latest pentegon estimites worry whether taiwan will be able to last long enough on its own until the US can mobilise its forces. while that has a heavy hint of warmongering and sales pitch, the fact of the matter is that without outside intervention, china can take taiwan by purely conventional means. the only question is how long it would take and how many lives it would cost.

Once China has taken over the Island, would the US still go ahead and start a counter-offensive against the occupying Chinese forces? You brought up an important asset, and that is that once China has invaded Taiwan, will the world still react? This opposed to the scenario of “Taiwan being threatened” and US/allies backing the Taiwanese, to keep them away from the island. I can still see the US ‘protecting’ Taiwan, but I don’t see it starting a counter-offensive-war to clear the island from Chinese oppression. So, theoretically, a supprise attack using conventional weapons would be possible I can imagine. However, in real life, prior to an attack there will already be tensions between PRC and the US/Europe and in the meanwhile the “allies” can mobilise their troops in the region, or at least put them on an alert. But nobody imagined ‘Pearl harbour’ to be realistic before that one, sunny day somewhere in 1941.
Big difference (and not just semantics this time), any comments?

Poetry 😀 Nice, very nice. May I use this letter and replace NTL with belgacom? 😀

I meant that Irish are not interrested in belgian national matters (road signs).

PRC will not become a “free and democratic” state like us westerners think it should be. China has a long history on its own (of which I know – honestly – practicly nothing), liberal and social democracies only exist in the west and India, for I consider liberal democracy to be a form a governing, not a human right. As long as a gov’t is not acting against the will of it’s people it’s somehow democratic, but therefor not liberal. China is not a totallitarian regime, for it would be quite a job to brainwash more than 1 billion people of different ethnic origin, religion under the rule of one party leader. Mao was able, but today China is more capitalist than any other country in the world, they even changed the constitution to allow personal properties. China is still a communist country, on paper. I would describe it as an authoritarian regime approved by the will of the people.

Cooper, your scenario of the RoC and the US, together with its almighty allies. I have my doubts. The PRC still has the huge advantage of knowing the area, having millions of troops … A quick war with technological superiority I hear you think. Didn’t Iraq showed us that war can’t be won without asking human lives. Now, imagine thousands of american body-bags being send home to the US … Unless somebody really attacks the US I don’t think they’ll intervene again the next decade or two.

Ofcourse PLA Wolf. It was just an argument to explain what I’m trying to say.

But agree with the rest of what you say. It’s not because China is not a western liberal republic, that it’s not democratic. The only difference is China is not as individualistic as the west. I don’t think a regime which has no good intentions with the people can rule a country for longer than 50 years. Eventually, there have to be good leaders, no matter if they are communist party-leaders, enlightened kings, elected prime-ministers or semi-elected texan-cowboys. Why do we remember Churchill? Because he was a good leader, not because he was elected. Hell, he even hated democracy 😎

in war, and only war.

I would assume that Beijing would understand that attacking Taiwan would be a gave mistake. Taiwan would be more than able to defend itself until reinforcements arrive in the form of the U.S. military and possibly other armed forces in the region.

You can’t seriously think the PRC would be that crazy?? Not only would they get annihilated, but Taiwan and its allies would take serious losses as well and no one is going to stand for something that catastrophic happening.

China has everything to lose (such as their current ecnonomic power plus massive losses militarily) and nothing to gain by attacking Taiwan so I seriously doubt they’d do it.

What does the PRC have to gain by having Taiwan become part of the “mainland” anyway?

It’s not like if Taiwan is declared an independent state that people can’t go back and forth to visit relatives and whatnot so why would someone with family on both sides object to independence?

Héhé, I had some laughs. Phantom, you can’t be serious. Well, I’m no military analyst, but I do know that China is a regional superpower. It would be a big mistake to trigger a war for China, but it would be an ever bigger mistake for the US to interfere in it. A conventional war between the US and China seems rather impossible, and in a nuclear war, there are only losers, no matter what SAC-commander Curtis Le May may have said. But even if the US would send conventional forces, how much troops can they send, maybe at max 500 000 soldiers? China can outnumber them like what, about 20 times, or more? China has no sophisticated carriers, AWACS like the US? No need, if China wants to invade, even if they let the soldiers swim from the mainland to Taiwan, enough will survive to outnumber the ROC and the US forces. Europeans at this point, well, maybe we can rent some Ukrainian Antonovs to send some backup but that’s it.

You forget one thing Phantom, and that is, quantity always wins if you are going till the end!!! Look at the Soviets during WWII. Times have changed. Probably, but the Chinese aren’t a bunch of cavedwellers either. Special Forces and Marines are well-trained, but so is the Chinese infantry (remembers seeing a documentary on Discovery). And since there are only 50 000 Marines, against, how many Red caps? And the ROC on its own. I would like to compare it to the Finno-Russian war of the late thirties: The Fins were heroic, well trained guerillia-warriors and earned a place in the history books. The Russians were regarded as incompetent and slow, but still, who won? “It’s not the bravest man that wins the war, it’s the strongest” I can still remember someone saying this on this particular forum.

But currently, Beijing is not interrested in a war, because that would cost too much: money, lives, allies. Both China and the US are aware that a war would be a catastrophy. However, China will probably win this war, for the reason that they are fighting in their homeland and don’t have to cross the Pacific.

BTW, exactly 4000 posts. 😎 Not bad is it, 4000 posts of intelligent, coherent phrases 😀 Don’t I diserve a Nobel-or Pullitzer-price.

And don’t forget the Aeneis, which was written by Vergilius in the first century. Emperor August wanted to create a connection between the Romans and the Trojans. In the end of the movie you see the “hero” Aeneis which is going to create the first Roman settelement Alba Longa.

And there’s also Livius’ Ad urbe condita.

Since I’ve seen Snatch I have no doubts on Pitt’s capabilities. Same with “12 monkeys”.