There are about three units.

The original unit (starts with “81” number with 5 digits”) is with a regiment of the 6th Division PLANAF located in Dachang base, Shanghai.

81669 – “69”
81760 – “70”
81761
81762
81763
81764
81765
81766
81767
81768
81769
81860
81861
81862
81863
81864
81865
81866
81867
81868 – “88”
~

The second unit (starts with an “82” number) is with a second regiment also of the same division, but located in a different base located somewhere in Zhejiang province. These are the first to have the JL-10A radar, although the older planes ni the first unit would also ahve been upgraded since then from the Tupe 232H radar.

82061 – “01”
82062
82063
82064
82065
82066
82067
82068
82069
82160
82161
82162
82163
82164
82165
82166
82167
82168
82169
82260
~

The third unit, which is made of true JH-7As, is with a regiment of the 9th Division PLANAF. The numbers start with “83”.

83091
83092
83093
83094
83095
83096
83097
83098
83099
83190
83191
83192
83193
83194
83195
83196
83197
83198
83199
83290
~

All three units are with the Dong Hai fleet (East Sea fleet). I expect six more units of 20 to 24 aircraft each to be built, three for the North Sea fleet and three for the South Sea fleet.

This pic last year showed some of the darker colored J-11s with the lighter grey nose. These probably belonged to the 7th Division.

The dark one on in the rear.

I do wonder if the Indo Su-30s are MK2 standard.

Also, “contemplating” does not sound very good prospects to me, when the Chinese used to be in a “must have willing to pay any price” basis. The fact that the Russians are running to Beijing to sell their products rather than the Chinese going to Moscow to buy stuff (as they did before) does not sound good to me either. But of course, Russian journalists tend to be quite optimistic.

It carries the LETRI JL-10A radar. As a naval strike aircraft it has to carry a radar, and that AshM in question the YJ-83 is active guided—just like all traditional AshMs—with an added feature of having a command guided datalink.

Monopulse tracking focal plane antenna with sidelobes
Slotted guides for scanning
I/J band operating frequency (X-band ISCC)
80km > lock on range on look up mode
54km lock on range on look down mode
low, mid and high PRF
Mil Std. 1553 compatible

among the different modes supported
RWS
TWS 6 to 8 targets
TWS bugged 4 targets PL-12 engagement mode
Ground and sea search modes

Supports:
YJ-83 AshM
PL-12 AAM
PL-8 AAM
PL-5 AAM
YJ-91/Kh-31P ARM when used with a pod
Various LGBs (KAB500L, LGB250) when used with a pod

With JH-7A around…I doubt there is any need for FC-1.

Two very different niches. Not the same thing.

Are you certain that none of those units are using any of the Su-27SKs or UBKs supplied from Russia? And who’s to say that they aren’t adjusting serials or skipping numbers to give the impression of more aircraft in service? I’d also be curious to know when these aircraft were seen at these locations. Maybe a unit moved around a bit due to one reason or another.

The 1st, 6th and 7th Division regs are pure J-11 except for the UBKs. The 2nd, 19th and 33rd uses a mix of Russian made and Chinese planes. If you look at the numbers there, the bort numbers I provided are the ones that correspond to the Chinese J-11s, while the numbers not there are Russian made.

The Chinese do not try to give the impression of having more aircraft in service when in fact, their efforts tend to be more in the contrary. This is why in so many published pictures, the bort numbers are removed. They want to give the impression that they have less so not to “threaten” neighbors, and to deliberately foster an impression to potential enemies to make the fatal mistake of underestimating them.

The 1st, 6th and 7th Div regs, which are pure J-11 regs, should *now* have unit numbering like this.

#1 to #30 J-11s
#31 to #34 UBKs. (These UBKs are either formerly from the 19th, 2nd or 33rd)

Of the mixed groups,

The 2nd Division should go like this

#27 UBK retained, possibly renumbered
#28 UBK transferred
#29 UBK transferred
#30 UBK retained, possibly renumbered
#31 UBK transferred
#32 UBK transferred

#33 to #47 are all Russian made SKs

#38 is a possible J11 replacing an original Su-27SK that could have been lost. Or simply it may be the original plane that was overhauled and have a new paint job.

