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Vnomad

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,486 through 1,500 (of 2,429 total)
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  • in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2245339
    Vnomad
    Participant

    er… you seem to forget a single little detail, others get their electronic stuff upgraded continuously, are operational and, as of now, the F-35 is pretty much “superior” only to things like the Tucano (mostly because propeller driver stuff can’t catch it).. any operational jet fighter today (even migs 21 and similar stuff) are fast enough to catch the F-35 no matter what it does, and since, as of today, it is pretty much unable to use any real weapon operationally, the F-35 could only try to hide from any armed opponent today, but definitely not fight it.

    This is a lazy argument you’re making here, (albeit an oft-repeated one) and I suspect you know that. Yes it isn’t operational today. So what? The Eurofighter doesn’t have an AESA, but nobody has a problem including the E-Scan in its capability matrix. The Rafale doesn’t have an HMDS, but there’s no problem factoring that into its F3R build. The Gripen E is still in the prototype stage, but no one dismissing it. The vast majority of F-35s delivered to the customers will be in the Block 3F configuration with the remainder upgraded shortly after.

    Fact still remains, the F-22 has dominated air combat exercises primarily because of its VLO airframe & avionics, and less on account of its agility & supercruise.

    so no, if you speak in present (as hopsalot tries to hold on “clear english speaking”), the F-35 isn’t superior to anything even remotely used as a fighter today.

    The ‘present’ only applies to aircraft ordered three years ago. But rather than get bogged down in semantics, I’ll rather rephrase – the F-35A ordered today will be better than the competition by the time its delivered, i.e. by 2017. And yes, any air force expecting to employ it in combat before 2017 should look at other options.

    then, about considering what’s important for a fighter.. over 90% of operational missions of fighters of any airforce are made of air policing. It consists pretty much of intercepting civilians (from GA props like cessnas to airliners) for any reason they might have (navigation problems, technical problems and so on). If, to intercept a cessna, you might consider as sufficient the flying capabilities of a trainer, nothing bar a supersonic fighter that goes and climbs very fast, will be able to catch a liner cruising at 0.84mach and @ 30000+ ft, especially in the case of small countries you try to sell your flying brick.. that reminds me of a quote from a movie: “with the F-4 the USA have proven to the world that a brick could fly, providing you put enough thrust in it…” , well, the F-35 is a second proof of the same idea… it needs a 20t of thrust engine just to manage comparable performance to a modern 4th gen fighter (which does it with half that power, usually)

    The aircraft spends 98% of its life on the ground, so one could extend that logic to argue that the capability to get airborne isn’t essential. And if air policing is your sole concern, there are plenty of cheap light aircraft that are better alternatives than any Eurocanard.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2245619
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The problem is that the Eurocanards (sans the JAS39) were never meant to be affordable light fighters to bulk up NATO numbers. If F-22 is an Audi A8, then Typhoon was meant to be a Lexus GS350. With a car like that you expect to get higher cost… but the nations who were lining up for the F-35 wanted nothing better than a beefed-up VW Golf.. at the cost of a Golf, of course.. what they are getting now is a Passat.. and not a particularly good one.. at the cost of an E-Class Benz, on top of that..

    So what you’re saying is that the EF, Rafale and F-35 are all unaffordable to most, but the former score over the latter in that their unaffordability is by design while the F-35s is by circumstance. The problem with that is the Gripen E, which is an evolution of an affordable light fighter but at $3.5bn for 22 units will not be able to prevent budgets cuts in other segments.

    I take this as a joke.. and not a particularly good one.. how did the F-35 earn such excellent reputation in air combat, BTW?

    Joke? Depends. Did you find thrashing dealt out to older gen aircraft (flown by veteran pilots) by the F-22 funny? Do you think it hammered them primarily because of its VLO capabilities or because it could super-cruise and had TVC? And I put the F-35 as superior in some respects because of its IR sensors, superior sensor fusion and arguably better EW suite.

    Both M-346 and FA-50 are desperately inadequate for air policing… That is exactly the reason why they don’t get a lot of support for that role.. air policing and interception actually require high performance aircraft, with excellent acceleration and rate of climb.. plus agility and maneuvrability… I dare to say that even the F-35 is only borderline adequate for this role..

