LindermyerI dont think article 5 CAN be invoked, its not an attack on main UK,
but any weapons from UK allies are compromised, the only sensible thing to do is buy Chinese FC-1/JF-17
No it cant be invoked because a) there are limits of lat and long and the Falklands lies out side these, also the treaty was drawn up in such a way as to avoid dragging the US into colonial wars.
LindermyerGazelle is really easy to maintain, and also very silent for a helicopter, making it very useful for night time special forces operations.
Unfortunately it is getting old and needs to be replaced at some point.
Nic
I know its a claim that its quieter thanks to the Fenestron, and perhaps true at a distance but up close I have always considered it to be horrifically loud. Its an awful piercing shriek from the gazelle whereas the lynx was a more throaty rumble.
Mind you I hate high pitched noises so perhaps it seems worse than it is.
I think a few of the ex UK ones have found their way into private hands.
I much prefer the gazelle to the Squirrel (Astar / twinstar to the colonials) though.
LindermyerThe UK developed the Lynx to into an AH machine and the gazelle was just used as a scout / observation and trainer/ comms aircraft. So the UK probably had no requirement to develop the gazelle.
Also Whilst France used their Gazelles as attack machines the UK discovered (or confirmed) in 1982 that the gazelle lacked the robustness for this task.
Lindermyerpeople said “no rafales” as france wouldn’t sell them…
but rafales were on offer for Brasil with the possibility to build them locally and sell them to all latin american market (which would include Argentina, obviously)
France will reserve the right to refuse sales to certain countries, that may or may not include Argentina. Likewise in the event of a conflict france may stop supporting Argentine Rafales. As Argentina its something id have to ponder
now, about those british subs that, in case of invasion, would block anything coming out of Argentina.. you’re on the other side of the planet, have no supply line to speak of, no port to shelter in, and your subs would go around there with impunity? chances are that the first time one of them fires on a ship, all anti-subs assets would go after it and most certainly sink it (you don’t hide a couple of hundreds of tons of metal that easily)
Your right it would be impossible to operate an SSN unsupported in the south Atlantic and yes the first time it fired it would be hunted down and destroyed. This is why in 1982 the UK left its SSNs and SSKs behind…Oh Wait*
add some sufficiently long range aircraft with sufficient provision of antishipping missiles (rafales with exocets, Su-30 with Kh-31 for example) and what do you have? a remote place where no ship would be able to come even close.in fact, the only thing the brits could do (providing Argentina builds sufficient projection force to take the islands and patrol the seas around it) would be a nuclear strike, which, on another hand, may be “a bit complicated” to manage after it happened…
I agree that if Argentina Builds up sufficient Assets they can Hold the Islands, however they are unlikely to be able to take the islands
* Hint ARA General Belgrano**
** Not wishing to be Jingoistic or start an argument but in light of claims about SSNs I think its relevant.
To forestall any Comments Yes it was outside the exclusion Zone, no it was not illegal only the Argentine Government and some labour MPs have ever claimed otherwise, note even the ships captain accepts it was justified.
LindermyerOk, here is a post with the right question-marks:
On the stray merchant ships, is every local informed on every ship expected to arrive at falklands, and the schedule ?
are they all also reminded to report immediately in case a merchant ship show up unscheduled ?
if so, i hope they have a better memory than me.Probably not but merchant ships are a rare occurrence so will attract comment, The garrison in all probability has a schedule, any unscheduled ship will arouse suspicion.
You are also not taking into account the presence of Radar systems that will alert everyone to the existence of your ship.Why would i walk a circuitous route ?
An old Russian practice state that always push the fastest way possible,
if that means walking around a blockade or go through it dont matter, only time matter.It wont be a road block simply an observation post that will defiantly report you and may also engage you. Either way the garrison is now alert and a couple of hundred well trained, experienced and motivated troops (plus a few hundred RAF types who are going to be extremely annoyed and so dangerous if its after 1600 (1300 Fridays) or the weekend are now waiting for you.
Commandos / SF need to hit hard hit fast and bug out before the enemy reacts, going toe to toe with an alert battle group will hurt..A helo or ship will only be sent if someone make an alarm loud enough to cause an action,
the helo should be an easy target for any stinger, but in this case it will have to be decided to abort or push ahead.Suspicious or not, i know i wouldnt begin conspiracy theories if i saw a merchant ship near a harbor.
