Some other things to consider on this issue:

As current aircraft get more complex they naturally grow in cost when compared to their previous generation siblings. Larger unit costs naturally mean smaller production runs, wich in turn mean even higher unit costs… A 100% stealth fighter fleet lacks up the unit costs and assumes that the enemy fighters and air defense sistems will for a long time be incapable of bridging the technological gap. If the US brass happens to be wrong on this assumption, it really may mean that the next generation fighters despite being much more expensive might be as vulnerable as the last one, that could carry more weapons farther at a competitive cost then the new ones.

But let’s not forget some other aggravating issues, the recent US dollar meltdown against major world currencies (30% against the euro in one year!). Aerospace cost structures are globally sourced even isf the contractors are located within the USA. This might generate further upwards cost hikes to preserve the contract margins from this remarkable currency devaluation. Many metals and other commodities are soon to be quoted in Euros instead of the US dollar because of this phenomenon.

On the other side the increased usage ratio due to the simultaneous conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan ought to significantly reduce the lifespan of the current fleets requiring major fleet replacement sooner than otherwise imagined.

On the funding side the operational expenses grow much more significantly on wartime than when in peace time so for this reason the money available for new aircraft/system procurement tends to shrink considerably.

You put all these issues together and it is easy to figure out that the future of the USAF may in the end come to depend on newer, more advanced versions of the very same conventional aircraft it now operates, the F-16 and F-15.

Comments?

Hammer

May I join the fray? 😉

Hi Gents,

first of all I’ve read the great argument elaborated by you above on the pros and cons of C-17 and the A400. But I have to wonder if it really merits a discussion, since the C-17 production line is due to be closed soon if the USAF doesn’t quickly find more money to order new aircraft… Euro, Australian, Canadian and UK mini orders are just not enough to keep the line open for long… If the line closes, then the debate must so migrate to an academic “A400s or A400” choice, am I right here?

Also I wonder what, if any, impact on the future military transport fleets you think the availability of Embraer’s new C-390 aircraft might have?

Theoretically it is a modernized twin-jet powered C-130 aircraft. Performance-wise (with the exception of speed, of course) there is to have very little difference from the C-130 aircraft… Is this plane a potential “hit” or a “dud”, does it fit WITH the A400 fleet or does it conflict with the A400?

Recent Brazilian news reports have pinpointed Chile South Africa and Turkey as possible clients for the C-390, curiously all are A400 anounced clients too.

Regards,

Hammer

I see it similar. By cold logic such exports will weaken the economy of the receivers. When we export NC-maschines we will rise the economy of the buyer and strengthen a contender by that. It makes more sense to export fighters to China, India or Brasil f.e. than NC-maschines to built consumer goods

But my friends, please don’t think we are putting off buying numericaly controled machines and industrial robots… We are purchasing them in droves. The Brazilian Defense Ministry’s idea is to quickly recompose the national defense products industry so we can claim at least a fraction of the global multi-billion dollar a year industry. We have learned from Americans, Europeans and Russians, we sure want the hard cash, but most of all, we want to cement new international relations in a way that selling tons of soybeans, pork and iron ore just can’t acheive.

Best Regards,

Hammer

But it should be. What´s good for USA is good for all latin america.

Please note that JungleBoy is being sarchastic in his post, no large South American Country seriously thinks that harbouring US military bases in it’s territory is a good deal in the long term. The implied loss of sovereignty is the real risk in this case, also the local populace might see the Gringo presence as a sign of govenmental weakness, and that WILL CERTAINLY be used against the government on the next election… The only countries currently considering US bases are the “little guys”: Paraguay, Suriname and Guyana…

Regards,

Hammer

Can anyone please tell me why Brazil – or any other S. American nation – needs state of the art interceptors?

Uruguay about to invade, is it..? Or, maybe they make good spray planes for use in anti-malarial programmes..?

Damn, silly me, just twigged… they’ll use the afterburners to ready-dry-roast all those coffee beans….

Hi Jolanta,

I’m Brazilian, so forgive if I may sound rather “biased” to some of you… 😉

Having an Airforce is quite different from having a “modern airforce”. New fighters bring new technologuies and new capabilities that in turn require the adoption of newer doctrines and a revamped updated training sillabus for pilots and mechanics. So AT LEAST we need new fighters in order to get in touch with these new realities so we can prepare the whole personnel so they can be upgraded if necessary in a short time. In the 1940s we joined the Allies but our air force still employed 1930s era tatics. A crash course was needed to prepare our people to fly then cutting edge P-47s in combat in the Italian theater.

