crobatoSome stuff I picked up from here and there… 😮
SK – 36 (2 batches of 20, 16)
UBK – 40 (3 batches of 6, 6, 28)
MKK – 76 (2 batches of 38) [1 confirmed crashed]
MK2 – ?? [1 already crashed according to Hui Tong 🙁 ]
J-11 – ?? (now I am still confused with the J-11 numbers)
My estimates of J-11 built? Around 110 to 120.
1st Division – 30 planes
#1 to #30
2nd Division – 12 planes
#49, #50, #51, #52, #54, #55, #56, #57, #58, #59, #60, #61
(#38 might be a J-11 replacing a lost SK).
#53 and #62 are UBKs formerly from the 33rd.
6th Division – 30 planes
#1 to #30
7th Division – 30 planes
#1 to #30
19th Division – 10 planes
#1, #2, #3, #4, #25, #26, #27, #28, #29, #30
(#1 to #4 UBKs have either been transferred, moved to higher numbers, or crashed).
33rd Division – 18 planes
#53, #55 or #65, #62, #77, #78, #79, #80 plus 11 other planes
The UBKs being transferred out of this group is being replaced with J-11s.
If 2nd Division turns out to have a pure J-11 regiment with numbers #1 to #30, the estimate goes up to 140-150.
It sounds high and optimistic, but this is my sincere conclusions. Others may have a different opinion or estimate, but looking at the orbat patterns right now, this is what I have to say.
As for the MK2/MK3 issue, they appear to be trying to decide if the next order of Su-30MKs for late next year delivery would be MK2 or MK3.
crobatoYes it does look rather CG. But it raises a few serious thoughts here and there. KANWA has raised the possibility that China might yet order another pair of Sovies after the two they expected to receive next year. If so, it is interesting to see if the third generation of Sovies would use the VLS Shtil-1 arrangement.
Likewise, it is interesting to see with a revised 052B arrangement as well.
crobatoJohn, all J-11s built in China should have come from those 95 kits. Alhough the proportion of Russian components would vary over the years, with the earliest having the highest percentage of Russian content..
There is some confusion as to how many J-11s were built. The lowest recent figure I saw was 49 which means there is another 46 kits unassembled.
There are a few who believe that there are actually more than 95 J-11s built which means that there are planes with all chinese components except for the engines. Crobato had some theories on squadron and bort numbers which shows more than 95 J-11s. Perhaps he could explain again here.
On the conservative side, I would put the number between 60 J-11s. Let’s not forget that there were about 40 Su-27SK single seaters delivered fully assembled to China in the 1990s. These are externally identical to the J-11. So single-seat Flankers we see in China would number around 100.
There are 40 UBKs and about 100 MKKs for the two-seat Flankers.
Generally speaking, previously I have assumed that a J-11 regiments should have 24 aircraft, (20 J-11s and 4 UBKs). But I’ve bumped that up to 30 aircraft (26 J-11s and 4 UBKs), then to 32 (28 J-11s and 4 UBKs). Finally, I think that with the pic of J-11 #30, I have the feeling it’s 30 J-11s and 4 UBKs.
Although J-11 30 belongs to the 19th Division, this reg had hand me down Sues from the 3rd Div, and these planes are the oldest Su-27s anywhere in China, since they belonged to the first batch ever purchased by China in 1992. Aand in so doing, getting old second hands, the 19th Div is probably the ugly duckling of the Chinese Flanker regs.
For them to have a J-11 #30 would mean that other regs are likely to have gotten J-11s first to reach a 30 plane number on the SKs alone, especially the 1st, 6th and 7th Division regs.
The 19th should have 20 old Su-27SKs and 6 Su-27UBKs. These are the planes in the first batch (#1 to #26). It’s fair to assume that some of these planes have been lost in the years, at least one or two of the UBKs.
