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Sintra

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  • in reply to: The PAK-FA Saga Episode III #2470973
    Sintra
    Participant

    Ramjet R-77M has been in development for some time, flight-tests are imminent with in service likely around 2015 or sooner. I wouldn’t expect the Su-27SM2 to enter service with yesterday’s weapons. Even China has a ramjet AMRAAM type about to start testing.

    If there´s one AAM that always got my attention was/his the Ramjet powered R-77, basically because the information about this weapon his so scarce. Compared with it, even such elusive programs as the K37, K37M, KS-172 or the Chinese SD-10 are well documented (well, sort off). It´s a bit like the “Flying Dutchman” of the AAM world.

    The only photo available that I am aware of that particular version it´s a 1993 mock up.
    Every time that someone writes something about this weapon and illustrates with a photo it´s invariably the same image that Air International printed in some early 1994 edition.

    The last confirmed news that I am aware about the “Ramjet R-77” are from 2005 in Janes. It was the report of the closure in late 2004 of the Bureau who was responsible for the Ramjet engines.

    And it seems that the last iteration of the “R-77M” it´s a vastly different beast from that “ramjet powered R-77”.
    From Pyotr Butowsky:

    Russia’s most modern medium-range air-to-air missile is the R-77 (Izdeliye 170) and its export derivative RVV-AE (Izdeliye 190). A phased modernization of this weapon, designated the K-77-1 (Izdeliye 170-1), is now being tested. In addition, the K-77M (Izdeliye 180) missile is currently under development as a second step in the R-77’s modernization. The most visible change in the Izdeliye 180’s external appearance compared to the R-77/RVV-AE is replacement of its latticework fins by more common flat aerodynamic control planes. This reduces aerodynamic drag and cuts down on the radar cross-section. The missile will be fitted with a modernized active radar seeker and new double pulse solid-propellant engine. Its maximum range will be 2-3.5 times more than the Izdeliye 170 (R-77) missile, depending on the launch altitude. The Izdeliye 180 is expected to be better than the AMRAAM AIM-120C7 missile, and equal to its successor versions, with a service-ready date targeted for 2010.

    http://www.ato.ru/rus/cis/archive/17-2007/def/def3/

    There are unconfirmed Russian reports that the development of the Ramjet R-77 was axed has early has 1999.

    So, does the Ramjet R-77 still exist?

    I have been following this story via AFM, Janes, Armada International, etc, and the occasional Russian report that his translated to English, and cant get any confirmation of ongoing development of this weapon for… half a decade.
    And every time that I ask for information, someone points to me that most famous “F111shouldhaveanAESAandanewengine” web page, APA, that in my book it´s not the most reliable source.
    So, am I looking in the wrong places, or do I need to look again?

    And about the Chinese Ramjet AAM. A plastic mock up in an International weapons trade fair doesnt mean that the PLAAF has a new weapon that his “about to start testing”.

    Cheers

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471212
    Sintra
    Participant

    Could you blame them ?

    Even if we use 150 Million $ lyaway cost (the current MY contract includes spares and other support equipment so not fully indictive of fly away cost) we get the cost at roughly 60% greater then those costs of the EF and rafale . However we must consider the added STEALTH coupled with LOW no of procurment (185 raptors compared to how many EF’s?) , No procured has an effect on Fly away aswell because streamlining of production cannot be done to an extent desired (because it costs $$) and also the vendors are looking to recover cost over a small order . Was the 2004 batch purchased the last for the EF ?

    bring_it_on

    The four Eurofighter European partners dont buy Tiffies on an annual bases, there are no “2004, 2005, 2006 batches”. In 2004 the four partners signed a fixed price contract for the delivery of the entire tranche 2 for 13 Billion Euros. The annual batches it´s a Pentagon “thing”. 😉
    The official “Fly Away Cost” for the entire Fleet of Raptor´s his 154.267 million US$, and that´s a bit more than just 60%, even in today´s Dollar/Euro exchange. If we make a full comparison for all the years and the respective exchange rate between Dollar/Euro the actual relation would be something like one Raptor for every two Tiffies.
    And yes, you are correct if the original 700 plus Raptors had been ordered the Fly Away Cost would go down.

    http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/7162/f22tg6.jpg
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-080204-081.pdf

    Cheers 🙂

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471451
    Sintra
    Participant

    At the above mentioned prices, I think all the 3 European contenders for the Indian MRCA tender will be eliminated before any negotiations itself. These prices may escalate even further considering licence production rights.

