Sure the ones purchasing Russian or Chinese 5th Generation Fighters.;)

So according to you India doesn’t need F-35 as it’s purchasing Russian 5th generation jets in the form of FGFA? 😛

Most Military are not good at forecasting the next war. Which, is how we got the term “the next war won’t be like the last”.

The last several have been very predictable.

And good generals make the next war be fought on their own terms and conditions. Like those German fellows in WWII or Americans in Kosovo or Iraq in 1991 or Israelis in 1967.

As for the F-35 being the right solution. It’s by far the most capable……

Depends on the war! F-35 doesn’t bring anything to an insurgency like Afghanistan or Iraq that an A-10 or AH-64 can’t do better. And it’s a bit of overkill for anti-terror interdiction missions that are usually flown by UAVs.

As stated all stealth fleet would have been of little or no utility in last several wars.

That would be nice. Yet, you can’t get the world to come together and stop innocent civilians from being killed in Africa to Syria.

That’s small fry compared to the old days. Do you know how many millions were killed in WWII or WWI?

Yet, you sound like the world is a peaceful place and most nation should disarm???

Most nations have effectively disarmed. They have token military forces with no external offensive capability or little or no defensive capability.

I was of course talking in general terms. Israel needs and is purchasing the F-35. Yet, countries like the Saudi, UAE, Iraq, Jordan, etc. etc. have not and do not. At least in the next decade or so…….Perfect example of that is the Saudi’s. The can afford as many F-35’s as they want. Yet, the current fleet of Typhoons and Eagles are more than a match for the Iranian Air Force. Of course 10-15 years from now that will likely change. Could even change sooner if Iran would buy more advance fighters from Russia or China. Yet, the latter is not likely……….

If Uncle Sam let the Arabs buy F-35, they would. Instead Uncle Sam is only letting Israel buy them so they can maintain technological dominance in the region.

They like their toys and I’m sure they would like to match Israel even though they’d never wage war on each other.

Egypt would probably also get F-35 if Uncle Sam subsidised them. But that’s not going to happen – Uncle Sam didn’t let them buy F-15Es.

Anything is possible over the next 2-3 decades if not longer. For example Romania only has the resources for some second hand F-16’s Today. Yet, has far “Greater Aspirations”! So, maybe in 20 years they may purchase the F-35. If, not “New” maybe “Second Hand Examples”? Hardly far fetched at all……….Personally, in that case I would say “likely”.

So maybe in like 2040?

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Wrong Wrong Wrong………..We’ve discussed this before! If, you take the cost of Late Model F-16 Blk 50/60 fully equipped. Then figure the cost of inflation from say 2020 on………Then the F-35 is extremely competitive in price and vastly more capable. As even today the former is on the 100 Million Dollar Bracket!

You’ve missed the point.

You can buy F-16s without all the awesome targetting and sensor systems that are built into an F-35 but that came as optional pods for an F-16.

You could even still buy new F-16A/B-15 at the same time you could buy F-16C/D-30 (e.g. Portugal, Thailand).

You could also buy cheap second hand F-16A/Bs from Europe or US (including AIM-7 Sparrow capable F-16 ADF versions).

F-35 will never do any of the above. You buy it will all the toys pre-built in. And it’s not going to serve in the numbers where there’s going to be hundreds of low houred F-35s sitting in bone yards.

And not everyone wants all the capabilities now or even ever – hence Austria’s stripped down Eurofighters.

Your living in never never land! The F-16 hasn’t been cheap since the first “A” Model. Which, only included one Internal Cannon and two Wing Tip Sidewinders.

Load of tosh – F-16A/Bs were sold right up to 1990s. And they were far cheaper than F/A-18s or Mirage 2000s.

Honestly, the most important price isn’t the lowest. It’s “Price” vs “Capabilities”.

You assume everyone wants 5th generation capabilities. Which is wrong.

I just proved to you in a previous post that not everyone even wants 4th generation.

Clearly, the overall number of fighters has decreased every decade and that will continue for a whole list of reasons. Yet, the F-35 isn’t replacing just the F-16 but a long list of fighters. From the A-10, AV-8B, F-15, F-16, F/A-18, etc. etc. etc.. Plus, that doesn’t even including European or Russian Types. Which, the F-35 may replace too………

What you don’t understand is that those F-35s will have long lives in very small fleets unlike the large number of F-16s that were made surplus early on due to end of Cold War.

E.g. Netherlands sold a few of it’s F-16s because they didn’t need them because they were cutting the fleet down. Do you think they’ll have dozens of spare F-35s to cut when they’re only going to buy 36-58 of them?

Sames applies to Belgium (brought 180 F-16s, currently operates 59-ish), Denmark, Portugal and Norway are less extreme but similar story.

No-one else has cut their F-16s or F/A-18s much but all the planned purchases are far lower than F-16 purchases.

Hence lower airframe numbers for second hand market.

Again so who are you talking about???

You were recently disputing a USN admiral who was talking about F/A-18E/Fs. Except you either have a memory poorer than a goldfish or you’re just trying to get out of your own stupidity.

