Vnomad$8bn deal for 36 Rafales? would love to see what’s included in it and then compare…
Includes everything – maintenance, training, weapons and offsets. There’s no permutation/combination that would make that price comfortable. And we can compare it to the F-35’s (also comprehensive) offer to South Korea (BIO posted the details earlier).
for having lived in Belgium, I can tell you two things: the biggest part of population isn’t francophone and there’s quite a hard rivalry between the two communities.. so chances are that being french, the Rafale starts with a bigger handicap in Belgium than it would in many european countries.
Well the strongest push for the Mirage F1 among the EPG quartet came from Belgium. To put it differently, its the least pro-US of all the markets contested so far. If the Rafale were to get an export order anywhere in Europe, its most likely to get it from Belgium.
The second, I could quote a buddy of mine (belgian guy): “Belgium is a country in the heart of Europe, sponsored by the USA” …
Home to Brussels, where the EU is headquartered. Its as European as they come (aside from France of course). More so than Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Poland.
BTW does this mean your money’s on the F-35 in Belgium? What about Finland? Non-NATO, EU member, plus Eurozone member. If they don’t go for the Gripen, the Rafale should have a strong chance?
Edit: Just been reading about the whole Flemish-Walloon divide. Astounding stuff. Makes the English & Scots seem downright brotherly. Though I expect language is a bigger barrier than… accents, I suppose.
VnomadYeah, I just posted that to illustrate the last point – the latest LRIP will cost a fraction as much to upgrade. A customer ordering an aircraft today doesn’t have to worry too much about concurrency. Even $10 mil or so to bring the currently operational units upto standard isn’t really that steep.
VnomadHave you not noticed that over the course of the F-35 program, deadlines and promised functionality have failed to be achieved? It’s almost like trying to reach a mirage – as you get closer, it moves into the distance again. A chracteristic it shares with the HAL Tejas.
Another thing they both have in common is that, for all their trials and tribulations, they deliver value on investment. A stealth fighter at the cost of a 4.5 gen type. And a 4th gen fighter at the cost of a high-end AJT.
The F-35 will IOC this year on schedule. With this and that missing or some characteristics being sub-optimal and other niggles, but the target will be met. Full capability is scheduled for 2017. Putting in a in a full year of cushion, 2018 is a perfectly reasonable expected date. But even if the tail-end of concurrency delays it by an additional year to 2019, its still a more worthwhile option. Its first day strike capability may not be as valuable to smaller NATO members but for the IAF it’ll be invaluable. And such an acquisition would also function as a hedge against further delays in the PAK FA project.
VnomadThat is the price of concurrency for all US aircraft (and possibly foreign aircraft as well) not just the B’s. The USAF will have the bulk share of that cost since it has the most amount of aircraft at the moment. Also concurrency change is not linear across production batches. A 2014 production aircraft, will require very little concurrency changed compared to a 2011 production aircraft and this will ultimately fade out by 2017 or 2018 as was reported by insidefense.com quoting the program boss. The program has been introducing concurrency changes i.e. things found during testing into production batches whenever possible.
VnomadYou cannot even be sure of that. IAF operates types for decades. Nothing to indicate the relativeky new Phalcons wont be flying 20 years from now and being part of yet another type in the IAF
Except in the late 60s and mid 80s, the IAF has never had the access to the level of funding that it has today (relatively speaking). But assuming the airframe is that durable, when will the PAF be retiring its relatively new Il-78s? Because it too appears to have three different types of aircraft for force multiplier roles – Saab 2000, Y-8, Il-76. [IAF: ERJ-145, Il-76, A-330]
Vnomadit won’t have its full capabilities nowhere near 2018, you can bet on that, and once the price becomes somewhat comparable (if one doesn’t want to be in the first customers and pay a heavy premium to get his aircraft, years will pass and 2030 won’t be far away
I should bet on that based on what? The Block 3F is scheduled for release in 2017. Which means in 2018, it’ll be available to full spec. And there’s no logical reason why a software patch would cost a ‘heavy premium’.
