dark light

Vnomad

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 15 posts - 856 through 870 (of 2,429 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196896
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Those are assembly lines, a role devolved exclusively to HAL as per contract, so no TaTa there.
    Anyway, TaTa or others proposal if any at all may have been much less attractive ,did not suit Dassault, or they did not even bother , having other plan with Saab or else.Yet again non of the local actors had any more experience in producing composite wings , and were probably much less willing to make the necessary investments.

    Assembly lines aside, which component of which weapon system has Reliance built to date? What expertise does it have with regard to composites let alone composite wings?

    In the end it was Dassault decision ,Dassault liability to make it function, it conformed to ToT and offset, it was sanctioned by the government.So not totally sure where this debate is leading us and what this is supposed to demonstrate if anything.
    ToT is more effective on open minded than on those who thinks that with their experience they know better and are reluctant to adapt their process or invest in pricey equipment, thinking their own will have to do.

    This debate is leading up to the simple fact that Reliance was selected over half a dozen companies (that would have provided Dassault professionalism, experience and a proven track record), because of its political connections and because it would give Dassault more room to cook the books when it came to offsets (unlike Tata & Co. that would have pressed for genuine workshare).

    And still no, offset percent on contract value is not the customer funding local economy, it is the supplier agreeing to sell its product and re-invest its revenues in local economy, so the money is out of suppliers pocket, while, the customer enjoy the product he bought.

    Lol. You make offsets sound like a special favour the company is doing to the customer, not something that its legally obligated to do under the terms of the contract, which it bid for in an open contest and which it financed by hiking up the cost to the customer. Ignoring the fact that offsets are pretty standard practice in most arms sales in the world (apart from the Middle East).

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196933
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Here’s Tata’s production supplying to:

    1. Lockheed Martin

    http://i.imgur.com/a1gkG5z.jpg

    2. Sikorsky

    http://www.thehindu.com/multimedia/dynamic/01503/HY01TATASKY_1503406g.jpg

    3. RUAG (Dornier)

    http://i.imgur.com/uoQIFGT.jpg

    _____________________________________________

    But you’re telling me, with a straight face, that where a $25 billion+ contract requiring deep ToT assimilation, was involved, Dassault chose to partner with zero-experience Reliance and that everything was still above board?

    This despite the fact that Reliance defence subsidiary came into existence only in 2011… just before the Rafale was declared the contract winner.

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196937
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Your are confusing producing parts for fighter plane with building a fighter plane.

    Reliance has core competencies in neither. Or anything else even remotely related.

    Besides as made plainly obvious by the HAL projected cost , HAL labor intensive process , notably on composite parts was not adequate. So no for that domain it appear there was no local manufacturing experience of relevance.
    No not all money was to come from Indian gov, there was offsets to the MMRCA, hence a big part , 30% as I recall, of money earned by Dassault that was to be re-invested locally. Best used where you can expect some benefit out of it. Hence a partnership to, build locally rafale’s wing with a local industrial offer unique opportunities to conform with ToT, indian made and offset requirements, with the prospect of establishing a long term alternate supply source you have some control over.

    The offsets were not be financed by Dassault. Or by its local partner. The funding was coming solely from the Indian state, with Dassault only directing where its spent locally.

    Not that Reliance is not totally new to the defense domain. Its Reliance defense limited branch , notably partnering on maintenance of airframes amongst other things.

    Do tell. What exactly have they achieved so far?

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196950
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Just been researching a bit about the private sector, specifically on Western companies partnering with Indian ones. Four main names repeatedly pop up –

    Boeing – Tata
    Lockheed Martin – Tata
    Sikorsky – Tata
    IAI – Tata
    Finmeccanica – Tata
    RUAG – Tata
    Airbus – Tata

    BAE – Mahindra
    Airbus/Eurocopter – Mahindra

    Airbus/Cassidian – Larsen & Toubro
    Nexter – Larsen & Toubro

    Elbit – Bharat Forge
    Rafael – Bharat Forge

    Some of them are also involved in low level subcontracting for the majors. Eg – Mahindra Plans to Supply Airbus, Boeing Parts From India Plant

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196963
    Vnomad
    Participant

    If a local industry come to you with the budget and will to expand its operations into the aerospace domain high end composites parts, while you assessed there are no local equivalent.

