but is portugal keeping all the remaining f16s to use for themselves? if so, then they would have probably kept the least used ones for themselves and made available for sale ones that have been used the most.

it is longer than f35. avic said its 16.9 m long, 11.5 m wingspan. typical take off weight (whatever they mean with it) 17.5 tons. expected max speed around mach 1.8.
they mention combat radius of 1250 km on internal fuel. Maybe with subsonic cruise at 10 km altitude all the way.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_11_19_2012_p26-517474.xml&p=1

anyway, various images of the underbelly suggest outer dimension (door dimensions) of bomb bay are roughly 190 by 450 cm. That is basically comparable with j20 bomb bay. They’re obviously going for either A) carriage of fairly long air to ground munitions or B) staggered cluster of pl15 missiles. Also, knowing the dimensions of pl15, that bomb bay is going to be at least 40 cm deep, probably closer to 50 cm.

j20 seems more complete and thought out than this. Frankly, this shenyang jet looks like some corners were cut during its development, probably because it wasn’t a state sponsored programme. And for certain export markets it may perform fine. But it’s definitely a budget 5th gen jet.

Biggest issue f60 will have is poor range. With that huge (for its size) bomb bay they crammed into it, its very hard to see where tons and tons of fuel would fit. Even the AVIC’s figure of expected typical tow: 17.5 tons suggests not more than 4-5 tons of fuel. For a plane with bomb bay, fairly wide plane, and 180 kn of thrust the range is going to suffer.

I wonder why they went with such a big bomb bay – a loadout of two aams and two 500 kg bombs would have been enough for most expected customers.

Let me try to do a projection for all the fleets:

USAF: Older f35 production schedules planned the first deliveries 2009. and last deliveries in 2036. They also planned a pretty large scale production, 130 aircraft per year for US alone, for almost a decade. Those plans have since shifted and everything is going to happen a bit later. While production peak may indeed reach 130 planes per year for US, it will happen later. Original plan was that 130 per year be reached in 2017, but last year it was hoped that it will happen by 2021. Last i could find is that USAF will be buying 60 planes from 2018 and peak at 80 from 2021.

So, i would say that in 2030. USAF might have around 1200 f35. USN and USMC seem to have greater priority and all of their ordered jets should be delivered by then.

Also, the last i read both f15e fleet and f15c/d fleet is being kept. it seems they will try to squeeze 16.000 hours from f15c/d airframes. Around 200 or so planes are hoped to be kept by 2030s. of course they will be heavily modernized but that isn’t the concern of this thread.

We don’t know what will sequestriation bring but a-10’s future doesn’t seem too bright. They could fly in 2030, but it seems politics wants to kill them. So to be sure, i’ll go with a middle of the road figure and assume half of them will somehow survive. (not that they will, it will probably be either most or none, but i don’t want to do two separate projections)

So USAF in 2030: 180 or so f22. 1200-ish f35. 200ish f15c/d. 200ish f15e. 170ish a10. Bombers not counted here. Overall 1950 planes, similar to today’s numbers. (which may mean i actually overestimated the 2030 projection. perhaps getting rid of all a10 does seem more realistic. but i’ll go on with them)

USN: so far 565 superhornets are contracted and no more are planned. Assuming f35c production goes on as planned, no more superhornets is realistic. 260 f25c are planned and with 50 B/C models per year for usn/usmc it is perfectly achievable by 2030. I will assume legacy hornets will all get retired by then. Overall number of USN’s planes will drop, of course, but that is to be expected with less carriers, sequestriation etc. Should i count in 114 growlers? in theory yes, but in practice they’re too valuable to be used as anything else but jammers so i’ll go with no.

if anyone gets proper ucavs by 2030. it will be USN. still, anything is possible by then but based on current sloooow development of non mature techs i don’t think we’ll be seeing more than a couple of dozen by 2030.

So total USN: 550 or so superhornets (accidents) and 260 f35c. Total little over 800 planes. perhaps 40ish proper ucavs? little less than today, but reasonably so.

USMC: 340 f35b. and that’s pretty much it. probably 330ish or so, by the time 2030. comes.

grand total US: 180 or so f22. 1800-ish f35. 200ish f15c/d. 200ish f15e. 170ish a10. 550 superhornets. 40ish ucavs?

UK: Hard to tell what they’ll decide in the end. so far only 48 f35b are contracted but pretty much everyone expects the final figure to be double, though the original requirement of 138 is by now basically dead, as 2010. SDSR suggested. I’ll go with a bit more, then due to accidents round it down to an even 100.

Eurofighters for UK seem to be done at 160 pieces but it seems 53 tranche 1 planes will definitely go away by 2030, probably a lot sooner. So roughly 100-ish typhoons for RAF in 2030. And that’s pretty much it, i don’t expect any tornado to survive by then. Total for UK: 100 f35, 100ish typhoons.

France: so far 180 rafales are contracted. PRevious plans form 270 rafales are highly doubtful due to the 2013 white paper that suggests 225 combat planes overall for AF and navy, and the decision to slow down rafale production. On the upside, by 2030. All those 225 planes should be rafales. Total: 220ish rafales.