    1. Would you care to explain what’s so desperately inadequate about the FA-50’s acceleration and rate of climb?
    2. Why is agility and maneuverability so essential for policing civilian traffic?
    3. How are the FA-50 and M-346 lacking in terms of maneuverability?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2245742
    Vnomad
    Participant

    That’s the problem with F-35. It seems to be the view taken by a lot of F-35 proponents that the defence of every country can only be sustained by buying an aircraft whose main virtue lies in its strike capability and which will be far more costly to operate than the aircraft it replaces. Due to the expense goverments will need to

    (a) reduce expenditure on non-F-35 defence items

    (b) procure F-35 in much smaller numbers than its predecessor

    (c) increase the national defence budget by (i) cutting non-defence expenditure (ii) committing to increased taxation or borrowing

    or some combination of (a) or (b) or (c)

    No the problem is that what you state can describe almost every fighter aircraft in production. All of them are or will be more costly to operate than the aircraft they replaced. Cuts would have been necessary even if the F-35 had been replaced by any of the Eurocanards.

    I have to ask: what is so precious about procuring a predominantly strike aircraft to replace predominantly fighter aircraft?

    Only the (upgraded) F-22 remains superior to the F-35 at air combat (and in some respects even that may not apply). Every other fighter is either worse than the F-35, or far worse than the F-35. Depending on how it evolves, the PAK FA might be an exception. We’ll have to wait-and-see on the last count.

    And if an air policing is all that’s required, they’re are plenty of perfectly valid options available, ranging from the M-346 to the FA-50. But for some reason (that I haven’t been able to nail down), those don’t get a lot of support on the forum and thread as alternatives to the F-35.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2245883
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Nothing like making such predictions on an internet forum, where they will be forgotten completely if they are wrong.

    Actually…. Expect a nice fight in Belgium, at least three ways. Poland’s pre-Ukraine plan was to keep the old Russian stuff duct-taped together until (in theory) they could go F-35. Will they now? Spain… You’re out of date, Harriers will remain until 2030. India – Rafale deal has “reportedly been in trouble” for a long time, and F-35 (for now) is a complete non-starter due to indigenization policy.

    I expected a nice fight in Denmark too. I also expected Finland to be a sure thing for SAAB. Poland’s fifth generation plan predates the Ukrainian crisis. Spain will start retiring its Harrier around 2025, which means the replacement should be ordered sometime before. (Its the USMC that is extending AV-8B operations to 2030 AFAIK.) In either case, unless Spain is ready to retire its carrier capability by 2030, an F-35B buy is inevitable. The Rafale’s time-to-obsolescence has been sliced by at least 10 years relative to the time the RFI was drafted and for every day of delay it becomes a less attractive option for India. Its nearly 2015, if they can’t agree to terms or cost, well… there are other (more cost effective) avenues to develop domestic capabilities.

    Speaking of deals in trouble, there’s a fighter out there which claims 800 partner orders, of which 28 have money down after 13 years…

    28 have money down? If we count from the time development started, 12 countries have committed funding after 13 years. Better record than any other fighter on the market. If we count firm orders from the time it became operational, that’s 10 countries, 2 years before IOC. Still a better record than any other fighter on the market.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2245900
    Vnomad
    Participant

    F35 is too expensive for the allocated polish budget. So it is out. I dont set their budget.

    They’ll inevitably revise their budget. They live next door to Russia, they tend to be more pro-NATO than most, and their economy is expected to fair pretty well over the next half decade.

    Switzerland chose Gripen, but didnt agree on the financing. They will buy something in the next 10 years, F35 isnt on the map. Its Rafale or Gripen… or UCAVs.

    They agreed perfectly well on financing, the problem was with public support for the deal. There’s no way in hell they’d be able to sell the Rafale to the public. UCAVs capable of air combat are decades away. If they retire the F-5s without replacement, by the time they need to take a call on the F-18 replacement, the F-35 wouldn’t just be on the map, it’ll be the only aircraft on the map.

