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Sintra

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  • in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2275341
    Sintra
    Participant

    Hi All,
    Just out of interest what is the latest projected cost per unit to the U.K. government please the last I heard was what it cost the
    Americans was $1 Trillion plus and is this figure including development and overrun penalties please ?

    Geoff.:D

    Short answer, no one knows, that includes Philip Hammond and George Osborne.

    The official UK budget for development and acquision of the JCA was 2556 million pounds (1874 million pounds for System Development plus 692 million pounds for Production, Sustainment &
    Follow on Development), that budget has been slashed by around 350 million pounds in the last two/three years, so right now the entire JCA program is budgeted for 2.2 billion Pounds (numbers here: http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Major-Projects-Vol-2.pdf). Mind you there are no firm numbers for airframes contracted except the three development aircrafts.
    Calling the UK part of the program “underfunded” is a “mild” understatement and almost certainly there wont be no new monney available for the next few years, that means that the UK Plc wont commit for more orders for a bit of time, that means a few years, i would imagine that by 2015 the scenario will be a lot clear.

    The unit cost will be entirely dependent on how many aircrafts are bought/produced, that means that the chances of the airframes getting cheaper each year that goes by are very high, this is a big plus for the UK Plc to sign by the end of the decade instead of “next year”. So untill the UK Plc decides in wich LOT´s their aircrafts are going to be built there wont be a firm “unit cost”.
    The only thing that we can surely say is that a 14 ton Stealth VSTOL supersonic strike fighter wont be cheap (“cheap” in this case might mean Tornado/Typhoon…)

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2275515
    Sintra
    Participant

    F-35 is the new F-16, not Gripen NG.

    The F-35A is the spiritual sucessor of the latest batches (the heavy ones) of the Viper, pick a Sufa or a Desert Falcon stick stealth and two internal bays big enough to haul ATG ordnance and there you go, a “Dave”.

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2275644
    Sintra
    Participant

    http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/assets_c/2013/07/F35refuels-thumb-560x839-178559.jpg

    Thats just beautiful, thanks

    in reply to: UK shortage of Frigates and Destroyers #1999164
    Sintra
    Participant

    Calling a FASSMER derivate “HMS Warspite” is … Oo

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]218705[/ATTACH]

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon News and Updates #2275816
    Sintra
    Participant

    http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.de/2012/08/typhoons-present-and-future.html

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurofighter_Typhoon

    planned 1985: 765 planned 1997: 620 planned 2008: 707 ordered Tranche 1: 148 ordered Tranche 2: 299 planned Tranche 3: 236 ordered Tranche 3A: 124 ordered Total: 571

    And?
    What´s your point?
    If we start looking at the planned production orders by the eighties all programs look like they were hit by a train…
    Both SAAB and Dassault aircraft orders have been heavily slashed, remember the 320+ Rafale´s for Adla and the MN? And dont get me into the 720+ ATF´s and 600+ NATF´s.

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2278234
    Sintra
    Participant

    The biggest failure in F35 program has been the the delays.

    No, not even close, the biggest failure is cost. Everyone and is dog in NATO was looking for the follow on of the Viper in terms of costs, no one (untill recently) was expecting something in the evolved Eagle/Typhoon bracket, this coupled with a severe economic crisis will amount in the medium term to (big) cuts in numbers bought, less flying time and a lot less active sqn´s.
    On the other hand if the multiple programs that are in place adressing the lack of bandwidth bear fruit, General Atomics will have a field day.

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2278236
    Sintra
    Participant

    He won’t have to as what little is left of his “Reputation” will be long gone………….

    Reputation?!

    SELEX 1000… Next

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2235953
    Sintra
    Participant

    He will never admit erring.

    On costs and development schedule he wont need to, on capability only time will tell.

    in reply to: Two JF-17 vs One Su-30MKI #2238505
    Sintra
    Participant

    Oh dear, there’s no need to bring the UK into this. 🙁

    Best message in this entire topic…

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2238635
    Sintra
    Participant

    Until that happens a lot is really up in the air…(that is if they do full on testing including all aspect RCS and Low observability etc etc)…The F-35 as a design has been undergoing testing for many many years, since the X-35 days, the F-18 Adv needs to be put into similar testing before capability comparisons can be made…

    I have to disagree, the Super Hornet is a known quantity for a very long time, we are not talking of a new aircraft, we are talking of sticking CFT�s, a pod and a FLIR on a tested and tried aircraft, whatever testing must be done it wont be much (at least by comparison with an entirely new program). In terms of RCS, its probable that no one sensible believes that a “Silent Hornet” will be anything near the F-35C.

    Interestingly the author (BS) does seem to be giving boeing the credit he doesnt to the F-35.

    Well, if the JSF program had the same track record that the SH, there wouldnt any discussions around here, the Marine Corps would have IOC`d three years ago, there would be hundreds of Dave�s flying around and the unit cost would be somewhere south of Viper/Gripen costs…
    On the other hand in the past he has been very vocal against severall programs, the JSF is just the last one, if i remember correctly Eurofighter threatned to sue him at a point. To be fair i think he likes the Gripen (well who doesnt?) and the Viper (well who doesnt II). And i have to say that he writes very well.

