WOW, I don’t know what to say.
Kim’s regime IS his father’s…it took the North Koreans to turn a communist revolution into a monarchy/dynasty. Aside from some of the old men dying off, I haven’t seen much change in the N. Korean government since Kim’s father’s regime. Same system of government, same military-based economy, same allies, same lack of openess to the outside word, same press restrictions… Any moves to get closer to the west have been made to get more money/food from the other party.
Any comparison of that with Japan’s 100% new post-1945 governmental system…with a pacifist consitution, no less…is just silly.

Then I would suggest you do not know the nature of Kim’s government or that of post-war Japan’s.

With the kind of ‘supreme-ruler’ government that NK has, the only person’s opinion that matter’s is the supreme ruler’s. Everyone else just follows orders, and typically in such regimes, are just a bunch of yes-men who wouldn’t dare utter an alternative view for fear of their lives. As such, the nature of the government completely changes from ruler to ruler.

As for post war Japan, well there was never the thorough rooting out of hardcare facists and imperialists like what happened in Germany. Many notorious monsters made deals with the Americans for immunity and even more were never even tried for their war crimes and were re-intergrated into post-war society and even government. So 100% new is pushing it a little.

From today’s news, an example of the way Japan now does things…(from an AP story)
“North Korea’s missile tests last week caused no injuries or damage, but they sparked international condemnation. Officials in Japan — badly shaken by the tests — said Monday they were mulling whether their pacifist constitution allowed pre-emptive strikes on North Korean missile targets.
“If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack … there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe.”

Now can you imagine North Korea discussing this matter openly within an elected government and in front of a free press?

Of Course not.

I’m not saying Japan will NEVER be a threat…times and circumstances change.
But based on what we know right now, and based on history…N. Korea is the bigger threat.

One really have to wonder if you are actually registering what you are reading mate. Here you are, actually using an example of how some are twisting Japan’s pacifist constitution to allow for the Japanese military to engage in offensive ‘pre-emtive’ action as evidence that the Japanese are likely to be more ‘safe’ with nuclear weapons?

Do you honestly think that there is even suggestion of actually attacking Japan in NK? On the other hand, not only is there discussion in Japan, but the provailing view seems to be that they are perfectly within their rights to attack NK. Is it that hard to imagine this same discussion but in deciding whether or not to use nuclear weapons if Japan had them?

Actually, he wasn’t.

The Nazis never won a majority in the Riechstag. The semi-senile German President Hindenburg appointed Hitler Chancellor at the head of a coalition government in which the Nazis held only 3 of 12 cabinet posts. The Nazis seized uncontested power shortly afterwards in what amounted to a coup d’etat.

It can be argued whether the above is relevent. If we take democrasy as its most universally recognised princple of rule by the most popular person, then the wildly popular Hitler would still have been elected even if there were fair elections in Germany later on.

Ironically enough, he was appointed because the German political establishment – and notably ex-Chancellor Von Papen – thought that he was naive and easily-controllable.

Which just goes to show, really…………..

But there is a huge difference between assuming someone to be naive and easily-controllable to assuming them to be of at least normal intellegence and thus able to figure out what is a really stupid and pointless thing to do.

Oh… and I’m calling “Godwin” on you too, plawolf! :D:D:D

Game on then. :p

I’d say that the J10 should be comparible to the Rafale and EF in terms of manoverability, and if the TVC engine order is true, then the newest batches should even have better agility. However, in terms of avionics and radar, I’d say that the EF and Rafale should have a fairly large advanatge.

And although you dismiss Sauron, his point that a democratic and peaceful Japan IS aess a threat to the region than N. Korea shouldn’t be easily dismissed.

For example:
1.Japan is a stable democracy. N. Korea isn’t

Democarsy means nothing on its own, its just a word. Hitler was elected into office democratically; democratic America has invaded or bombed more nations then any other country. Being a democrasy on its own means nothing, or do you think Hamas should also get some nukes?

Secondly, if Japan is arming up with nukes, then you can hardly call them a pacifist state. You keep forgetting that the Japan armed with nukes if different from the Japan without nukes.

