Point regarding “paintball” guns – I suspect they were not going to be using them to redecorate the ship with Dulux…
These weapons could have been used to fire either CS gas ball or pepper ball, which is a less-lethal option for use in confined or crowded spaces.

I don’t know. Even ordinary paint ammo could have the desired effect on the tactical level. Showing what they could do to you if they wished, could be a great psychological point. They could switch to pepper or gas if they needed to escalate the level of force. If you are setting the pace of events, you have the luxury to try things out. The whole operation lacked proportion.

How praytell do you get a terrorist organization to stop terrorising?

It’s simple. By making that organization lose popular support on it’s local population. Denying the same population basic human rights and living standards is a step in the opposite direction. Read some history. Back in WW2, Nazi forces occupying Greece, were executing 10 civilians for every German soldier killed by rebels. Do you think that that measure did anything to suppress rebel forces? Or did it send masses to join the rebels with everyone else giving them full support?

This is not supported by fact. The Israelis were armed primarily with paintball guns (very easily identified in the videos) and some had personal sidearms (handguns) for emergencies. Upon landing on the deck the Israelis were attacked with the aforementioned weapons and I can stipulate that metal bars are quite lethal. Additionally the attackers on teh Turkish ship disarmed some of the Israelis and turned the captured pistols on them and wounded at least two of them.

Furthermore there are numerous photo’s of “wrist rocket” type slingshots and those too are quite lethal. It is patently obvious to anyone with a brain and the intellectual honesty to perceive the truth that the people on the ship were looking for a fight. Information has come out that many of them had written out their wills as well. So they knew what they were doing.

This is how a clever idea is ruined by poor planing. Using paintball guns against activists was brilliant. Imagine the scene. Daylight, the Israel navy ship sailing close to the aid ship, sending a boarding party by boat, while commandos on choppers shooting paintballs to anyone threatening the boarding party (like throwing stuff at them or moving around armed with sticks). And you can do it under live media coverage. You actually need media coverage for that. You are sending the message, that you are doing your job while showing restrain If despite the paintballs, the boarding party gets attacked (live, on Aljazeera), who can really blame you for using force. And then again, you use force with caution. You have all the time to do it right. A couple of soldiers thrown at sea is no reason to start shooting people. Give them some clear real ammo warning shots first. If they persist, use a sniper to lightly injure someone. Eventually you’ll get control of the ships.

Instead some wise guy, decides to have the whole operation in the middle of the night with commandos dropping on the ships out of the sky. Tell me Gary, what would you have thought it is going on, if you were on that ship. Soldiers dropping out of nowhere, at night and shooting people with something that looks like a gun? The element of surprise and confusion in enemy ranks are valid military tactics. Using those tactics when the “enemy” is civilians and you want to minimize all casualties, is plain STUPID.

Last, I agree with bluewings, at least in the spirit of his posts. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict goes on for so long, that BOTH sides are runned by extremists. The ones that pay the price though, are the innocent ordinary people both Israeli and Palestinian. I think that it is time for the rest of the world, to show some real teeth at both of their leaderships.

I don’t think that we can discuss this scenario without defining first the win and lose conditions for each side. For example

THK vs. IAF? It depends. What is the objective for each air force? If THK role is to provide air superiority for naval routes all the way to Gaza, it will probably sustain heavy loses due to distance alone. Same goes if THK tries to bomb targets in Israel. (I’m leaving out involvement of Syria because in that case the whole scenario can escalate to full Middle East war).

On the other hand, if IAF has to do retaliatory strikes inside Turkey, then we are not talking about a walk in the park. The distance advantage goes to THK. I expect heavy IAF loses even if they manage to hit some targets due to superior EW suites.

So, it is all relevant. And going back to the trigger of this scenario. Turkish military escort for aid ships. Well, all depends of the location of an incident. An attack by IDF on a (NATO member) Turkish navy ship in international waters, would be a huge loss for Israel in both PR and strategic level. The same incident, 12 nm or less from Gaza, has different dynamics.

Like it or not, legal or not, there is a blockade. Any Turkish navy action inside Gazan waters would be a clear dispute of that blockade and it will probably end in Turkish loss in both PR and strategic level, at least in the West.

So, if US cannot pressure Turkey not sending escorts, my opinion is that that Turkey will escort them to 12 nm peacefully. Everyone on the aid ships will be arrested at 10 nm, while the Turkish navy is looking the other way at 13 nm.

http://macedonia-evidence.org/obama-letter.html

The EU has the force as well as the NATO. During the Cold War times none had a real intrest to kick Turkey or Greece out of the NATO and the USA was enough to bring both to their senses in short notice. No money = no war! All the shiny weapons are payed by credits and both countries are very vulnerable to finacial and economic sanctions. The EU can do that even without the USA and even against the political will of the USA. ~70% of the Turkish exports are with Europe and the ratio of tourists is similar and just a small reduction will ruin the credit ranking of a country over night. Europe may speak softly for good reasons, but it does carry a big stick by that. 😉

My friend, I don’t think that you can find a Greek that doesn’t want our budget defense reduced and our armed forces numbers reduced. But there is a little catch in your scenario that makes us keep spending so much on defense. Let me explain.

