The thing that will eventually seperate such systems, would be the INSIDE, the software, the architectur brain and the sensor suite. That is what will determine the tricks it can perform such as autonomous operations (Without DL), Carrier ops, Multiple mountable missions etc. US is not going in for such aircraft (X-45, X47 type) so its upto europe and who so ever is next to make maximum use .

Whosoever has the best software engineers- wins (as hardware is or will be available COTS).

I wouldn’t hold your breath on truly autonomous systems, if you mean anything more than pre-programmed flight/strike profiles with relatively basic threat avoidance and target discrimination/prioritisation due to sensor fusion.

There will be a ‘man in the loop’ for a long, long time to come and so called ‘artificial intelligence’ systems are likely to be a huge anti-climax, if one hopes for ‘hollywood style’ platforms.

Here the eminent physicist Sir Roger Penrose explains why, from 0:38mins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5XYf1GJBhg

Am I reading this right?! There are NO plans for series production of the X-47B!! I’m hugely disappointed (it’s my favourite US aircraft):mad:.

The purpose of a test program is to find defects and correct them. This has always been the case or nobody would need test programs. People who get their panties in a wad either do not understand the purpose of testing or are using it as an opportunity to attack for their own motives (typically to promote their pet rock progect).

Even the simple F-16 had lots of deficiencies to correct as a result of testing. By 1980, the F-16 had implemented 1,100 design changes to correct deficiencies (F-16A first flew in 1976). I know this to be true because I provided analyses to support several changes to the Configuration Change Board.

The bottom line is F-35 deficiencies will be corrected. Re-design to correct deficiencies has happened on every other airplane and F-35 is no different.

I don’t think it’s so much about flight testing per se, DJ, but a leap of faith by the US DoD that LM could deliver a relatively mature design quite early on in the test programme by utilising a new generation of design, simulation and manufacturing tools. The whole idea of launching LRIP so early in the testing phase was that the modifications of initial F-35 batches would be modest at worst.

Evidently LM’s complacency has meant ‘concurrency’ has come back to bite them in the a$$. In fact, the issues & problems revealed in testing to date are synonymous with previous fighter test programmes (when aircraft were tested to destruction pre-production), which makes your comparison of your analyses and redesign experience with the F-16 quite worrisome.

Of particular concern has to be the number of problems already encountered even before the flight envelope has been fully opened up- so the design cannot be classed as ‘mature’.
I’m not so sure moving the goalposts (lowering the performance parameters) makes the design any more mature (if you exclude the F-35B).

The effects of the sequester will hit LM’s aeronautics division sometime 2014/15, so in these preceding 2 years they have to have made significant progress with the list of issues, to prevent the US DoD’s leap of faith turning into the stuff of nightmares.

The ‘Sequester’ is essentially packing a full year’s budget cuts into 6 months, involving indiscriminate, across-the-board reductions of 13% in defence outlays and 9% cuts in non-defence outlays. As the Pentagon has already been hit by a $46bn budget cut for this fiscal, obviously states heavily dependant on US government outlays (USN bases and infrastructure in DC, Maryland, Virginia) will immediately feel the impact.

However, any adverse affects on deployments & readiness will be short-lived with a return to relative budgetery norms by the end of the year. So I think it’s best to keep things in perspective.

I’d be far more worried about what the 10% rolling cuts to the Pentagon budget will do to R&D programmes this coming decade.

Addenda

CNT-based signature control material:

1PP8M10-6 (1ПП8М10-6):

Reflectance coefficient: -10dB (average over frequency range 1-80 GHz); Thickness~1mm.
Hence, as per pdf. Table, thickness of 3mm gives the average -30dB over 1-80GHz [1].

Customisable, frequency specific (X to lower Ku band) polymer films with cobalt-ferrite nanostructures exhibit absorption averaging ~22.25dB over 8.6 to 13.1 GHz [2].

For the 1PP8M10-6/8 series CNT nanocomposite RAM there are 2 such variants:

[i] Reflectance coefficient: -10dB (average over frequency range 6-80GHz); thickness~1mm.
Hence thickness of 3mm gives the average -22.25dB over 8.6 to 13.1 GHz.