2. N. Korea has a nuke weapons program. Japan doesn’t.

Japan doesn’t need one. In the BBC archieves you can find an article in which a Japanese minister is quoted as boasting that Japan can have hundreds of nuclear warheads within months if they decide to make them.

3. N. Korea has a long range military missile program. Japan does not.

Some minor mods to Japan’s sat launch rockets will easily turn them into ICBMs with far greater range and payload then anything NK can come up with in 10 years time.

4. Japan has something to lose in a massive war…it’s not a strtetch to believe if Kim and his government were faced with destruction, it could decide to take a lot of people with it. (Let’s face it, he won’t have a long happy life if the communits lose power in the north…unless Chine decides to take pity on him and set him up with a mansion, money, staff and women).

Thats hardly what I would call a fair comparison. NK, or more precisely, Kim and the NK leading elite, also have something to loose in the event of all out war. Neither is it a stretch to believe that the Japanese would resort to using nukes, if they had them, in the face of destruction, from say NK nuclear missiles.

A Japanese nuclear ‘pre-emptive’ strike is far more likely then a NK nuclear first strike.

5. And using history as a guide…the current N. Korean government (albeit Kim’s father) has started a war (and done other mischief..kidnapping, breaking arms treaties, etc.) Japan’s has not.

I suggest you read up on history then, purhaps starting with WWII, and you would see that the Japanese have done things far far worse then the NKoreans. And please don’t nit pick with the term ‘current gov’, cos Kim’s father’s regime is not his, and if the crimes of the father can be blamed on the son for NK, the same should be applied to Japan.

Based on these, I think your relative trust of N. Korea and fear of Japan is misplaced.

My reasoning is based on cold logic and not coloured by emotion or pre-conceptions. If you would just shut out your contempted and irrational fear of NK, then you would also see how ridiculous the idea of NK launching nuclear missiles at Japan is. They are bluffing and everyone knows it.

So everyone is crasy until proven otherwise?

You honestly don’t think Kim is a nutcase?

Being ‘evil’ does not automatically equate to being crazy and/or stupid.

Does anyone here have any evidence, even circumstantial, that can show Kim to be crazy and/or stupid? I don’t, so I’m not assuming him to be so. Or is that also crazy? :rolleyes:

So North Korea as a fascist slave state is less dangerous than a democratic Japan would be if it had nuclear weapons. Well that is an interesting point of view, however, it assumes that Kim is not crazy and we don’t know that.

So everyone is crasy until proven otherwise? :rolleyes:

Japan has been a model citizen for the last 60 yrs. If NK is allowed to contine to threaten the neighbourhood , Japan could very well develop it’s own nuclear insurance deterrent force in a few months. However, there is no reason to believe Japan would become a danger to the region. They became a huge economic power via peaceful means.

Japan doesn’t need its own ‘nuclear detterence’ because it is already under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella.

Its also amusing to suggest that a pacifist state is just as harmless if they renonce their pacifist stance while starting to arm up with nuclear weapons.

It will be interesting to see whether or not China and Russia will agree to any kind of meaningfull U.N. resolution with teeth. As this has never happened, we don’t know how the NK might react. If Kim is not crazy he will have to strike a deal he could not easily cheat on. If he is crazy, it might be better to deal with him now before he develops a nuclear weapon installed on a missile of significant range.

“If they do exactly what we want, they are sane, otherwise they are a bunch of dangerous nutjobs who must be dealt with now, damn it now!!!”

I’ll admit I’m no expert on internal Japanese polotics, but I think this talk of Japan becoming an nuclear imperial power are more than a bit premature.

But who said a nuclear armed Japan is just around the corner?

Asisde from a few far-right nutjobs, is there a real movement for Japan tobecome an area military power? I haven’t heard the major parties or the “man on the street” want to go back to the imperialist days of the 30s.

These far right nutjobs are not as few as some might think, and there have been a slow, but seemingly steadly change in the position of the main parties and a general attitude change amounst the general populous in regard to Japan’s pacifist stance. Go have a look at the BBC archieves for the kind of rehtoric that seem to be popular with a growing number of Japanese. Particularly those from the foreign minister – who also happens to be a top candander to be the next Japanese PM.

I can see where some of it’s neighbors with long memories might be a bit afraid, but IMHO a nuclear Japan would still be less a threat than China or N. Korea.

