The photo was taken in SimonsTown, not Cape Town, so that is the museum sub over there…

http://tourism-cape-town-western-cape.blaauwberg.net/busslistings.php?id=1817&friendlyName=-Submarine%20Museum%20Simon%92s%20Town

Does anyone know which Daphne-class sub is that in the lower-right? Was this pic taken in Lagos?

My article on the KC-390 rollout yesterday at Flightglobal, enjoy!

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-how-embraer-attracted-a-global-audience-to-the-kc-390-405083/

Hammer

I was discussing this very same program with a friend that believes that this is in fact a real production program, not just a technology demontrator aircraft. My argument is that if this was “for real” the Japanese would never line up to buy the foreign designed (and built) F-35… At least Mitsubishi woild be screaming all over the Japanese press about it… What do you think, is my reasoning solid?

Coments?

I think you guys seem to be neglecting a significant aspect that may limit the C-2s export potential… RISK!

a) Kawasaki has zero experience in supporting military aircraft to foreign clients….

b) The Japanese military has zero experience supporting foreign sold Japanese built aircraft…

c) Indigenously designed aircraft production runs in Japan are minimal… Small runs usually mean absurd production costs, low spares stocks and very high spares costs… Just remember hou operating costs surge when the number of flying airframes starts shrinking… Same thing applies here.

d) The assembly line workers only get to really know how to asssseble a new model after at least a dozen are actually manufactured… So the fist units are usually plagued with problems…

e) The unusual number of prototype construction mishaps (remenber the need to almost completely disassemble one the prototypes just to replace non-reinforced rivets?) in the C-2 program really does not speak well to guarantee the confidence of its prospective clients…

f) The A400M assembly line is running into a very cloudy production perspective. Inflated initial orders made to ensure a better share of the production for some of the partner countries is being proven to be unafordable for those Air Forces, so (at least) Germany and Spain have already announced that they´ll be trying to SELL to other air forces a significant number of their brand new A400M transports even before they are built. Naturally this means that they will compeat with brand new A400M ordered from Airbus Military causing ecessive supply in a delicate demand situation. The show room price of the A400M is already very steep mayby forcing Germany and Spain to accept taking some loss in the resale. One does not have to be an economist to see this is tragedy in the making… Obvious ly falling prioces on the A400M is bound to eventually affect (or even doom) its Japanese direct competitor´s export window.

Embraer by aiming at a smaller niche may be more successful by just going after the obsolete C-130 replacement market. Embraer post sale support has been tested and approved in the case of Tucanos, Super Tucanos and thousands of civilian aircraft flying in every imaginable place around the world…. I´d bet my chips without flinching on Embraer over Kawasaki any day…

Coments?

Hammer

Felipe Salles, it is not polite at all to try to guess what other person thinks. You are putting a label on me. Only when I show here some information about Gripen NG.

Excuse me again rcolistete, I´ve never meant to be neither demeaning nor dismissive of your ideas.

Since Brazilian FX-1 to FX-2, I’ve supported the following air fighters : Mirage 2000-5 Mk2, Su-30/35, Gripen NG, Su-35BM, Rafale. I am a fan of F-15, I would support it if it was included in FX-2.

I’ve many reasons to prefer Su-35BM or Rafale (or Eurofighter) in FX-2, over Gripen NG.

I understand that but 8in the end your own individual “predilections” (the same way as mine!) mean absolutely nothing to this acquistion program. 🙁

Gripen NG choice in 18/12/2013 is not a problem at all. But the facts afterwards are :
– the bad marketing of Saab in Brazil, with many general and specialized press in Brazil filtering information about Gripen NG and publishing information which conflicts with what is shown in Sweden and Switzerland, is against the interests of Brazilian people;

The way I see it discreopancies in the public sata between these countries are irrelevant, what really counts as a “fraud” would be discrepancies between what was offered oin the formal proposals to whar Saab was able to supply in the end. I have no idea what was offered on the proposals (like you, by the way!) so I have no means to determine if there was any conflict of this nature in the Brazilian F-X2 program. (I imagine you also have no concrete basis on which to claim that these so called “inconsitencies” would really damage the Brazilian taxpayers best interest…

– Brazilian Air Force officials saying that :
a) Gripen NG will be a Brazilian air fighter;

Let´s try to attack this declaration first through its exact opposite, I think it may work better: “Any fighter plane bought off the shelf from a foreign industry is NOT a Brazilian Fighter!” We also can infer that any fighter aircraft designed and built by Embraer with no significant foreign Industry collaboration (in structure, sensors, avionics, weapons and other major on board systems) is a legitimate “Brazilian Fighter plane”) Beyond these two extremes any variation will be partially a “Brazilian Fighter” in terms…

