a smart move from the North Korean side, because they then can say.. “look at us. Poor old North korea is being forced to defend its self from Japan and South Korea. 10 years down the line nobody will remember that North Korea started this game of brinkmanship, and will play the oppressed civilization card having to defend its ideals against the capatilists of America,South Korea and Japan. The sad thing is, because of the censorship in North Korea, the people will believe it, as they have no idea of what is going on outside there own borders.

Also if you was the japanese Prime Minister, you wouldn’t be happy that North Korea has started its nuclear processing plants. Along with development of there missles. What would you do?

I’m afraid that just doesn’t make sense. NK don’t need to invent a new ‘reason’ to do anything, and besides, they can play the oppressed civilization or any game with the US. A nuclear Japan is probably a worst nightmare situation for everyone in the region including NK.

On the otherhand.. Perhaps North Korea does want to go down the diplomatic route. there economy is non existant, chronic food and power shortages. they can use the nuclear and missle programes and barganing chips for aid

Now that sounds like a far more likely reason.

The key to North Korea is China…. Negiotiate with Beijing who will inturn talk to Pyongyang and open up diplomatic talks. But…. This could be a very clever move…Japan is a non nuclear weapon country..with these moves made by North Korea, Japan with its industrial power might be forced into becoming a nuclear super-power, with the increasing threat from NK, inturn South Korea will become more defensive, along with an increased detachment from the U.S.A. Either Pyongyang is playing poker and bluffing with a pair of 2’s or in 5-10’s year time will become a major threat to the whole area!

How is giving Japan a decent excuse to go nuclear a ‘smart move’ for anyone except the rightwing japanese imperialists?

Also i was under the impression that President Clinton came to an agreement with North Korea to stop developing intercontinental ballistic missles in return for $30-40million of oil a year.. It seems that this agreement has been broken.

I think Bush scrapped that deal after they found out about NK cheating on nuclear enrichment.

I can foresee China joining in a war with South Korea and Japan against the DPRK if the US pushes for war. If Bush insist on bring another war between America and the Pacific Region. Then Japan, South Korea, and China will pre-emptively strike the north first. China will want the war to be over with as quickly as possible. The war will be limited to ousting Kim Jong Il. He is the main problem at this point. Everybody wants him out, but does not know how to do so.

You can rule out China ever fighting alongside Japan short of aliens invading.

I once also thought it possible for China and SK to reach a deal between themselves and with agreement from the US for the two Asian powers to ‘deal’ with NK while the US stayed out of the war and helped with the reconstruction afterwards. The incentive for the two countries would be that for China, they can detatch themselves from the negative image and problems that NK causes while drastically improving relations with SK. For SK, the incentives are obvious.

However, even before NK became nuclear, the costs of such a war with the North for both China and SK (in terms of money and lives) would have been prohibatively high, especially for SK, who’s many major cities are likely to be heavily shelled in any conflict with the North. Now that Nk have become a nuclear power, its almost impossible to mount any military operation against NK.

The only people even thinking about the military option anymore are the Americans and maybe the Japanese – who won’t have to face the full consequences of a war with NK.

If the US is determined to attack NK no matter the cost or consequences, the most help they can expect from China is intel on NK. China has no reason to get directly involved in this, and the costs are too high. China is certainly not willing to sacrific cities for Uncle Sam or anyone.

You have to admit, Kim Jong Il understands how to control people. If you are a North Korean who is inundated with propaganda films praising Kim Jong Il everyday, you would wonder if you are the only person that feels that way about Kim. You would be fearful for your life and would not know who to trust. The key to the Kim Dynasty’s collapse is in his propaganda machine. South Korea fears all the volley of missiles that will come at Seoul if there is a war. If you can get those soldier to disobey that command to fire. Kim is finished.

As far as I know, the military is the most loyal and hardline segment of NK society. It might be possible to get them to turn on Kim, but that’ll just replace one ‘hardman’ with another. It’ll be very hard to get them to turn on everything they have been taught to beleive in since they can remember and have likely not known of any other way of thought since.

