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Vnomad

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  • in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2252354
    Vnomad
    Participant

    @Blackarcher

    you speak about Reliance, but it’s not about what was built before the deal. The problem is that once the deal has been agreed (meaning tjat it would be the Rafale), HAL was supposed to build a certain number of infrastructures which it failed to do. Relliance would have had to do it as well, were they involved, but as they are not (courtesy of GOI), why would they now build stuff they won’t need?

    Deal has not been ‘agreed’. Until the contract is signed, the whole ‘agreement’ is worthless. HAL wasn’t supposed to build anything as a precondition to signing a contract.

    Second point, GOI want Dassault to be fully liable for the whole thing, yet they do not allow Dassault to control whether HAL does its part as required. Ther’s no company on this planet to have a boss stupid enough to sign such a deal… it would be the best way to bankrupcy. You want somebidy to be luable to get the job done properly? You HAVE to let him do it his way or, at least, let him have control over what is done and the way it’s done.

    First, the company’s maximum liability for a single aircraft will likely only equal the aircraft’s value, though there may be a multiplier element depending on the contract. This ‘unlimited’ liability leading to bankruptcy idea is utter nonsense. This kind of business is something insurance companies do everyday.

    Second, the terms of the deal were spelled out in the RFP. Nobody forced Dassault to participate under the Indian MoD’s terms if it felt they were restrictive. But if it at this point tries to negotiate a better position for itself, its basically a subversion of the contract. EF Gmbh could well argue that they could offer a better price under these new terms.

    Third point: Dassault wants to export the Rafale to make money, bit theydon’t depend on it for that. Their major revenue generator are bizjets. To give you an idea, in the last two years they sold 0 rafales, no exports and no new orders from France, uet, their market share went fromm 600€ a share to over 1000€… that’s 66% increase with absolutely no Rafales sold. They could care less whether India signs tomorrow, or in 5 or 10 years… it’s peanuts in their business.

    The Super Hornet line is a small fraction of Boeing and the Eurofighter line a small fraction of Airbus. No company with a shred of common sense dismisses a $20bn+ order as ‘peanuts’ unless its planning to quit the defence business and layoff its employees working there.

    You can look at it any way you like, Dassault will be kept in fighter business by the french state for years to come, exports or not. During that time, India looses old aircrafts a little more each year…

    now, why would Dassault be in a hurry to sign?

    The Rafale’s been marketed all over the world for over a decade without success and its prospects at this point are pretty bleak, especially with the F-35 finally maturing as an alternative.

    Dassault chief to visit Delhi to discuss delay in MMRCA deal
    French defence minister to visit India amid deadlock in project for 126 Rafale fighters
    French team to visit India to put MMRCA deal on fast track

    What makes you think Dassault is not in a hurry to sign?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2252357
    Vnomad
    Participant

    But…. with the lifetime cost of the program projected at $1.45 trillion, you have just saved exactly 0.0086%. You need another 116 ideas like that to make it up to a 1% saving.

    That’s just about 5% of the $30 trillion+ that the US will spend on defence over the same period (assuming an unchanged annual outlay).

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2252773
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I can spell out the best fit for Canada needs: an affordable long range high performance interceptor,
    made in US and in US service 😎
    …and in case you are unaware, F-35 has neither of these attributes

    And you’d describe the CF-18 as a long range high performance interceptor, would you?

    Would your suggestion for the replacement then be a second hand F-15C, since it fits that bill perfectly? (Probably cheaper than EF T1s.)

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2252786
    Vnomad
    Participant

    It isn’t because you need allthose assets in order to operate the aircraft. What is really flawed is hypothetical flyaway cost which doesn’t allow you to even start up the engine.

    Flyaway costs are the standard apples-to-apples unit of cost comparison for aircraft, but for the sake of argument lets set that aside.

    How would you explain the Swiss cost estimate for the Gripen E; $140M+ per unit for a standard purchase i.e. without any ToT or licensed production? Not that much lower than the $175M being paid by South Korea for the F-35A. The Rafale was reportedly priced in Switzerland at about $160M/unit in 2011, or nearly $170M/unit today. Again, marginal gap with the F-35 (and easily bridged as production ramps up).

