That’s absurd.
China and Russia bring vastly more to the table than anyone save the US.
Hell, when was the last time any Europeans operated without a coalition or with the US doing the majority of the work? I don’t say that as an insult, btw.
Their AD is miserable for the most part as well. Sure, they can strike Libya with America doing 50%+ of the work. That makes them 1st rate?
We have different criteria clearly. Flight hours and advanced training gets you only so far when you operate a miserable (in comparison) total force/
Really and when was the last time a Russian fighter squadron made a combat deployment around the world (and not to one of Moscow’s neighbouring puppet states)?
And as stated last time the Russian AF went to war in 2008, it used old fashioned tactics and didn’t display any of the advanced capabilities that even small NATO Western partners such as Dutch or Belgians have been displaying for decades now.
And while pitifully small, the Western NATO partners do generally operate as joint forces thus increasing their capabilities much further (other than Poland, Eastern European NATO partners are more a liability).
And there are deficiencies in things like tankers and ISTAR, but then Russia is even more poorly equipped in these areas.
As for AD systems, NATO tactics obviously emphasise offence over defence – this was a lesson painfully learned by the French in 1940 and demonstrated beautifully by the Israelis in 1967.
Shortcomings of emphasising defence were highlighted in Yom Kippur in 1973, when Egyptians lost any advantage as soon as they flew away from SAM network or when Israeli ground forces started overrunning SAM batteries.
Or 1982, 1986, 1991 and 1999 when Western style forces neutralised enemy AD and then bombed with impunity.
EDIT:
And I do agree on differing criteria between Western NATO and Russia in terms of what constitutes effective combat forces.
Where does China sit in all this is the interesting question.
And yet in Australia you will be arrested for going about naked, and we do restrict the availability and consumption of certain other substances for reasons similar to Muslim concerns about alcohol. These features of Australian society are not derived from respect for abstract principles such as ‘freedom of expression’ (p.s. I thought you were opposed to idealism?) but rather reflect the equilibrium values of the dominant cultural group in 2013; they are features which can, in principle, be altered at will. If the demographic make-up of Australian society were to change sufficiently so as to enable the dress and consumption practices favoured by orthodox Muslims to prevail at the ballot box, the changes thus wrought would be no different — that is to say, a requirement to wear e.g. conservative clothing is fundamentally no more objectionable than the requirement we currently do have to wear clothing at all. Of course, it is no less objectionable either: those who argue that folk should be allowed to go around naked and consume narcotics at will, etc. need not trouble themselves with this point.
To a degree you’re right. In the 1950s Australian society would not have approved of either bikini clad metre maids or sauvingon blanc (“What are you, a poofter? Real men drink beer!” :very_drunk:)
Still Muslims have an unalienable right to live as Muslims in a country like Australia. A Jew or Christian living in Saudi Arabia or Iran or Pakistan does not.
And according to the Islamists extremists living in countries like Australia and UK, Jews and Christians living in UK or Australia also don’t have the right to live as Jews and Christians and should convert to Islam lest something ugly happen to them.
Thobbes: You have clearly not been following the reforms. Organizational and personnel changes have been the most striking and controversial features of the reforms.
Been trying to follow reforms on the Army and there’s still much to be done. Just because you’ve converted a division to a modern brigade doesn’t mean it’s an efficient unit.
I don’t see how new birds + equipment on them + big snap drills don’t mean much. That is absurd.
Actually the only point relevant is the snap drills which indicates capability.
Would you call the Arab militaries as effective just because they have new toys?
And once again, that puts pretty much every AF below effectiveness by that standard.
Most air forces around the world are pretty poor. Very poor readiness including air worthiness, poor training, poor logistics (e.g. South African lack of Gripen support contract or Indonesian Flankers being brought without weappons).
One could probably assign several tiers to air force capability:
1st Tier
– capable of long range combat deployments
– use modern tactics and systems
– excellent readiness.
– advanced training, C3, logistics
– examples: USA, Israel, UK, France and most Western NATO.
2nd Tier
– capable of reasonable defence of sovereign territory including strike capability against neighbouring countries.
– excellent readiness
– use relatively modern tactics and systems
– reasonable to excellent readiness.
