plawolfin regard to the 200 number. well if the whole previous set of ‘rules’ regarding the J11 is now proven invalid, then it could be that the 200 be a minimum number of kits the PLA must buy from russia so that the russians get a good enough return on their design. after that, it could be that the chinese could do what they like.
but still, i think we should not just too quick to new conclusions and wait until we get some more information to back up or overrule what we have thus far.
plawolfoh, your name as “aggressive member” is really right then…
Political flag waving? It is a fact that your country does have 1.2 billion people (of which too many male ones, but that aside), and too few land to maintain this.
the figure is actually closer to 1.3bn, thats a fact, but what isnt is your CLAIM that there isnt enough land to maintain everyone. if you take you head out of a Tom Clancy ‘novel’ once in a while, you might find that farmers in china are not that keen on growing food crops like weat and rice and instead are moving into fruit and flowers, because the prices are too low. and the reason that prices are too low is because, guess what, there is an oversupply of food in china. :rolleyes:
Brand everyone? WHat do you mean? THe British, are Jonesy, which is according to you guys a buddy of mine in this discussion.
So, now I have to stick to the topic right? Haha, this entire topic isn’t “sticked” to the topic or topic title… Only if you really read it well, and I’m sure some people didn’t read it well enough to understand that, otherwise you would have gotten the point of Jonesy…
go back and read what i wrote before you imbaress yourself futher by suggesting that others cant read properly. 😎
plawolfanother shot of the 730 in action.
plawolfdidnt even think the perpose of the foredeck MLRS was ever in doubt. :confused:
i remeber reading off mainland chinese pubilications nearly hakf a decade ago that they were for ASW rockets. we (well i at least) have seen plenty of CCTV pictures of these things being let off in vollies which left no doubt about what they were for. (well not unless the decoys the chinese use have effective ranges in the kilometres 😉 ).
the picture i am about to post should clear away any remaining doubt about what they are for.
the two circular launchers on the foredeck are for ASW rockets, while the four square shaped launchers just in front of the bridge are for decoys.
plawolfI agree with GDL Jonesy, I admire your courage to keep going on your point. I suppose they’ll see the power of the SSNs when they come to the West in their imperial search for space.
Obviously they can’t imagine too much, like for example that they don’t know your “zones” nor how many SSNs are out there… Well you made your point to me and to GDL, so you should consider it as a succes. (I were a defender of the Chinese matter at first as you can see in my first posts, but you convinced me indeed!!!!) ALthough the British still stay a bunch of US buttkissers and deserve to be kicked out of EU. 😡
ah, cant really think of a way to try and argue your case convincingly, so you decide to ‘brand’ anyone and everyone who doesnt agree with you as mentally challenged. now why didnt i think of that?:rolleyes:
also, cut the political flag waving as its really getting a little old and boring now. “evil red commies set to try and conqure the world! momy help!…” 😎
want to dicuss it, go start a thread in general discussion, otherwise stick to the topic.
plawolfas for the IRAAM on the wingtip, well it looks awefully like an russian R serise missile (damn! cant rember the number), and i have one alot like it hanging on a 1/72 of an russian Su27 i bought a couple years ago. :confused:
plawolfYou should read the article. I need your opinion as the content is quite radical. Radical as in saying “On December 6, 2003, the new J-11 model type made its first flight, featuring new technical material (composite?), a new radar and fire control system, which can use domestic product.” The text goes on to the reasons why China may have rejected the Russian proposed Su-27SM upgrade plan.
well that is a VERY interesting article, and there is little doubt about its content. the only questions remaining are about its reliability.
they said that: “the new (J)11 uterlised large quantities of new techniques and materials, the avionics systems were much improved over the original Su27s. the radar and fire control systems were all replaced by superior domestic produces…the only thing not yet indiginous on the J11s are their engines.”
before that para, there is also another area of interest, where it stated that in april 04, the PLA was able to perform a major overhaul on an imported Su27 by itself.
plawolfFor crying out loud, I am speculationg on a picture! Besides, how the do you know for sure? They might be practising a manual interception with pure line-of-sight guidance (is that a capability on the PLAN Jiangwei-class frigates? If not, I am wrong).
point taken on the only speculating bit, but i was just pointing out what was a more likely explanation.
But there is nothing wrong with honing skills is there. Take the RAAF for example. They train with allies in Exercise Pitch Black for an aerial assualt on Northern Australia. Indeed an unlikely real life scenario. But they still do it, every two years. Just because a scenario would seem to be unrealistic, doesn’t mean the skills attributed with dealing with it are redundant. And as for that real life situation? I think a missile getting that close to a ship in wartime is a VERY realistic situation especially for the less capable PLAN vessels.
well, the point is you dont hone any sort of useful skill like that. the scenario in pitch black might be unrealistic, but the skills practiced and the tactics tried are. thats the point of exerises. but can you think of any meaningful skills one can gain from manually guiding a missile to such a target?