And/or:

[ii]Reflectance coefficient: -12dB (average over frequency range 7-80GHz); thickness ~1.5mm.
Hence thickness of 4.5mm gives the average -22.25dB over 8.6 to 13.1 GHz.

Although the DMSDRE’s 3mm RAM is better @ lower X-band, these 2 Russian variants significantly outperform the former from mid X band & thru the Ku range.

As mentioned previously, Rusar-C is a polymer/aramid composite that has been modified with multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) for the primary purpose of increasing the mechanical, tensile (Young’s modulus) including vibration & shock resistance, physical and thermal properties for the materials’ application.

Some examples of its use are: the third stage casing of the RSM-56 ‘Bulava’ SLBM and one of the stages of the RT-2UTTKh ‘Topol-M’ ICBM along with the more mundane application on the PS-90 as an engine shroud [3].

However, by increasing the %Vol of MWNTs, the dielectric constant also increases. In an academic study from 2005 a composite consisting of 10%Vol. MWNTs (and a thickness of only 5mm) recorded the following microwave (X-band) absorption results:

Above right is TsAGI’s composite cowling for the D-436-148 [4]

Needless to say how useful such a material would be replacing the T-50’s current bare-metal cowlings with a more advanced derivative, a fact, I’m sure, is not lost on the Russkies- without even employing the exotic ferro-magnetic nanoparticles detailed above. Leaving deductive reasoning behind, we enter ‘no brainer’ territory.

There are currently 16 Russian government budgeted nano/CNT-modified composite R&D programmes due for completion by the end of this year. Nine of these require advanced, auto-clave free fabrication/production techniques [5].

These are 2 of the more interesting ones (company of origin not specified):

«Разработка высокомодульных углепластиков на основе российских углеродных волокнистых наполнителей на рабочие температуры 120 – 400°С» (шифр НИР «Жесткость»)

“Development of high-modulus carbon, based on the Russian carbon fibre nano-fillers for working temperatures of 120-400°C» (codename NIR ” Hardness “) [5].

«Разработка методов и технологий синтеза кремнийорганических и полиизоциануратных связующих для композиционных материалов конструкционного, теплозащитного и радиотехнического и специального назначения» (шифр НИР «Радикал»).

“The development of methods and technologies for the synthesis of silicone and polymer binders for composite materials, regarding their structural, thermal and radar engineering properties and for ‘special-purposes’ (codename NIR “Radical “) [5].

For the fabrication of these modified nanocomposites, advanced capital machine tooling (RTM, RFI, VaRTM, RIM, Quick Step, ATL, AFP etc.) have already been acquired by the major companies- under a Government directive ending December 2012. Several other R&D concerns (affiliated to the Russian Academy of Sciences)and production facilities will have completed their upgrade by the end of this year [5].

The three biggest enterprises involved in CF polymer production for the T-50 programme are FGUP ‘VIAM’ (ФГУП «ВИАМ»), ZAO ‘HK Kompozit’ (ЗАО «ХК «Композит») and FGUP ‘ONPP Technologiya’ (ФГУП «ОНПП «Технология»), all these have now operationalized the aforementioned advanced production techniques and machinery.

However, there is one other very interesting big fish. OAO ‘MMEZ Composite Technologies’ ( ОАО «ММЭЗ – Композиционные технологии»). This company has a very broad customer portfolio and is involved in the latest aviation projects and (as per the directive of a government commission in 2010) it is closely affiliated to TsAGI [6].

Below is their CF polymer composite floor beam/joist for the Tu-204SM and MS-21. It was designed using advanced computer modeling techniques and fabricated with Va-RTM. So clearly they’re entering ‘Dreamliner’ ballpark for CF polymer load-bearing structures, evidently the technologies to be utilized for the MS-21 are World class [7].

