thobbesSeahawk I totally agree with you. As Stalin would say “Quantity has a quality of its own.”
However there is another big part of the equation that most aviation enthusiasts ignore: operational costs.
And not just cost of spares but cost of fuel, cost of training, cost of salaries for pilots/technicians etc.
The West can no longer afford quantity. In fact other than certain Asian and Arab countries, no one really can afford quantity let alone both quality and quantity.
And cost of quality has skyrocketed out of control.
It’s why the main aircraft involved in the last several “major” wars are still the Teen series fighters, Tornados, Mirages and MiG-21/-23/-29 (first generation) that were the mainstays in the 1980s.
It’s why the main aircraft used in most other wars fought today are Mi-8/-17, Mi-25s, Su-25s and turboprop trainers.
thobbesOh come on, you’re not seriously trying to claim that the Libyan air defences were ever anything more than a light to mild threat are you? If NATO were to try doing those same ops with the old generation of fighters against an adversery that’s properly equiped and trained they’d lose half their forces within hours!
The only issue is that other than starting WWIII with China, properly equipped and trained potential opponents don’t really exist. 😀
thobbesSo given new government has there been any news on French military acquiring additional Rafales?
From memory plan is for 272 (212 for air force and 60 for Navy). However only 180 a/c have been ordered to date.
thobbesStill… that’s an awful lot of jets to lose. Surely they’ll take on an extra squadron or two of Typhoons if it comes to that. Or UCAVs if we’re talking post-2020.
Spain’s in such an economic bind that one option they’re looking at is delaying Typhoon deliveries.
24% unemployment has that effect!
thobbesFrom memory Spain’s established force is a total of about 160 a/c in 9 operational and 2 OCUs.
Currently Eurofighters are scheduled to serve in 4 squadrons and 1 OCU (11 and 14 Fighter Wings).
That leaves 5 squadrons plus an OCU equiped with 86 F/A-18A/Bs.
Don’t know if under current budget pressures there is any plans to retire F/A-18s or Mirage F1s without replacement (i.e. reduce number of squadrons).
Spanish F/A-18s are all pretty old now either being delivered in the 1980s or ex-USN airframes delivered in the 1990s.
thobbesNew developments:
Following statement is particularly hilarious:
It found that estimated O&S costs for a fleet of 85 F-35A fighters had increased from €2.9 billion in 2001 to €14.2 billion this year, without Parliament ever being informed of the increase.
Just a minor oversight! :p
thobbesSeems to me we need another F-104 or F-16 style program where these smaller NATO partners get together to purchase aircraft.
But they probably need to expand the program to include joint training, joint logistics etc.
Basically a North European Joint Fighter Force.
thobbesWhat does the cold war gone hot have to do with Danish defence needs of today?
I think we all agree that Denmark faces no direct threat to the homeland. Fighters will therefore be needed for air policing and NATO ops. So let us look at NATO ops.
Say the budget allows to buy 12 F-35A or 18 Grippen E/F.
It think it is conservative to say that 1/3 of the fleet will be down to maintenance needs on average.
Which leaves us with 8 F-35 or 12 Grippen.
Denmark needs to have an air policing CAP ready. That means 2 aircraft at 15min + 2 more as back-ups that can be used for training.
That leaves us with 4 F-35 or 8 Grippen.
A easy NATO mission like the Baltic air policing requires F-4 aircraft to de deployed.
Operations like Libya usual saw at least 4 aircraft been made available each day. To generate 4 planes/sorties (no. of sorties depends on mission duration) each day the current standard is to deploy 6 aircraft. F-35A can not do this, Grippen could.So with 18 Grippen Denmark would have “2 attrition reserves” / training aircraft available, while being able to meet its CAP needs and still deploy 4 effective aircraft to NATO.
With F-35 they would be limited to 2 to 3 aircraft deployed. Barely enough for NATO Air Policing duties.
I think in the future minor NATO forces will generally not contribute combat assets to any actions due to low number of assets as well as increasing obsolesence of many partner’s forces (e.g. Spain’s ageing F/A-18s with no replacement in sight)
Libya was a swansong for NATO combat ops.
thobbesThe other thing Serbia would’ve lost with the breakup of Yugoslaiva was the aviation designers from other parts of Yugoslavia.
Same thing with production – from memory most of the J-22 and G-4 production was in Mostar, Bosnia.
