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Vnomad

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,411 through 1,425 (of 2,429 total)
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  • in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2223123
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Plane cost. Spares. Simulators. Training. Maintenance. Lets wait to have included items to check at isoperimeter.

    I wasn’t being sarcastic if that’s what you thought. An acquisition cost of $170M is somewhat on the higher side but still broadly on expected lines, unlike the Gripen E for example, which at all inclusive unit cost of $130-150M was pricier than (at least I) expected. The Rafale’s unlikely to be a lot cheaper on acquisition than the F-35A (also around $150-160M, albeit including offsets) but I think most folks have already accepted that. In any case, that’s a discussion for another time.

    Congrats again to Dassault.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2223152
    Vnomad
    Participant

    So that’s a unit acquisition cost of €150 million. Or $170 million at the current exchange rate. Not too bad really.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2223176
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Congratulations. I wouldn’t have thought Egypt could swing the $6.5bn+ needed in the prevailing global economy but clearly I was wrong.

    Any chance we could get a price estimate on the Rafale from the deal?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223376
    Vnomad
    Participant

    the problem (another one) with the F-35 is that the financial gains for any partner’s industry are hypothetical. Only the right to bid is certain… but there are many candidates who want the same markets. For the rest, had the UK wanted a naval (and also multirole, while we are at it) version of the Typhoon, chances are the French would still be onboard.

    Then the UK companies must already have bid and won because they’re already major suppliers to the program. Nothing hypothetical about that.

    Tail end of the transformation for the F-35

    http://i57.tinypic.com/r2wc5v.jpg

    http://oi61.tinypic.com/2aew846.jpg

    F-35 stake promises big returns for BAE

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223399
    Vnomad
    Participant

    @ mrmalaya

    yes, we agree on that, it was MoD’s choice not to have any other option

    @ Siddar

    that’s just LM’s propaganda to force nations into buying their thing.

    Propaganda might work on politicians but pressure from their respective air forces is probably more effective. In this case, the MoD clearly wanted a stealthy complement to the Eurofighter.

    Rafales are being updated and France is nowhere near investing billions into a new aircraft, so obviously, nothing would force you to spend tens of billions to keep your industry working. besidew, they are developing next gen of UAV, and it’s not the F-35 that brought them that… they do it with the French. The F-35 brought only the possibility to bid for a few contracts, nothing else

    The Rafale would have been simpler but from an industrial perspective totally non-viable. Their participation in the F-35 program will possibly net the UK industry over $40 billion over the next 20 years. Dassault/Thales won’t have been able to offer anything even remotely comparable.

    And even if the UK had decided (back in the 90s) not to participate in the F-35 program, and splurge on an EMCAT solution, they’d still have been better off investing in a naval variant of the Eurofighter (navalized airframe, LERX, TVC etc). The capital would have been invested domestically, the RN/RAF fleets would have had logistical commonality and it would have helped the EF’s export prospects.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223408
    Vnomad
    Participant

    That’s not “rhetoric”. F-35 has a track record of concealment and propaganda, not transparency. All the detail in the world is of no use if it is distorted or inaccurate, or if political influence is used to prevent it being acted on.

    Sure LM conceals and propagandizes. Just asking you to show me the defence contractor that doesn’t or the military program that’s been run more transparently.

    And welcome to my Ignore list, by the way.

    Bad day at work?

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223518
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Can you name ANY military program in the world that has been run as transparently as the F-35 program?

    Can you name any military program in the world that has the F-35’s marketing budget?

    You tell me. PR isn’t a particularly expensive activity and Saab, Dassault and EF have spent a fair bit on marketing their wares.

    And speaking of “transparent”:

    Gates said he’s particularly excited that the F-35 appears to be on schedule to equip the first training squadron at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla. , by 2011, and enable the Marine Corps to reach initial operational capability by 2012.

    http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=55684

    So transparent that the SecDef didn’t know there was a three-year delay.

    Forget the rhetoric. Can you actually point me in the direction of the program that offers more detail than what is available for the F-35? Even by (relatively transparent) US standards, the F-35 is an exceptionally open program. In contrast, for most other programs we’re have to rely on folks with a ‘inside track’ on what’s going on (not that I’m not appreciative of people like Scorpion82, Halloweene and Kovy).

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2223608
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Except that the USA won’t provide any long range air-ground weapons or allow them to be integrated onto Egyptian F-16s.

    Why would it need long range weaponry? Unlike UAE which has disputes with the (fairly distant) Iran, Egyptians F-16s have the legs to hit anything in their area of interest. Also, given the cost of modern standoff weaponry, ranging upwards from $5 mil each for an export customer, how many could they possibly require? The 18 Mirages in services ought to be more than sufficient as cruise missile platforms, supplemented perhaps with a batch of Emirati Mirages.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2223624
    Vnomad
    Participant

    No. Notwithstanding the relatively strong EGP vs US$, I can assure you the raising of new debt in the international financial markets will not entail yields of 10%.