Nonetheless, the US Government is talking Major Military Cut Backs. In addition it is having a hard time just providing funding for the F-35 and some very important projects. So, do you honestly think the US is going to spend Billions to push forward the NGAD Program now??? Especially, with the expected threat from Russia and China. REALLY

You know people said the same thing about F-22. However along came F-35 and F-22 numbers got gutted.

If you think the USA is going to stop developing new aircraft and give up its technological lead, then you really are stupid.

LOL We started yesterday with Denmark and the Netherlands. You couldn’t win that debate.

I merely said they don’t need the F-35 especially if it costs them other capabilities (their generals/politicans do).

It amazes me you think you’re entitled to an opinion but no-one else is, especially if it’s not 100% pro-F-35.

That fact is obvious as production of most 4.5 Generation Fighters is slowing down.

It amazes me how much you don’t pay attention to anything other than F-35 propaganda.

Rafale production is static for to 2020 and then the French still have some 40 aircraft outstanding out of initial 180 order. Plus there’s about 50 Mirage 2000Ds that will need to be replaced.

SU-35 production is just starting.

Su-30 orders just keep coming (e.g. Vietnam just ordered another 12 and Indonesia is planning another 12-16).

J-10 production is continuing for PLAAF with new variant (J-10B) due to enter production soon.

JAS-39E/F hasn’t even entered production.

Sure they won’t be in the same number of jets produced as F-35 but they’re certainly not slowing down.

F/A-18E/F/G and Typhoon are winding up in terms of actual numbers.

Please, enlighten the members. Personally, I am all ears and can’t wait to hear your take on the subject??? Oh, maybe you think the majority of the Free World is just going to give up “Fighters” altogether??? Again, I am all ears!!! Maybe you think Russia and China are going to vastly increase Fighter Sales as it compares to the US…………

Never said “Free World is giving up fighters”. Just stated they’re giving up meaningful numbers.

Do you seriously think that 14 JAS-39 or 18-24 F-35 or 12-30 F-16A/Bs is a viable airforce, especially i?

If, so overkill why is hardly anybody purchasing 4/4.5 Generation Fighters???

Hardly anyone?

Why even the USN is still buying F/A-18E/Fs.

Germany, Italy, France, UK, Spain are still inducting large numbers of 4.5th generation jets. In fact 3 out of 5 big Western European countries have not ordered a single 5th generation jet and won’t for many,many years.

Why are Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea (F/A-50) buying 4th generation aircraft?

Or Pakistan with JF-17?

Or India, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE and Qatar are all looking at or have recently brought 4.5 generation.

And Brazil is also looking at 4.5th generation.

In addition not one country has left the JSF Program.

Which, you say is overkill

In most situations yes. Have you actually read anything about US/NATO air operations?!?

Name a situation where an all F-35/stealth fleet would’ve been necessary in the last 10-15 years?

and plagued with problems!

Never said that.

As a matter of fact Israel and Japan have selected the F-35 in addition to the JSF Partners.

Except Israel signed on in 2003 as part of System Development and Demonstration (SDD) component.

Plus, we have others in the pipeline. (i.e. Singapore) As a matter of fact when production get’s up and rolling at full capacity. I think we will see an explosion of orders. (just my opinion)

I don’t see an explosion of orders (other than partner states). The reason for no explosion in orders is that a lot of potential buyers are loading up on 4.5th generation jets in 2015-2020 period.

Your talking of course at the very bottom of the scale. With the vast majority not having the resources to purchase “New Fighters”.

Since when is France or Germany the bottom of the scale? Or Malaysia or South Korea or all those rich Arabs?

I don’t think we are going to see the days. When the USAF and USN can both fund Air Superiority Fighters separate from each other! Like back in the 1970’s with the F-14 and F-15. As Fighters are more complex and expensive every Generation.

Yet according to you F-35 is still same price as F-16!

Though I do agree on this post.

Obvious you haven’t heard or don’t take seriously the terms. “history keeps repeating itself” or “the next war will not be like the last”. Simple phrases but very true ones………..

Actually I am looking at history – the history of the world since 1945 when the first nuclear weapons were used.

As for “next war won’t be like the last” how do you know F-35 is the right solution then? Most smart military types are pretty good at forecasting the next war anyway – e.g. Britain, Germany and pre-purge USSR had all switched onto idea of mechanised combined arms warfare.

According to you everyone needs to maintain vast military armadas just in case. That in itself is begging for a war.

Be happy the world is largely disarmed and more peaceful since at least 1991 and possibly 1945 than it was in the past.

And in the end what will 12 F-35s or even 12 F-22s do against an opponent really intent on invasion and has a massive force to it with?

NO, I have often said some countries have no need for 5th Generation Fighters. With the Middle East being a good example that I have quoted several times. As most countries in the region would face Iran as the most likely threat and hardly need the F-35.

Actually Middle East is a bad example.

Israel needs 5th generation to maintain overkill capability. That opens up 5th generation requirement for other Middle Eastern players.

Middle East is a helluva lot more volatile than Europe!

