Piotr Butowski has written a guest article in July’s issue of Air Force Magazine concerning the current status of Ruaf (some as of May, some as of August 2015)

Here’s a summary of what he wrote:

Typical tactical squadron numbers 12 airframes plus up to 2 more for training purposes (two seaters)
Typical strategic bomber squadron numbers 10 airframes.

Evaluation bases fielding tactical combat planes:
Lipetsk
Sevasleyka
Kubinka

Training bases for tactical combat planes:
Astrakhan,
Kushcevskaya
Armavir
Borisoglebsk

6th army:
47th regiment, voronezh – 2 squad su-34, 1 squad su24mr
899th regiment, buturlinkovka – su25 to be stationed from 2017
790th reg, khotilovo – 2 sq mig31, 1 sq su27
14th reg, khalino – 3 sq mig29
159th reg, besovets – 3 sq su-27
98th reg, monchegorsk – 2 sq su24m/mr, 1 sq mig-31 (su24 converting to su34 from 2015)
plus special detachment of 4 su27 on station in belarus.

14th army:
6980th air base:
chelyabinsk – 2 sq su24m, 1 sq su24mr
Perm – 2 sq mig31
kansk – 2 sq mig31
999th air base – kant (kyrgyzstan) – some su25, su27

11th army:
22nd reg – tsentralnaya ugovaya – 2 sq su27sm, 1 sq mig31, some su30m2
23rd reg – dzemgi: 2 sq su27sm, 1 sq su35, some su30m2
227th reg – khurba – unknown number of su24m/m2
187th reg – chernigovka – 2 sq su25sm
799th reg – vargolomeevka – unknown number of su24mr
120th reg – domna – unknown number of su30sm, su25

4th army:
559th reg, morozovsk – unknown number su24m, su34
11th reg, marinovka – unknown number su24mr
535th reg, erebuni (armenia) – unknown number mig-29
31st reg, millerovo – 3 sq mig29
3rd reg, krymsk – unknown number su27, su30
960th reg, primorsko akhtarask – unknown number su25
368 reg, budyannovsk – 2 sq su-25
37th reg, gvardeyskoye – 1 sq su24m, 1 sq su25sm
38th reg, belbek – 2 sq su27sm, some su30m2

naval aviation:
northern fleet, 279th reg, severomorsk-3 – unknown number of su27, su33, su25utg

pacific fleet, 7060th air base – yelizovo – unknown number of mig31,

baltic fleet: 72nd air base –
chakalovsk – unknown number su27
chernyakhovsk – unknown number su24m

black sea fleet
43rd reg – novofyodorovka – 1 sq su24, 1 sq su24mr, unknown number su30sm

Now, if one went through active combat units and counted those planes accoring to what he wrote about squadron sizes (up to 14 per sq) then one gets the following:

su30sm – around 36
su27sm – 72 (this is the one most suspicious figure, as there should be only 60ish total, not just even in combat coded regiments)
su27s/ub – 110
su35- 14 ? (plausible, as its a new type and majority may still be in tactics development and training units)
mig31 – 120
mig29/ub/smt/ubt – 98 (plausible, as we know very few combat units actually operate mig29)
su34 – 36 ? (plausible, same reason as with su35)
su24m/m2 – 90 (quite a bit lower estimate than expected)
su24mr -90 ??? (this can’t possibly be right, so i assume mr regiments usually have less planes)
su25/sm- 125 (quite a bit lower estimate than expected)
su30m2 – 12
su33 – 14 ?

Very important!!! – There are several bases where Piotr did not say how many planes/regiment an airbase has. The above list guesstimated each time he mentions unknown number he means one regiment. So that may very well explain some discrepancies. Some of units he mentions may actually have 2-3 regiments instead of one or some may have a small detachment of several planes instead of a full regiment.

But what is most peculiar is what Piotr mentions next – he gives a list of all active types in ruaf and he estimates total (active i assume, both combat and non-combat unit) inventory for each type:
mig29 – 164 (out of which 14 in VMF. i assume those are mig29k that havent so far stood up as an active unit)
mig31 – 120
su24m/mr – 260 (so both combat and recce variants)
su25 – 200
su27 – 200 (out of which 70 su27sm – he explicitly says this)
su30 – 53 (both sm and m2 combined)
su33 – 21 (as far as i know this is most certainly not the case, concerning active remaining airframes)
su34 – 61
su35 – 34

If the above lists are taken for granted we find out that there are:
180 combat unit su27 and 20 more in noncombat units.
48ish combat su30 and 5-ish more in noncombat.
14ish combat su35 and 20 more in noncombat
120 combat mig31 and none non combat???
180ish combat unit su24/mr and 80 more in non combat
125 combat su25 and 75 more in non combat
98ish combat mig29 plus 66-ish more in non combat
14ish combat su33 and 7 more in non combat
36ish combat su34 and 25 more in non combat

Su27 ratio seems a bit on the low side but still plausibly right, what other air forces might have for an old type.
mig31 ratio is impossible. either combat units have less than 120 or there are two dozen more non combat unit planes.
su24/mr ratio can’t be right. either there are more combat unit planes or less non combat ones. while airframes may be used for rotation and cannibalisation since its an old type – i personally would not count them as active airframes in such a case.
su25 has same issue as su24 above.
mig29 has same issue as above.
other types seem fine.