    Greece wont afford the F35. They will choose something else.

    They may choose to buy nothing for a long while. But when do get the requisite political and financial capital, the F-35 is bound to be their top choice.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2246035
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Roughly a handful wouldn’t be allowed to buy the F35, most are NATO members or buy western fighters. There are some more but the list is 24 now. The only unprofessional air forces would be Romania ans South Africa due to sh!te politics, but I think the air force personell is quite decent and professional.

    Belgium, Poland & Spain will all operate the F-35.

    Belgium – historical commonality with Netherlands, Denmark, Norway.
    Poland – plans to buy 64 fifth generation fighters
    Spain – Harriers to be replaced by F-35Bs by 2025

    As for the rest, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Venezuela are non starters for political reasons.

    India – Rafale deal is reportedly in trouble; the US may well have started making back-channel overtures. Besides which, the F-35 is a strong contender for a naval contract.
    Greece – No fighters purchases feasible over the short term. When its finances improve (and we’re talking post-2020), they’ll stick with the F-35. The EF T1s will have been disposed off and the T3s out-of-production.

    ______________

    In 2030, the F-35 will be the only western fighter aircraft in production and the inevitable successor to F-16s and Gripen C/Ds, even in the Middle East. The competition will be with the J-31 & PAK FA (and perhaps the KF-X), and in most cases it’ll win out on simple political considerations.

    in reply to: Saab Gripen & Gripen NG thread #3 #2246206
    Vnomad
    Participant

    It would have been fascinating, however, if India had procured Draken fighters. Indian Drakens versus Pakistani Starfighters would have been the stories of legends. Besides, Drakens were always way more sexy than Fishbeds.

    Well… the Starfighter was widely considered a disappointment (if not a failure). IIRC the PAF retired its F-104s long before it benched its F-86s. The Draken was a far superior aircraft. Better than the MiG-21 as well I’d say.

    in reply to: Bunker buster bomb, what if the bunker made from metal #2247544
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The shock wave from a non-penetrating explosion can cause internal damage.

    ERA or APS?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2247967
    Vnomad
    Participant

    As well as getting 36 fighters, Brazil is building a production system for 70+ more domestic aircraft, starting the process of learning to become a high-performance fighter prime, getting lead status in the Latin American market and preparing to build a large proportion of every Gripen sold. Brazil is also getting very easy financial terms that it needs to jump-start military modernization. None of this is secret, so you look rather silly when you ignore it.

    This is assuming Embraer doesn’t receive any separate contracts from the govt for its work, aside from what was included in the value of the contracts signed with Saab. If not, then Saab is selling the Gripen at a substantial discount to Brazil (vis a vis Switzerland).

    In either case, the cost to Switzerland was around $150M each, without (unless it was it was secret) any licensed production. Its silly to assume the Dutch could have bought their (also off-the-shelf) aircraft at half price.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2248017
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The Dutch F-16 replacement budget is adjusted for inflation every year.
    In 2008, SAAB offered 85 Gripen NG aircraft to the RNethAF for a sum (remember inflation-adjustment) that is now thought to be sufficient for 37 F-35 aircraft, while offering 100% offset orders.

    The Gripen E will IOC in 2018, full ten years after that offer was made. Given that the estimates for weight have increased by nearly a ton over what was advertised in 2008, what makes you so confident that the cost would remain unchanged (outside of normal inflation)? And how would explain the unit cost quoted to Switzerland and Brazil being 2.5 times higher? (That corresponds to an inflation rate of 20%.) That differential can hardly be explained by a difference in country-specific requirements for offsets or support.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2248019
    Vnomad
    Participant

    vn – Well, the fact that Sweden, with 55 per cent of the Netherlands’ GDP, can somehow afford 2x as many fighters could be indicative.

    Norway with a GDP smaller than both Sweden and Netherlands is buying 52 F-35s. Germany with a GDP twice as large as all three put together will have a mere 110 fighters operational by 2025.

    in reply to: India successfully launch new GSLV MK3 launch vehicle #2248035
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Nothing to do with ‘Military Aviation’. Suggest you delete and repost it on the IAF thread if you must.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2248289
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The Cloggies have been operating on a largely fixed budget for their fighter program, to the best of my knowledge. They were shown a fixed-price offer for 85 JAS 39Es for that money, but turned it down. The budget has not been reduced, but now buys 37 JSFs instead of the planned 85.