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2252848
    Vnomad
    Participant

    er, show me where I said the F-35 would be too “high end”…

    it is a modern version of the F-105, meaning not too “high end”, but too “other stuff” than what Canada needs.

    Too ‘high-end’ is implied in your description of conflict with Russia as laughable and paranoid. How about you spell out what you think Canada needs?

    From the first hand testers, it accelerates like a pig in transsonic (compared to stuff that’s been flying for the last 40 years), has quite a low top speed for an supposed interceptor and, overall, the only category in which it brings something others don’t is shape stealth (which others achieve through other means anyway)

    From the first hand testers, it accelerates like a F-16 with a centre-line tank in the transonic regime, and as well as a clean F-16 in the subsonic regime.

    So; what I’m saying is that Canada should have an open competition and let the candidates go on and show what they really can propose (not powerpoint slides and promisses but real aircraft capabilities) and decide then what’s best for them

    The RCAF/MoD will then promptly come out with an RFP that includes – a long range radar, highly capable EW system, a highly directional datalink compatible with allied (read:US) aircraft and a VLO airframe. All parties welcome to contest.

    Only Lockheed Martin shows up. Back to square one.

    Dassault could argue that a LO airframe is unnecessary, but with two dozen countries investing in them (including ironically Dassault itself) nobody’s likely to pay any heed.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2253382
    Vnomad
    Participant

    = insoluble impasse?

    Next month will make it three full years since the Rafale was declared the preferred bidder. Each side was probably waiting for the other party to crack. The MoD now has a frantic IAF tugging on its hem, on the other hand Rafale’s export prospects have never looked weaker for Dassault. Can’t say either side has ended up with improved leverage. All the same, going by history the Indian MoD will probably buckle.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2253461
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I have been involved is setting up a number of businesses with other participants. Personally I could not get involved if I had deep reservations about the abilities of the other(s) involved. I can understand Dassault’s concern in going into partnership on Rafale assembly with a party which it sees as ill equipped to do its bit to make the scheme work.

    IMO an inability to monitor HAL’s facilities would present a grave risk to Dassault.

    IMO Dassault is not going to enter into this contract because out of the goodness of its heart it wants to help India build Rafales. It will sign the contract with a view to making a substantial profit. Asking Dassault to cover liabilities incurred by a partner whose facilities are not open to Dassault for inspection increases the risk of profits being lost. One response to a higher risk of your profit being compromised is to increase your profit margin.

    AFAIK the terms of the deal were all spelled out in the RFP. Dassault knew the risks when it decided to participate and probably quantified them as an insurance markup on its bid. But to try and renegotiate the terms after being selected for exclusive negotiations will obviously be unacceptable to the Indian MoD.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2253462
    Vnomad
    Participant

    We got to understand something: it’s a 100% Transfert of Technology offer.

    The Livefist article makes it quite clear that its not a 100% ToT situation. The last 60 aircraft will be <90% made-in-India, and the first 48 would have a significantly lower percentage of locally manufactured content. It appears to be operating on the same model as the HAL’s Su-30MKI program (albeit accelerated).

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2253473
    Vnomad
    Participant

    When I read, for example, guys stating that Canada HAS to buy the F-35 as the only solution because of Russian bombers that would come, being escorted by PAK-FAs… it’s laughable to say the least. and that’s just one example where totally paranoid way of thinking brings an imaginary justification to the humongous spending for newest systems.

    I find it doubly hilarious that some folks find the F-35A too high-end for Canada’s very basic air policing requirements but are still plugging away for Rafales/SHs that will only be marginally cheaper to buy (if at all).

    If showing the Canadian flag in NATO joint operations or in the Artic region was all that was needed for the next 40 years, an AJT would have served just fine (built under license no less), or refurbished F-15C/Ds for something more muscular.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255732
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Thanks,that’s what I thought. Do you perhaps know if the external ASRAAM situation is to be rectified or does it not fit into the US list of priorities at this stage.