    ‘Come to you with the budget and will’?? And what.. they fell in love? Are you saying there was no other company in India that was better suited to co-produce a fighter jet than Reliance?

    Then you can indeed look into a partnership. Whether that industry is primarily oil, car, fish or whatever,since in any case you would start from scratch. Hence this is more a matter of money than readily available experience.
    If such partner happens to have experience in fiber and textile manufacture this is an additional boni It may be convenient for certain to portray this partnership as an attempt to, substitute entirely HAL ,or what not, but I have not seen any evidence of that. From a pure technological and business aspect , Reliance , since that’s who we are talking is as good ,possibly better, candidate as any for providing composite parts. Considering it’s willingness to invest , the readiness for a joint venture ,and the fact that contact with Dassault existed earlier, It would have been poor judgment to ignore their offer.

    ‘Experience in fiber and textile’ = ‘experience in composites’ = ‘ideal contender to built fighter jets’. :confused:

    Money was (supposed to be) coming from the Indian govt’s coffers. Hardly excludes all the other companies that had genuine engineering and manufacturing experience.

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2196967
    Vnomad
    Participant

    You have to remember that Dassault comes from a country where public companies are viewed as second class, so there is a natural reticence to lower oneself when you’re a very very proud company…

    No what I mean is even if it were determined to partner with a private sector entity (RFP be damned) – why Reliance?

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2197005
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I do not totally share your analysis. If HAL was indeed the only player worth ,there would be no point to single it out as non-negotiable prime contractor, it would be a natural actor. This only granted them all the latitude to dictate the organizational layout and select process ,against best advises ,as they saw fit for their business without any liabilities.
    Imposing contractually state owned primary subcontractor would be ok if it was not assorted with the accountability on the final product, when Dassault had not control whatsoever over their doings.
    The last minute makeshift of authorizing Dassault to conduct some quality control out of the HAL blackbox lines, was just that a makeshift for a massive deadlock, with yet an associated additional cost.

    If its your case that Dassault was negotiating in good faith and its decisions were based purely on technical-commercial issues, perhaps you could explain why, for the Rafale production, it chose to partner up… with an oil company?

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197188
    Vnomad
    Participant

    With basic surrounding systems and some simulators etc 55-65m$. Source : Just check all the offers given to many country’s in the past that where normal offers like the dutch one.)( Dutch airforce went from 85 gripens to 37 f-35’s.)

    Duly checked. And the only country for which the cost of an off-the-shelf acquisition for an export customer is available (with any degree of transparency), is Switzerland. $3.3 billion for 22 aircraft ~ $150 million.

    http://i.imgur.com/AxcHr0L.jpg
    http://i.imgur.com/lfRXurS.jpg

    The idea that Netherlands could have gotten 85 Gripen Es on that same budget is nonsensical.

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2197494
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Here the process sounds quiet off, making demands, requiring airframes at FAF price, 50% offset, adding new customization, guarantees etc and then telling in the end that no matter what it should be less than 10 billions. Should have started with what can we get for 10 billions. Would have save time.

    They could’ve opened that question to the floor (i.e. all available suppliers). Might have gotten them a better price.

    But as usual, lets wait and see. Beside it is not the first time the DM play the tuff loose canon, making big statement to the press. One would have to remember he did similar stunt for MMRCA which led to the PM short cutting him. So now that his PM had worked out a gov to gov agreement guaranteeing airframes at FAF price in flyaway condition, he single handily got the budget to explode by adding new demands .So yes he might be in a tight spot there and implying supplier responsibility as he did for MMRCA to hide dysfunction in the procurement process under his responsabilty.