    The 7.1 ton figure for the Gripen E’s weight hasn’t survived six years, I’d be skeptical about the pricing being valid a full decade later.

    As for the Swiss deal: Has anyone here ever produced a valid comparison between one nation’s deal and another’s?

    One could extrapolate from that, that there’s no evidence of the Gripen E being any cheaper than the F-35. Even the Dutch F-35 deal wasn’t signed with the same exact industrial terms and support agreements as offered by Saab.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2248303
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Norway does not really have money problems. IIRC the Norwegian “assessment” that artificially boosted projected life cycle cost of Gripen operation was to demonstrate to decision makers that F-35 was the better aircraft on both performance and cost criteria. End of debate in terms of which of the two to choose, wasn’t it?
    Re: 37 F-35’s, that was for Netherlands. Haven’t checked ny facts here so shoot me down if I’ve got anything wrong. I think they are down to about 60 active F-16’s now due to having to cannibalise aircraft for spares because the replacement is… how can I put it?… just a tad late. Their replacement with an aircraft that will be a quantum leap more expensive to operate will require cuts elsewhere in the armed forces. Had they chosen F-18 or Gripen, they would not have to be thinking of how much to cut the size of their navy and how many bases to close to find the funds to operate F-35.

    Yes the 37 F-35s were for the Dutch, I said as much in my post.

    And again, the offer to the Swiss for 22 Gripen Es was budgeted at $3.5 billion. Only marginally lower per unit than what the Dutch are paying. Even accounting for a far better offset plan, the Gripen E still doesn’t turn out to be super-economical in comparison. So yes, even with the Gripen or SH they’d have been left thinking how much to cut their navy and how many bases to close.

    I believe that the Netherlands is rethinking its entire defence for the coming years in order to fund a first day strike aircraft which is so expensive that only 4 will be available for first day NATO strike operations where the US can easily make 50 times as many available.

    How many Gripens would they have had available at short notice with the same $6bn budget? Five? Six? And the US will still be able to make 40 times as many available on the second day.

    In other words the contribution of Netherlands to NATO operations involving F-35 will be almost entirely insignificant at the cost of a radical restructuring of defence of the Dutch realm.

    The gaping hole in that argument is your advocacy for the Gripen or SH. As opposed to say… the M-346 or FA-50. They could save much money and use it for training as well. And in a NATO mission, once the USAF & Co. has degraded enemy defences, they’d function perfectly well in the strike and CAS missions.

    Utter stupidity to me. But there we go: I’m not American and I don’t see Europe’s role as having to follow what America does when the electorate of most European countries is not prepared to follow the American electorate in funding a large defence budget.

    This has nothing to do with Europe-America. The argument doesn’t change if the (very much American) SH and/or F-15E enter the picture.

    Four European countries on board so far. Denmark will make it five. And the odds are Belgium, Poland, Finland and Spain will follow suit.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2248618
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The figures for Gripen were so seriously twisted in the assessment that the process bordered on false accounting. All in order to find a way to “show” that F-35 was cheaper. If I recall, to get the cost of Gripen up absurd rates of attrition were used etc etc I don’t recall with certainty but I think that hard data from Sweden on Gripen costs was ignored again because the figures did not the scenario required – that F-35 had to appear to be better value. Some of the background arm twisting from the American embassy was also revealed when a certain person called Snowden revealed thousands of embarrassing pieces of confidential data.

    How would you explain the costs quoted to Switzerland for the Gripen E? $3.5bn for just 22 aircraft. The $6bn that the Dutch are spending on the F-35 would buy what.. 45 Gripen Es? Maybe upto 50 aircraft if Saab offers a reduced price.

    While they had to engage in some accounting gymnastics to present the F-35 as cheaper, the RNLAF would still prefer 37 F-35s over a moderately larger order of Gripen Es.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,486 through 1,500 (of 2,429 total)