Italy: Even though current plan for f35 stands at 90, it is impossible to know whether that will come to fruition. sadly, because i’ve no way of knowing, i have to stick with that figure, even though my gut feeling tells me it will be cut even more. around 90ish typhoons should remain in force by 2030. Total: 90ish typhoons, 90is f35.

Germany: 140ish typhoons, maybe a bit less. all tornados should be retired by 2030 so i really don’t know if that’s that or if there’ll be a replacement. Truth to be told, i wouldn’t be surprised either if it comes to just 140 combat aircraft for luftwaffe or if they too order the f35 at some point. Theoretically the germans might buy some extra typhoons, perhaps take those 50 or so british tranche one aircraft. But all that is too much guesswork so i’ll stick to 140 typhoons for now. Total: 140ish typhoons.

Israel: 100 f35 by 2030 are doable. 90ish f16 sufas should remain, as also most f15 Raams. Since a good deal of pre strike eagle f15s are actually modernized a/c models i doubt they will keep them by 2030. Since newest non-sufa f16s date from early 1990s, those should be retired by then too. that seems like just 210-ish combat planes for IAF, which is a huge cutback for them. So i am pretty sure some additional order is going to be fulfilled by then. most logical choice would be additional f-35s. its hard to tell how many, of course. 50 more is a safe guess? perhaps additional f15s too, if it becomes clear timetable for a total of 150 f35 is going to take too long? But that’s again too much guesswork. Lets stick with total of 260ish combat planes, even though my gut feeling tells me actual figure may in end be closer to 300. Total: 150ish f35, 20ish f15, 90ish f16.

Japan: f4 retired by then. Since f15j were produced until 1997, a decent part of today’s fleet should remain in 2030 with the kind of life extensions they will go through in USAF. roughly 100 or so might survive by 2030. So far 42 f35 are planned but that figure may go up. 80ish f2 might remain by then. (if no more tsunamis come :D) A notational f-3 might get fielded by 2030. but that’s too hard to tell. If it doesn’t, more f35 will probably be ordered. Whatever the outcome, 50ish f3 or extra f35 seem realistic. total: 100 f15, 90ish f35, 80ish f2.

South korea: 50ish f15 should remain by 2030. a total of 100-ish FA50 seems realistic, too. I don’t believe f5s will be replaced by then on anything close to 1 to 1 basis. A smaller number of f16s should also survive as last batch of 20 was delivered in 2003/2004; 20-30 pieces total in 2030? f4s and f5s retired. Since the latest competition was cancelled even though f15 technically won, it seems destined that future plane will be f35, after new competition is done. so 60 f35s? I personally don’t see how a domestic 5th gen fighter will be ready and in service by 2030. Knowing how pretty much every such programme in the world lasts very long and it’d be a pretty big leap for SK. Over a 100 older f16s will need replacement. Perhaps not on a 1 to 1 basis, but at least 50-60 more planes is realistic. So either a domestic plane WILL be ready (and will be a 4.5 gen plane) or those extra planes will be f35. The 4.5 gen plane compromise actually seems realistic since SK does seem to be bent on expanding its domestic know how. Total: 50ish f15, 20ish f16, 60ish f35, 60ish domestic 4.5 gen planes.

Taiwan: Who the hell knows. 😀 The way they’ve been going, it seems they have little option but to keep flying with what they’ve got now until those planes fall out of the sky. They will surely be out of f5, and maybe get rid of m2000, even though those are a bit younger than f16. but i personally think they’ll keep m2000 as well as they simply don’t have any other sources left for new planes. some 120-130 original f16s might survive by then with great effort. i do believe that sale of 60ish new gen f16s will happen eventually because if it doesn’t, then that means NO new planes for taiwan whatsoever. china would surely be less pissed about f16 sale in second half of this decade than a f35 sale. 70ish or so fc-k-1 also might survive by then. perhaps 50ish m2000.
total: 190ish f16, 70ish fc-k-1. 50ish m2000.

India: around 240ish su30mki might survive by 2030. Mirages seem too old, they will be 40 years old in 2030. i do believe their current modernization is a stop gap measure, same as mig29upg which shouldn’t be alive by 2030. Tejas is very hard to guess. But even 200+ planes is possible by 2030. Its a wild guess but i’ve got nothing else so i’ll stick with it. lets also assume rafale deal will go through as i think that’s worth more to IAF than extra su30mki. 12 years to produce 108 domestic rafales seems doable. so 126 rafales total. non naval migs and jaguars are sure to be retired. fgfa is planned at 214 airframes but with first examples planned for introduction in 2022. it doesn’t seem realistic more than 140 or so will get delivered by 2030. any other domestic plane besides newer versions of tejas and fgfa is a dream by 2030. total: 240ish su30mki. 200ish tejas. 120ish rafale. 40 mig29k, 140ish fgfa.