I think this reg added at least 8 J-11s, and the surviving UBKs are renumbered from 28 to 32 (one pic of UBK that had been renumbered to #30). Then another two J-11s are added (for J-11 #30), and the UBKs are shifted to #30 to #34. I think that one UBK from the 33rd has been transferred to the 19th to train for the J-11s. I believe that some of the later J-11s have some upgraded equipment which is shared by the 33rd Div UBKs (last batch of UBKs delivered from 2001-2003), such that these UBKs are used to train pilots in the later J-11s.
So my count is this.
1st Division — About 30 J-11s, with 3 or four UBKs formerly from the 33rd.
2nd Division — #49, #50, #51, #52, #54, #55 are J-11s. It is probable that #56 to #61 are also J-11s. You hav a number from 6 to 12, not counting attrition replacements in the other numbers. The current #38 is a possilble J-11 replacement by attrition of its former Su-27SK holder. #53 and #62 are UBKs from the 33rd. At least two to three UBKs in the range of #27 to #32 has been transferred out. I am not counting yet the rumored possibility that 2nd Division actually has two Flanker regs, with a new J-11 reg that is numbered from #1 to #30.
6th Division — About 30 J-11s, with possibly 3 to 4 UBKs from the 33rd.
7th Divsion — From 28 to 30 J-11s. 3 of the UBKs are formerly from the 33rd, one from the 2nd (#32).
19th Division — I believe about 10 J-11s at least.
33rd Division — #77, 78, 79 and #80 are J-11s. Planes from #49 to #76 are UBKs. At least 9 to 10 of the UBKs may have been transferred out. with the high possibility they have been replaced by J-11s.
At least One J-11 testing in with the WS-10A engines.
No idea about numbers of J-11 replacing Su-27SKs from attrition.
If you add this up, it’s certainly more than 95. I think the number of kits delivered to China is not 95 but 105 as other sources stated. Then China built a few on top of that without any kits.
Now for the difference in flight characteristics, these can be attributed tot the following.
1. Change of weight and C/G due to the WS-10A engine weight difference. It could be slightly heavier.
2. Change of weight and C/G due to Chinese radar on the nose, which might be lighter.
3. Replacement of the FBW by either a Chinese copy of the Su-27’s analog FBW (with the differences in manufacturing tolerance creating this change in behavior), or that the FBW was replaced by a digital one using a reprogrammed variation of those already on the J-10 and JH-7A.
4. Use of different alloys and materials (e..g composite) in the airframe.
5. All previous four factors working together.
crobatoNo surprise. Chinese Su-27s appear to have a radar reflective tint in the front part of the canopy similar to those seen in USAF F-16s. Since the tint does not cover the entire canopy, just the front part, it’s obviously there not for sun protection.
crobatoA flat tire in the J-11?
crobatoAlso to be considered is the fact that 250 engines does not imply 250 airframes-you do need to keep spares on hand. 200 aircraft would seem more than reasonable given a 250 engine order. Another thing to consider is the fact that production of the J-10 won’t hit its maximum rate for a while after full-scale production commences. Regardless, this would seem to be good news for the J-10 program.
Accordingly, its one spare engine per plane. So two AL-31FNs per J-10. However, according to KANWA, there already appears to be an agreement to have supplied engines for this year, which came after 54 engines finished delivering in January of 2004.
It’s fair to say that at least 150 of these engines may end up as spares, if no additional orders are made. The first 100 engines may end up being produced into the plane, while subsequent shipments will only be spares. That means the AL-31FN powered J-10A model is probably only good for about two to three years before the model is changed to a new version. This still means that the J-10 will shift either to the WS-10A or a more advanced version of the AL-31FN down the line, approximately around the second half of 2007.
crobatoI think this means the Chinese has lost hope on their indigenous engine but at the same time it means J-10 is abt to be officially induct!