– relatively advanced training, C3, logistics
– examples: Japan, South Korea, Singapore.
3rd tier
– capable of reasonable defence of sovereign territory including strike capability against neighbouring countries.
– poor to medium readiness
– poor to medium training, C3 logistics.
– examples: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and dare I say India.
4th tier
– no real capability of defence of sovereign territory.
– zero to medium readiness
– training is a mixed bag but often poor
– examples: most East European (including virtually all NATO members except Poland), Latin American, African and some South East Asian Air forces.
Obviously some countries might have a mixed bag of capabilities or not meet all of the criteria.
I’d say Russia and China are either 2nd or 3rd tier states.
Ok ok, the Europeans dropped a few bombs and missiles during Libya. That is relevant against an actually powerful opponent? By your standard, no, not at all.
Actually the Europeans in the form of UK and France showed good ability in terms of planning, C3, logistics, use of advanced weapons etc.
That the opponent was rubbish is kind of irrelevant.
That long?
I see relative parity, especially if we want to just talk about tactical quantitative strength, before the middle of the decade, at “worst”.
Which decade?
PLA is critically short of force projection tools (tankers, tactical/strategic transport, carriers, amphibious assault ships, supply ships, space assets ala communication, reconaissance and GPS satelites (COMPASS in service 2020).
Most of these will take decades to build up to any level of capability – especially naval assets.
Also USA has two big military advantages in the form of access to bases across the world together with a robust alliance system including control of key choke points (Malacca, Panama, Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and Mediterranean).
Meanwhile China is contained by ring of potential hostile states and limited sea access. That means assets out of action for domestic defence.
We have seen since then new birds have been delivered, with new munitions. Remember, in 2008 Russia wasn’t getting 40+ new Flankers a year. Nor were pilots flying as much, especially on the relevant new birds.
Toys are irrelevant if human capital and organisational restrictions don’t allow their effective usage.
As stated before, increased flight hours don’t mean much if they are not on actual operational missions.
I don’t know how much Russia has done to improve human capital and organisation in the Air Force. I do know they’ve been struggling with the Army (as stated you’re fighting against an organisational culture that dates to pre-Napoleonic times).
Also improvements to ground forces are critical for an air force to be used effectively.
If your army and airforce can’t communicate properly and/or your army is poorly trained then:
1. Air Force won’t be where army needs it.
2. Friendly fire is more common.
3. Impact of close air support and interdiction is not as effective (troops can’t coordinate CAS and lack of communication may see interdiction missions being flown without regards to army requirements e.g. blasting bridges the army actually want to use)
In a mere several days, Russia had more friendly fire incidents than USA in entire 2003 invasion of Iraq.
A Muslim can leave their way of life, but has no right to demand that secular/Christian/Buddhist/Shinto/Confucian/Hindu/animist people should also live as Muslims even in Muslim majority countries.
This is what the UN Convention on Human Rights is all about – freedom of expression, religion, speech, secuality etc etc.
Certainly in Australia we don’t require Muslims to behave like secular/Christian Australians. They can live as Muslims and are free to live as anything else as well (provided they adhere to the laws of the state).
If they don’t like our lack of sharia law, our love of beer and wine or that parking metre girls in the Gold Coast wear bikinis, then they can always move somewhere there is sharia, parking metre attendants are old men and you can’t get a good bottle of Sauvignon Blanc to save yourself.
I refer back to my prediction of mid 21st century, as when PLA, and China as a whole, may be able to challenge the US in westpac on even terms, politically, and militarily.
PLA are certainly advancing on all fronts though, from AFVs, to surface combatants and fighters, and that has been directly a result of its economic rise. It will be probably mid to late 21st century until PLA will be considered a true military superpower, if the trajectory holds.
I don’t think PRC will be able to match the US military.
However the US military will decline in strength. The US military is economically unsustainable and as such is slowly being cut down.
So by 2050 they’ll be more evenly matched with a weaker US and a stronger China.
“The Russians haven’t exhibited great prowess in actual shooting wars. Lots of major deficiencies showed up in Georgia.”
They routed an enemy with almost no preparation. I’d say that is good enough performance.
