yama..I agree with 99% of what you say.. but f-22 is a bit different being the first 5th gen and all.

Lets keep it 4th gen and Cold War era since its an early 80s baby.. and no multination or multi-service shenanigans (so no F-22s or 35s.. and no Eurofighter)

I wanna give it the F-16s time line. YF-16 flew 1974. in service 1978. 4 years

so X-29 prototype flew 1984.. service 1988. maybe that’s too optimistic

ok lets do Gripen.. 1988, service 1996 so 8 years. but I think since its the US, they will have the will power to push through.

so lets just say 1988 to 1992! I think they could have stolen a few sales from Gripen and MiG-29s 🙂 but you probably got a point about F-16s.

Well, of course you could design an operational fighter based around the principles demonstrated by X-29, but it would be a substantial effort, similar to designing Eurofighter after EAP had flown. We are talking about service entry date of late ’90s, if things go well. By then Gripen is already on the market…

you’re right although I think it wouldn’t take so long as the Europeans would.. cuz you know.. Americans are faster as long as it is single service… Eurofighter had all the Euro-drama that delayed it.

No. Technology demonstrator is a far cry from an operational aircraft. You have to worry about things like getting useful endurance, carrying sensors and avionics, useful service life, carrying weapons – did X-29 even have any hardpoints? You’d essentially have to redesign the whole aircraft.
When Kestrel became Harrier, they had to redesign 90% of the aircraft, sometimes multiple times.

well yah, Yama Yama doo!
we were talking about if X-29 became an operational fighter. that means the transition from demonstrator to a fully developed plane. yup. zur Der our!

I believe it had capabilities for 6 hard points. 2 fuselage tandem. and 2 on each wing.

If there’s a need for a VTOL combat aircraft in the 2030s, why would it even be manned? VTOL UCAV would be cheaper, smaller; and as recent events show, when one gets shot down, doesn’t drag you into an unwanted war.

yeah true. but we’re not talking about the US which does innovative experimental research.
the other two just follows the lead of what ever the US produces… so unless the US makes a VTOL UCAV for their ships.. the other two won’t. especially China. but if they do.. you can bet it will have DSI

^ thanks for the buddy cakes.

STVOL plane sounds nice and I think China had thought about it at some point… but where would it be used? their existing carriers can handle conventional jets.

as for other stuff.. well in the old days its nice to try fund all these companies but in reality is Russia is cash strapped. they just cut a bunch of orders for their new tanks and are opting to just use their older ones.
Ilyushin and Mikey mouse can still exist, just building specialized versions of the FC-31 like HAL does with Flankers.

I found this from a Japanese site. its from a this month’s aviation magazine.

I had no idea they already began building the F-3 and got that far in engine development.

But then again.. me no can read Chinapanese

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The case of Austria is indeed an interesting one. The Draken and the Mirage III were evaluated several times over nearly 20 years with varying outcomes before the Austrian Air Force eventually bought the Swedish jet in the 1980s. .

In 1965 Saab offered 20-30 Draken (not sure about the version but given the year, presumably B or D) as a replacement for the J-29F Tunnan used by the Austrian Air Force at the time. At USD 1m per plane, including one squadron of J-35A for rent until the new built examples would arrive. The offer was considered unaffordable and at the same time the Northrop F-5A was the frontrunner to succeed the J29F. Partly because of the price and partly because the army factions within the armed forces preferred a fighter bomber and reconnaissance plane and had little appreciation for the need of air defense or, even less, air policing.

In 1967 a formal competition, including test flights by Austrian pilots, was conducted during which the F-5A, J-35D, A-4F and Mirage IIIE were evaluated. How the Skyhawk made it into the mix is a bit of a mystery given that the main task for the new plane was supposed to be air policing in peace and limited air defense during crisis situations (nobody ever believed that Austria could maintain air superiority in a WW III scenario). Predictably, the Mirage and Draken proved to be the most capable. In fact the Mirage was ranked first in terms of capability but was considered more complex and came with a noticeably higher price tag (10m Austrian Schilling more, at the time USD 0.4m, per plane). The evaluation commission recommended the purchase of 24 J-35D but, for reasons that are unclear to this day, the government eventually ordered a second batch of 20 Saab 105XT jet trainer. They would serve as the main “air surveillance aircraft” into the 1980s and still carry out a large part of QRA duties today (!!!).

In the mid-70s the Austrian government briefly considered the purchase a cousin of the Mirage III. The Israeli Kfir C2. Presumably, for mostly political reasons as the Austrian government at the time was very active in Middle Eastern diplomacy. After protests by Arab countries the idea was quickly shelved. Soon after, in 1980 the decision was made to purchase 24 new Mirage 50. Nothing is known about the selection process. The main criteria seemed to have been price as it was marketed as a cheap and proven alternative to the early 3rd generation jets of the time and was superior to the F-5E (which was repeatedly pitched to Austria during the 70s and 80s) as a QRA interceptor (climb rate, acceleration and top speed after scramble). Eventually, the budget for the purchase wasn’t approved.

In the early 80s the government undertook another attempt to purchase a “real” fighter jet. Scarred by the experience the focus was on used jets of the 2nd generation (J-35D, Mirage IIIE and BAC Lightening, not sure which version was offered exactly), although new Mirage 50 were in the mix again as well. According to an article in a magazine of the Austrian Army the technical evaluation led to the following results (score out of 1000)

1. Mirage 50 (675 pts) – unsurprisingly given the newer engine and avionics
2. Lightening (633 pts)
3. J-35D (622 pts)
4. Mirage IIIE (572 pts)

It is not clear what the criteria were used and the respective weighting but it is striking that the J-35D was now seen as considerably more capable than the Mirage IIIE while the evaluation of the same types about 16-17 years earlier came to the opposite conclusion.

Eventually, the price made the difference. The Mirage, even the used IIIE versions, were still considerably more expensive than the Draken (or the Lightning).

Total costs, incl. estimated operating costs for 10yrs (1000 h) in billions of Austrian Schilling:
Mirage 50 – 12.5b
Mirage III E – 8.8b
J35D Draken – 5.4b
Lightening – 5.2b

In the end the Draken won out. The acquisition costs were eventually negotiated down (2.4 instead of 2.7 billion Austrian Schilling) which gave it a slight financial edge over the Lightening. The Draken was considered to have the lowest operating costs in the field (but only just ahead of the Mirage IIIE) while the Lightening had the highest (estimated to be 1.6 x as high as the Draken per flight hour). Not surprising, considering that the two jets used the same engine, except the Lightening had 2 of them. Quite likely the long and close relationship of the Austrian air force with Saab (J-29F, S-91 Safir, S-105XT) and the political angle of another “neutral” country with an equally social-democratic dominated government played a role as well.

That didn’t prevent huge protests and a public perception that the Draken was a piece of crap. The death of an Austrian trainee pilot in a crash during conversion training in Sweden is not only testament to the not-so carefree handling of the Draken in some areas of the flight envelope (super-stall was already mentioned) but also almost killed its introduction into Austrian service. It definitely killed whatever was left of its reputation. That changed only slowly after the jets were used successfully to prevent further incursions by Yugoslavian MiGs during the civil war of 1991 in neighbouring Slovenia.

if those points and costs were true
then the Ligtening would have been the best. 2nd best results and cheapest operating costs…

but somehow I cant believe it. This is the BAC lightening!?
isn’t it significantly heavier and more complicated than the Mirage or Draken?