That meant a large percentage of the workers, project managers etc were from Bosnia as well. I doubt many would’ve transferred to Serbia during the Bosnian War (Mostar was mainly Muslim and Croatian).
In any case most would be nearing retirement age by now.
Serbia upgraded 15 G-4s but I doubt it actually has any jet production capability.
thobbesSome rumours – apparently based on a AFM article (I don’t buy AFM anymore so can’t corroborate):
http://www.trdefence.com/2012/03/01/greek-crisis-to-hurt-hellenic-air-force/
Greece’s most devestating financial crisis in modern times and the growing possibility of a default on its loans have not only progressed its rating from Germany-level credit to average, on to junk, below junk and now to likely default, but also have begun to dramatically limit and even reduce its military capabilities. The damage is especially stark among the ranks of the Hellenic Air Force (HAF).
Here’s a brief list of probable changes to HAF:
Vintage A-7E and TA-7C s are all to be retired before 2013 due to high maintenance costs.
Two squadrons of F-4E AUPs will be merged into one squadron.
RF-4E recon aircraft are to be withdrawn in late 2012 while 6 will be kept for use with the 3 Thales ASTAC SIGINT pods. Recon ops to be transferred to the F-16 Block 52+’s with the 2 Goodrich DB-110 pods.
Mirage 2000s face possible operational cuts due to small size of fleet.
T-2 Buckeyes are very likely to be withdrawn in 2 yrs due to lack of spare parts.
Many T-6A Texan IIs have been placed in long-term storage due to shortages in operational budgets.
NH-90 helicopter acquisition delayed due to major design flaws along with higher costs of operation relative to the Blackhawk. Acquisition will probably not be finished before 2015.
EMB145H AWACS assets face possibility of reduction of the fleet from 4 to 2 aircraft.
HAF airbases planned for downsizing and/or outright closure include:
In Larisa AFB on Crete, the F-16 Block 52s will go to Araxos following the retirement of A-7s.
Aircraft storage and maintenance facilities in Agrinion face budgetary cuts.
Similar cuts hame things difficult in Santorini (QRA detachment)
Tympaki (location of S-300 air defence missiles) is burdened by lower budgets.
CL-415 water bombers in Thessaloniki will go to Elefsis.
thobbesThose Portuguese birds have been upgraded to MLU standard relatively recently so aren’t junk.
And in case people haven’t noticed, all military procurement is political in nature.
There are other advantages to F-16s – massive source of spares, potentially other cheap ex-US/NATO jets, interoperability with NATO forces (Gripen requires it’s own supply chain whilst an F-16 shares supply chains with numerous other partners that use the F-16).
thobbesI don’t think USN F/A-18Cs would offer any advantages in terms of lifespan.
Some of them have already been SLEPed to 8,000 hours after reaching 6,000 hours.
Furthermore their usage is a lot more intensive due to carrier operations and almost continuous warfare since 1999 (1991 if you include no-fly zone operations over Bosnia and Iraq).
Even some of the F/A-18E/Fs are already up to 3,000 hours.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Aging-Aircraft-Cracks-in-USAs-FA-18-fleet-05131/
The Australian RAAFs have already been upgraded to C equivalent anyhow.
thobbesPlease correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the Apace deisgned to hunt Soviet tanks and not Soviet air defence systems?
And wasn’t that tank hunting as part of a combined arms approach in support of ground troops and not as an indepdendent interdiction unit?
Iraq 2003 proved that attack helos should not be used for independent interdiction – you have fixed wing fighter bombers for that role!
thobbes19K11 is that sarcasm?
USAF made some big mistakes in 1950s and 1960s that led to problems in countering North Vietnamese MiG-17s.
Luckily they learnt their lesson well.
thobbesToo bad they couldn’t slep the AMX into a two sweater to replace the F-5’s. They really need an Su-30 counter and neither M2K nor Gripen offer that. They really should look at Rafael and just pull the trigger. If they partnered with India on Rafael they should cross-license Tejas. It fits their light fighter need.
Why on earth do they need a Su-30 counter? Last time FAB got involved in external warfighting was WWII.
Latin America is relatively stable compared to say the Asian subcontinent, Middle East or Asia,
Brazil has a reasonable relationship with Venezuela.
Only thing even resembling any arms race in Latin America is Peru-Ecuador and even that is reasonably quiet these days.
Their main concerns are blowing up drug runners and narco militias – hence the success of the EMB314 Super Tucano and hence Brazil’s general contentment with upgraded F-5s for air policing work.
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