I don’t have the attrition numbers. Only know that there was a J-7 crash last year complete with pictures. A lot of news often slip by and we’re luckly to catch that one. The CDF has listings of articles about crashes.

I also stressed an 80 to 90% percent chance that indeed Shenyang is now making the J-11B. Added to that probability is the definitive fact that Shenyang Liming announced the completion of a modern engine manufacturing facility to build a new model engine in August 2004. Now that the SKM offer appears out of the attention horizon, it appears very likely now that China has chosen the indigenous path for the J-11. The line of events do show a strong consistent and irreversible trend.

For you playing “hope” on the word “chance” is you playing on semantics on wishful thinking that “chance” can still mean your hope that China’s aviation industry is behind India’s. The race is only in your mind. No one else gives a damn. Semantics don’t change reality of the events leading up to this point.

Re: Indian 73,

Appears to be. Appear ready. “My original timeframe”. May get.

Hey Indian, dont wait up for any facts anytime.

Let’s just say there is an 80 to 90% chance it’s already happening. This is Feb already and it does not appear there will be any continuation to buy Russian kits. Everyday that passes, the greater the chances.

The facts remain: There is a J-11B as officially mentioned in PLAAF journal, there is a J-11 that flew with both WS-10A engines in latter end of 2003 and the Chinese stopped ordering kits (which has the engines) on May 2004.

‘Can’ is not quite likely, despite the presence of makeshift hardpoints. One problem is that VG wings are thin in order to fit the glove at the base and light enough to be movable. With that, they lack structural strength. That also makes them riskier in high G maneuvers.

You are certainly not credible. For example your outright made up story in protonriver that centurychina is reporting J-10 crashes when centurychina did no such thing.

It would have helped if he had posted something indeed logical. But it wasn’t. It was completely laughable. The article based its premise from a video of an F-16 model in a wind tunnel, not considering that China has shown the following like models in wind tunnels before: Su-32, Rafale, JH-7, J-8II and J-7G. This same analyst made a conclusion that China is developing an Su-32 like bomber because he saw this Su-32 like model in a wind tunnel. And you apparently failed to read the arguments.

At the same time, Brutegorilla has a reputation of having an axe to grind. That’s quite well known.

It depends on how far China wants to go. China can do a complete upgrade of the Flanker with Chinese engines, radar, avionics, FBW, composites.

> are you sure the SU27 sized local engines and radar are ready for service *today* ?
> when is expected IOC for the J10 armed with the WS-10x engine ?

But its not clear whether the J-11 contract allows for the export of J-11s. If the contract allows for the export of J-11s after a fixed time period, then China may sell advanced Flankers to allies like Pakistan.

> yeah sure. what you say sir.

I think you need to quote who are you quoting and mark your responses properly.

In the old Usenet style, the person whose text you are quoting are started with “>”. No one puts their responses next to “>”.

1. The Su-27 replacement radars and engines appear ready to be put into production this year. The radar appears to be a variation of the one used in the J-10. My original timeframe for this development was supposed to be around late 2006-2007.

2. The J-10 may get the WS-10A engine probably about the 2007-2008 period.

That one also has been disproved. The Romanian design has a high wing while the FC-1 is mid wing (F-16 is mid wing). The Romanian design does not have canted intakes and dual ventral fins in the rear.

If you look at the JF-17 from the top, and look at the F-16 from the top, the JF-17 is very similar. Obviuosly some of the aerodynamic research on the F-16 model is going to the JF-17.

If J-10 is too complex and expensive, why the hell are they making an Su-32 look alike?

Then why do they have a Rafale like model in the wind tunnel in the first place, as shown in another earlier video clip? This gives you another message. Like, the J-10 isn’t big and powerful and complex enough the first time, so they’re making it bigger and more complex with a second engine.

But isn’t that diametrically opposite in saying that the PLAAF is doing an f-16 model because they now want a simpler and lighter plane?

Make up your mind.