#49 to #52 J-11s
#53 UBK transferred from the 33rd
#54 to #61 J-11s
#62 UBK transferred from the 33rd

If the #3X to #6X numbers are retained by this division, it makes you wonder if they have a new J-11 division that would fill the numbers #1 to #3X.

The 19th Division reg may go like this now

#1 to #4 UBK now J-11 (Original UBKs may either been lost, transferred or renumbered)
#5 to #24 Su-27SKs, original Russian made
#25 to #26 UBKs (possibly renumbered, replaced with J-11s)
#27 to #30 J-11s
#31 to #34 UBKs (range of numbers where the UBKs may have been renumbered to)

You can see the pattern here. The reorganization of the groups suggest that all the lower numbers from #1 to #30 are reserved for single seaters while the numbers 3X and higher are saved for the twin seaters. This makes it easy and convenient to transfer the UBKs out of this group to train another regiment if needed without changing the numbers. My hypothesis is that the J-10 regs would also follow this pattern.

The 33rd Div reg

Originally #49 to #76 are UBKs, #77 to #80 are J-11s.

But as UBKs between #49 to #76 are transferred out, I would expect them to be replaced by J-11s, such as #53 and #62. Eventually all the UBKs would be transferred out to, leaving the 33rd to become a regular J-11 regiment. Since this unit has 28 UBKs, it can be presumed that China originally planned a total of 7 J-11 regiments, of which 3 are fulfilled (becomes 4 if the 2nd Div does indeed have a J-11 reg). [Ultimately, the 33rd will be renumbered under a #1 to #3X number accordingly].

Incidentally 7 regs of 30 J-11s each amounts to 210 aircraft. Each regiment has 4 UBKs. So the 28 UBKs means 4 UBKs per reg, for 7 regs. 200 aircraft divided by 7 means 28-29 aircraft per reg, which is my original estimate for the number of J-11s per reg. Unless the type is full reverse engineered, China may buy more UBKs directly from Russia when they plan to build J-11s in excess of 200.

Even with 28 aircraft per regiments, there are already 3 confirmed J-11 regs, and that already amounts to 84, not counting the J-11s in the mixed regiments, of which more than 10 have been confirmed in photo. of which many of these are already confirmed in photograph, and you can just add the numbers once you connect the dots.

It’s quite low, because out of the five presumed lost, three were irreparably damaged by typhoon and replaced. In my opinion, one plane was lost around 1994, enough to create a ripple effect expressed in some changes in PLAAF leadership.

The number of planes damaged and in the shop, is probably higher (e.g. landing accidents, birds getting eaten in the intake, etc,.).

I also get the impression that China is quick to fill in the lost jets,, first by buying used Russian AF jets, then with manufactured J-11s.

Do I think that the Chinese are building planes in excess of the number of kits supplied? Yes.

Do I think that the Chinese need to use kits? No. Even if they still had to use Russian engines and radar, even these components can be ordered seperately. These components don’t have to be supplied in a kit form. I can have an entirely Chinese built airframe, and the engine components ordered seperately and have them installed. My impression from one Chinese article is that the kits have now been exchanged for a large inventory of said components in equivalent (China ordered large numbers of components in 2003 and 2004 as well). These can be used as spare parts for existing aircraft or used to fill in blanks in the indigenous production.

The real threat on the J-11 production comes from the J-10. When you keep hearing rumors about PLAAF officials praising the J-10 and saying it betters the Su-27 and Su-30 in air combat, you really wonder if they will ever make the hard decision to cut the J-11 production right there and go with the J-10 completely. Whether or not you personally believe the J-10 is better than the Su-27 series is not the point, since we are not the PLAAF leadership. The point is that whatever the ones handling the purse strings believe in, is what will determine that course.