Point taken. Still, i can’t help thinking that a fixed probe like the Rafale’s is bad for RCS, specially frontal. It could be lower without the fixed probe IMHO.

Do we know the material that probe is made of? If it is non metal, then we don’t have RCS problems.

@ Arthuro

That’s another interesting question to put tomorrow. Or, if it sounds too specific to answer, you could try asking “can 2 Rafales triangulate an enemy aircraft and obtain firing solution for either MICA IR or EM, without using radar emissions or laser rangefinder?”

In order to triangulate, you need to synchronise your receivers. To do it with Link16, might be tricky since it is a low bandwidth link. On a single plane it is easier since you have the whole data bus to play with.

And what about triangulation with 1 TV and 1 mica sensor at the wing.
Edit: Nah, the phase difference would be irrelevant then. It is too hot in here and I can’t think right 🙂

The Typhoon has been the favourite for years. In Greece there is a tendency to oversimplify or overcomplicate everything in a conspiracy like model. .

a) I never ruled out Rafale. Conspiracy or not, there is still a choice.

1) I don’t believe that the ECB will issue Eurobonds, unless it sees an imminent danger for the euro.

b)Let us pray then and keep looking here.

2) The eurobonds wouldn’t be “greek-specific” nor they are “free” money. They are simply a way to borrow liquid money at lower interest rates then the greek bonds themselves. However, in the recent issue of greek bonds, there was no problem in selling the bonds. On the contrary, the request was x2 than the target.

Let us pray and keep watching b) and this and this and this.

If eurobonds automatically mean Typhoon, i guess we will soon see Typhoons with irish and portuguese colours too? Now that’s good news for EADS! “All the exports that you would like to have, but you were afraid to ask!” :p

c) I don’t recall any Irish or Portuguese aircraft needs.

4) Despite the fear and destruction that is customary in Greece from the media, in pre-electoral periods, the greek economy isn’t at the brink of collapse, nor its current borrowing rates are dramatic (there is much worse out there, both in EU countries out of the euro-zone) and outside EU. Let’s say that if the greek sovereign credit rating collapses to the point that is unable to borrow at acceptable rates, most likely we will have a global doomsday before that happens.

Please see:
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/2792/99247829.png

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116738-europe-in-fear-of-sovereign-bond-defaults-it-s-even-worse-for-emerging-markets

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/2/7/business/3207456&sec=business

I have to agree with that. Greece is not the worst case scenario. If Eurobonds are issued, it will be for some other member. I said, if we ever need them. If we manage to keep our budget, we are OK.

We would probably save more money, by simply freezing every new defence procurement if things were so desperate, rather than spending billions and wait for the eurobond, that could save us what… between 1-2% over our current rates?

It is not about saving. It is about spending. Spending on German hands (or French) that will keep their jobs and come for vacations in Greece, is the point.

The Typhoon has been favourite since PM Simitis era, who had made a public anouncement about it. Mixing in this the eurobonds, is imo, the usual greek way of complicating things. Why should we thank Germany with Typhoon and not by accepting immediately the 1st U214 at full price too?

I don’t care about the Typhoon. I care about HAF.

What should Ireland and Portugal buy from Germany?

See c).

And today our FM met Hillary. Next month the PM will meet Obama. If Obama appears more positive than Bush towards greek positions, then what? We will deny to buy some F16s , because ECB may issue eurobonds?

Please Fed, buy some of our bonds so I will not have to go to the ECB asking for help. Nice wish but I think that the Fed has bigger problems to think about.

P.S.: I repeat, that IMO, there won’t be any eurobonds in the short future and this is actually a good thing for us. It’s an occasion for the goverment to start cutting the money wasted in bureaucracy and inefficiency of the public sector. There is no real need for eurobonds. The wasted money in the pubblic sector, is x3 the amount we would gain from getting the ability to borrow liquid money at 1-2% lower than our current rate. It is only waiting for someone to collect it. And as usual, in Greece, the politicians work better, when there is no other way out, than to do what must be done.

b)

Edit: and something else. Spreads are the result of a successful auction. Eurobonds will be the result of failed auctions. Probably not Greek but somewhere in the Eurozone.

but we go off topic with this, I agree with the rest of your analysis.

Damn, i wish i knew this before making my long speech! :p
I thought i knew who the greek members were in the forum, apparently not! 🙂

You even tempted me to keep playing foreigner 😛
Anyway, it is good to explain our politics to people reading this thread, cause some times they just ignore things that we take for granted.

As for the rest of the analysis, I mostly agree with it. The only thing I want to add is something simple.

If the European Central Bank, starts issuing Eurobonds to finance Greek debt, then we must forget about buying anything not made in the Eurozone.

@Aspis, No, I’m not French, I’m Greek but I would like some French insight in what I’m talking about.