But let´s not forget the importance of keeping in touch with reality, Brazil has no effective and productive aeroengine industry, most of our avionics industry ended up being swallowed by Israeli Elbit in order just to keep it alive during the severe funding draught of the late 80´s and 90´s… Our Missile industry is still small and fragmented between Avibras and Mectron which separately do not constitute the basis for a modern independent and self sufficient industry…

With all this in mind, probably the FAB objective is that the Gripen may turn out to “be much more Brazilian then any predecessor model and as much ‘Brazilian’ as our industry can accomodate it´s new technologies”…

Again we go to the key issues, the differences between what Saab OFFERED and what will be part of the FINAL CONTRACT signed with the Brazilian Air Force. It is important to understand that unlike previous contracts Embraer has NOT been part of the core F-X2 evaluation program so its own role in this contract is stilll under evaluation. SAAB was approached early in the F-X2 program by a number of smaller Brazilian aero engineering and component/structure manufacturers. Their intention was to set a niche for them in this important program. Together with the São Bernado do Campo (an important industrial city in the Greater São Paulo Area) these companies convinced SAAB to propose a new Aero Structures plant that would initially work on the Gripen program and further down the road cooperate with Embraer (and other international aerospace manufaturers as well later on) doing a business that is just not attractive to Embraer now as it was 20-30 years ago. This offer attracted the Brazilian Government who is increasingly concerned with Embraer outsoursing aerostructures to foreign partners a process that reduces the Brazilian content of Embraer products significantly. Although this is part of SAAB´s proposal they have no means to force the FAB and/or the Brazilian government to accept that arrangement allowing for the creation of this new company. So this is just one of the many open items being discussed right now between SAAB and the Brazilian Air Force until they eventually sit down to sign this contract in the end of 2014 or the beginning of 2015. This is that crucial moment where all the several options that were offered in the SAAB proposal are reanalized and are chosen whether they will be kept or abandoned in the definitive contract.

A concrete early development of this approach is the fact that one of these companies Akaer was selected by Saab to do the detailed engineering design of the now called Gripen E. all their work was done independently of the fact that Brazil had not yet commited to the Gripen at the time, so her we have a clear sign that the Gripen E in its gestation period is already much more “Brazilian” than the C model ever imagined to be.

Concluding: there are a great many ways to determine the “Brazilianity” of the Gripen NG according to the terms of the end contract, we will only know what this percentage becomes after the signing of the final contract.

b) Brazil will be the owner of 100% of Gripen NG IP;

This is the type of thing that is right now being decided upon. Remember it was the Rafale campaign that first include this “total transfer of technology” hyperbole years ago. Then both its competitors (clearly knowing it would be impossible to achieve these levels of TOT woithout ans aburd cost hike just went along with the same story in order not to be seen as a worse deal). But being the Gripen E still a “Work in Progress” it is thus most probable that ToT programs in it would be much simpler to develop here in Brasil.

c) Brazil will manufacture 40% of Gripen NG, even if the engine, radar, IRST, EW, etc will be imported;

Final Brazilian industrial slice is directly dependent on what Embraer and the new aerostructure company´s individual slices will shape up to be lik.Thes slices are normally mesured in in Engineering man-hours not on specific individual subassemblies. If the Swiss industry negociated a slicxe of X man hours it could get a tail cone or a pilon contract as an offset BUT if the Swiss authorities are unable to sign the contract these very same components may be back on the table to be manufactured by somebody else, Brazilian, Swedish or else, in the end…

d) Gripen NG range is the same of Rafale and Super Hornet;

This is one of the multiple complex parameters. Does SAAB really now EXACTLY Rafale´s and Eurofighter´s perfomance stats? Hardly, they have a ballpark assessment but no more than this. Beyond that one can play with the component numbers and come back with a specific range/flight profile/weapons mix/in flight refueling, etc. where the the comparison between correct Gripen E specs would surpass its oponents products. As we at home have no access to even moderately precise numbers it is not for us to run and get anywhere half decent with these these simulations

e) GE F414G engine is “a commodity” and only a “mechanical part” (well, forget that there are embedded computers and software running on them) of Gripen NG, so there is no need to receive ToT (Transfer of Technology) in hardware and software (FADEC) about GE F414G, the ToT will be implemented by means of depot level with spare engines;

As I mantioned before we have no Brazilian company today to act as recipient of this engine toT under this logic it really become a moot point. Not asking ToT from places you know you have absolutely no chance to process is a fool´s errand. But I think using the EuroJet 200 from the Typhoon instead of the General Electric F414 engine from the US.

– Saab saying that :
f) Gripen costs < US$ 4k/hour to operate, while the Swiss report shows approx. US$ 6k/hour only with fuel;
g) Gripen NG carries more weapons than Rafale;
h) the rear fuselage of Gripen NG will be developed, built and assembled in Brazil… but the same promise is made for Switzerland.