In that I would have to disagree.

Firstly, to see a nuclear armed Japan, there needs to be a massive shift to the right for the Japanese parties and populous. Secondly, a nuclear armed NK is of little threat to anyone because they haven’t the ability to be able to use their nuclear weapons without unacceptable consequences – ie total thermal nuclear destruction. A nuclear armed Japan is a completely different matter as they would likely be able to attain the ability of nuclear first strike without consequence against the likes of NK. That ability will make it far more tempting for Japan to use nukes than NK as they are far more likely to ‘get away with it’.

So, to sum up, NK might have nukes, but they will never have a viable option to use them in a first strike scenario because the consequences of doing so are too obvious and high for anyone to miss. However, a nuclear armed Japan with a functional TMD system might think they can get away with a nuclear ‘pre-emptive’ strike against NK without having to suffer any retaliation. Who do you think is more likely to actually use nukes?

Japan is smart enough to know that one of the reasons for it’s current economic state is that it hasn’t had to spend that much on defense. And when it does, it seems to spend wisely (paying more for home-built F-15s than ones out of St. Louis) to get technology transfer.

Japan is so rich that it doesn’t need to spend much of its GDP to get a military second to possibly only the US, and even then not by far. Japan investing heavily in its military will have a neglagable effect on its economy. In fact, if they invest in indiginous systems, investing heavily in the military will probably HELP its economy.

Japan will remain “cute and fuzzy” for a long time yet (I mean how dangerous can a country be where a major export is “Hello Kitty?” 😀 ). China, with increasing needs for more natural resources…I’m not so sure.

Thats more hopeful then probable.

A nuclear Japan is probably a worst nightmare situation for everyone in the region including NK.

Oh yes of course….much more of a threat than North Korea with their perfectly sane nut ball of a “Dear Leader.”

Japan would pose a huge threat to China and the entire Korean peninsula might be in danger.

A nuclear armed Japan could be a far bigger threat to EVERYONE than NK could hope to ever be.

Japan has the potential to easily transform its economic and technological might into military might, and nuclear weapons are the ultimate taboo. If Japan choses to go nuclear, then it wouldn’t take much more for them to decided to arm up concentionally too. In fact, I can’t really see them arming up with nuclear weapons without having first gone through the conventional arming up phase.

Apparently Hirohito and Tojo have been reincarnated…..

Wouldn’t suprise me if some cults were trying to do it. 😀

Did you hear they are trying to get nuclear wiring for their F-4’s and F-15’s? I think the F-2 might be included as well……..

Don’t be silly, they can just put a warhead or dozen on one of their sat launchers. Why bother with fighters when you can easily jurry-rig yourself some ICBMs?

plawolf you generally post reasonable responses and make for good debate, but did you think this one through? While I don’t want anyone else to develop nuclear weapons (including Japan), I’d say that if it were Japan with these missiles as opposed to North Korea, the world would be a bit less concerned.

Yes I did, and you’d be suprised. I personally think that even your pentagon would be far more concerned with a nuclear armed Japan then NK.

As I have said before, NK is just a neuscence. But Japan can easily be a very real and dangerous threat.

Don’t make me laugh by trying to say that a nuclear Japan would be a bigger problem than a nuclear North Korea because it just doesn’t hold water…….

There are no eternal friends or enemies in international politics, only capacity lasts forever. A nuclear armed Japan would also no longer be the ‘cute and fuzzy’ Japan you think you know today.

Just because the Japanese are being more proactive about this situation than playing the completely passive side as Russia and China are doesn’t mean they would post the threat the North does with nuclear weapons.

Yon need to read up on history if you think that is the only reason people would have to be worried about a nuclear armed Japan.

I’m slightly unnerved by Kim’s actions and I live in the Untied States (in the southeast right now outside the range of even the stage 3 version of the Taepodong 2 missile)….because nobody can predict just what his intentions are at this point nor what he will do.

And you honestly think Kim’s is stupid or mad enough to actually use his nukes on the US or anyone else? His nukes are a deterence at best.

Ever since before history was recorded, people have been using irrational fear to manipulate other people into doing rash and unreasonable things. I think we are now seeing that backfire slightly here for some.