Crazymainer

going off topic completely is annoying, it is even more so if the person doing it has no idea what he is ranting on about and is obviously laking some serious basic knowledge. i advise u to read up on ur history the next time u decide to make a ‘statement’. proof reading before posting would also be a welcome inprovement.

back on topic.

well i seriously doubt the US would launch an attack against Iran any time soon. there was a possibility before iraq, but now that there are hundred of thousands of US troops on the ground a stone’s throw away from Iran, the option of striking without retaliation is gone.

the US has got too much to loose and too little to gain from craping on iran atm. they got a pretty good deal as it is, with all the US threats and tough talk, the iranians are actually trying to keep all their nationalists in check (well at the very least they are not encouraging them) in fear of provoking the US.

it is all too easy for Iran to seriously hurt the US military in response to such an attack. there is no need for the Iranian military or goverment to be directly invovled in any way. after an US/Israeli attack on iran, there will be a flood of nationalistic Iranians going across the board of their own accord. all the Iranian government has to do is just leaving manpads and anti-tank missiles etc on the Iran-Iraq boarder and Iraq will blow up in america’s face.

without a direct link, it will be hard for GWB to get the american congress or public to agree to invade iran as well. even if GWB somehow managed to make that happen, america just dont have the men power needed to defeat iran and occupy it along with iraq and afganistan (well not without bring back the draft, which isnt going to happen).

then there’s also all the economical implications (but i doubt crude will go up to 150 tho 😮 )

if the US is not willing, then Israel will not go it alone. it can try, but no way can they keep such a big op a secret from the US, once the US finds out, it’ll put pressure on Israel and the game is over.

the J10 CG pics while we are on the subject. 🙂

well china already have the sunburn (sov) and the club (kilo), so is there a need for them to come up with a domestic alternative? probably, but i doubt that it will have the highest priority. perhaps that is why the C80X missiles are still the mainstay of the PLAN surface fleet.

but there is a new gen stealthy AShM/LACM displayed on a JH7A model a while back, not to forget the rather large and unusual AShM launchers fitted to the 052Cs, which also suggests a new heavier missile. considering that the C803 is already pretty long legged but is much much smaller, logic would indicate that the new missiles are supersonic.

in all likelihood, any new chinese supersonic AShMs will mainly be used by the PLAAF or PLANAF and by the PLAN’s subs instead of the surface fleet for a number of reasons.

1) fighters and subs have a better chance of being able to get close enough to use the new ‘Aegis-killers/carrier-killers’ in a real fight as opposed to surface ships.

2) as the scandle with the 052Cs’ VLS have shown, u just cant keep new kit a secret if you decide to mount them on the new surface ships. (thats probably the new missile launchers were quickly removed and we are now left with only the empty racks).

Hahahahaha now that’s a rather interesting thought mate! Personally I feel that Taiwan has been it’s own place since before I was born so there for it is it’s own country now despite what the mainland think or feel.

I also feel that Billy boy should do another term in office, what he did for the world during his time in office really did make a difference in the world, the ME was actually talking at the table, China was a great friend to the US and Russia was openly trading with them, what better way could there have been?

lets stear clear of polictics here guys, there’s never a good end to that road.

?

you must admit that this is one slick PS job, could have fooled me if i havent seen the genuine pics beforehand.

guess we should all be a little bit more careful in the future.

Hui Tong is saying that the first flight of a new J-11 model is confirmed by the Chinese Aerospace Newspaper.

Don’t know about the others, but I think China is not buying the entire 200. As early as 2000 it was planning to buy only as much as 80 kits, prompting Jane’s to erroneously conclude that China will be making Su-30MKKs after the 80th aircraft.

Pibu has noted in this forum he thinks about 104 kits were delivered.

The last Jane’s article put the numbers of kits around 95 delivered.

Based on the orbats of PLAAF formations early this year, we can account for at least 90. We have three regs with at least 26 aircraft each. Another reg has like five J-11s in it, and fifth has at least 4 J-11s. This does not count J-11 substitutions on other regs for attrition, or experimental versions. The J-11 regs has at least three to four UBKs,but the UBKs appeared pulled out of the 33rd and J-11s were used to fill those holes in the 33rd div in exchange, so the numbers even out.

So it’s possible that China may not need to buy more kits in the future, and they could acquire the Russian engines in a separate contract. They can construct the plane entirely from local materials and use the Russian engine until WS-10A engine is ready. So yeah, the 200 kits is not fixed. We’ll see, and I have a feeling it has already started to happen this year.

interesting points. it could be that SAC simply got the upgrade ready sooner then previously planned (cant be that suprising considering the iffy start it got off to with the J11). or the 200 could have just been a ‘guessetimate’ made my janes or someone else that just got spread around and took on a life of its own.