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Schorsch

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  • in reply to: The quest for a modern low-tech fighter #2598087
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Austria is a perfect example of a country that uses its fighters mainly to protect the sovereignty of its air space. The Drakens were famous for chasing US aircraft taking shortcuts over Austria.

    The Air forces of most countries are mostly for air space protection during peace time with transport and ferrying of VIPs as major secondary tasks.

    Competitive defense of air space is increasingly unaffordable even for industrialized nations. Small but per inhabitant rich countries like Denmark, Norway or Singapur cannot size their fleet of aircraft down to a proportional value. So the 24 fighters they have are less effective but more expensive, actually leaving the question where the point in air defence is.

    On the other hand a few capable fighters can make a considerable difference. Think of a long range fighter like the Su-27 (and derivatives). Having 6 of these in your inventory gives you the ability to control airspace over the sea even 1500km off shore. In some situations this could mean to deny a neighboring country the access to the sea or to trade routes.

    As poor countries normally have no problem with losing some soldiers and can have poeple in the field longer, the added firepower by air is of reduced importance.

    in reply to: The quest for a modern low-tech fighter #2598145
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Because we are an aircraft forum we see airplanes and air forces as essential for war.

    That couldn’t be further from the truth for vast majority of the world’s nations. The most efficient way to project power for most countries is with an army. $25 million for a single medium tech aircraft can equip a whole armor battalion with 40 -50 Type 85 MBTs.

    A single fighter is not only pretty much useless except in peacetime, it needs ground forces to protect its air base to which it needs to return after about a hour of combat time. Not only is it battle time extremely limited, it can’t even hold ground.

    The armor battalion not only protects that stupid aircraft and its base but it can hold ground and can operate 24-7.

    There are only a very few countries where the air forces have large enough numbers to actually effect the course of war.

    The most important role for the air force in most countries is protecting air space sovereignty or transporting equipment and ViP during peacetime.

    Even COIN is relatively minor because in most countries government troops fight insurgents on the ground since fuel, maintenance and ammo costs don’t justify using it on insurgents who tend to be disgruntle peasants with AK-47s and a few RPGs.

    I agree on every point!

    Just add that fighters may serve as reconaissance aircraft and effectively add value to the mentioned ground forces.

    For any real air-2-ground combat you need considerable numbers of aircraft. If you don’t have LGB and Mavericks (very unlikely), a2g gets very expensive as you easily lose expensive aircraft to inexpensive AAA and MANPADS.

    Even if there is a limited air war it tends to be inconclusive and no 3rd world air force can afford constant a2a training. They also lack the ground equipment normally needed.
    The Russians often sold their high-performance aircraft to countries who were not able to use them accordingly. MiG-21 was still acceptable, but later MiG models proved to be to expensive and complicated. Same with USA, but they had the F-5 which included many features needed. After all one can ask why you need a supersonic fighter at all.
    If you skip supersonic capability you get an A-4 (or more modern an A-7) and have more punch for less money.

    Short calculation:
    For reasonable performance you need 16 to 24 fighters (compare Austria)
    Each costs 15 Milion USD AMARC Fly-Away with “I support Bush” discount.
    100h per year, 2000h remaining life time means about 20 years of fun.
    1h is 15.000 USD, so your fleet (18) costs you 27 Million USD per year, additional to the 270 Million USD purchase.
    Quite a price tag for a country, where people have an average GDP per citizen of less than 5 Dollars.

    (Compare: 15.000USD makes 8.2 average yearly incomes for 5$/citizen. USA has 35.000 $/citizen and pays around 2 to three times the price per FH, actually pays much less).

    Maybe anybody can support my guessed numbers.

    in reply to: MiG-29`s combat record #2598218
    Schorsch
    Participant

    The often mentioned “GCI” is often considered obsolete and of little use. That is not true. For a defensive situation (the mission of the MiG-29) GCI is very useful and will lead to favorable results. In such a situation MiG-29 can normally establish numerical advantage, climb to optimum altitude and vector to their targets. Then switch on their radar and get a favorable shot.

    The problem is the limited flexibility of this system
    – if used beyond the line of GCI coverage
    – if ground stations are destroyed
    – if ground stations are affected be extreme jamming (which is not so easy as they’re normally quite powerful)

    This system did not work with Soviet middle eastern allies due to their special limitations and because this system is very static and can be put out of order by a force with sufficent capability (IAF 1982).
    In a situation of similar numbers of F-16A against MiG-29A the deciding factors are a lot. An offensive F-16A against a ground-guided MiG-29A will lose BVR fight.