Remind me the last time any Western power had to face a similar situation.
For every deficiency the Russian forces demonstrated they can still get the job done. And that was before reforms started.
They got the job done against a small foe who generally ran with their tail under the legs. Imagine if the Georgians put up more of a fight (e.g. like the Serbs in 1999). Russia’s military would’ve paid a terrible cost.
Russian military reform started in 1997.
Some of the findings from the Georgian War were (and I’m not going to dredge up the references – I’ve done it numerous times and people should know how to use Google):
1. Professional soldiers did not perform much better than conscripts
2. Russia was unable to fully suppress Georgian AD system.
3. Guided munitions were not used.
4. Poor coordination between ground and air forces.
5. Poor mission planning (e.g. leading to loss of Tu-22M)
6. Poor logistics and poor state of motor pool (they were losing vehicles to malfunction like it was 1941!).
7. Centuries old problem of poorly trained junior officer and NCO corps remained.
The Navy was commended for doing a good job in neutralising Georgia’s fleet in a very efficient manner.
The Russians got the job done in 1942-45, but were still suffering dismal casualties even up to assault on Berlin in 1945. Russian military has always been top heavy (i.e. too much emphasis on higher command and not enough delegation downwards to officers in the field), lacking in initiative and oblivious to massive casualties.
In essence it’s the same military culture as it was in Borodino in 1812!
By the way I really respect the Red Army for what it did in 1941-45. Despite losing most of the pre-1941 army and a huge chunk of its industrial/logistics base, it clawed back and defeated the Wehrmacht (some 90+% of German divisions were engaged in Eastern Front. Contrary to Western opinion, the Western campaigns in Italy and France mainly served to divert German forces from Eastern Front) .
PROSUPER just went to hell, the Navy will acquire used frigates instead of new ones.
There are rumours from well placed sources that FAB is now looking for used F-16 Block 40 to replace the Mirage 2000.
Both are cases of “wow, just wow.”
So Brazil’s “new” frigates and fighters will still be 20 years old!
What are they looking at – old Oliver Hazard Perry frigates? Not much else is available on the market.
http://china-pla.blogspot.co.nz/2011/08/evolution-of-plaaf-doctrinetraining.html
Very interesting article especially with regards to quality improvements. I’m impressed a Chinese JH-7 regiment outperformed a Russian Su-25 one (remember that Russians kinda pioneered CAS with Il-2 Shturmovick and had considerable experience with Su-25 in Afghanistan and Chechnya).
Seems that at least up to 1999 there were still some serious cultural issues with high level PLA brass not understanding role and importance of Air Force.
I fail to see how F-22 and B-2 can be stealthy. :confused: Anyone care to elaborate?
Americans should try to copy Chinese stealth H-6s and J-8s instead.
And for AWACS, why are stupid Americans using E-2 and E-3 AWACS when Tu-4 Bulls equipped with Type 843 radars are sooo much better.
Who knows. Do we generally know the distribution of types of flight hours that western air force pilots experience?
No idea and it would fluctuate too.
Tphuang wrote a blog post a few years back detailing some of the massive restructuring in training the PLAAF had undergone, such as red and blue sword exercises, which while it certainly isn’t anywhere near real combat against a near peer foe (although one may argue no western air force has had to face a near peer since the gulf war, if that!), it is a massive improvement.
There are few examples to actually compare PLAAF fighter competency — there is the infamous turkish air force exercise, where PLAAF J-11As were apparently badly mauled by TAF F-4s, although a critical mind may wonder if PLAAF would want to demonstrate anything near its real tactics to a NATO member.Regardless, the human factor of PLA capability will still have a big question mark hanging over it for years to come.
I did read about a PLA exercise a few years ago where they got their best batallion commanders to command combined arms groups in a modern fashion. Apparently not a single commander operated to satisfaction.
Obviously the PLA would’ve corrected it’s training syllabus.
With regards to Western experience, from a logistics and Command, Control and Communications perspective all the wars fought in recent years would provide good experience relevant to operations against peers.
And these things are critical in combat. E.g. if your command structure is inflexible (as Soviet ones were) it makes it difficult to respond to pressure points and it creates a culture of poor initiative amongst lower level officers (such as combat pilots).