    Not in dollar denominated debt yes, but otherwise Egypt govt bond yield hovers around 15%. Interest rates are low in the west but with plenty of investment opportunities in developing world (Indonesia, India, Brazil, Turkey and so on), Egypt’s borrowing rates are still a function of its economic stability.

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223636
    Vnomad
    Participant

    The other is that the JSF is going to be reliant on a big brother being around to deal with any significant airborne threats (i.e. F-22 vs. PAK-FA). For everywhere bar the US (and I guess, UK with Eurofighter), this is not an option and in an anything like equal footing*, the F-35 would appear to be nothing like a match for the PAK-FA. Which leaves these other nations in somewhat of a quandary giving up both the numerical advantage that a Gripen may bring and the qualitative edge (or parity depending on your POV I guess) in the arena of aerial combat that an F-22 would bring.

    You think the Gripen will be a match for the PAK FA? Two Gripens? You certainly won’t be able to acquire more than 2 Gripens for the cost of one F-35 (and even that’s being generous).

    *I accept that this is very much based on conjecture at this time, but given the alleged range, speed and range at speed advantages of the PAK-FA, then assuming anything like functional sensors and off-board parity, it will be able to dance an F-35 out of fuel, or to a low energy state for an uncontested long ranged missile launch, or even just run it out of ammo (2/4 long range AAMs vs 6), or if the F-35 must hide at low altitude to avoid optimal IRST conditions, then its exposed to all sorts of trashfire and SAMs.

    What of the radar, EW suite, sensor fusion, MMI, RCS and so on? What of the strike, SEAD/DEAD, ISTAR roles? Are you’re betting that all future air combat will take place in the IR spectrum (and that all those investments in AESA tech are a waste of time and money)? Because most operators don’t share that opinion (this includes Russia and China).

    in reply to: F-35 News, Multimedia & Discussion thread (2015) #2223642
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Unfortunately, LM and the DoD have had a long track record of massaging numbers, releasing half-truths and papering over cracks right, left and centre. This is not something in the distant past, but is happening right now.

    Why would anyone* trust them given their actions over the course of the program?

    *Apart from the stupidly naive.

    I, and I am sure, many others, would love to just be able to take a press release at face value. But, given doing so would make you look like an idiot, there is little alternative but to read between the lines, then look elsewhere for confirmation of what they have left unsaid.

    Can you name ANY military program in the world that has been run as transparently as the F-35 program? Forget Russia and China. Even in Europe. Can you for example tell me the exact status of the Gripen E? What are the benchmarks required, what part of the testing is done, what part remains? How far is it ahead or behind schedule (in months please)? What’s the exact status of the Rafale F3R? What is the exact cost breakdown – R&D, upgrades, flyaway cost and support?

    If LM & Co. are offering half-truths and massaging figures, its competitors in Europe & elsewhere are operating in complete blackout by comparison. Right now.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2224010
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Wouldn’t it more credible that he is in Paris to make sure they don’t get any raf ?

    Would be more logical certainly. I’d imagine the UAE would give a higher priority to funding its own Rafales (the deal tripped over cost concerns IIRC).

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2224014
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Also, it’s highly likely the Egyptian government will take advantage of the low cost of debt in the international capital markets, particularly in the US dollar bond market.

    Even for long-term debt with Egypt’s appalling credit rating (Caa1 stable), I’d expects yields of <5%.

    US dollar bond market? You mean Egyptian bond sales denominated in dollars?

    Yield on Egyptian debt varies from 12% to 15%. For EGP dominated bonds that hovers around 10%.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2224022
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Why do you think Cheikh Bin Zayed from EAU is in Paris today?

    Given that UAE has been trying to get Egypt to buy some of its (surplus?) Mirages, I don’t why they’d suddenly decide to fund an Egyptian Rafale buy.

    Egyptian F-16 are limited (no AMRAAM for ex), their M2K are getting old. second hand T1 could have been a solution, but would lack A2G capabilities (that could be needed in Sinai, Lybia, Sudan). 2000-9 could have been another solution but i guess Egypt want bigger payload, AASM (not integrated on EAU M2K) and other goodies.

    Egypt has some 220 F-16s & 18 Mirage 2000s and has recently started inducting the Sniper pod. That’s more fighter aircraft than the entire French Air Force fields. For air to ground missions, I’d say they’ve got it more than covered. A fraction of that fleet would be adequate to deal with most contingencies. Certainly enough for Libya.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2224035
    Vnomad
    Participant

    Anyway, with 1€ = 1.13$, it is certainly the good time to buy some Rafale if you are interested in this jet.

    Only if your forex reserves have a high proportion of US dollars (as opposed to Euros). Keep in mind the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, not just the Euro.

    The Egyptian Pound/Euro exchange rate at least has not significantly changed.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,411 through 1,425 (of 2,429 total)