    Not a priority. A pilot will always want to avoid a WVR engagement if he can, but even more so in F-35’s early years when there are plenty of supporting F-15s and F-16s (and EFTs) around to enter the merge but relatively fewer F-35s available to act as force multipliers.

    Strikes me that there is a very long way to go till F35 is carrying Stormshadow. Feels a little like plans for the GR9 to do the same……

    No hurry. Storm Shadow employment isn’t called for very often, and when it is the RAF will have EF T3s available that can do the job. EF integration was delayed so long for the same reason (Tornados were available). It will probably be integrated on the F-35B eventually, but probably only after the UAI is certified.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255735
    Vnomad
    Participant

    There have been mockups with internal ASRAAM carriage in place of the ejector launched AIM-120s. I don’t know how LOAL would be accomplished.

    LOBL wouldn’t be possible, but why would LOAL be an issue? The lack of a data-link does make achieving a high pk harder, compared to the DAS guided Aim-9X, but in principle, its no different from a LOAL launch from a Typhoon (though the launch would take slightly longer than firing it hot off a rail).

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255739
    Vnomad
    Participant

    .
    Vnomad, you are correct that a full squadron can be potentially operational by 2018 but I understood it was not planned to fly any planes off QE until 2020….unless this plan is accelerated or the USMC invited to use the QE to forestall any embarrassment of an empty ship

    IOC for the ship wouldn’t be declared before 2020, but the plan still is to begin flight operations by 2018. They’ve also had UK teams training for carrier ops on the USS Wasp, so a core of experienced sailors/airmen will probably be available as well.

    Also, having the USMC use the carrier sounds more embarrassing than flying RAF/RN helicopters off it, so I doubt that’s a factor.

    _______________

    In April 2018, 617 Sqn will transfer its aircraft and personnel back to RAF Marham in Norfolk, UK, and in December 2018 the UK will declare initial operating capability – land (IOC – Land) for its F-35B force. A yet-to-be-designated operational conversion unit is expected to be stood up at RAF Marham in 2019.

    The second F-35B unit for the UK has been named as 809 ‘Immortals’ Naval Air Squadron (NAS). Despite their separate Royal Air Force and Royal Navy identities, both 617 Sqn and 809 NAS will be operated as combined units, with a mix of service personnel and pilots.

    In 2018, operations from the first of the UK’s Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers will commence, with a full operating capability (land and maritime) for the F-35B set to be declared in 2023. A decision on whether both carriers will be fielded will be announced in the Strategic Defence and Security Review [SDSR] in 2015. While the programme of record remains at 138 aircraft, no firm numbers will be announced until the SDSR in 2015.

    http://www.janes.com/article/33540/uk-to-approve-bulk-f-35b-buy-in-2017

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255898
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I assume the article reference to RAF F35As is utter rubbish then? And I assume no one knows whether UK specific weapons are to be hung under the wings or whether they have been properly integrated then?

    Utter rubbish. The editor may have confused it with the Italian plan. Paveway IV testing will likely be for internal carriage. ASRAAMs are definitely external.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255908
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Few weeks ago I have clearly proven that this was not true. Defense inflation was fairly similar to regular inflation while aerospace sector was visibly BELOW the regular figures.

    I haven’t seen that post.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (3) #2255910
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Once the flip-flopping was over and the F35B decided on instead of the F35C, it’s the only show in town. Asking the USMC to use the carrier is I suppose one way to cover the embarrassment of otherwise having a ship costing billions sailing around empty (filling it with helicopters don’t count) while we wait a few years for the air wing to arrive and as you say the crew can get their feet under the table early (by a few years!) ready for mastering shipboard operations.

    By the time the ship is commissioned in 2017, the UK should have two thirds of a squadron available (assuming the aircraft at Eglin relocate to the UK). The first full squadron will be available by 2018, if a second batch of 4 units is ordered next year.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,516 through 1,530 (of 2,429 total)