Doubt it. US and russian spy satelites have most likely monitored the Chinese air fields and proving grounds closely for years. An hypotetical earlier test flight should have been detected -and leaked to media- in one way or the other.

And they can keep one, let alone all, of those installations monitored 24/7?

Satellite overpass timetables are easy to establish for a country like China. If they want to keep something secret, the chances anyone would catch it with a spysat is slim to be generous.

Been away for a while because of RL commitments, so appologies for the delay in responding.

Bearing in mind the other reasonably firm clues we have, that is actually by far the most likely explanation, since I do not believe that the engines have been changed – so only a minor repaint involved.

I think this ‘minor repaint’ fantasy has been thoroughly enough debunked by others already.

The temperatures required for the engine petals is far beyond the tolerances of mere paints. That is why engine petals are never painted even when camo paint has been thoroughly applied to all other parts of the plane.

If special materials is applied to the petals, it is for heat resistance or other practical purposes. Which is why the entire petals are treated uniformly. It is completely unprecedented for ‘paint’ to only be applied to part of the petal, so the coloring is also representative of the shape.

From the shape, we can see that it is a completely newly designed engine exhaust in place instead of merely a new lick of paint.

I think a question you need to apply to all of your ‘theories’ is the ‘why’ question.

It is simplicity itself to come up with any random theory or explanation for anything. But the only theories or explanations worthy of even being mentioned, let alone debated, should be the ones that at the very least makes sense.

So, why would the Chinese want to ‘paint’ the engine petals a different color, even if that was possible?

If the answer is plain stupid/silly/nonsensical, then chances are the theory is too, and should be discarded.

Concur – which is why I strongly doubt that there was an engine change in the first place.

So, why would the change the engine petals last minute? Bare in mind that none of this was ‘caught’ but was rather ‘displayed’. CAC chose to allow the AL31 equipped prototype be seen.

If they didn’t want anyone to know they were using AL31s, why not show the plane with the new petals from the start?

The nozzles on the J-20 have at best a passing resemblance to the WS-10. I don’t know why you bring up the J-11B, I never made any comment on it at all. Why would you dress up an aircraft (or any detail aspect of it)? Well, for a publicity stunt, of course.

I bring up the J11B because as with that aircraft, the only visible indication that a different engine is used is the different exhaust petals.

How can you take two almost identical cases and accept one has a different engine and insist another merely has a new lick of paint?

As for the publicity stunt suggestion, well I think I already covered that. Why allow the prototype to be seen with the ‘old’ engine and bare panels at all in the first place?

So you believe the J-20 will enter service powered by AL-31FNs?

I was merely humoring you by showing you the evidence would support my hypothesis even if the prototype was using AL31s, which I personally doubt.

Again, where are you pulling the assumption from that there is anything other than a pair of AL-31FN with painted nozzles in there?

Because as has been pointed out, the idea of painting engine nozzles is inherently silly and completely unprecedented. I cannot think of a single case where this has ever happened before.

There are also a number of other important indicators, such as President Hu himself presenting an award for a major breakthrough in engine development a matter of weeks before the J20 was shown.

There has also been other, less official reports, of special WS10As being delivered to CAC. At first, everyone assumed they were for integration with J10A/Bs, now a new possibility has presented itself.

Oh yeah, that’s why they flew in two 737s worth of VIPs, built an elaborate VIP stand and stuck the ground crews in spiffy uniforms. Sure :rolleyes:

And only in China are VIPs present for important first flights? :rolleyes: The fact that there are VIPs or other onlookers is no excuse to behave unprofessionally by disregarding good practice to do some reckless stunts.

Where? I’ve not seen any.

Go back a few pages in this very thread to where we were discussing the possible locations of the weapons bays.

I must ask, but am I wasting my time here discussing this with you? Because I would have expected anyone who has such a firm opinion about something to have at the very least read through everything in this thread at the very least to be able to come up with the most basic of informed opinions.

If you disregard the six other points I have listed – yes. Not if you put this into proper context though, as I said.

Where have I done that? I have addressed each and every single one of your other points.

6 wrong points is no more convincing than 1.

Exactly – if it was moved by heavy transport plane you’d need an An-124 (I doubt the USAF would lend a C-5 or C-17), that’s what was used to bring the T-50 prototypes to Moscow. I doubt you see An-124s at Chengdu day in day out, so you’d imagine that would alert any observers to the fact that something is up.

They could be moving it by truck or rail, but that’s 600+km journey which would take several days to complete and I suspect you’re overestimating the degree to which disassembly would be practical. All in all, an unnecessarily complex operation.

Again, I cannot help but wonder if I am wasting my time.

Please show at the very least the maturity and respect by reading what I wrote and actually understanding if before replying.

I said “it will be broken down into parts and trucked to a rail station/airport in normal freight trucks”.

If they were to move the prototypes, it would be for actual testing. They are not going to make it easy for foreign powers to track its progress. If they moved it covertly to a busy airport/rail station, they could send the planes to one of many suitable test locations without drawing too much attention to where that is.

It would be a big ask for anyone to have enough spysats to keep one such location under constant observation for any length of time, never mind having to find out where it is first.