fact is, it is still in testing phase, software and hardware have to be made to work as expected, and by the time you get there, others will have moved forward as well( they are moving al the time), how big the advantage in various departments over a Rafale will be once it’s in service still remains to be seen, and by the time we get to compare each other in operational service, my bet is that you’ll see the “pro-F35 crowd” who’ll come around saying “yeah, but it’s not the final version, in reality it is a killer, just wait for it to be finished, so it will obliterate at will any 4th gen opponent… blah blah blah…” (my bet is that by 2020 and for some time beyond we’ll still read such things around here)
– The F-22 IOCed in 2005. So if there’s anybody with a hard start, its LM. And no leap forward for the Rafale will ever grant it VLO capability.
– Since, the program was reset, its stuck to the timelines plus minus a few months. There’s no reason to believe the Block 3F will not be ready by 2018. (But in all honesty even if the IAF had to wait till 2019, it would be worth it.)
– At the same (or even) similar cost, a good chunck of the anti-F-35 crowd would go with the F-35 over the Rafale (diff. equation vis a vis the Gripen E).
just like they came back, once it appeared it was nowhere near its price goals “yeah, but nobody sane could have believed it would be cheap..” after claiming it would respect it for years…
Well… jaws dropped when the costs recent Rafale deals were announced. And $8 billion for a 36 Rafale package is a figure that plenty are coming to see as ‘insane’.
anyway, only time will tell
How about you make a prediction? Begium, arguably the most Francophone nation in Europe – F-35 or Rafale?
VnomadSo you are agreeing with me? IAF will operate 3 different types of AWACS?
Two types in the near future: A-50I & ERJ-145I. Two types in the distant future: A-330 & ERJ-145I.
VnomadSo what you are saying is that the IL-76s will definately not be ordered and the remaining 3 retired soon? You know this for certain do you or are you just making things up as you go along here?
Nothing is retiring ‘soon’. Nor is the replacement coming ‘soon’. There are over half a dozen Il-76s still serviceable and they’ll be flogged at least to 2020. The A-50s & Il-78s will persist well into the next decade as well. No new Il-76s orders have been reported by the press.
VnomadYou are now going backwards on yourself. I mentioned the IL-76s then you said they would only have C-17s and C-130s in your post. You are actually making my points for me now as you seem to be losing track of your own argument.
The C-17 will be replacing the Il-76. What part of that are you finding hard to comprehend? The IAF currently has greater airlift capability with 10 C-17s than it did in 1988 with 17 Il-76s.
Very simply, with over 5 major transport types, and 3 different AWACs types (you yourself mentioned G550 Phalcon, A330 and Embrear) you are making my point.
The IAF fleet is probably the least cost effective and efficient in terms of the numbers it has and the servicablity and availability of aircraft and crew simply down to the sheer number of types, which is going against a world wide trend of decreasing type numbers. The IAF is actually going in the opposite direction.
What I actually said was there is no signed contract for follow-on Phalcons (neither G550 nor IL-76 based). Currently there are two types (A-50I, ERJ-145), and in the future there’ll be two types (A330, ERJ-145; both widely operational civilian aircraft). And having two different types of special mission aircraft isn’t unique – the UK for example employs a 707-based solution for AEW&C (E-3D) & ISTAR (RC-135) but for tanking employs the A-330.
As for transport, most major air forces have multiple types operational:
US: C-5, C-17, C-130, C-27
China: Y-8, Y-9, Y-20, Il-76
Russia: An-124, Il-76, An-72, An-24, An-12
UK: C-17, A400M, C-130J
France: A-400M, C-130, C-160, CN-235
Turkey: A-400M, C-130, C-160, CN-235
Vnomadwhy? maybe because it works and is available now, compared to “maybe will work and be available somewhere by 2030”?
Its one thing to mild exaggerate for effect, but… 2030? More like IOCes in less than six months and will be available with full capability around 2018 (same as the F3R).