A helo or ship will go to investigate any strange vessel near the Islands, Clyde or a FI Fisheries vessel may well detect your ship antway.
Totally agree it hinges on a stroke of luck, but collecting floating targets over a lengthy time
is by far worse.On the unloading, i’m thinking of a modified ship, preferably i would find something suitable to build a ramp on,
and drive off the ship, -vehicles has been modified before to make it 50 meters, air intake high, exhaust high,
some floaters on the sides if need be.The UK will defiantly notice this (if they don’t heads should roll (literally), in addition the loading of lots of fit men and vehicles will in all probability attract a note explaining it doesn’t want to be with 100 miles of the islands. Expect constant surveillance.
Yes, i have no intention of using that air base that day, only conquer it.
If things goes the argentine way, it will be a stroll, if it goes the UK way, its 1000+ PoW & 2 lost old freighters.
ed: to clarify, i do think the odds are for UK, but not nearly as bad as it will be if argentina takes its time to prepare
a colossus of Large Slow Targets, aka LST
regards
LindermyerRe US and Vietnam
In effect the US had won in Vietnam by 1968 however the disastrous for the NVA Tet offensive was somewhat unexpectedly, a major success politically. Biased, incomplete and poor reporting sent shock waves through the US and boosted opposition to the war, from that point the US was trying to extract itself and North Vietnam just had to survive a major boost to a country on the verge of defeat.
Re Afghanistan
Militarily the NATO forces have been successful, The Taliban pretty much ceased to exist and its widely reported most now aren’t Afghani.
That said Im not sure there is a clear overall strategy and war aim and that is a political problem.
As for talking to the Taliban well the solution is always political so to get peace you need to have everyone talking.
I get the Idea we are loosing in Afghanistan because people don’t know what we are trying to achieve, that and every casualty or shot or bomb Is portrayed by the media as a set back.
Hint to the media the enemy shooting back is not a failure of policy or strategy or the sign of a failed attack its pretty normal.
LindermyerCome off it! Any local fisherman will probably be in the FIDF, & even if he isn’t, if he sees you first you’ll be reported immediately. Stray merchant ships just don’t happen round there. It isn’t the Baltic coast. You’d set alarm bells ringing in the head of any & every local who sees you.
You’re assuming a pretty direct route, over firm ground. IT ISN’T LIKE THAT. You have to walk a circuitous route through boggy country, around lakes. That’s hours of walking for the fittest man.
There is exactly one stretch of asphalt, & it is the road used by the military, as well as the local civilian population.
Ive tried to explain that several times, and Ive come to the conclusion that either
A) because Obligatory isn’t English he is having trouble understanding what I say – in which case I must try harder
B) Its a WAH and I just bit.
C) Hes now Trolling.
I regularly hike in the mountains and to me its a toss up which hinders you more boggy terrain or 12″ snow (sometimes Sh1t happens even in August). Trying to do it at night carrying a heavy load without being seen or heard is something I will leave to “Them”.
LindermyerOFF TOPIC
Pearl Harbour is bad example – they assumed the aircraft were theirs and there are conspiracy theories the Americans let them through.
Pearl Harbour is a catalogue of errors and post facto cover ups. The US Admiral would not pass on intelligence to the Army General (hence nice neat rows of fighters), they completely disregarded the location of the Japanese fleet
para phrasing a recorded conversation between US Admiral and his staff
“So where is the Japanese fleet”
” Not sure we lost them in some area XXX”
“So I could expect them to round the Head (harbour mouth at pearl) in a few days then”
” Well we hope to detect them before then”
A US Merchant ship detected Japanese comms and reported this to the Navy
A message instructing the Japanese Emabassy to destroy its code books was intercepted ( There is only 1 reason to do this).
The Winds message was intercepted but fatally delayed.
The warning to pearl was sent via despatch rider because the radio was down.
The fleet was held at minimum status to appease families.
The navy Admiral refused to pass on vital intelligence to his army counterpart (I know I already said this but seriously..)
The intelligence services were in competition not cooperating.