I think the key to the downfall of Kim is knowledge through interaction with the outside world. The more the NK people learn about the outside world, the more ridiculous Kim’s propaganda will be to them, and the more Kim’s grip on them will loosen. And thats exactly what SK is trying to do in the long term.

Plawolf

Try reading my comment about the U.S. and Russian missile tests in it’s proper context and you might get it.

Sauron

I know the context you wrote it in, but do get mine?

How about in future we stop this little ‘ritual’ of ours? I think its pretty obvious that neither of us will have much luck changing the other’s mind, so how about we just write what we want and forget what the other guy thinks?

My future replies to your posts will be for the benefit of other members and guests who might read your posts as opposed to be addressed directly at you, and I’ll assume the same from you unless otherwise informed. Does that sound like a reasonable agreement to save us all some time?

Sounds to me like their strategy might be changing because I just heard on the news that South Korea plans to reduce and/or stop humanitarian aid to the North.

Its just political guestering, I would be very suprised if the long term strategy is changed.

I can’t figure out Russia and China…..my only guess is that they enjoy watching the United States (and I guess Japan) get nervous.

What exactly does China or Russia have to gain by helping the US get NK to play ball? NK is no threat to either China or Russia, so why should they stick their nose in this big bowl of wrong? The status quo is not the most desireable situation for China or Russia, but neither is it the worst. On balance, its not really worth risking it all going horrible wrong just to get a word of praise from someone who will quickly forget about this favour.

If China or Russia did have an alterior motive in not giving their all to the cause, it would not be anything as petty or pointless as merely making the US sweat. Both nations are on the ascendency, and what they want above all is time to grow without interference. If the US in concerned about NK, then it’ll have less time to worry about China or Russia.

The idea that everyone completely ignoring Kim and him simply shutting up and going away doesn’t really hold much water with me.

I would suggest you go back and re-read my last post. When did it say he will just go away? He’ll be a neuscence for as long as he is in power, but nothing more.

He wants attention and as soon as he doesn’t get it, there’s no telling what he might do.

Maybe not, but there will be things that he will not do, things like firing missiles AT another nation.

He’s not a rational man….I wish people would stop treating him as such. He’s not stupid, and I realize that. However, he doesn’t act in a rational manner.

‘Rationality’ is subjective. He might be excentric and not a little erratic at times, but he is more then capable of forming a rational scheme, and there are limits to his erratic nature that all combine to make him predictable to a certain degree. He might suprise you with one of his little stunts, but he’s not stupid enough to make a big mistake. As such, he is not a real threat to long term stability in the region.

Another thing that bothers me is that they say they won’t launch any missiles and they sign an agreement saying so, and when they do…..nobody (namely Russia & China) are willing to do anything about it.

IIRC, its a SELF-IMPOSED moritorium against future tests. There is no binding commitment. They did it out of ‘good faith’ (or more likely, because they knew they couldn’t afford to launch more missiles for quite a while, so they might as well try and take advanatge of it).

Its like someone promising their neighbours that they will stop dumping rubbish on their lawn. They get koodose for agreeing to it, but you can’t take them to court if they later decide they want to start dumping again, its their ‘property’ after all, and they have just as much right to do what they want in their own home as anyone else.

That’s like telling your dog not to take a **** on the floor and when he does you don’t rub his face in it. You pick him up and tell him it’s okay. How will he learn?

Maybe if you thought of them as equals instead of your biatch, you’d be a little less upset.

Adapting your ‘sh!ting’ example. Its your neighbour who is crapping on his front lawn, the smell bothers you, but the excrement is on HIS property, and there is no laws against someone crapping on his own lawn (you say he is causing pollution, he says he’s furtilising his plants).

I don’t know if direct talks between the U.S. and NK are a good idea because it will make Kim think he can have leverage on us by having these missiles.