    Actually, in terms of costs, it´s the exact oposite that will happen. These costs are for planes made in Germany, France, Great Britain, etc, etc, and not in India.
    Of the entire MRCA fleet, more than 90% will be built in India, and (unlike Saudi Arabia) the production costs are way lower than in Western Europe or in the United States, but higher than in Russia (see HAL 2005 report about the costs and production of the SU-30MKI).
    Think Jaguar, the Unit Cost that India payed was lower than if those planes had been made in Warton.
    For such a big program the fact that almost the entire fleet of MRCA´s fighters will be built in India it´s a mighty cost equalizer between the contestants.

    Cheers 🙂

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471754
    Sintra
    Participant

    Originally Posted by aurcov
    Another thing: the “official” source of 4.43 billion doesn’t say a word of what is in for this sum. So the price could be “flyaway” only.

    No, but if you were a buyer of Air Forces Monthly and a reader of flight global you would find a LOT of what the deal covers in detail, and its a lot more than just the planes. Those articles are written by well known Aviation Journos (Graham Warwick, Jon Lake, etc, etc) and are citing Identified (with the name on it) Industry and Mod officials.
    There´s an excellent three pages article in the “News Section” of AFM a few months ago that covers the entire “Project Rohan/Salam” (eg Typhoon sale to Saudi Arabia).
    And for the last time, if you want the unit “Fly Away Cost” (cost of construction of airframe, avionics and engines, without development, training, logistics, etc) for the Typhoon that are being delivered now, the Tranche 2 contract was signed in 14 December of 2004, and it covers the construction and delivery of 236 fighters to the four consortium partners for 13 Billion Euros. That´s 57 Million Euros for Typhoon, EXACTLY what was promised to the Dutch MOD in 1999.
    http://www.eurofighter.com/news/article183.asp?srcx=dev1

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471838
    Sintra
    Participant

    Oh God

    Another one

    The Dutch say that in 1999, Eurofighter was offering the Netherlands a per-aircraft price of 57.4 million euros, but that Saudi Arabia is now having to pay 8.1 billion euros for 72 Tranche 2 aircraft (112.5 million euros per aircraft) — roughly equal to what Austria is paying, according to the ministry.

    Inbelivable, incredible, just plain stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    They´ve just confounded Euros with US$?!!!!!!!

    The Saudi contract amounts to 4,43 Billion Pounds (that´s official by the way) , that´s 5,55 Billion Euros or 8,74 Billion US$…

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471868
    Sintra
    Participant

    It doesn’t really matter what Ex rate you use, any published costs for any defence product of such magnitude have a massive amount of caveats behind them. I sell the darn things.
    There is not really a “Fly-away” cost for any military A/c, it depends on the whole deal. Most deals have some sort of offset, a side deal of weapons (Not included in the same contract but a memo of understanding has been signed), special finance deals, who’s paying the initial spares provision etc. etc. etc..

    You are absolutelly correct.

    In the case of Libya, we have shut him out since Lockerbie, he’s had to buy Russian stuff. Since 2005 he is our new best friend he wants all the latest kit and has 25 years of oil savings to buy it with. The Col. will soon retire but Number 1 Son will be looking after most of the big future deals.
    In dealing with the Son, it is clear that money is not the object, product is. The Libyans do a massive amount of research on each product, funding all the competitors with “Bid construction and product development” money. However, getting them to lay an egg and sign up is a bit like dealing with India!!!
    BAe were into Libya within a couple of years of Lockerbie. It takes 15 to 20 years to develop a new military customer, so they weren’t going to miss that boat.

    So BAE his serious in the Typhoon bid to Libya?
    Bit surprised on that one, i alway´s imagined that BAE´s considered “Libyan eggs” as a “very looooong shot”!

    (sorry about the dreadful English, it´s not exactly my “first language”)

    Cheers 🙂

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471885
    Sintra
    Participant

    What I understand from the Dutch letter to Parliament they use 2005 dollars for the costs of the F-35. And they’ve valued the dollar at 1.20 against the euro, while at the moment it’s more like 1.60.

    Swerve his using the 2009 USAF budget that was released in February this year. The unit “Fly Away Cost” for the entire 1763 F-35A was a bit more than 83 million US$.

    in reply to: The real price of European fighters #2471991
    Sintra
    Participant

    Are they comparing flyaway costs to lifetime costs or just pulling numbers out of the air?

    Much worse than that…
    They are comparing Foreign sales contracts with some HUGE cost multipliers like a factory (and a lot of other things) in the Saudi case, Financial loans from Banks equivalent to 1/4 of the total contract in the Austrian buy and decades of logistical suport and weaponry in the Libyan case, with the LM 2005 projected “Fly Away Cost” for the entire fleet of F-35A´s of 47 million´s US$… Yes, the Dutch Minister and several Defence official´s have been using Power point presentation´s made by Lockheed Martin (!) with this cost, as late as LAST MONTH!
    This is political spin at it´s worst.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473794
    Sintra
    Participant

    Note that before FY 2007 the average flyaway price was $161.6 mn.