J E Hoover Disregarded what amounted to a target list courtesy of the UK because he disliked the source, a German spy.
The Radar station at pearl was only manned part time.
and that’s before the fatal “well don’t worry about it” statement.
On Topic
To achieve Obligatory’s suggestion (including strolling down the road) Not only would the garrison have to be asleep* but British Intelligence would have to be so inept that Pearl Harbour would look like the very model of efficiency.
*In this case the garrison commander would probably be best off emigrating to Argentina, Admirals have been shot for less.
Side note
British intelligence had detected preparations in 1982 unfortunately the Intelligence services answered to the foreign office, it was they that didn’t accept the risk of invasion as being credible. Its worth noting that since 1982 the intelligence community has its own seat alongside the foreign office, funny that.
Regards
Lindermyer1] No, i’m not trying to avoid the odd fisherman out on a night-hunt at this point, i’m making speed, get outa my way,
it aint gonna take me an hour.It is 10 miles your carrying equipment and its rough terrain . Note The official IAAF 1/2 Marathon (13miles) world record for men is 58:23 minutes that’s travelling light on good roads
Again you cannot just march up the road It isn’t about avoiding the odd fisherman.
The British Army Does not just sit in Barracks it is far more active on the Falklands. The surrounding area is patrolled there are various ground surveillance/detection and warning systems around MPA.2] Yep, gotta be careful with those blisters …
See above its not about Blisters there are real issues moving through difficult terrain at nigh and carrying heavy equipment. 3]I know a 70-year ole fart that can walk at normal pace with 30 a kg backpack,
[COLOR=”#0000CD”]Good for him no make it nearer 60 Kilos cross country in the dark It will slow him down[/COLOR]They will need to carry a lot more than 30 kilos of kit in order to secure MPA
[That the most frequent argument against a covert attack is the blisters the lads might suffer from a 10 km walk
may be something i can learn from, some day.]10 miles is not 10K, and you seem to be belittling the argument of difficult terrain and avoiding surveillance with a specious argument about blisters.
4] Its highly likely that an early hour fisherman will note a couple of merchant ships, and will likely tell wifey at breakfast,
considering the general lack of events that appear to be the daily life.That’s also a risk, however by far the greater risk is that the ship will be detected by an alert Garrison long before it reaches the Falklands
Once more for emphasis you cannot simply walk up to MPA the garrison is to active for that Since when are power plants classified as military targets ?
sounds like you are suggesting terror bombing.
Power Plants Communications centres and Infrastructure are all viable targets (which is why you can civilian casualties are inevitable.
Go look up both Gulf Wars and the US air force targets. However the UK probably wont strike mainland Argentina for political reasons (same as last time).
Lindermyer1] No, i’m not trying to avoid the odd fisherman out on a night-hunt at this point, i’m making speed, get outa my way,
it aint gonna take me an hour.It is 10 miles your carrying equipment and its rough terrain . Note The official IAAF 1/2 Marathon (13miles) world record for men is 58:23 minutes that’s travelling light on good roads
Again you cannot just march up the road It isn’t about avoiding the odd fisherman.
The British Army Does not just sit in Barracks it is far more active on the Falklands. The surrounding area is patrolled there are various ground surveillance/detection and warning systems around MPA.2] Yep, gotta be careful with those blisters …
See above its not about Blisters there are real issues moving through difficult terrain at nigh and carrying heavy equipment. 3]I know a 70-year ole fart that can walk at normal pace with 30 a kg backpack,
[COLOR=”#0000CD”]Good for him no make it nearer 60 Kilos cross country in the dark It will slow him down[/COLOR]They will need to carry a lot more than 30 kilos of kit in order to secure MPA
[That the most frequent argument against a covert attack is the blisters the lads might suffer from a 10 km walk
may be something i can learn from, some day.]10 miles is not 10K, and you seem to be belittling the argument of difficult terrain and avoiding surveillance with a specious argument about blisters.
4] Its highly likely that an early hour fisherman will note a couple of merchant ships, and will likely tell wifey at breakfast,
considering the general lack of events that appear to be the daily life.That’s also a risk, however by far the greater risk is that the ship will be detected by an alert Garrison long before it reaches the Falklands
Once more for emphasis you cannot simply walk up to MPA the garrison is to active for that Since when are power plants classified as military targets ?
sounds like you are suggesting terror bombing.
