An interesting question is, will Israel attack Iran? Iran has promised that if Israel attempts another ‘Osirak’, they will use their Shahab 3’s in turn to destroy Israel’s nuclear production plant.

The US is too embroiled in Iraq to begin any sort of military actions against Iran, so that leaves it to Israel to go it alone. But on this problem, they don’t have as good intel on the Iranian plant as they did Iraq’s Osirak. So that would require a massive air attack of some kind, which would most definitely lead to all-out war.

Sanctions, will probably not be effective, and sitting on one’s hands is out of the question.

And to tie it into this thread, the Arrow is not mature enough yet to be combat-tested.

Date Posted: 13-Aug-2004

JANE’S DEFENCE WEEKLY – AUGUST 18, 2004

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Iran, Israel trade barbs over new missile tests
MICHAEL SIRAK JDW Staff Reporter
Washington, DC
Additional reporting by Alon Ben-David JDW Correspondent
Tel Aviv
and Andrew Koch JDW Bureau Chief
Washington, DC

Tehran on 11 August announced that it had tested an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile. The test came just two weeks after Israel’s Arrow anti-missile system – designed to negate the Shahab threat – shot down an actual ‘Scud’ missile for the first time in an exercise meant to validate its growing capabilities.

While senior Iranian defence officials said the Shahab field exercise – it was not an actual flight test – was meant to assess the performance of new components that engineers have integrated into the missile, they acknowledged that its timing was no accident.

“The Israelis are trying hard to improve the [capability] of their [Arrow] missiles and we are also trying to improve the Shahab-3 in a short time,” said Iranian Defence Minister Rear Adm Ali Shamkhani on 7 August while disclosing the pending test. The improvements to the missile “not only concern its range, but other specifications as well”, he noted.

Regional intelligence sources told JDW that these enhancements include guidance equipment of Chinese origin to improve the missile’s accuracy. US intelligence sources could not confirm this claim as JDW went to press.

The baseline Shahab-3 is believed to have a range approaching 1,300km – enough to strike Israel. There is no information that the improvements include penetration aids that could help the missile evade the Arrow’s interceptors.

The sequence of Arrow-Shahab testing comes amid the backdrop of the continuing crisis over Iran’s alleged clandestine nuclear weapon programme. Iran has said it would strike at Israel with its ballistic missiles if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities.

The spiral has not concluded, as Israel, together with the US, plan to conduct the next Arrow Weapon System (AWS) intercept test before the end of this month.

Like the previous exercise on 29 July, the upcoming event will occur at the Point Mugu sea range off the US west coast. The AWS will go up against a ‘Scud D’ ballistic missile target with a separating warhead, said the sources. The ‘Scud D’, which Syria is believed to possess, has a reported range out to 700km.

Israeli industry sources indicated that this will be an ambitious exercise – perhaps too ambitious for the Arrow programme at this point. Confidence in achieving success this time is not as high as before the previous mission due to the increased sophistication of the target missile, they said.

Israel is working to improve the Arrow’s capabilities under the Arrow System Improvement Programme (ASIP), a joint initiative with the US, so that it remains superior to the more sophisticated threats emerging in the region. Two Arrow batteries are already operational.

“We have today two kinds of threats,” said Arieh Herzog, director of the Israel Missile Defense Organisation (IMDO). While the Syrian missile threat “is mainly in the ‘Scud’ family”, the Iranian threat “is longer range, more sophisticated and more threatening because of the types of warheads that they are developing”, he said earlier this month in Washington, DC, before the Iranian test.

Israel, through ASIP, wants “to be sure that whenever the Iranians have better performance on their side, we will already have our answers,” he said.

The Israelis used an Arrow 2 version M3 interceptor in the 29 July test. Herzog said it contains only Israeli-manufactured components. The next interceptor variant, Arrow 2 version M4, will include components provided by Boeing under a 2002 teaming arrangement with Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI). The first interceptor featuring ASIP improvements is dubbed Arrow 2 version M5, he said.

Boaz Levy, director of the Arrow programme within IAI, said the 29 July test was “very successful” and proved the Arrow’s ability to destroy an actual ‘Scud’. “We know it was a fragmentation kill of the target, followed by a body-on-body collision,” he said.

See ‘Arrow points to change in Middle East balance’ (JDW 4 August 2004)

Interview: ‘Arieh Herzog- Director, Israel Missile Defense Organisation’ (JDW 22 October 2003)

‘Arrow 2’, ‘Scud D’ and ‘Shahab 3/4’ entries (Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems)

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