They’re currently occupied with:

4.Разработка и создание агрегатов каркаса планера авиационной техники (самолетов и вертолетов) из ПКМ;
5.Разработка и создание ряда изделий для ТРДД из ПКМ;

4.development and creation of [nano-modified] carbon fibre polymers for the structural airframes of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters;
5.development and creation of elements of [gas turbine engines] made of polymer composite materials;

As for point #5, OAO ‘MMEZ Composite Technologies’ are not the only ones actively engaged in developing new materials, as are engine specialists FGUP ‘TsIAM’ ( ФГУП “ЦИАМ), MMPP ‘Salyut’ (ФГУП «ММПП «Салют») and FGUP ‘Ural NII Composite Materials’ (ФГУП «Уральский НИИ композиционных материалов»), the latter is working on a CNT modified C-SiC ceramic matrix for the combustion chamber walls, resulting in a weight saving of 10-15% [8][9].

OAO ‘MMEZ Composite Technologies’ production portfolio for CNT modified composites is broad and there are obvious applications for major elements of the T-50, in conjunction with the efforts of the two other major companies:

4.Изделия из наномодифицированных ПКМ для авиации (интерцептор, воздушный тормоз, закрылок, предкрылок, элерон, рули высоты, рули , секции шпангоутов, окантовки иллюминаторов, стойки и балки пола, элементы крыла и оперения, технические люки, интегральные панели крыла, киля и стабилизатора, фюзеляжа, пассажирские и грузовые двери, переплеты остекления кабины пилотов, элементы интерьеров)

4.Products made of nano-modified PCM for aviation (spoilers, air brakes, flaps, slats, ailerons, elevators, rudders, sections of frames, borders of windows, pillars and floor joists, elements of the wing and tail, technical hatches, integrated wing panels, fin and stabilizer, fuselage, passenger and cargo doors, coatings for cockpit glass, interior elements) .

Intimations of CNT modification of a metal matrix composite (MMC) structure -that of a certain recent compressor fan blade development, have been difficult to pin down… thus far:

Radar absorbing composite materials…include a matrix material to form the composite with the CNT-infused fibre material…Matrix materials more generally can include resins (polymers), both thermosetting and thermoplastic, metals, ceramics and cements [10].

Certainly, OAO ‘MMEZ Composite Technologies’ ( ОАО «ММЭЗ – Композиционные технологии») is one of several Russian companies that possess this advanced production capability:

5.Изделия из наномодифицированных ПКМ для двигателестроения (воздухозаборник,… вентиляторная лопатка…)

Products made of nano-modified polymer composite materials (PCMs) for the [aircraft]engine (air intake…compressor fan blade…)

http://mempct.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=29&Itemid=20

‘NPP Motor’, “I know what you did last summer…”

[1] http://forum.keypublishing.com/showpost.php?p=1992126&postcount=191[2] http://forum.keypublishing.com/showpost.php?p=1994250&postcount=206[3] http://npptermoteks.ru/?page=14
[4] http://www.arms-expo.ru/049057054050124050052056051055.html
[5] **********
[6] http://mempct.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=60:-l-r&catid=4:2010-12-16-09-20-50&Itemid=7
[7] http://www.rt-chemcomposite.ru/produktsiya/833/
[8] http://engine.aviaport.ru/issues/79/pics/pg04.pdf
[9] http://www.rusnanonet.ru/articles/45708/
[10] **********

Head NPO Saturn, Yevgeny Martchkov, states the Stage 2 engine will be ready by 2017, this follows the establishment of the Scientific-Technical & Engineering Department for the project last year.

«Начаты и успешно продолжаются опытно-конструкторские работы по двигателю второго этапа. Машина будет готова к 2017 году», – уточнил Марчуков. В то же время он предпочел не раскрывать технические и технологические детали этой перспективной отечественной разработки, передает ИТАР-ТАСС.

“[NPO Saturn] has initiated and successfully continued development work on the second stage engine. It will be ready by the year 2017, “said Martchkov. At the same time, he declined to disclose the technical and technological details of the future development, as reported by ITAR-TASS News Agency.

http://www.vz.ru/news/2013/2/21/621486.html

IIrc, there’ll be ~9 pre-production/EMD machines to join the combined MoD/Sukhoi flight test programme, then the ‘Stage 2/Type 30’ should be ready for installation aboard serial machines once production commences sometime 2018 onwards, assuming by ‘ready’ he means flight certified.