    Flogger’s usual claims of “better” should not be taken too serious. In an optimization with several variables there is no optimum until you define exactly your cost function (or in straight words: you have to be very precise about the scenario, mission and requirements to talk of anything being “better”).

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2598296
    Schorsch
    Participant

    So if u’re rich and want tax cuts by democratically ellecting a president who might support tax cuts in general then u deserve to die?

    Please apologize the missing indication of “humor” in my post. I didn’t know you Americans take it soooo serious. Note previous post.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2598300
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Now how do you know how many WTC workers voted for Bush? I’d really like to hear that one. As for the WTC attack being a valid military operation? Sure, if they used cruise missiles and not suicide pilots. Military operations don’t tend to require suicide.

    And this has what to do with anything?

    Eh? That myth again, that only the rich got tax breaks? I’m living proof that this is complete BS.

    SOC,
    just indicate if you meant this “total retaliation” thing honest or not.

    If yes
    forget my post and just note my disappointment about you obviously strange opinions.

    If no
    see my posts as they were meant, a little bit ironic.

    Retaliate terrorism with terrorism is for stupid idiots only and will lead to nothing else than a step back in humanity. Every sane person knows that the active for terrorism is easiest to break by isolating them from the normal population. The thing would work as effective as moral bombing did in second world war, that is not at all.

    in reply to: F-105 and A-4 loss rates over North Vietnam #2598309
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I posted the same question on rec.aviation.military and got a very detailed general answer about US losses although lacking the two types’ loss rates.

    http://groups.google.com/group/rec.aviation.military/browse_frm/thread/1738becc69b774eb/755ade5678417620?hl=en#755ade5678417620

    Cheers,
    Sunho

    Can you maybe copy+paste these answers as they are not archieved.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2598940
    Schorsch
    Participant

    I am serious. What better way to demonstrate the vulnerability of your enemy and the inability of that nation’s leaders to defend their constituents by bombing high-use civillian targets? You don’t even have to consider them civillian targets in a nation like Iran. They vote for their President, so we’re attacking a political target, the electorate.

    Then you have to consider the 9/11 attack as a valid military operation, because a high percentage of WTC-inhabitants voted for GW Bush. I know that he lost the popular vote and NYC is a liberal disaster and doesn’t have much appreciation for southern US cowboys sending 16 year old to death penalty. But consider that most WTC-people are rich above average, so they waiting for George’s next tax cut.
    After all striking a sky scraper in Houston will definetly wipe out 70% republican voters and actually will promise mild headlines in the NY Times.

    However, if meant honestly your have a lack of understanding of the whole issue. Sorry to say it that rude.

    Then why U.S are not attacking!! thats I think becaus e they afraid of outcome sure they can hit iran and kill but outcome would be unpredictable. And what if Iran has Nuke already! And they test one medium size nuke warhead in persian gulf!!

    Or why don’t test nuke inside Iran, preferably some big, religious but rather useless city. Then blame US and declare Jischad on all Western people, and just for simplicity, on Israel, too. Can’t have a better pay-back for the enrichement facility.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2598971
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Good idea, bad target list. Things you should bomb with Mk 84s (because we shouldn’t spend the extra money to pay for more accuracy) are:

    -schools
    -hospitals
    -museums
    -religious sites
    -markets
    -food processing plants

    Do that, and you’ll get somewhere. At the very worst the entire nation gets irritated and then picks up arms against you. And in that case? Carpet bomb away.

    Stay serious. The most important thing is to clearly demonstrate your own power and at the same time the vunerability of the opponent. Actually, if Iran had B-2s, they could easily do the same:
    – sent ONE bomber to New York
    – bomb 2 major powerplants (just take out transformer station)
    – await shutdown of whole electricity in North-East due to overload at other plants
    – bomb 10 key electricity lines around NY
    – see complete New York in darkness for at least a week
    – have achieved approximate economical damage of several billions without necessarily killing more than 20

    If you have surplus bombers, do the same with LA, SF and SEA. Please finish all porno and music downloads until then because there might be some unavailable servers.

