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Schorsch

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,606 through 1,620 (of 3,480 total)
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  • in reply to: F-14: The 1970's Perspective #2472825
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I can post more Tomcat lore if there is interest, but I realize this may be a dormant thread

    Your post is very interesting.
    It shows that the aircraft that was the Tomcat was never planned to fly like that. It also underlines the extreme rivalry between the USN and USAF in aircraft procurement, and their will to force their solution onto each other, may it be complete aircraft or systems/engines.

    in reply to: EA-18 Growler #2472828
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I thought USAF and USN have quit using MERs?

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473933
    Schorsch
    Participant

    APUC
    PUAC

    Meaning?

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473936
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Look what tends to drive that though- orders always getting cut below what was planned at the outset. That means R&D costs get spread across fewer airframes and it’s less likely anybody will invest in more efficient processes (as they would if they could depend on the originally planned numbers) which drives the cost up. It’s about the worst way to purchase a thing ever invented and they do it time and again.

    When contracts are fixed a development and procurement price is fixed. As you say the number of procured systems is often reduced to keep the package price in order to stay within the legislative price frame.
    However, in most programs the increased cost did not result from reduced numbers in the first place but an at least 50% increase in development price.

    A very nice example is the C-5 Galaxy. Not only then but also today with the C-5M upgrade.

    And to make one thing clear: this is no American problem and I am not blaming the US defence contractors of incompetence, it is a general problem existent when high-tech weapons are procured. The Soviets regularly blew up all cost and time estimations.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2473973
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Flyaway at the time of delivery. What sense would it make to count in 2001 dollars in 2012?

    If you had said in 1969, that a B747 will have a Fly-Away price of 250 million USD, everybody would have said you’re nuts. Finally, you did win though. But only after over 25 years of inflation (I think B747-400 was over 250 million list price mid/end of the 90ies). The late 70ies and early 80ies were a pretty inflationary time, though.

    [ATTACH]161515[/ATTACH]

    Now, a 4% inflation might sound a lot, but remember that “the inflation” is an averaged value over house prices, oil, toilet paper, DVD-players and many other things. It is rather representative for normal peoples way of living, but might be a bad yardstick for very specialized products (like supersonic fighter aircraft).

    At peak of production a single B-52 did sell for less than the F-35’s radar.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2474021
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I have placed a bet few years ago and I am willing to lace more about the actual price of the F-35 being well over $120mil. These projections are made to make it look good, paper can handle pretty much 😉

    Which year’s $?
    2001 equivalent?
    Then you may get into trouble with your bet.

    $100mil from 2001 are equivalent to $119mil today and to $131mil in 2012.

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2474037
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Well, considering the price of such types like the Rafale, Typhoon, Super Hornet, and Raptor. The F-35 will clearly be reasonable……..(in comparison):D

    Scooter,
    have you really looked into procurement processes? Have you ever seen one that started as very expensive delayed and finally below specified performance system? I guess not.
    Now go and see, that most projects end as such.

    Comparing an aircraft that is
    designed, tested, certified, delivered and operational
    with one that isn’t anything of that is just white noise.
    Each of the 5 characteristics is a major milestone.
    The F-35 has optimistically passed the first (“designed”), while the final design is really set after completion of at least the basic test schedule.

    The F-35 may well end as a much delayed, extremely over cost and below specified performance program. Actually, if it wouldn’t it would be a major exception (purely from experience of previous projects).

    in reply to: F-35 price tag holding steady………. #2474091
    Schorsch
    Participant

    The price is transferred money divided by procured aircraft.
    At the moment lots of money was procured and no aircraft is there.
    The current price is consequently infinite.
    The rest are projections, which by experience tend to be always wrong and too low!

    I think the F-35 will be a good and reasonably affordable aircraft, but still the current projections will be … wrong and too low.

    in reply to: EAGL – The Plastic Galaxy #2474301
    Schorsch
    Participant

    i thought those were fuel tanks that they added in later builds to give it longer range? (C-17ER)

    Every aircraft, even those of Antonov, need a center wing box. There you cannot have fuselage spave. There are generally two ways to accomodate the wing box: either the fuselage has the box inside, leading to a step in the fuselage ceiling (like C-17). Advantage: more space behind the box.

    Or you make it like An-124 or C-5: make a straight ceiling and have useless space above the main deck. At least no conscript soldier notices a gap in step in the ceiling.

    in reply to: EAGL – The Plastic Galaxy #2474397
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Guys,
    I am just saying that such an aircraft will come with a price tag of 300 million per copy plus development and testing (assume 10bln), making it (considering a 80 aircraft deal) a 30 billion USD program. That is very optimistic.
    The notorious behavior of the USAF will lead to excessive gold plating, finally to a delayed aircraft below expectations.

    In the end there will be no export customer (they hardly find any for the smaller C-17), no civil variant (cannot compete against B747 or A380) and no added value to the American economy.
    The defense of the homeland can be achieved with smaller transport aircraft.

    So, US politicians who (or have advisers which) are at least as clever as I am, will figure that out and never give those 30 billion USD.
    No money, no program, no aircraft.

    I bet a box of beer on it.

    in reply to: F-22A v F/C-17A #2474722
    Schorsch
    Participant

    1st of April runs around the world.

    Anyways, such a proposal with a more or less commercial aircraft equipped with lots of missiles was looked at before. I guess it is unattractive because the aircraft is severly limited in mission flexibility. Besides, military aircraft are selected by generals, who don’t like to exchange F-15 against C-17.

    in reply to: EAGL – The Plastic Galaxy #2474913
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Where is the point in making a military transporter bigger than the C-17? The Galaxy has lost its mission. I have read the article, too, but seriously doubt they want to pull off another competition to build something Airbus and Boeing are building since years: efficient aircraft in the 350+t class.

    in reply to: Iraqi Airways Orders 50+15 Aircraft #541323
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Hey, why no Airbus order? France and Germany are the few countries that never dropped bombs on Iraq. And the Iraqis had so much success with French aircraft, and also with the French made nuclear reactor for peaceful (hey, what else 😀 ) nuclear technology.

    in reply to: Unknown Sukhoi strategic bomber revealed! #2475055
    Schorsch
    Participant

    The problem with “what-if” modellers: they often lack some basic airframe design knowledge and hence more or less combine the features of several aircraft. Here we see a Su-27 and a B-1B, combined with the very oddly attached missiles of a Tu-16. Still, nice try.

    in reply to: Upper limit of jetliner size? #542283
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I do note the lack of structural/OEW estimates in the Stanford study. Maybe they did it, and then did not bother to give numbers. What they do seem to say is that wing weight is small enough that even if it does undergo square-cube increase, it still remains a minor factor.

    For example, compare B-36 with B-29. The 70 m wingspan of B-36 is bigger than any jets till An-124. Yet B-36 has a huge useful load and long range. At which wingspan would the structural weight start to seriously limit useful load and range?

    What about An-225 and Hughes Hercules wing structural weight?

    I guess the study did well in not mentioning the OEW. Most predictions are based on past aircraft and work best if one does not exceed that limits. Manufacturers have problem to guess the weight of their aircraft within 5% (see Boeing 787).

    When comparing size one should compare capability, too. The A380 for example is much faster than the An-225, giving more design challenges for the wing and structural margin versus flutter.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,606 through 1,620 (of 3,480 total)