manual targeting for missiles is just basicly an excerise in keeping the target in the crosshairs long enough for your missile to hit or get into its seeker range. not very difficilt with a great big huge smoketrail like that and with the target flying in pretty much a straight line. hardly justifies the cost involved. (remeber we are talking about a navy that straps AK47s onto AAA guns for basic gunery practice)
if they were training for manual targeting, then there is no need for a smoke generator as no real missile from any remotely modern navy would have a tail anything like that big. the skills they should be practicing is visually locating and tracking an incoming missile without a smoketrail at all. again, not that difficult for trained naval personnel if you know where and when its coming.
both are possible, just one is more likely then the other. 😉
plawolfdoesnt really hold water or make sence.
there might be smoke generators, but if that is the case. then its most likely for the benefit of any high ranking military and/or political figures present to inspect the test fires, and not for the crew to aim at.
with modern radar and computers, the ship can plot an intercept path and give mid-course guidence to the missile much more accurately and faster then mere mortals like us.
it also dont make sence for the crew to train for situations that will never happen in real life.
plawolfi was right, there is a whole serise of pics, and it looks like the PLAN are propared to share at least another with us.
this serise is turning out to be even more impressive then i first thought. 😀
also attached are PLAAF or PLANAF Su30s firing live ASMs. looks like the cencore people are really letting themselves go nowadays. 😉
plawolfMaybe British and Chinese??
3 ports… I did say it was only as a matter of speaking, China does not have 1,000 tankers either. It’s just a numerical example, like this entire “exercise”.
However some people feel quite injured here and want to shift the debate on India 😀
It is a bad thing to think India is a midget, since it’s growing a LOT lately. Also 60% of NASA engineers are Indians, they are excellent in Electronics, also their shipbuilding market is growing a lot too. Probably overtaking China’s in several years.
India would in fact be a harder target. It has much more space to defend, but also much more space to use. With 5 SSNs, it would be impossible to cover the West, South and East of India. This is harder than the Chinese example because the SSNs can’t go straight to a new zone… There are much less chokepoints and merchants going to India have a lot more space to choose a track to get to their port. Their ASW is better than the Chinese one. They do have the IL-38 May ASW aircraft, several more Helix helicopters together with 10 Kilo class SSKs and a large number of German built Type 209 class SSKs, in total that makes about 18 or 20 submarines, lot less than China, but all of them are relatively new. Also they are ordering more modern subs too now (not that that makes a difference in a current situation exercise). Their carrier also has some Helix helicopters onboard and they are therefor capable of doing some long range defence too. They can shield the Red Sea entrance to the Indian ocean and if necessary also the Taiwan strait (from the base on the Andaman and Nicobar islands) to keep an eye on any possible sub entering the Indian ocean.
no such thing as being ‘injured’. no, im just a little confused about why some people are trying so hard to somehow change reality so that the chinese martine picture would resemble india when they can just use india as the example since this is just an acedemic exercise.
i strongely disagree with the assertion that indian trade is somehow unimportant to the world economy, but then that side of the debate has been sidesteped right from the start.
i have no idea where you get the idea that there are any chockpoints for chinese shipping. point them out if you can. and your spacing argument is completely irrelevent. if anything, china has just as much if not more space to use, but thats beside the point. modern SSNs can easily locate any surface ship within the entire indian ocean and ID any warships.
problem only arises with commerical shipping, since most of the world’s merchant ships are built by the same countries (japan, SK, china, US etc), so its hard telling who’s using the ships without going close to eyeball them. in the indian ocean, you can re-route neutrals far more easily to have a bubble about 1000km wide around the indian coast in which the only commerical ships are indian. and SSNc can then use their endurance advantage to go after them.
unless india adopts a convoy system, RN SSNs can easily bypass any surface search groups. indian ASW might be stronger then that of china’s, but is it stronge enough to protect its carriers against an SSN wolfpack attack? i dont think so. without the carriers, IN surface ships will be in big trouble if they wonder past shore based ASW airborn asset coverage, so there so the convoy strategy.
as for indian SSKs. well china has more SSKs, and more modern SSKs. you’r better off trying to factor in the alkulas.
plawolfso the question then becomes, can the PLAN position its assets effectively enough to have a very high probability of one of its ASW assets being in the right place at the right time to catch an SSN firing a fish, and then whether it (and any backup it can call upon) can engage and sink the SSN using passive and/or active detection means?
I agree with that absolutely. Given the limits of the current PLAN ASW force choppers, escorts, SSK’s and MPA’s I cant see how you can concentrate them in suffcient force to perform a successful contact prosecution and still have them spread out over sufficient area, covering both patrol zones, to pick up a random short-duration launch transient. You can say that you would rely on luck but the odds against you are astronomical!
so, let me get this right. the RN, who is trying to enforce a blockade, can just roam around and strike anywhere they like (within the blockade zones). but the PLAN, who is tasked with breaking shipping out of the blockade zone, and who can control the exact movements of its shipping, have to patrol the whole zone. doesnt that seem a little…well, backwards to you? :confused:
there wouldnt be an RN if blockade and anti-blockade warfare was like that. 😮
did you read the bit where i explained how the PLAN can used its control over shipping movements to its advantage? if the RN dont even try to stop every ship it sees heading for china, then there is no blockade by definition, its just a ship sinking excerise. if that is the case, why bother with the exclusion zones at all?