    As I recall, his ‘loose cannon stunt’ enabled him to quite successfully kill off the unaffordable MMRCA deal. Far from ‘short-cutting’ him, the PM merely signed an MoU (not an agreement) for a hugely truncated consolation prize for Hollande. And if Parrikar manages to get the current plan junked, he’ll probably be working in synch with the IAF, which isn’t too enthusiastic about this new deal.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197505
    Vnomad
    Participant

    No but when will Tejas Mk1 be produced in numbers? Although a perfectly good replacement for MiG-21, it seems to have very modest capabilities. That’s why a Mk2 version was proposed, wasn’t it? IAF may consider Gripen E as a very good substitute for Tejas Mk2 with an earlier (and more reliable) IOC. In partnership with SAAB a more capable light fighter than Tejas Mk1 could be produced without near indefinite delays. Either Gripen E or Tejas Mk2, with SAAB TOT. If India does not have the know how to develop Tejas Mk2, I think AMCA is a distant dream.

    Produced in numbers from 2018, I think. Which is still years before any domestically assembled Gripen E will be available. For most run-of-the-mill missions its more than sufficient; it can lase a target, employ PGMs, radar is decent (esp. EL/M-2052), Derby ER/Astra 2 give it a 100km+ reach, data-links allow pairing with the heavy Su-30s or supporting AEW&CS, and with the DASH-Python 5 combo it can hold its own in any dogfight. How much capability do you expect from an aircraft costing $25 mil flyaway?

    This, for the record, is exactly the market that Saab will find hard to compete in, as it moves up the value chain, from a modest light weight fighter to an advanced medium weight fighter.

    Yes, more Su-30MKI can be built but that does not fix the need for a good light fighter and a good medium fighter. SH would be the cheapest medium fighter to manufacture, I think. The redundant tooling to make it should be available in 2/3 years, so that should be much cheaper than setting up with new tooling. Cheaper to operate than Rafale and Typhoon, too.

    There’ll already be a good light fighter in full production long before any of the above can start deliveries to India. Hankering after a medium fighter (just because of its weight) doesn’t make sense, unless its genuinely cheaper to acquire than the Su-30, which isn’t the case for any of them (including the Gripen E).

    Which leaves the question of capability. Yes there are some missions that the IAF’s current fleet would struggle to perform within a tolerable level of risk (even after upgrades). Eg – SEAD/DEAD against new gen threats, OCA in the presence of hostile AWACS, deep strike/recce and so on. There is an aircraft explicitly designed for such high-threat environments but it isn’t the Gripen E. Or the Super Hornet.

    Long delays: yes. How long to get an affordable medium fighter into local production with SH?

    Hard to say. The SH assembly line can’t be moved until production ceases which should be in 2019 (assuming the Congress’ pushes ahead with supplementary orders). Add in another 2-3 years to move it, train new workers and I’d say 2022 earliest. With fighters delivered 2024 onwards. And that’s an optimistic assessment. The whole process is likely to get bogged down at the first stage itself – where they need pick between the SH, F-16 & Gripen. Much simpler just to upgrade and build more Sukhois.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197654
    Vnomad
    Participant

    If they might go for retiring F-16’s, why not surplus Gripen C’s? Seems to be what Slovakia may do (but OK, that gives commonality with Czech Republic fighters)?

    They’re fewer in number and aren’t available with the variety of upgrade options that the F-16C/Ds offer.. but yes, Gripen Cs should be viable too.

    You say India already has the cost effective Tejas. 2+ years since IOC was declared the IAF has a grand total of zero and it is still in the throes of development. It sounds like Tejas Mk2 will not be around for close on a decade (if at all) so I can see a Gripen production facility in India if Mk2 is shelved or cancelled. I can also see a SH line if Rafale remains too expensive. Both companies could provide TOT useful to AMCA. I don’t see F-35 being built in India.

    So.. are you saying that because its not been produced in numbers over the last two years, it’ll never be produced in numbers? Also, how many years will it take to set up a Gripen E production facility in India? Never-mind the fact that IOC for the Gripen E is scheduled for 2023. And why forget the Su-30MKI – there’s a squadron a year production that can be extended much further (with high domestic content). And the question will that point will be why Gripen, why not the SH, why not the F-16? Why any of them? Result: long delays.