If him having these missiles bothers you, then he has leverage over you whether you like it or not. If it doesn’t bother you, stop complaining as Kim will just take that as evidence that he is getting to you no matter what you say.

Diplomacy is the way, but Russia and even more so…..China…..need to get involved and quit pretending like this situation should be ignored.

The situation doesn’t bother them, it bothers you. You are asking them for a favour, not the other way round. Treating them like you are the one doing them a favour will not endear your cause to them, nor is it more likely to get them to make real sacrifices to help you sort out your problem.

I have similar thoughts on Iran. Appeasement and ignoring a problem never makes it go away.

Some problems are better left well along as opposed to being treated badly. If you have a pimple, a cream is the best way to deal with it, but when a cream is not available, taking things into your own hands and popping the pimple will make things worse compared to just leaving it and letting it sort itself out.

Obviously, the above does not apply to all situations, but then neither does your suggestion. Flexibility is often a better idea then a rigid fundermentalist position.

As for Iran, well there is another thread for that, so lets not take up any more of this one on it.

I’m quite sure that although firing missiles into space is legal, making threats towards a neighbour isn’t.

And which countries makes the most threats to other nations? Don’t see any sanctions against America or Israel. :rolleyes:

If North Korea has to fire the missiles over Japan, the sensible thing to do would be to not test-fire them at all given the current political climate, until the current problems are actually resolved.

And when would be a good time to test these missiles exactly?

Also if a solution is reached, it would probably involve reducing/removing such capabilities anyway.

That’s what most would call wishful thinking. You’ll have better luck convincing Americans to give up their guns.

Making such provocative gestures is counter-productive. The fact it still does it anyway shows that North Korea is the problem and not merely engaging in its sovereign blaa-blaa-blaa.

And just what ‘problem’ are they then?

If no clause, how about politeness, respect for one’s neighbor, etc, etc.
I dare say would’d probably be a bit concerened if it were your country.

And being rude is worthy of international sanctions? Come on!

Yes, I would be pretty concerned if someone like the US or Japan fired missiles over China, but not North Korea, in which case I would just laugh, and I would certainly not be calling for sanctions in either case.

Kim might be unpredictable, but he’s not stupid. For him to order a nuclear first strike against China or Japan or Russia or SK would be the same as for him to put a gun to his head, and he knows it. If there is one thing predictable about tin pot dictators, it is that they are pretty damn keen about self preservation and generally very good at it, because they have too much to loose to take silly pointless risks. (Its the fanatics and idealists that you should really be worried about.)

They only take risks when they fear for their lives and/or power, in which case they can be extremely dangerous because they have so very much to protect, and loosing it all is not an option to them as that would be worse then death. That is why I am far more concerned about what the Americans might do.

Kim is like a wild dog, he will bark and grawl at you and try and steal scraps off your table, but raise your hand and he’ll run away with his tail tucked neatly between his legs. He’s a neusence but not a real threat because he knows the second he actually bites someone, he’ll get put down. However, if you corner him and he thinks you’re about to kill him, then all bets are off.

The only thing that is changed by NK aquiring nukes and delivery systems is to rule reunifying the two koreas militarily out as a viable option. That actually changes suprisingly little for China and SK because military reunification was never a serious option for them to start with. Both nations have, and will continue to believe that reunification can be achieved eventually via peaceful means, and the key to that is economical and social integration by first reunifying the peoples. Then the military can be ‘brought over’ eventually, and once that happens, the polititions have no way to prevent reunification. Purhaps now SK’s strategy towards NK makes more sense. They are in it for the long haul, and they would rather play this out safe rather then take a rash risk just to get a quick fix.

The Chinese avionics industry seemed to have come of age lately, with some pretty impressive stuff being unvailed. I seriously doubt that the lack of European avionics will kill off the Z15 if the PLA is really interested. They are mostly interested in the engineering part of the project anyways. Hell, a lot of people in the PLA would probably prefer home-grown avionics anyways.