Power Plants Communications centres and Infrastructure are all viable targets (which is why you can civilian casualties are inevitable.
Go look up both Gulf Wars and the US air force targets. However the UK probably wont strike mainland Argentina for political reasons (same as last time).
LindermyerI’ve seen worse terrain when hunting, to top it off i also had to sneak as to not alarm game.
I estimate a 40 min walk, give or take 10 min depending how much of the walk is un-asphalted.
It is also a possibility to load the ships with vehicles, with big wheels and floating pontoons to make it ashore,
i would walk around looking at ships to see what can be improvised on what ships suitable.
The force would need to be more than 1000 men.
Yes, it need to be a covert operation from the get-go, the biggest reason against a build-up,
greater than the cost.
Its about 10 miles fro Mare Harbour to RAF Mount pleasant. By road on good terrain that’s about 2/3 hours.
Troops / Commandos etc are going to be laden down with equipment – so you can probably double that time.
You cannot use the road because you are trying to avoid the British Army at this point and the ground is a just a bog except odd clumps of Grass and rocks which threaten your ankles.
Cross country in mountainous terrain (on a designated trail) carrying a heavy load, it isnt that unreasonable for that distance to take a day. Add bogland which slows you down further and the need to stay covert your looking at 2 or 3 days (ok nights).
Question assuming you have set sail without raising the alarm, how do you intend to offload vehicles and equipment.
Its highly likely that your ship will be detected 30 – 40 miles out, this gives the garrison 1-2 hours to prepare a response. A reinforced section 2 Gimpys and a Javelin will ruin your whole day.
Regards
LindermyerI am familiar with the hardship of walking 8 km in partly un-asphalted terrain, i did it myself in my youth.
(guessing on a hunch here that there is a road going from mare harbor directly to the airport)
If that is still too much to ask from young commandos of today,
those merchant ships can be used as platforms for grenade launchers, and also have transport helos for troops
that complain about walking too much, as well as carry portable grenade launchers etc.
Its not just unasphalted its really really ****ty terrain to walk over , its also barren and closely observed. A small force is going to be overwhelmed rapidly. Assembling a large force will be noticed.
Everybody makes the same mistake in thinking everything Argentina does will be in a vacuum.
Start loading Helos and lots of able bodied men onto those merchant ships and the UK will be more than a little suspicious.
Regards
LindermyerTo Take and hold the Falklands, rather than just harass them will require high end assets and amphibious shipping*.
To my mind Cheap LPH/LHD types and big investment in MPA and ASW in order to ensure supplies aren’t interdicted.
Navy
LPD,s Akin to the Bays / enforcers. Argentina could probably manage without an Albion equivalent as the Falklands are close enough to home for C2.
The ASW fleet wont need particularly long legs but will probably need to be 3K ton or more to operate Helos in the South Atlantic 8- 12 of.
SSK 4-8 to interdict / patrol around the islands.
AD The fleet will (mostly) be within land based air so a couple of AD ships at most if not relying on a local system on the ASW fleet
AIR
Increase in both fixed and rotary wing transport fleet
Introduction of a credible modern fighter, Rafale perhaps or SU27 type of thing.
Land
Probably nothing perhaps improve AD no requirement for armour.
Training, Training and Taining.
However unless the UK is either exceedingly stupid and or negligent purchasing this equipment will defiantly get the threat board turning red and I expect the UK to respond accordingly.
Off Topic its sad really in the 90s the war was pretty much behind the UK and Argentina both nations were working / training together. Sadly in the last 5 years the public** situation has deteriorated badly. I hold the current Argentine government and Ms K in particular responsible as they are using the islands to divert attention from their economic mismanagement ***.
*In my opinion.
** British and Argentine forces are working together on Cyprus.
***Spain and Gib leap to my lips at this point for some reason.
Regards
LindermyerHe was a clearance Diver.
Bloke has a whole sack of King Edwards on his shoulder with the MOD and European Defence Industry.
If it does it nicely balance the morris pipers on the other side
Lindermyerhave to be Louis 2nd
We had a Louis 1 (for about 2 months) some time around the magna carta
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