effective way to deal with these targets would be ‘bunkerbuster’ PGMs, and i dont think SK have the ability to deliver thousands of them in an hour.
“Sounds like a lot, and if distributed properly they could wipe out half the population of asia (ie quarter of a million shells at approximately 40Kgs each… a few 100 grams will kill…. but reality is that rounds will not be that accurate nor that accurately targetted. Shells will hit in the open and hurt no one, other shells will merely spread the damage of other shells that have already killed everyone in that building etc etc”
true, all of the situations u have meantioned and more applied every time the allies bombed a german city in WWII, and back then ppl were well rehersed in seekinging shelter, unlike the modern average person on the streets. but even at the height of WWII, tens, if not hundreds of thousands of civilans were killed in each attack.
but thats not the point, today, a hundred dead means a great deal. and so the very prospect of hundreds of thousands of shells falling on cities is too high a price to pay, how many is unltimately killed matters little. even if by some mirical, only a thousand were killed, the damages would have already been done.
By: Sauron - 15th November 2003 at 18:24
Garry
Now you be carefull. Arthur is mad at me for calling people silly names and here you go calling folks stupid and getting him riled up at you.
Good point though. Japan, China and especially Russia would never involve themselves in the affairs of others.:D 😉
Sauron
By: Sauron - 15th November 2003 at 17:50
Arthur
Gee, I thought “ding-dong” was as good as any. You have to admit that the guy usually looks like a loud bell just went off inside his head.
Regards
Sauron
Sign In
November 10, 2003 at 2:54 pm