    The F-35 C Seems the best option for the F-18 replacement, given it can trap, which would be known soon enough. Procure the F-35C and UCLASS now and replace the classic hornet. Invest appropriate money to extend the F-18SH life and continue to work internally and with DARPA on the 6th gen FA-XX that would eventually replace the SH around 2030 or 35.

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]218255[/ATTACH]

    I think that sums up the US Navy plan, a sensible one in my opinion, the “Silent” Hornet being the fall back option if “Dave C” keeps getting more expensive and having a plan “B” is also quite sensible.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2238854
    Sintra
    Participant

    One quick question, Have the SH Advanced Stealthy upgrades been actually tested or are planned to be actually tested by the USN or any other agency for verification for both RCS and Low observability?

    The prototype is going to be tested this summer at (suposedly) Patuxent River.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2238857
    Sintra
    Participant

    4th generation operating costs are relevant, but a lot has changed in the decades since those aircraft were designed.

    Just look at the 787 versus the 767 it replaces. Sure they are both airliners and they both “burn the same fuel,” but that hasn’t prevented the 787 from offering dramatic improvements in maintainability and overall operating costs.

    In the F-35’s case it is a heavier and more complex aircraft than those it is replacing and so an outright drop in costs may not be attainable, but that isn’t to say that 4th generation operating costs accurately predict those of the F-35.

    Have to agree, making an estimation based on the Viper and Hornet fleets will be relevant but it wont accurately predict the costs for the F-35.
    The costs in severall sub systems should be lower for the “35”, i am thinking of the radar (an AESA, the USAF Viper fleet uses MSA´s), the SFC for the engine should be lower than what we find in the F100/F110 and it has its own integrated LDP, on the other hand the stealth bit should add costs.
    In the end i think its safe to presume that a 13+ ton stealth strike fighter equiped with the “biggest” engine ever is going to be more expensive to operate than the USAF Viper fleet, by how much? Only time will tell.

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2238861
    Sintra
    Participant

    £70,000 – It’s what it costs to fly mate, take away any of those things an it sits on the runway or in a hanger. You an others don’t like it, we know that but not everything in life is wonderful. And sure the cost will come down over time, in line with the other jets, and did you see how much they cost per hour? More than the F-35.

    Wrong there “mate”, the costs associated to “depreciation” (by example) are irrelevant for operational use (and they are not used by the Pentagon).
    Again, the USAF dont factor several variables that the UK uses, that has already been pointed to you, that makes the British numbers seem hugely high by comparison with everyone else. And if you somehow believe that cost per hour of the Harrier GR9 was, in 2010, higher than the equivalent number for the Raptor i have quite a big bridge to sell to you.

    Cheers

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2239569
    Sintra
    Participant

    I did say in my post; they were pulled straight from the UK Governments website. http://www.parliment.co.uk

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldhansrd/text/101125w0001.htm

    Expensive isn’t it.

    Not particulary, just like halloweene mentioned it includes amortisation and depreciation (and costs of capital charge), something that you wont find in a Pentagon equivalent report. If those numbers were equivalent to the numbers used by the Pentagon,the RAF Harriers would be more expensive to operate than the USAF Raptors…
    Its like trying to compare the “Program Unit Cost” of an aircraft with the “Fly Away Unit Cost” of another, typical mistake done around here.
    Apples to apples…

    “The MoD calculates the full cost of aircraft per flying hour; the current rates for our fast jets are shown below. These figures include forward and depth servicing, fuel costs, crew costs, training costs, cost of capital charge, depreciation and amortisation. The Typhoon cost per flying hour reflects the build-up of the fleet with small numbers of aircraft currently in service. This cost will comparatively reduce as the fleet builds and is expected to be similar to our other fast jet fleets when we reach a steady state position.”

    Last year Stuart Atha mentioned that the direct cost for flying hour for the RAF is around 5200 pounds/hour, dont know what he was exactly refering to, but would imagine that this was fuel and servicing only.

    in reply to: F-35 Debate thread (2) #2239574
    Sintra
    Participant

    Is the Rafale and Typhoon more expensive to buy and operate than the F-35? Perhaps it is, but I am not sure.

    On an apples to apples comparison the two Eurocanards are both cheaper to acquire and to operate, and has of today by quite a considerable margin, a huge one. If (a big IF) the JSF actually ends up producing an aircraft at the projected costs around 2020, it will still be more expensive, than, say a Typhoon, but not by the bloody massive diference that exists today, the numbers are public.
    I am entirely prepared to discuss this backed by official documents from the US GAO, the Pentagon budget, the JSF office, the UK NAO, the FMS site,the French Cour des Comptes and the Canadian MOD. If someone (Spud?) wants to pick this one…

Viewing 15 posts - 1,606 through 1,620 (of 3,443 total)