So, my concluding question is: Does anyone have a written, published (web published is fine) source of recent (2014 is fine) situation that substantially differs from what Butowski says?

So if i am not mistaken it looks like this currently assuming they go through with the follow up contract;

60 + 70 + 20 (navy) = 150

Then navy is looking at getting more than 50 in total, so lets say 60. 190 total then… Irkut lobby, STRONG!11!! I like Su-30SM, but i wish the balance was bigger towards Su-35S tbh. Even ignoring any potential increased Navy contracts as of now Su-30SM will be the most numerable ordered flanker frame. Su-34 is very likely to get more contracts in future (post 2018) for Su-34M.

Hm, i thought it went like this: 30+30 for air force, then 12 for navy (out of possible plans for 50 more in total). now this 70 sounds like a contract instead of remaining 38.

I must say, if su35 ends up getting another 48 like rumored, that’ll be 96+142+20 (su30m2)+12 (new build su27sm3) – grand total of 270 flankers, basically completely replacing ALL legacy ex soviet flankers. That’d leave little to no room for pak-fa.

Is it then possible some regiments that were up till now operating su24 or mig29 will in the future cross over to su30sm? After all, if the navy replaced its su24 for su30sm, there is a precedent for it. of course, replacing mig29 would mean little to no room would be left for mig35.

edit: ah i see navy signed for 8 more su30sm two days ago. so that’s where 20 for navy comes for.

* Indeed, given that F-35 production will likely cease as soon as US 6th gen gets off the ground in early 2030s, whilst J-20 has the basic characteristics required to allow it to evolve to meet emerging threats and requirements, by the 2040s J-20 could well become the most produced 5th gen aircraft in history.

f-35 production and usaf’s next fighter may very well overlap for a while.

but unless whole f-35 program suddenly collapses there is NO chance j-20 will be produced in greater numbers even by 2049, let alone earlier.

given where j-20 testing is right now, it could start preproduction within a year or two. then a ramp up, then even if we assume production rate will match that of j-10 – which is roughly one 28-ship regiment per year, that’s some 900 planes by end of 2049. And chances that j-20 will be produced for 30 years, and at pace of j-10 production are quite slim.

On the other hand, even if current plans of some 3000-ish f-35 produced are eventually cut, there’s a considerable margin over the hypothetical 900 j20 production run.

Personally, i expect a 20-24 ship peak production rate for j20 and its subsequent variants, achieved perhaps by as early as 2020, then going on for some 15-20 years before it starts dwindling and a new plane takes it place by 2040 or so. So overall maybe 500-ish or so airframes…

So cj-7 isn’t based on yak-152? Since it flew a year earlier and has a different engine and accompanying fuselage changes? (radial engine)

250 per missile, especially first batch, is very unlikely. But several hundred of missiles is likely, probably upward of 500. whats more astonishing is they are all to be delivered within one year?

having 350+ f-22 would have meant chances for f-22 followup design (the current usaf f-x programme) being ready in 2030s are close to nil. This way there may indeed be new, sixth gen fighter coming on line at least a decade earlier.

Clearly R-77-1, take a look on RP i am sure you will find even better pics;

Thank you for the image! What gives the missile away as r-77-1, though? I overlaid basic r-77 over it and it matches perfectly, the one on pak-fa doesn’t seem to be 10 cm longer… Was there an announcement that the dummies this t-50 carries are indeed r-77-1?

You think Su-27SM’s/Su-30’s/Su-35S’ will replace the vanilla Su-27’s in 1/1 ratio? Besides, why would PAK-FA need to “replace” anything. It just needs to be there as a force multiplier.

I’d think the replacement will be either 1 for 1 or there will be less newer planes than there are legacy flankers. Basically, same/similar number of fighter crew sets should be active in 2020 as there are in 2015 or as there were in 2010. Do you expect significantly different ratios?

Since there are roughly 300-ish flankers (without su-34) actively being used in russian air forces, with the 20 su30m2, 72 su30sm (plus 38 expected to be ordered), 48 su35 (plus 48 expected to be ordered) and 12 (14?) newly built su27sm4 – that’s a grand total of some 240 new flankers that are going to be flying happily past 2035, save for ones lost in accidents. How many crews will then be added to serve the pak-fa? enough for 60 pak-fas, so we’re also at total of 300 flanker/pak-fa airframes? or will suddenly the air force regiments inrease in numbers during 2020s and there will be more pak-fas ordered? maybe a total od 120 by mid 2030s? maybe even 150-ish, to account for flanker attrition?