    in reply to: F-105 and A-4 loss rates over North Vietnam #2599016
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Also, when discussing the F-105’s ‘alleged’ susceptibility to antiaircraft fire one must bear in mind the fact that the USAF’s entire fleet of ‘Thuds’ were produced and delivered throughout the first half of the 1960s, before American airpower began to play a more substantial role in the SE Asia war. It’s as if the RAF and the US Army Air Corps were only allowed to use bomber aircraft produced before 1941 for their strategic bombing campaign against Nazi Germany. There was no opportunity to introduce design changes to the F-105, as a result of lessons learnt during combat experience in Vietnam, in any later production run. It always seemed to me that the f-105’s hydraulics issue could have been rectified/redesigned without incorporating any major airframe redesign or fuss.
    Come to think of it; a lot of the aircraft used by the USA in the Vietnam war had their production finished before things got busy in that war in 1964/65: F-100, F-101, F-102, F-104, F-8, A-3 Skywarrior, A-5 Vigilante, not to mention the B-47, B-52, B-57, B-66, etc. This was certainly not a situation found in WW 2, a war with a duration only half as long and fought with aircraft which were always in a continuous process of design, redesign, and production as lessons were been learnt during combat.

    A very good point. the Vietnam war was the last war long enough to use it for changes in the used aircraft. However, while in WW2 aircraft were only used for that war, in Vietnam the aircraft performed roles which they were not really intended with the air force not willingly to change the requirements. The F-4 was adapted by using different hydraulic systems and finally the -E model with the gun.

    Even in WW2 most designs were started and entered service in the early years. Some modifications were made during production but except for more engine power most aircraft kept their shortcomings through the war.

    Actually very interesting topic. Sad that it will drown in all the Iran- and MiG vs GD Threads.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2599021
    Schorsch
    Participant

    The Osirak-raid in June 1981 stopped Saddam in his ambitions by around a decade. Enough time to change his mind to look into cheaper, faster to get WMDs. After that attack France would have had faced stiff political opposition to deliver a replacement reactor to Iraq. Something similar will Russia have to face too, when it comes to the Iran!

    While the Osirak strike should not be considered as the final blow, it was as you said the lack of any further support and the re-direction of funds to the ongoing (and very expensive) war. Irak just did not have the resources to fund such a project.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2599033
    Schorsch
    Participant

    They have already tryed it in Vietnam… Well, lets just say it mildly, it caused more problems than solved.

    This retaliation can work, but only if some requirements are met.

    1. your enemy needs to be a at least partly industrialized country not living from the hand to the mouth (negative example: Afghanistan)
    2. your victim should have a government which is at least a little bit interested in the fade and health of its inhabitants (negative example: North Korea)
    3. your victim should be focussed on economic growth through technology adaption and domestic workshare in global economy
    4. your enemy should have an elite consisting of educated people with some influence on government and politics and objectives beyond the sometimes ill objectives of a government

    These points are true for Serbia, not North Korea or North Vietnam (although this strategy worked there 1972). Iran does partly fulfill these requirements, point 2 is questionable and point 4 unknwon to me.

    If these requirements are met you can retaliate by destroying key facilities of its infrastructure. A normal industrial society heavily relies on few facilities and the whole system can be slowed down by destroying some major things like
    – energy facilities (power plant, power distribution, transfomer stations)
    – water (a little bit unethitical)
    – bridges
    – government buildings
    – scientific facilities
    – key industrial sites (raffineries)

    All these targets are well known and can be substantially damaged with a few JDAMs. One B-2 could wipe out the whole power distribution system in Tehran in 15 minutes. They could strike once a weak with limited civilian losses clearly signilizing who has the military means to strike and who has no chances to defend.

    in reply to: F-105 and A-4 loss rates over North Vietnam #2599045
    Schorsch
    Participant

    As everybody here probably knows, USAF F-105 Thunderchiefs and USN A-4 Skyhawks bore the brunt of the Rolling Thunder campaign from 1965 to 1968 and suffered accordingly. The F-105 and A-4 losses over North Vietnam were 282 and 173 respectively.

    Now the harder part. What were their loss rates (losses/sorties) and how they compare? What factors contributed to the difference?

    Cheers,
    Sunho

    The F-105 was famous for being very easily affected by AAA hits due to the hydraulic system being fast out. The loss rate was small due to a lot of sorties, while however this loss rate was depending on what route package was hit. The “bad areas” normally resulted in much higher losses and sometimes reached WWII-levels.
    I think I have a source for that and will look it up tonight.

    in reply to: Should airplanes be like golf balls? #569676
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Remember Barnes Wallis created ‘Highball’ which was a dimpled spherical design – similar in appearance to a golf ball – to use as a ‘bouncing bomb’ against axis forces in WWII. Showing that golf ball principles could be used on a larger scale to improve aerodynamics. Of course this couldnt be applied to aeronautics, but im just pointing out that scaling does work.