Similarly logistic systems are critical – PL12 or AIM120 might be awesome but pointless if they’re in a depot somewhere as opposed to forward deployed.
The Australian Army had a shock in East Timor when it’s logistic systems proved to be poor – troops on the ground were lacking in even such basic things as water. Obviously this was corrected.
I remember reading about Allied amphibious landings in Sicily and Italy. Due to poor logistics coordination troops on the ground lacked radios yet there was tons of them sitting on board ships.
Didnt China and Russia had a joint exercise a couple of years ago ?
There should be russian comments on that which can be somewhat quantified compared to russian prowess,
which in turn is already measured vs western standard,
The Russians haven’t exhibited great prowess in actual shooting wars. Lots of major deficiencies showed up in Georgia.
tho, western standard varies greatly too,
and will become even more different with 2-tier policy etc coming into place to curb debt increase
Two tier is only confirmed for France.
Its Australia that’s pretending. When they have the US to cover their asses, why pretend to be a nation that needs any serious conventional capability? THey’re a poodle of the US anyway. Dont tell me they’re so scared that the Indonesians are going to invade them and take them over or that China is the threat? China would whack them if there ever was a serious dispute, and Australia would go running to their real protectors, the US.
And whats this retarded rubbish about SSKs being prestige programs for India? Since when did diesel subs become prestige programs? 😀
Anyway, India will defend its seas air and land on its own, not ask someone else to do our job or cover our asses when the going gets too tough, thank you very much. Neither are SSNs prestige programs. The first SSN the INS Chakra was leased from the USSR to give the IN a good training vessel that would help build nuclear sub operations experience. All of which was to build towards an eventual SSBN that was being developed. Once again, unlike Australia, India has to have its own deterrant and the SSN leased is vital to that requirement.
Talk about pretence! WHen was the last time Australia went to war over a problem of its own instead of sending a handful of troops to show that it was a worthwhile ally?
Totally agree on Australia being an American lap dog.
I did mean SSN.
India plays around with SSNs and carrier groups whilst it’s people live in abject poverty (33% under international poverty line of $1.25 a day and 68.7% under $2 a day), a quarter of the population is illiterate and over half the population doesn’t have access to proper sanitation (which means drinking water can be contaminated).
China may invest in toys but only 33% of population is under $2 a day (13% under one dollar a day) and only about 8% of population is illiterate. 36% don’t have access to improved sanitation.
In many areas iron rice bowl still exists so the poor get a far bit of government support, this doesn’t happen in India.
And according to UN China is showing the most progress in poverty elimination.
So yes India does pretend to be a superpower.
Suit yourself. I think China, the Soviet Union, and the United States all demonstrate that even deep flaws in a society will struggle to overwhelm the power that follows from sheer numbers coupled with even inefficient economic development. The country might fall apart I guess…
Soviet Union is a terrible example. It’s super power status was gained at the expense of millions of lives in Stalin’s forced industrialisation.
And it was economic stagnation from the 1960s on with a disastrous collapse in 1991.
USA’s 19th and early 20th century societies was far less flawed than India’s in terms of key economic drivers (unbridled capitalism compared to India’s still heavily controlled economy), literacy rates (only 10% by 1900 and then that mostly with the Southern African Americans and that not industrial north).
China did what the USSR should’ve done. It rebuilt after the lunatic Mao Zedong period and was smart enough to figure out that capitalism was a far better way of going than Communism.
Yes, but then we don’t tend to regard doctors as heroes in any case
Doctors are made out to be heros, paragons of soceity and humanitarians.
Going to be obsolete shortly……….then what???
Countries like Thailand, Morroco, Iraq, Jordan, Chile, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Switzerland, Indonesia etc don’t need F-35s. JAS-39C/D and/or F-16C/D Blk 50 offer more than adequate capabilities for their requirements.
It’s just like Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal, Australia, Spain, Canada, Belgium etc etc didn’t need F-15s and F-16 and F/A-18 were more than adequate for their needs.
F-35 is a specialised high end jet. 5th generation is for the filthy rich or those who have actual conventional war threats against high tech opponents.