Then why are they (Shenyang Liming) building their most modern plant to make such engines? Construction began in August 2004.
crobatoAdrian,
There is no such thing as an “Altix” family of chips. The Altix servers are based on Intel’s Itanium processor family, and shared memory architecture ain’t exactly something new. And the software? It’s Linux, a product which is a compilation of work from all programmers around the world.
As for Russia’s lack of “sophistication” in programming, the Russians have already made a major dent in the commercial PC games market, which is some of the most sophisticated code you will ever see. I’m not talking about Tetris either. To give you two examples, there is the flight sim “Lock-On”, and the other flight sim, “IL-2 Sturmovik” and its various expansions.
crobatoSmokey trails are deliberate for show with video clips. They are useful in visually tracing the path of the missile, which is the important data you want to know.
crobatoAw very interesting indeed. This somehow helps establish that J-10s are operating in the Nanjing MR area where the AWACS are undergoing testing. This however assumes that this picture is not a PS, since it’s easy to do so for a picture like this (I am about a 50/50 belief here).
crobatoa spin-off of the MKK, not the MK2.
Given that the aircraft isn’t ordered with PGMs and ASMs, and a whole load of other stuff, chances are, you’re seeing an A2A only subset, and very likely that the plane is being used in a UBK like role as a combat trainer.
crobatoI am not sure, but as it seems RuAF is now going with the N011M for their Su-27SM upgrade rather than the Zhuk-MSF. IAF has gone for the N011M instead for their Su-30MKIs.
The Russians have not gone yet to using the N011M. Currently all the Su-27SM upgrades are still N001V based and will remain so for some time to come. The third stage Su-27SM upgrade plan actually called for using the Zhuk-MS originally.
Chances are, given the pocket book costs, the Russians are most likely to end up with Panda, which is to add the Pero phase array antenna upgrade on the existing N001V system.
crobatoSo which new and more up to date brochure or official Phazotron release did you base the above on?
The Kopyo-F and FC-1 is simply a marketing tactic to get funding in order to finish the product. There’s no tally. The Bison actually uses the Kopyo-M.
It’s actually called Kopyo-21, not Kopyo-M. I’m not sure and I don’t think the label Kopyo-M is used any more, just like Zhuk-M isn’t being used any more either.
crobatoOn the LGB issue, there is no current evidence that the MKKs are being used with LGBs. All displays have shown use of TV guided bombs. Even with if laser targeting is possible with the IRST, it offers no advantage over level bombing with TV guided weapons.
All the Russian LGBs that were bought by China (KAB500L, LGB250, etc,.) appear to be assigned for JH-7A and Q-5D/E.
On the PLAAF/ASM vs. PLANAF/AshM roles, I have yet to see a PLAAF aircraft actually carry an AshM of any sort; every PLA plane that carried an AshM appeared to be PLANAF. I could be wrong; I would like to see a picture of any PLANAF plane with some air to ground missile or PGM or PLAAF plane with an AshM. (Iron bombs and rockets are dual use for both land and sea targets).
On the Su-30MK2, I believe that the PLAAF MKK will be upgraded to the MK2 standard, which will use the MR400 pods, etc,. but their equipment will be distinct from the PLANAF MK2s. The upgrade will only be at best, minor surgery.
crobatoOld brochures Harry. The final products probably didn’t have specs as rosy as the brochures indicate. For example the Kopyo M designation is simply nixed for the UPG and neither does the radar tally to the plane in the picture like the Kopyo-F/FC-1 brochure. And it’s just Kopyo-21 now, with the TWS engagement mode scaled to two targets. The Bison will only carry two R-77s anyway, and it’s better to concentrate radar resources to get a better quality and more ECM resistant two target tracking than a diluted lesser quality and dispersed four target tracking.
With srbin’s question, I never heard of China actually expressing interest in the N011M. Probably the Zhuk-MSF. China appears deciding on the N001VEPF or the Zhuk MSE right now. They are much more interested in a reasonable price with immediate large scale delivery, rather than try to get the best but most expensive possible.
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