So the main problem is misinformation from Saab and Brazilian Air Force. Items (a), (b), (e), (f) and (h) wouldn’t be true despite any choice of air fighter in FX-2.

I´ve touched upon all these items in my answers above.

The 3 air fighters received different grades in more than one thousand items, so the result was not “equal” for Gripen NG, Rafale and Super Hornet, but all of them were satisfactory to the Brazilian Air Force requirements. Im my opinion, Brazil has the right to choose any air fighter : Gripen NG, F-15, Su-35BM, Rafale, J-10, etc.

Felipe Salles, you are very worried with me. I will not be tired of being Brazilian citizen at all, be warned, despite your and other opinions. I make criticism about many subjects of Brazilian Army (Leopard 1A5 instead of 2A4/6), Brazilian Navy (use 4 diferent types of aircraft in A-12 São Paulo aicraft carrier) and Brazilian Air Force (no jets in Northeast, only 6 jets in Amazon area, etc).

In your opinion what is the specific perceived threat coming from the Northwest quadrant, likewise what is the threat coming from the northeast? to me the answer to both these questions is NONE! You well know that the lion´s share of Brazilian population and key defence and industrial regions is imn the country´s southeast region the other regions hardly have any real relevant targets themselves. This in itself legitimizes the troop and means concentration in the Southeast.

Felipe Salles, try to debate the subject here, Gripen NG. For example, try to comment the issues :
– does it have 5 or 6 tonnes of external load capacity ?
– do you agree with items (a)-(h) above ?

To me these numbers are absolutely irrelevant in the end. The immediate use of aerial refueling resolves them completely…

Yes, it is indeed an attack on me. And your supposed arguments are not facts at all.

How can the Brazilian Amazon region be defended by a light air fighter (how Saab calls Gripen NG), even with quantities of 100-200 ? How a Gripen NG can have supersonic (> Mach 1.4) range with 6-8 air-to-air missiles enough to intercept targets some to many hundreds of km from the Brazilian air bases ?

The Brazilian Amazon is defended initially by its own geopolitical irrelevance and its inate lack of critical attackable targets.

How can Brazil be a large area country and be the only one using light air fighter to defend its air space of 13 million km^2 ? Why USA, Russia, India, China, etc, have medium and/or large air fighters ? Just to spend more ? Or they are simply needed ?

All of the countries you mention have MUCH MUCH complicated geopolitical neighborhoods than we have ever had here in Brasil. Who has told you that our Government has any clear goal that pushes it towards building up the Brazilian armed forces in the level of these four countries you nentioned above?

Felipe Salles, I also know you very well. I will not post here your personnal and profissional interests about the defense subject, as a matter of respect.

By the way, I don’t earn anything from defense companies, defense press, etc.

That makes two of us, I have no advertisemnent income from any of these companies in my online magazine.

Best regards!

Felipe

I´ve known rcolistete for a number of years now and he has been a strong Rafale supporter in Brazil since the very start of the F-X2 program. His clear indignation at the selection of the Gripen NG over here has a lot to do with his own particular understanding of the “minimum standard fighter” that Brazil would need to have to have an Air Force proportional to our 6th , 7th or 8th GDP ranking in the world. To him the Gripen NG is just “not good enough” to achieve his preferred level of military/geopolitical national upgrade.

FAB brass and engineers yhave probed every one of the over 20000 pages of the F-X2 report and they (having read all the three proposals and all the comparative studies found that for the required mission all three finalist aircraft were totally satisfactory. This being equal there is no reason why the cosen plane would not be the cheapest one, thus the Gripen NG being selected.

Now that the decision is done he sticks to minute details trying to see find proof of the FAB´s blatant “error”. Instead what he forgets to notice is that there is no interest whatsoever from the Brazilian Air Force Generals to make public the sort of detailed performance specifications that he craves to locate somewhere on the internet. The fact is HE WILL NOT FIND THIS INFO anywhere. This because FAB´s nature is just too secretive of this tipe of detail, they don´t want rcolistete or anybody else claiming to anyone that will listen to him that they made a bad decision. So one day rcolistete will eventualy tire and have to drop his empty nitpicking because the Gripen NG is here to stay and there is nothing he can say to prevent this.

By no means this is an attack on you rcolistete, it is just the facts. I agree that 36 is a puny total number but if the Brazilian Air Force ends up with 200-odd Gripen E/Fs, all manufactured in Brasil, will you feel that we have the adequate fighter fleet?

Regards,

Hammer

Raytheon Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile will fight off MBDA’s Sea Ceptor for the Brazilian next generation corvette program (CV3). Other contenders Umkhonto, Barak and Mica VL have been dropped.

More details here:

http://www.alide.com.br/joomla/component/content/article/75-extra/4628-umkhonto-barak-e-micavl-fora-da-futura-corveta-da-mb

(in Portuguese, sorry!) 😉

Regards,

Hammer