    None of them are going to be built in India. That’s what the now-dead MMRCA was for. In each case, the actual domestic input will at best consist of various degrees of assembly. And in that context, a F-35 FACO line is still very doable. Plus there’s the availability of the B-variant for the IN’s STOBAR carriers.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197687
    Vnomad
    Participant

    what are “all the performance upgrades” you are referring to?

    Everything required to bridge the gap with its larger siblings – increased payload, increased range, AESA, GaN-based EW system, sensor fusion, IRST etc.

    I think it’s difficult to predict Gripen E costs at this point in time; it really depends on how many customers they manage to get by the time Finland is doing the evaluation. Due to Brazil now being a partner in the Gripen project, there is a good chance that several South American countries will go for Gripen E. There are also several opportunities in Asia, of which the biggest would be India. If India decides to go for Gripen, it could change things, in particular when it comes to upgrade costs.

    The only South American countries in the market for a fighter jet over the coming decade are Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, none of which have the budget for something like the Gripen E. They’ll go either for a cheap type like the FA-50 or JF-17, or second-hand fighters (most likely retiring F-16s).

    India again is a very long shot. They’ve already got two types of cost-effective workhorses in the Tejas and Su-30MKI. The govt. will find it hard to justify a Gripen E acquisition without some sort of competition (SH? Viper?), which will inevitably take years to finalize (MMRCA redux), and is therefore something they’ll want to avoid. The only aircraft that they can justify as a single-vendor purchase is ironically the F-35 itself, offering capabilities (read: stealth) not currently available from other sources.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197759
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I think you’ve misunderstood the term “bang for the buck”.

    The current and most recent unit cost for the LRIP F-35A is $94.8 million [excluding the engine]. And that’s without any specific national requests. It has gone down from the LRIP 1 prices, as expected, but it’s not close to its target goal.

    Try $94.3 million with the engine. Unit recurring flyaway cost for 2016. Well on course to achieve the target goal (<$85 mil by 2019).

    In fact, if the plan for the block buy goes ahead, they could probably bring the cost in below $80 mil. The Gripen E will of course beat that figure but not by a huge margin, not with all the performance upgrades planned. The F-35 CPFH estimate was about 28% higher than the F-16C/D (in same weight class as the Gripen E), and that’s from when the oil prices were still sky high (and thanks to the shale revolution they’re unlikely to ever go up that high again).

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2197784
    Vnomad
    Participant

    I agree it sounds strange, OTOH it also sounds a bit strange that the US would not have some “back-door” or something else to allow them at least some control, these are extremely potent weapons.

    Remember what happened in e.g. Iran; The shah bought some very sophisticated fighter jets (at that time) which after the revolution were controlled and operated for quite some time by the new rulers.

    If your relationship with the US is one where there’s even a possibility of actual sabotage (deliberately placing your soldiers & pilots in harm’s way), then the F-35 isn’t the aircraft for you. Fortunately, this doesn’t apply to any of the countries the F-35 is being sold or marketed to.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2197791
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Why do data have to be transferred to the USA? I don’t understand the need to shift data around in this manner (from country A to USA then from USA to country A) to update mission data files. It would be much simpler to do local updates.

    When you’re sending a $100 mil fighter and its crew, into a high threat environment, you want its threat libraries and heuristic algorithms to be as effective as possible. The US has the widest, most intensive sigint/techint collection program in the world. You get access to that through the F-35 one hand while the program gets access to new data detected by your operational aircraft. A symbiotic relationship.

    But the idea that the aircraft is crippled if this doesn’t happen on a sortie-by-sortie basis or that the relevant data is conveyed through commercial telecom networks, is beyond absurd.

    Addition: let’s imagine that Turkey operates F-35’s. Turkey chooses to strike a neighbouring country. USA does not want that to happen. Is Turkey certain to get the mission data file updates it needs to conduct strikes to which the US government is opposed?

    Even if they don’t receive an update on time, Turkish F-35s will still have no problems striking their target. It will have little short term impact. (To stick with the Apple analogy – updating your iPhone/iMac every month instead of every day doesn’t stop it from working properly now does it?)

Viewing 15 posts - 856 through 870 (of 2,429 total)