Also a significant number of our fighter force comes from the seventies, and as happens to every machine there is a time when they cease to work and need to be replaced. There is simply no way arround it, also remember that older fighters tend to be more expensive to operate then newer models.

Also we have a very significant aerospace industry around here, and buying new aircraft ought to generate access to new technologies and probably some post sale support business for Brazilian companies, especially Embraer. The AMX light attack fighter program of the 80s was responsible for the acquisition of several advanced production capabilities by Embraer, those techniques allowed for the creation and development of the very succesful ERJ 145 regional jet program.

Brazil, some people forget is still one of the ten largest economies in the world and harbors many expanding geopolitical goals. First of all we want a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, and for this to happen we need a stronger and more mobile military with expeditionary capability, and that’s in the works. It is clear that our politicians are more and more looking outside our continent for partneship oportunities and military based relations are a norm in many parts of the world, you certainly agree…

Many analysts put us as part of the BRIC group of expanding regional powers. The three other nations included in this group: Russia, China and india, all have large militaries and also have nuclear weapons. Since these are currently outlawed by our current constitution we miust now turn to upgrading our conventional weaponry to be able to face this century’s emerging threats.

So buying 36 new fighters is absolutely nothing compared to what has been bought by the US, India, China, UK, France, Italy, Germany, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, etc. M

Gentlemen, may I suggest we leave the “fury” aside and try to focus ouselves back on the “facts”?:rolleyes:

Here’s how I see it:

a- Iran is not currently under any sort of UN-mandated arms embargo, so any country may sell any kind of conventional weaponry to it as they see fit.

b- Iran does need new fighters to raplace venerable F-14, F-4, and F-5s from the seventies, and soon to be obsolete MiG-29s, Su-24s, Su-25 and J-7 aircraft.

c- Iran has been manaced with bombing and/or invasion by the US and Israel repetedly and publicly

d- China is in the middle of attemping to actively assert itself as a global power, from its current regional power status. Selling world classe jet fighters and all it’s drag along products and services is certainly a good way to bring other less developed nations “under Chinas geopolitical wings”.

e- To Russia this sale to Iran is ambivalent from one point of view its positive, the engine manufacturers for instance, they love to sell China their wares by the hundreds… On the opposite camp there’s MiG for instance that may think the J-10 is a real menace to the further export potential of it’s modernized MiG-29 line…

f- Also if the Chinese still pack their planes with many Russian components and systems, they will still retain some leverage/control on what is sold by China and to whom they sell. The real question is how long this “remote control” will last…

g- Russia also surely relishes on the fact that China too is opposing the US-imposed “new world order”, and any one making Washington’s uber rule harder is a friend to Moscow.

h- Israel has got itself on the sharp end of a massive defense products “carrot and stick” situation with the US. Once the US offered the Israeli Air Force with hundreds of modern, subsided and generously funded F-16C/Ds they had to sacrifice the high-potential Lavi project, and the political freedom it would offer them in the altar of being militarily dependent of its greatest “benefactor”… Also the need for foreign clients has pushed Israeli companies to sell products to whoever is willing to purchase them, countries like China, for instance… If only the US armed forces would buy more from the Israelis….

This announcement of this hipotetical Iranian sale has sounded to me as quite possible but rather premature. Normally orders like this are kept in the silent until the last plane is delivered, in order to avoid the exact political turmoil we see before us right now. But, who knows, maybe the mandarins at the Chinese Comunist Party don’t really care about what the western media thinks of its defense deals… Let’s just wait until the 2008 Beijing Olimpics blows over…:diablo:

Comments?

Regards,

Hammer

No.. Aero is now owned by a Slovak holding. Boeing has backed out. Yet still 49% of current L-159 is of American origin. Aero considered an eastern version of the aircraft to boost sales but I haven’t heard of it since a while. IIRC, Venezuela expressed interest some time ago but American parts obviously prevented such deal from materializing. Look like the Garrett F124 was a bad choice.

US blocade of military aircraft sales to Venezuela should soon extend to Bolivia, as the two countries get closer and closer geopolitically. Ecuador shoud be the next in line.

Regards,

Hammer