    I think $133 million is probably the lowest price paid for a years production batch, maybe for 2006 (IIRC I read about then that for a few aircraft the price was something like $129 mn, but that price only held for about 3 months), but unfortunately some people have chosen to quote it endlessly as “the” price. Not really honest.

    You are correct, the average flyaway price for the entire fleet of Raptor´s was 154.267 Million US$, the 133 million$ never happened.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473799
    Sintra
    Participant

    Well, thats the price most often quoted for the Raptor and is very close to FY 08/09. I can only assume the price goes up as the Raptor nears the end of production. Of course more orders for the USAF or a possible export contract could change that? Regardless, the Raptor will never be close to the price of its cheaper cousin the F-35.:D

    Actually, Stephen Trimble from “Flight International” in his Blog “The Dew Line” made a direct quote from the USAF for exactly that situation, the cost of another batch of 20 Raptor´s being bought after the delivery of the entire 183 F-22 fleet.

    F-22 = $220 million
    You knew this would happen eventually: The F-22’s program acquisition cost and its numerical designation are roughly in synch.

    The US Air Force wants to extend the F-22 production line one year past its scheduled closure date at the end of fiscal year 2010.

    I asked the USAF to tell me how much it would cost. One week later, the response is: $526 million in fiscal year 2009 and $3.892 billion in fiscal year 2010.

    That adds up to $4.418 billion for 20 aircraft, or exactly $220.9 million per copy, including spares, overhead, etc.

    I also think it’s interesting that the F-22 and the C-17 each cost about $220 million.

    http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/f22/

    Cheers:)

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473814
    Sintra
    Participant

    $136.8 million, eh? Or $170.8 million for something usable. 😀

    BTW, the inflation rates assumed in those budget forecasts are here.

    Table 10.1, “Gross Domestic Product and Deflators Used in the Historical Tables: 1940–2013”.

    I think that after 2013 they assume a constant modest inflation rate.

    Thanks 😉

    That´s very useful information.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473820
    Sintra
    Participant

    We’re talking different price bases here. The “to completion” cost, after low-rate initial production, of $80 mn flyaway, is in “then-year” dollars, & includes a forecast future inflation rate. Therefore, if you buy more early on & few late on, that price is lower than if you buy few early on & more late on. I think that’s a silly notion, & it would be better to use constant-price numbers.

    BTW, this is the F-35A. The F-35B & C will be more expensive.

    Swerve

    What you are saying his correct, but THAT number (to completion” cost, after low-rate initial production, of $80 mn flyaway) his meaningless.
    The F-35A production was “caped” by the Congress and the USAF for 48 units a year. That means that the last of those 1763 “lightnings” will be delivered to the USAF in… 2043… Trying to calculate an APUC or an PUAC in that time frame his… well, impossible?!
    The production can be doubled or tripled, of course, but what are the chances of the Pentagon budget getting a raise in the next few years? And what his the biggest Pentagon Program, and what are the chances of that program getting partly “axed”?

    Cheers 🙂

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473840
    Sintra
    Participant

    Well, the Raptor is going for $133 Million and only “183” are currently projected! So, considering the F-35 was designed with economy in mind and it will be constructed in the thousands! I have seen nothing that gives credence to such an outlandish claim………..So, as its stands today the Lightning should be very competitive! While, being far more capable….:diablo:

    133 million?
    Here you go, the exact numbers:
    http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/8559/f22la1.jpg

    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-080204-081.pdf (page 55)

    Cheers 🙂

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473845
    Sintra
    Participant

    I would love to see the original document that Reuters used to write the story.
    So, the USAF just released a document with completely diferent numbers from it´s official budget from February 2008…
    Right, and my name his Napoleon…

    2009 Budget
    http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/7177/f35gl1.jpg
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-080204-081.pdf

    2008 Budget
    http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/9678/f34aj1.jpg
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070212-004.pdf

    2006 Budget
    http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2281/f33ml3.jpg
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070214-050.pdf

    Strange, i would be expecting such a “document” would appear in some specialized press, like “AW”, or “Flight Global”, but “Reuters”?!!!!

    in reply to: Eurofighter Typhoon news II #2477617
    Sintra
    Participant

    Still login issues. And new registrations fail.

    Tried to register some four or five times yesterday… 😡

Viewing 15 posts - 3,301 through 3,315 (of 3,443 total)