Scoot: mate the threat of loosing a major city in the US over a island that is no where near America is too great, America would back down… Hostage negotiation tactics.

PLAwolf: Mate you have a lot of faith in the PLAN which is a good thing, but you don’t know the area very well! The Yellow Sea is not very deep and subs diving to get into firing position in the Yellow sea would easily been seen via recon sattelites.

As for the PLAN sub commanders knowing the area, well yes they would indeed and so do most of the other naval people in the world. The Yellow sea is just not deep enough to fire off Sub missiles. Please bare with me, allow me toi give my view on how I’d retake Taiwan if I was the Paramount Ruler, of which I am not worthy!

The model I provided some times ago based on that of Patrick Robinson is halfway there. Deploy a contingent to the Gulf on a good will visit to Iran, this will preposition a strike in the Gulf. When they are half way there, publicly announce a major naval excercise of the PLAN with ops in the Blue water being the focus and anti SSBN patrols being the main task.

Slip three SSBN’s into a pre strike position in these places: 150E.35N; 125E.21N; 130W.25N This will preposition them with minimum reaction time for a strike on Tokyo, Seoul and The US West Coast. They could get away with this because of the intel over load happening, so many eyes watching the deployment to the Gulf and and the excercise.

Then you slip four Kilo’s off the east coast of Taiwan (this will handle the Carriers should they try to use them).

Deploy troop carriers on a southerly heading as a rouse this will make the world think that China is going to solve the Spratley problem once and for all, then if you time it right and the flyby passes when it should, whip out the troops in fast hover craft or hyrdofoil ships (something really fast- timing is of the essence). Start landing troops on the east coast of Taiwan. Naturally phone calls to the US will flow in requesting help as they start coming in send the diplomatic attache in each city to meet with the respective person with the message not to interfear and the ultimatum that the SSBN’s are in place. To force the statement, have one of the kilo’s take out a carrier escort and a ship in the Gulf take out an oil rig or an escort over there.

The US will see that you mean business, Japan won’t act without the US and South Korea might try to help but will be put off by the fleet in the Blue water area who were supposed to be on an excercise.

These are just my humble thoughts