And that is a ‘worst case scenario’ of assuming they do not yet have the confidence for the plane to make the trip under their own power. This may be the case with the WS10 equipped prototype, but the Al31 equipped one may be deemed to be able to make the trip. If not in one go, than in stages at least.

[/UOTE]Exactly, there has to be a pretty good reason for it – that it is still lacking vital instrumentation for recording test data, for example. In fact, why would they be taking it easy at *any* point in such an important programme?[/QUOTE]

Surely you should know better than to assume that something isn’t there just because something isn’t easily visible?

The test instrumentation could easily be stored internally in the weapons bays, or have been temporarily removed for the purposes of the ‘publicity stunt’. Remember all the bare yellow patches all over the Al31 equipped prototype?

Secondly, as I have already pointed out, different prototypes are built for different stages of the test programme. If the WS10 equipped prototype is indeed a new built example, it may well be intended for something other than just basic flight testing.

Disagree. It is a strong indication that the prototype may not in fact be ready for useful testing yet. Not that there is anything wrong with the aircraft, just that some of the desired test equipment has not been installed yet in order to take advantage of a PR opportunity.

That is purely a matter of opinion. I see no point in further discussion on this matter, so lets just agree to disagree and move on.

Not at all. As I predicted, you can only explain them away by making additional assumptions beyond these seven (reasonably confirmed) points or using circular logic. And you have failed to address what those ground runs were all about (which, after all, involved both nozzle variants).

If you spent half as much time actually thinking about your points as you do trying to score points, I dare say you would have made more convincing arguments.

Something interesting about Eurofighter Typhoon from Cassidian.

•Selection of Eurofighter Typhoon will elevate strategic relationship between India and Europe
•Eurofighter partners invest in India even before the MMRCA selection

The Eurofighter Partner Companies are keen to win India as a new industrial partner for the production and further development of the world’s most advanced swing-role combat aircraft. Speaking at a media conference on the occasion of Aero India 2011, Bernhard Gerwert, CEO of Cassidian Air Systems and Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Eurofighter GmbH, outlined details of the industrial partnership offer to integrate India as a partner in the Eurofighter programme. Mr. Gerwert said: “Our ultimate objective is to win India as a key partner co-developing and co-producing future upgrades and enhancements, new sub-systems, software, etc.”

In order to phase India into the global Eurofighter Typhoon programme as a significant manufacturing and engineering partner, the Eurofighter partners pursue an ambitious industrialization strategy. Gerwert explained: “We are starting to develop the base for a comprehensive future supplier network which will plug India into the global Eurofighter supply chain. Even before the MMRCA selection, we invest in making India a new home for the Eurofighter Typhoon.”

http://www.cassidian.com/cassidian/int/en/press-centre/press-release-renderer.cbe0b78a-4385-4fe9-ae4d-2773fbd9eb85.fc408c5e-9de7-4b18-8ba6-68950768ffa9.html

‘Even before the MMRCA selection, we invest in making India a new home for the Eurofighter Typhoon.’

They’re very, very confident.

I think the British would be one of the main driving forces behind the Indian bid. If the Indians bite, the RN will have in effect, a naval Typhoon option for their carriers without having to pay any development costs and also make a hefty profit and keep a great many jobs safe for years to come.

If the Indians do go for the Typhoon, it would be interesting to see how that would impact on the RN F35 dealings.

Although I am not sure if the Indians would want to go for a naval Typhoon since they are already committed to the naval mig and the Rafale is already fully carrier capable and ready off-the-shelf today and offers pretty much the same capabilities as a naval Typhoon would.

My point is clearly lost on you.

BTW, I was only half joking with my remark about showing off to Robert Gates though. You don’t gather much useful test data in less than 20 minutes and the aircraft did not seem to be instrumented particularly extensively – no strain gauges all over the place, unlike the T-50. The apparent lack of follow-up flights so far lends further credence to the theory that this maiden sortie was mainly a publicity stunt, not the start of the actual test campaign (yet).

That’s only one way to look at it. It is just as, if not more likely that the J20 programme is actually a great deal more developed than that staged public ‘first flight’ would suggest.

It would be completely unprecedented for the Chinese to do an actual first time ever first flight so publicly. It would also see illogical to have two prototypes, one with AL31 and one with WS10G only to first fly with the WS10G. The entire purpose of using a mature engine like the AL31 would be to reduce risk with the first flight.

If they were confident enough to actually first fly the thing with the WS10G, then there would be little point in putting AL31 in another plane.

The ‘first flight’ we were allowed to see is very likely to be the first flight with a Chinese engine. But it is quite probable that the airframe itself had already gone through extensive flight testing previously using the AL31.

As for ‘no follow up flights’, well surely you are smart enough to realize that the PLA can keep a secret if it wants to?

Now that they have done their PR stunt and showed the world that the J20 is real and flies, there is no need to further parade the things in front of the lenses.

The J20 prototypes would very likely have been moved west to the remote flight test centers in the deserts where the real work can continue away from praying eyes and population centers in case something does go wrong.

Edit: rayrubik seemed to have deleted his post, so the response is no longer needed.