yes, i remeber, setting up the exclusion zones is so that the RN’s SSNs dont have target ID problems. but as the modified map i will post shows, chinese shipping dont have to go past any specific points after they leave the chokehold of the Malacca Straits, they can just follow the japanese and SK shipping lanes until they feel like making a dash for shore or where they have been told there are SSKs waiting nearby. after they get to the safety of the chinese EEZ, they can just follow the coast to whichever port they like.
i have still to see anyone come up with any solutions to that strategy. and if there are no solutions, then isnt the blockade broken?
just while we are on unresolved matters, i have not seen any meantion of what there is to stop chinese shipping just using the gaps in the exclusions zones to get to shore and then follow the coast to their destinations. again, if this cant be adequetly addressed, then the blockade is broken.
Fair one. My ex-wife always did tell me I was arrogant 😎 . Sincerest apologies sir!
no prob mate, also sorry if i sounded rud before or after this post. nothing meant by it. (well not to you at least) 😉
…but what we are trying to do, without the politics, does have practical value in terms of relative ASuW capabilities of varying platforms and weapon systems. Shall we deviate the course of the thread to examine, closely, the force mix that would be required to perform Crobato’s surface vessel blockade of the same Chinese ports?. Then we can add up the cost of the SSNs required to do the job and compare them to the costs of the surface ships, aircraft and screening submarines required for the surface blockade!?
i see your point, however just as SSNs have certain advantages over surface vessels, they also carry with them certain disadvantages, and target ID is one of them. because of this, how can you come up with a conclusion of any meaningful value if you only acknowledge the strengths of SSNs but ignores the problems associated with their use?
how would an assessment of the battle of the atlanctic (before US formal involvement) have ended if the presence of US ships had been ignored? german u-boats specifically stayed away from the US coast where british shipping congregated because of the fear of accidentally sinking US ships (or rather sinking too many of them). hope you are getting what im trying to say.
The problem with that statement though is that China dont have all that many modern SSK’s and those you have will need to be widely spread out to reinforce the poorer-equipped Mings and Romeo’s. Yes when an SSK is just making steerageway it is quiet, but, it is also stationary and able to control only a very small bubble of sea space – especially when we talk of the fairly basic sonars the vast majority of PLAN SSK’s appear to mount. The other thing is, as we’ve discussed, SSK’s are only silent when on-station. The SSNs could have been in place weeks prior to any PLAN SSK surge and watch them take up station, they would have the strategic initiative as the blockade would be to a UK timetable.
well again, read the bit in one of my previous post about how shipping can be routed past SSK ‘posts’ to trap SSNs. remeber, the PLAN only need to sink 2~3 SSNs to break the blockade.
also, it is a little unrealistic to think that RN would suddenly decide to blockade china without any signs of it. there will be a gradual deteriation of relations, and the PLAN will be on high alert long before UK polititions give the go ahead to send SSNs in. remeber the problems the UK would face if one of their SSNs was seen in chinese waters when no formal hostility has broken out. dont really help to get world on your side as the UK would look like the aggressor. the UK would almosy certainly try to repair relations to stop it getting to the brink of war, and sending SSNs to the other guy’s door step stinks of gunboat deplomacy if they are found (lets face it, if the UK wanted to use gunboat deplomacy, they would not be sending in subs but the carriers). but again, getting into politics arent we? :diablo:
even if we were to move past that obvious, crater of a whole in that argument. SSKs, especially the modern ones are extremely hard to find even when they are moving quite fast (well, as long as they are not going flat out), meaning an RN boat will have to be in just the right place at the right time to have a chance of hearing an SSK logging on or off. add in the fact that RN SSN are extremely few in number as it is and they will mostly be on the lookout for or attacking merchants (which is their primary task), and also the size of the exclusions zones… well lets say that the chances of an RN SSN being close enough to hear an SSK going on station or going off station without being detected itself is ‘astronomical’, as you put it. 😉
also, if the UK plans to have any chance of getting neutrols out of the exclusions zones, then they will need to tell everybody where the zones are, and when they come into effect. and they have to tell everyone quite some time in advanced as well.
plawolfpretty impresive pic. there is probably a whole serise of shots right up to the piont of interception. but guess we are lucky to see even this as it is.
plawolfNews to me if they have. IIRC, the RN SSNs, or at least one of them, was involved in the initial assault on Afghanistan with Tomahawks less than 2 years ago.
well there was a major PR storm over that reporting, as the reporter made it seem that the boat he was on fired missiles when it didnt.
add:
but now that i think of it, it could have been the sub launched harpons they did away with, will have to check and get back to you.
plawolfplaaf test flie’s mirage’s. I count 2 more mirage in the background. could be on more.now which version is this.I lean to 2000N.don’t know why they want to test fly F1 version. and about the PAK buying J-10.not that china don’t want to sell.but where would they built all these j-10 at?.
dont see any form of id on the guy, he could be from anywhere. even if he is chinese, he is most likely to be a ROCAF pilot than a PLAAF one. (taiwan has M2k-5s, so they would have sent pilots over to test and train in mirages).
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