Point is, with the Rafale they know what they get, while with the F-35 it’s still work in progress, uncertain of what will it really be able to do or how it will perform compared to others (Rafale included) as they keep improving all the time as well
Now you’re just being obdurate. There’s no need a great deal of real world feedback to know that the F-35 is a VLO design while the Rafale is not. As for rest; radar, EW, MMI, sensor fusion, propulsion etc we already have a proof of technology in the F-22. And with the US, UK, Netherlands, Norway, Italy, Turkey, Japan, South Korea and Israel committed, with Singapore & Denmark soon to follow, there’s no ‘uncertainty’ around the project. Its future is as secure as can be.
Whenever the option of the F-35 was mooted in the past, the downside offered by most of our French commentators was always that ToT was essential, and the F-35 was too far into the future. Well its mid-2015 now, the ‘future’ is the ‘present’, and ToT has gone out the window. That leaves the cost as the only downside, and if we go by recent deals as well as the estimates attached to the Indian offer, the gap between the two aircraft is insignificant (esp. after factoring in a far cheaper US munitions complement).
VnomadWhy buy AMCA when you have access to F-35A at partnership level?
I imagine for the same reason the TF-X, KF-X and ATD-X are being developed. Probably better reason seeing as India isn’t a US ally.
For India a better question would be, with the ToT angle discarded, why buy the Rafale in 2015 when you can buy the F-35. That institutional inertia is where the bureaucracy reveals itself to be lacking in both flexibility and vision.
VnomadWhat about the An-32? Around 100 that are undergoing upgrade?
It’ll be around for long long time still. With the C-295 being produced locally, when the retirement stage does eventually come around, the An-32 will be replaced by more C-295s (same payload class). Originally, it was expected to be replaced by the MTA but for better or worse that project is now all but dead.
VnomadYup, more pie in the sky statements. In Vnomads world the IAF’s entire Heavy and Medium transport fleet will consist of just 10 C-17s and 12 C-130s…
As opposed to the dozens of Il-76s its operates today? :rolleyes:
VnomadAgain, y
ou seem to be making facts up to suit your argument.
MIG-29 upgrade in India not even started yet, so will probably end around 2020 (being very optimistic!) and according to this report will serve 10-15 years. So possibly up to 2035
Perhaps you ought to start by examine your own facts. The first MiG-29UPG was delivered by Russia in 2012. Its service life has been extended by 1000 hours or about 10 years at a very modest rate of usage (allowing for an overhaul). Push that limit further and the first batch will still run out service life around 2025.
Also FYI the first locally upgraded MiG-29 started check flights three months ago.
IAF will just rely on 10 C-17s for it’s entire heavy airlift?
10+3 = 13 C-17s. Even the existing fleet of 10 C-17s delivers far greater net airlift capacity then its legacy fleet of 17 Il-76s.
Report on purchase of 2 more Phalcon AEW aircraft below, so again, it’s 3 types., not 2.
The proposal to supplementary units has been around for years but hasn’t moved past the draft stage (and even there IIRC the Israelis were pushing for a cheaper G550 based solution). We’re talking about contract worth $1 billion; if it gets signed, it’ll be widely reported in the media without any need to pore through fine print.
VnomadThe IAF is literally right in the middle of upgrading Jaguars and Mig-29s. They all will not be upgraded for another few years then you claim they will all be retired straight away?
How does ‘starting in 2025’ translate into ‘straight away’?
Likewise they just ordered 2 more Phalcon Il-76 planes. These may very well enter service the same time as the A330s
No such order has been reported by the media.
India will have the largest variety of fighters and transports of any nation, including US, Russia and China.
– Both the PLAAF and IAF will have the same number of fighter types in service (the former might have more depending on variations among the Flanker derivatives).
– The IAF’s transport fleet is consolidating on three types (Heavy: C-17, Medium: C-130J, Light: C-295). Or four types, in unlikely event that the MTA development in sanctioned. Tanker & AWACS roles – A330 & ERJ-145.
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