    There is (and has always been) a huge effort put into scaling techniques and there is research everywhere. The simplest idea being wind tunnels? Scale models are analysed in conditions similar to large scale conditions and as such improvements can be made judging on similar effects.

    You do not research boundary layer and turbulent vs laminar flow on a scaled airframe in a wind tunnel. Wind tunnels are good for reasearching the shape of the a/c. And wind tunnel always comes with errors which can be corrected due to lots of experience.
    Wind tunnel, CFD and flight test are all needed.

    in reply to: How would you bring down a B-2? #2599064
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Last time i checked, Iran was either a member or becoming a member of the Shanghai pact. Kind of a Sino/Russian ( and Indian methinks) NATO. If this is true then any war would draw the intervention of Russia and China because it would be too much a loss of face for a country, especially China, with superpower ambitions to not honor a treaty when a member country is attacked. What position of leadership would that leave China in. Also, lets not play dumb and think that if Iran did join up that China and Russia didnt know that a Persian/US war wasnt a major possibility

    Bluff or Full house?

    Nothing like that would happen. China would not risk anything for Iran. Rather get a political bargain at the round table to let pass US lead security council proposal. And please scratch Russia fromt he list of superpowers. The funny behavior of Napoleon Putin cannot change the fact that Russia is a struggling local power.

    Many a bible-waving politician, or the average Joe Blow, believes B-2 is invincible. As we have
    been told by a couple of well versed members, B-2 is not nearly as untouchable as some wish it
    were.
    As for going after a CVN, how close a CVBG has to be to mount an attach on Iran. It is not just
    reaching the Iranian border and bombing the “sitting duck” Bushehr plant, they have hundreds of
    miles to go inside Iran. Isn’t the, once owned by Iran, Bahrain and its 5th fleet 100 miles from
    Iran?

    So, pretty much unveils your thinking. You neither have to be bible-waving or be stupid. The opinions laid down here on how to defeat a B-2 are either
    – theoretical BS without any touch to reality
    – things that would work under perfect conditions, but not in war
    – things that somebody heard off should be developed in Russia sometime, should include plasma stealth
    – just lots of stupid non-sense

    Let’s consider the best: Long-Wave Radar. What is that good for? Maybe you can get a position information, but it would demand you to
    – have a LWR
    – really look for targets beyond your normal scope (these radars were build for missile detection and are not in the inventory of Iran)
    – direct a fighter close to the bomber within visual range

    The USAF knows its bomber and after the Serbia loss of a F-117 I think they got their lesson. If they come at black night in bad weather, no fighter would find it even if the LWR directs it one mile close to it. And it still has ECM. 21 bombers all striking within one hour would totally overwhelm any defensive measure.

    Iran has further neither the hardware nor the tactical competence to strike a US CVBG. It would be a bloody mess with 100% of the aircrafts lost coming in close distance of the carrier.
    You served on a flat top, so imagine that your former comrades have some tactical liberties: position the CV 80 miles behind a line of 4 Aegis-cruisers would prevent any low-flying attacker from closing in.

    in reply to: BAe selling stake in AIRBUS (Merged) #569688
    Schorsch
    Participant

    Are the current ….”unpleasentries” in France affecting Airbus?

    Yes, on Thursday the factory was blocked for two hours by students. But that’s it. No other effects.

    To the topic:
    I don’t think it is wise to sell the share although I clearly see the point. BAe has a clear strategic focus. Airbus is more a German-French thing and they are actually giving the direction. Little space for BAe to make strategic decisions. So they can bail out now and get got money for it.

    I don’t see Airbus doomed. Just to put it into perspective: In 2002 Airbus had achieved 100 A380 orders, Boeing was struggling with the funny Sonic Cruiser. Everybody was talking about Boeing disappearing from the market, which was at that time BS. Same applies today other way round: Don’t speculate too much, it gets emberrassing in a few years.

    I am very worried about Boeing taking over BAe Systems. No sane government could allow that. Bad enough that my government does not have too much idea of defending strategic defense industry against foreign investors (HDW Docks in Kiel building U-Boat 212), but having the world market leader taking over the second biggest European aviation company doesn’t look good.

    Britain wrecked its car industry completely (BMW was glad to help) and has castrated its aviation industry from the leading European nation in the 1950s to a single company in 2000, which now reduced its share in civil aviation to that of a subcontractor instead of a decision taker. Let’s hope they get sober over there again.

Viewing 15 posts - 3,181 through 3,195 (of 3,480 total)