China: Hard to guess because they don’t announce any plans really. Thankfully, their production in the past decades has been pretty consistent. Numbers per year/decade have been similar, they only switched from making older gen planes into new gen planes, no matter how much more expensive new gen planes are. So, assuming that trend will continue (they havent really shrunk their overall combat plane fleet numbers in a decade) by 2030. there might be 500 j10b produced, total j11b/j16 run may get into 200 plane territory, j20 might get to 200ish planes, and lets assume j21/j31 will get into chinese service. if it does, there’s little reason why 180 or so couldn’t get produced by 2030. jh7 production will go on for some time more, perhaps by 2020 or so. that’d suggest 120 or so more jh7a/b. what will come next is hard to tell. a new design? or will j16 take its place and even more j16 will get produced? With a projection of 3 carriers by 2020. one might expect 60 j15 and 60 j21/j31 (not adding to those previous 180)

there’s a chance a tiny number of j7 and j8 will actually survive in 2030., as latest ones were delivered in late 2000s. hard to tell how many. but lets count them out for now. Also, some of the newer planes will also get retired. original 50 jh7, original su27s from russia, part of j11a as well, maybe even some su30. lets say 50 j11a and 70ish su30.

China is hard, as i said, so a wildly guesswork based total: 440ish j11/15/16. 280ish j10a, 500ish j10b (since its development is so long, it might be safe to consider it 4.5 gen, a different enough plane from j10a) 300ish jh7a/b, 180ish j21/31, 200ish j20, 50ish new gen striker.

Russia: Probably hardest of them all to predict. On one hand their near term plans are officialy announced, unlike china’s, but long term – who knows. this rearmament programme that might go on past 2020. and perhaps come close to 2025. is probably not indicative of the production levels until 2030. (otherwise, at this speed, they’d have to increase the number of pilots and airbases compared to today and near future by 50%. i don’t think that is going to happen) What i expect will be left of legacy platforms in 2030: 30ish mig29, 12 su27. Maaaybe a few dozen mig31. Probably some dozens rewinged and completely reworked su25. additions to that: 150ish su35/su30. 200ish su34 (i do believe more will be ordered past 2020.) 180ish or so pakfa. 70ish mig35/29k. total: 100ish migs29/35, 200ish su34, 70ish su27/30, 100ish su35, 50ish su25, 50ish mig31, 180ish pakfa.

Will calculate percentages by generations some other time. 🙂

It is silly to even talk about some real world war scenario. Of course current China, even China in 2025 is too weak for that. Any scenario before 2050. is just pointless when it comes to political power. Sadly, any scenario in 2050. is also pointless from the military, operational and technological viewpoint as there would be just huge number of unknowns by then.

China is getting stronger economically, and political power will stem from that. But its really been just 20 or so years since China emerged as an aspiring economic power. Political power takes a longer time to utilize all that economic power. It will take another generation, 30 or so years, before China makes strong allies throughout the world. US, for example, had about the same GDP in late 1870s (that’s eighteen seventies) as UK, but it was nowhere as influental politically. It kept growing faster than UK all along, and in 1890 it had already 50% bigger GDP than UK, yet I doubt anyone would say it was as powerful politically as UK back then. Perhaps all the way to the beginning of WW1 one could say UK was a bigger player in world politics, even though by 1914. US has already had 82% bigger GDP than the UK.

Thank you for the info. So if 20 years ago it was a valid option for one missile, and it took that long before another missile of similar class entered service, it couldn’t have been because of technical hurdles but because of design choice. If IIR homing was best homing for most missons, we would have seen it proliferate on many more missiles. There are probably pros and cons to active and passive homing which is why even some of tomorrow’s high tech antiship missiles are planned with active radar seekers.

There is little to no difference in flight profile and launch conditions between a hypothetical aircraft carrying subsonic, active seeker antiship missiles and same aircraft carrying supersonic, active seeker missiles. The aircraft itself may have slightly less range, mission wise, due to somewhat heavier/bigger missiles (which, again, don’t need to be a few times bigger. case in point (russian kh31ad and japanese asm3, not really that much bigger than your average harpoon) But we’re still talking single digit differences in range of the aircraft, less so for larger planes in class of su30 or the like.

Also, there is little to no difference in flight profile of hypothetical subsonic, passive seeker antiship missile and hypothetical supersonic, passive seeker missile. The latter MAY perhaps require slightly earlier pop up manouver before terminal phase to decently scan the area and select targets (due to less time to do it, compared to a slower missile). Again, while it may expose itself a few seconds longer in that phase, it will compensate during terminal phase where it will take perhaps 60 seconds less to cross the gap to the target.

As for attacking a larger, spread out task force, of course that is hugely more complex subject. One can either hope to try and coordinate a massive assault from many platforms at the same time, or start picking out most forward assets first with smaller attacks. But that is equally applicable for both subsonic and supersonic missile attacks. if successful, that may cause the enemy’s task force to move away, thus denying more attack opportunities, but at the same time, that also means the sea denial mission has successfuly been performed.