No, just stated that the F-35 will be purchased over decades. So, while some countries won’t purchase the F-35 today. They will very likely do so at some point. If, you want an example Poland would be one I would list…

And I’ve been stating all along that Poland will be buying F-35 down the line to replace MiG-29.

But F-35 is not an F-16 – it’s nowhere near as cheap even in it’s more basic configuration.

The brilliance of F-16 is you could get them very cheap without all the extra bits and pieces that F-35 comes inbuilt with.

And due to end of Cold War and massive cutbacks to militaries from 1991, there was a huge fleet of relatively low houred European and USA F-16A/Bs available for second hand market. That won’t happen in the future because most F-35 players are buying far fewer F-35s than they did F-16s (e.g. Netherlands acquired 213 F-16s but current plans are 58 or less F-35s).

LOL, What are you talking about now??? The US Dept of Defense, USAF, and USN. Plus, all of the JSF Partners along with Japan and Israel support the F-35.

You have disputed comments from DoD procurement guys and USN admirals in this and other posts!

Never said any such thing! My point is the F-22 and F-35 will be the primary Fighters for the US for decades to come. As for the F/A-XX is at the very beginning of a process that will take decades to develop and put into service. In my personal opinion I believe the F/A-XX (NGAD) Fighter will merge with a future USAF and/or even International Program.

Yet just the other day you called F/A-XX dead.

Nonetheless, we are moving from 4/4.5 Gen Fighters to 5th Gen Fighters. So, unless a country is giving up fighters for it’s Air Force altogether. Then they will have to eventually have to purchase 5th Generation Fighters*.

No they don’t.

Colombia and Ecuador have just brought more 3rd generation Kfir/Cheetahs to replace older Kfirs and Mirage F1s. Argentina is looking at buying Mirage F1s. Romania is looking at buying F-16A/B and Bulgaria and Croatia will probably head the same way.

Brazil is retiring 4th generation Mirage 2000 and is keeping F-5E/Fs. Future jets are likely to 4.5th generation.

Bangladesh canned a MiG-29 order and then brought more J-7s!

Most of Middle East, Sweden, Switzerland, France, Germany, Malaysia etc etc are all focusing on 4.5th generation jets for their future fighters.

Many countries don’t need the latest fighters.

Problem with 5th generation is that it’s main features (e.g. stealth) are overkill for most airforces whose job is patrolling their airspace and providing limited deterrence in relatively benign environments or at worst COIN ops against very low tech opponents.

In this case 4th generation or even upgraded 3rd generation are more than adequate.

( F-35, PAK-FA, J-20, and J-31) Then exclude those countries that don’t purchase Russian or Chinese Equipment. Well, I think many will see the direction this is going……..They majority will in fact purchase the F-35.

Your majority is small and increasingly smaller as the years go by.

PAK-FA and J-20 are large fighters that probably won’t find many export sales at all.

The F-35 is too much for most smaller airforces and even many current F-16 operators.

*Note: Additional 5th and 6th Generation Fighters are likely to follow. Especially, the latter as concepts are already on the drawing board.

Ala F/A-XX!

Honestly I would buy F35 and Transport aircraft and let the rest go except for some infantry and a small coast guard. F35 is so you can play with bigger countries in a offensive role, transport aircraft so you will always have a low risk function on joint operations where you want to avoid being involved in shooting but at same time providing a valuable asset. Infantry because you will always need a army.

You can play with big countries with JAS-39 – Sweden just did that over Libya. And all those “obsolete” F-16s and F/A-18s have been doing stirling work as well.

And that’s not going to change. We won’t see Yemen or Iran or Syria buying T-50s anytime soon.

And political restrictions often mean that your small country F-35 will be only engaging after the Americans have cleared up the house.

Americans tend to operate outside of NATO command structures which have been proven inefficient over Kosovo and Libya.

Maybe a medium range AA and ABM system for potential home air and missile defense.

Most Europeans don’t need advanced AA. Hence many countries don’t have them or haven’t bothered upgrading their obsolete systems.

What ever is left after that throw at the navy.

So the Navy which is one of the more useful elements of a defence force is given the scraps?

I simply don’t buy the argument that small countries cant afford a 40-50 sized force of 100 million dollar/euro fighters.

Given they can’t afford 40-50 sized F-16 forces or MiG-21 forces, they surely can’t afford 40-50 F-35 forces.

Why do F-35 fans think the sole purpose of a country is to fly F-35s and that all other defence functions are secondary to F-35s?

Even F-22 fanboi such as Carlo Kopp never promoted such bizarre thoughts.

When was it stated that F35 was going to be cheaper then a F16? I had always heard it was intended to be equal to the cost of a F16. That doesn’t seem to be in the plan anymore but depending on what year and model F16 purchased and what year and model F35 purchased there getting into roughly the same ballpark.

Even if wa meant to be equal, a 25%-ish increase over F-16 is most likely figure according to DoD. 25% blow out is bad new for militaries operating under tight budgets (and in most instances extreme budget tightening started in 1991!).

That means 25% less fighters or 25% less flight hours or less something else such as infantry batallions/navy ships/schools/hospitals/roads.