First, keep in mind that the main Greek position on solving our problems with Turkey is international law and courts, while Turkey’s position is be-literal negotiations between us.

Second, no war will start without a “legitimate” reason, like maybe a provocation. For the first days of the war, things will be very unclear as for who’s to blame. It took a year for EU to find out what really happened in Georgia.

Now think. It will take at least a few days for the tripwire to work and the EU might to enforce a truce. The problem is what happened in those days and what’s going to happen afterwards.

What happens after a truce? Bi-literal negotiations. Case closed for Turkey. They win.

Even worse. If our tripwire forces loose Thrace or a couple of islands during those couple of days, we are drugged into negotiations from a weak position. Negotiations are give and take. We must give something to take those islands back. What will you suggest we give?

What is keeping Turkey of taking advantage of this win-win scenario? Sufficient Greek armed forces that make another outcome possible. That they fail to take an inch of Greek ground and being drugged to negotiations while having their infrastructure badly damaged.

In our little police analogy, you are suggesting that I put a good alarm in my house. I just know that the thief is after my laptop. He has plenty of time to break in, set the alarm, steal it and escape before the police arrives. The Greek armed forces are a good solid door with a good lock.

Edit: that and what Aspis wrote. Till I find some time to read it. 🙂

“Greese” was a typo, sorry for that.
Why did Greece participate in the Euro in the first place, when it apperently only yields disadvantages? We (=Germany) don’t dial the Euro exchange ratio, we would prefer a 1to1 exchange ratio with the USD, too.

Anyways, Greece didn’t do its homework, suffering from bad government. That doesn’t mean I have any specific prejudices against Greek people, I know a few. But the budget policy of the federal government is a catastrophe.

From you official trade deficit you have to deduct the money that German tourists spend in Greece. Given the low trade (in total numbers), that should compensate a bit.

Anyways, bashing Greece these days is justified, which doesn’t mean I wouldn’t prefer to praise Greece for performing above average economically. We are all “Euro”, so the downfall of the one also affects the other. Do something about it!

I am concerned that when I see German economic growth and budget numbers (which are ugly), but still we seem best performing nation (of the legacy nations of the Euro zone, not considering some smaller countries with impressive economic and budget numbers, like Denmark for example).

Let me try and answer that from my (Greek) point of view. Just to keep Aspis in his Christmas mood :).

Why did we participated in the Euro? The government(s) and the banks/financial interests that control them, wanted the ride for the cheep rates. If you thing that spreads and cost of borrowing are high now for Greece, just take a look at the pre-euro rates of the good old drachma even in non crisis periods. Why did ordinary people approved? Because the hoped that they will end up getting the same value for their work, a German worker does. Why did I approved it? Because it was (and it is still now) a chance to get some sense into the madness called “Greek Economy”.

Greece didn’t do it’s homework, that is true. Picking the first google matches (they are not accurate but they are pretty close to the truth for this argument.) I found, I’ll give them to you for reference.

http://www.payscale.com/research/GR/Country=Greece/Salary/by_Employer_Type
http://www.payscale.com/research/IE/Country=Ireland/Salary/by_Employer_Type
http://www.payscale.com/research/DE/Country=Germany/Salary/by_Employer_Type

Take a look at the good old budget exploder called “Government” .
Average Greek payment for a civil worker is around 18000 euro annually.
Average Irish payment for a civil worker is around 38000 euro annually.
Average German payment for a civil worker is around 38000 euro annually.

On the other hand, the Greek economy made wonders with the cost of living. Come live in Greece and I can guarantee that you will spend the same ( or even more) money to get through the month. My cheapest leaf of bread costs 0.8 euro and a litre of milk costs 1 euro. How much do they cost in your local super market?

Now look at your papers crying for Greek decrease of salaries like they did in Ireland. Pay me 38K a year and I will make a 3.8k sacrifice for my country. Pay me 18K a year and if you take 1.8K from my salary I will lack basic necessities. Please don’t take the simplifications that papers/economists give as the TRUTH.

There is a war going on. The real war is between the Anglosaxon QE model, the modest liquididy easing German model and the Chinese production model. Read the telegraph and AEP. Every time he attacks Greece, he hits the euro (and the German model) as well. Every time Spiegel goes to his defense it is simply stupid.

As for the Greek problems…. The only real problem we have is organization. I would applaud a silent constant coordination.

edit:midnight typos

– If EU press had an ounce of brain in all this story, instead of spreading panic, they should be a little less aggressive. Because one of the scenarios is that the timing of the rating is a bit odd , since usually when a goverment changes and anounces measures, the evaluating houses wait. It would have been probably more logical to derate in summer or September. One possibility, is that some non-euro countries are doing a speculative attack on euro. Where as i said, it isn’t Greece the real danger, the danger is if Greece goes on default and some still spread “panic” or start selling bonds of some bigger EU country in not so healthy situation (look at Spain or Italy), the impact on euro will be felt. Because when the climate is bad, it doesn’t need to have a logic. It is the same as speculative attacks in british pound or DM before the euro.

You know, I’ve been wondering about that. With an euro priced at 1.5 US $ and rising, maybe the ECB found the perfect plan with us. They will announce something bad about Greece every couple of months and the will drive the ratio back to 1.47, like they did this time. Cheaper and more exports for Germany. And we are left with paying the spreads…