I remember reading somewhere that France wants to build a new naval base in Cyprus. Sorry, I don’t remember where, I maybe completely wrong. But if I’m right…

Dassault wants to sell Rafales.
France wants a naval base in Cyprus and sell Rafales. That base will need air support.
Greece wants a new aircraft plus the upgrade of the older Mirages to -5Mk2

So, we can have a package deal where:

Greece puts all the Mirages on sale.

Cyprus buys them and upgrades the older ones to -5Mk2. If 40+ planes are too much for Cyprus, you can find a buyer for some -5Mk2. Dassault has a nice profit from the upgrade.

France builds it’s base in Cyprus but doesn’t send any fighter aircrafts to support it. Instead, the newly formed Cyprus Air Force (CAF) is based in that same base. France pays some kind of rend (maybe the logistic support) and in return CAF provides air support for the French. If Turkey wants to bomb CAF on the ground, then it must bomb a French base.

Greece, has the money from the new fighter purchase, plus the money from the sale, plus any money stored for a Mirage upgrade. We are talking about around 80 aircraft. Dassault already gained from the Cyprus upgrade, so it gives all the things Greece wants (AESA, Iris-T, HMS, a better engine). Maybe Greece can be a full time partner in those parts.

Everybody is happy.

PS, To any Greek readers, no I’m not Antreas :). The matter has been discussed to the death in the Greek forums. I just want to get some French and Cypriot opinions in something like that.

@Aspis, thank you. That was the answer I was seeking.

If I remember right, France wants to build a naval base in Cyprus. So, you can put that new air force in that base. It can also provide air support for that base with the French paying some rent for it. After all, the planes are the same ones they use. You have an interesting scenario of Turkey having to attack France if they want to bomb the Cypriot air force on the ground. Sounds very European to me.

Theoretically, yes. Practically, unlikely. Cyprus is very small, their defence budget is very small (you can’t expect miracles from a population of about 750.000), they spend already much of it, only for maintaining their existing armaments. There is also the political part of the question. Even if accept that Cyprus is capable of buying and maintaining on her own expense the entire Mirage fleet, there is the political obstacle. Cyprus is trying to force Turkey into a solution, using Turkey’s EU accession procedure. Actually many countries that want Turkey in the EU, because of that, have suddenly remembered about the Cyprus issue, in the last years. If Cyprus was to acquire for the first time her own airforce, it would become in the hands of Turkey and her friends, yet another weapon, against Cyprus. They would use it, to present that Cyprus doesn’t want a peaceful solution. This is probably the reason, that Cyprus has practically stopped new purchases of any material worth mentioning in the last 6 years.

The issue of a Cypriot airforce has been debated for years in Greece. Some doubt that they can maintain more than 20 aircrafts on their own, others question even the wisdom of having few aircrafts so close to Turkey and in only 1 airfield (Cyprus has only 1 military airforce base, built in the 90s. Before that there was none), as that airfield can be bombarded very quickly by the Turks.

But bottom line is, today, more than ever, for political reasons, it is highly unlikely that Cyprus would be interested in an airfoce. They weren’t even interested in taking our MirageF1, which although not much, are better than nothing… The same applies for a “Cypriot navy”. Like with the airbase, they built a naval base, but mainly for the visit of greek ships. They don’t intend to make their own navy. They just have some coast guard vessels.

I don’t know, but I think that there is a flaw to your analysis. Countries buy weapons for self defence all over the world, but that doesn’t mean that they seek war. Greece has a lot of unresolved issues with Turkey and still arms itself to the teeth. Does that mean that Greece wants war with Turkey?

Greece says that it will go to war with Turkey if the later attacks Cyprus. So, it is completely fine for a 10M country to sustain a 300 plane air force, to defend a friend, but it is not viable for that 1M friend to keep a 30 plane air force?

I forgot something else. Selling the Dash-5, which are brand new, is something that HAF isn’t fond of the idea. Also, selling the M2000 EGM/BGM, is something that would be possibly difficult. We tried to sell the MirageF1, we couldn’t find a buyer. And the M2000EGM/BGM, have now more than 15 years of service with many flight hours in interception missions over the sea and Super530D/Magic/AIM39 as their main weapons. For an airforce with no support structure for it, it’s not convenient economically to buy that, instead of cheap F16s. Thinking about it, France herself, didn’t want to include them in the Rafale exchange deal…

While in our case, the support infrastructure is existent for years, there is the possibility to upgrade them or, in case we don’t they can still act as anti-ship squadron with secondary A2A role.

One good solution could be Cyprus. It could buy the whole Mirage fleet and upgrade the old ones. The money from those planes combined with the funds for the new purchase, should be enough for 60-80 new Rafales for HAF. The whole packet will be attractive to Dassault due to its size.