Update 4

“Good news everyone!!! I figured out the proportionality/diminishing returns riddle!!”

It was actually staring me right in the face. I made the error of interpreting 1PP8M10-6’s Коэффициент отражения, дБ (reflection coefficient, dB) “-10…-30” in the pdf, as the range of absorption. This assumption was false, the thickness (Толщина, мм) is directly related to the said numbers like so: 1mm gives an average absorption of -10dB over the frequency range 30cm to 1mm (1-80GHz), and 3mm achieves -30dB (i.e.3x), 1mm cannot yield -30dB! Needless to say this changes everything!

The table below details closely related CNT RAM developed by the same institution:

[Guide: 1st column- composition; 2nd column- frequency range (GHz); 3rd column- reflection coefficient (dB) averaged over the frequency range; 4th column- single layer thickness; 5th column- mass per kg/m^2]

1ПП8М10-6 1-80 (GHz); -10 (dB) ~1(mm) 1*
(1PP8M10-6)

We’re concerned with composition 7 (the last one) to compare with 1PP8M10-6. All of the above (including 1PP8M10-6) were developed by the same institution.

Now for 1PP8M10-6’s 3mm version (i.e. 2 more layers, the reflection coefficient goes up directly proportionately to -30dB)**. This figure is similar to a 3x ‘Composition 7’, and is an average for the entire frequency range of 1-80GHz (30cm-1mm). *The significantly heavier mass per kg/m^2 will probably be down to a more compacted nanoparticle structural composition to encompass L-band, the binder and coatings to make it production ready. Clearly, the different layer compositions can be customised depending on the intended application. There are several more data rows of layers in the table (not shown).

Hence: The ‘Single-layer based on thin, nanostructured films’ (Однослойные на основе тонких наноструктурированных пленок) is 1mm(and gives -10dB) and Multi-layer, based on thin nanostructured films (Многослойные на основе тонких наноструктурированных пленок) is 3mm (and yields -30dB).

For the crucial frequency specific 8-12 GHz (X-band) range we use the DMSRDE figures*** averaging an impressive 19.2dB absorption, the 3mm layer is essentially 3 x 1mm (or 2x 1.5mm) layers. As per breakdown in the table above, would give -6.4dB per 1 mm. So 2 layers of 3mm (i.e.6 layers equating to 6mm) will yield an absorption coefficient of around -35dB (6mm x -6.4dB). Needless to say that’s an amazing result! (and what the implications are).

I’m very cautious when it comes to Dr. Carlo Kopp, but a major caveat of his PO analysis was lack of hard data on Russian RAM. As regular visitors to this thread, the APA brigade are gonna have a field day when they realise their favourite ‘F-35 boogy monster’ incorporates broadband and frequency specific Radar Absorbent Structures in all it’s critical RCS ‘hotspots’, with hard data to back it up.

Guys, you can go with (at the very least) -30dB for the beam aspect, if the above & linked data are not enough, the Materials’ Science and Physics departments of your nearest major university will confirm the multilayer application of the CNT-modified signature control material as a RAS, and marginal diminishing returns per layer.

Ignore the increasingly desperate ramblings of Ohlhenhoser’s chief jihadi on this thread, and his ‘logic’ of omitting data to reinforce his grossly flawed, subjective conclusions.

Here are the links Dr. Kopp, oh, and could you give myself (and Twinblade) a mention in the credits of your next report (for once), you can even call it “Jō’s RAM” copyright/trademark infringements notwithstanding, of course. Thanks.

** http://www.rusnanonet.ru/download/documents/radar_absorbent_material.pdf
*** http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z3udoSxddNc/UR6fmG3WIjI/AAAAAAAAEGw/Mq_gazdhXK4/s1600/DMSRDE-Developed+Composites-2.jpg
http://rusnanonet.ru/goods/84616/

Thanks Twinblade. That would be an example of the ‘frequency specific’ RAM (easily within -15dB to -20dB absorption over a range of 8-12GHz), and concurs nicely with my suggested -16dB low base figure to be factored into the above analysis.

Either way, I think the evidence now is insurmountable.