thobbes1980s was baby steps for USA – Grenada, Panama and skirmishing with Iran and Libya weren’t exactly large commitments by US standards. Also Ronald Reagan was exceptional for a post 1970 President – even George W. Bush didn’t have his level of zeal and commitment to military expansion. In fact military was cut under Dubya.
Let’s hope people don’t get silly post 2020.
thobbesSo we have hypothetically:
2020 – 11 for Armee de l’ Aire
2021 – 11 for Armee de l’ Aire
2022 – 11 for Armee de l’ Aire
2023 – 7 for Armee de l’ Aire
TOTAL: 40 (+140 already delivered up to 2016)
As stated then there’s a requirement to replace 50-ish Mirage 2000D to bring fleet total up to 225 authorised jets. This would push Rafale deliveries out to 2028.
If Scooter is elected President of the Fifth Repbulic, those 50 aircraft will be F-35s. :highly_amused:
thobbesThe Argies didn’t really do ECM so even older SAM systems would’ve been effective.
The Kara class would’ve been potent with M-11 Shtorm (SA-N-3) and 9K33 Osa (SA-8) SAMS. Kresta II cruisers also fielded SA-N-3.
There was also several Udaloys and Sovermnys in service – all with modern SAMs.
Even the older S-125 (SA-3/SA-N-1) on Kresta cruisers would’ve been potent and even more so than in 1973 because of Argentina’s lack of ECM.
thobbesFirstly the Russians didn’t have a viable carrier force. Yak-38 was pretty much junk. That would’ve left air defence to ship based SAMs
On the other hand, the Russians probably would’ve happily smacked mainland Argentina around with cruise missiles and strategic bombers operating out of Ascenionski Island.
Russian naval squadrons also would’ve gone into action against Argentinian naval bases.
Buenos Aires would look like Grozny circa 1999.
thobbesIf this is the case, then why and how do you justify the French Tiger and NH-90 purchases? I for one thought it very strange and unrealistic to purchase French equipment/platforms, when our prime operating partner is the United States! (I guess this is what happens when politics decides over realistic military ops!!)
As stated I would’ve gone with Blackhawks over NH90s (and I suspect in hindsight most of Europe would have as well!).
As for the Tiger, again I would’ve preferred AH-64D/E. But then Australia didn’t want an attack helicopter, they wanted an armed reconnaissance helicopter. Maybe if Americans hadn’t cancelled RAH-66 Comanche, Australia would’ve selected those instead.
However the Tiger isn’t a core capability unlike multirole jets hence 100% interoperability isn’t as critical.
Also Tiger is compatible with US weapons – Hellfire and Hydra 70.
thobbesIssue with Indian Rafale is there’s no contract signed and realistically it might be 2014 by the time it is signed. However there is a possibility a contract is signed even later – look at Hawk AJT contracts.
Mind you the same could happen if India scraps MRCA and eventually goes for Scooter’s true love, the F-35. Given MRCA, Tejas and Hawk sagas, a proposed Indian F-35 buy could see aircraft only delivered post 2030!
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Assuming this is generally correct, who are the 22 Rafales being produced in 2018-19 going to?
And any info on what’s happening post 2019? France will still have 40 outstanding from original agreed number of 180. Also there will be 50 M2000Ds that need eventual replacing.
thobbesTotally agree.
One should never draw lines in the sand unless they intend to back them up with strong action.
In this case a throwaway line in a public statement has put the US in a position where it has to go to war. That’s quite insane by any standards.
thobbesThe only way around it is to cut number of fleet carriers in service.
But even then 260 F-35C is insufficient even if you cut number of carrier from 11 to 6! You’d still need 300 F/A-18E/F.
thobbesThe thing is F/A-18F was meant to be a stopgap between retirement of F-111 and service entry of F-35.
However RAAF really liked the F/A-18Fs and hence the additional E/A-18G buy. Also getting 100 F-35s is seeming unlikely.
I’m sure if RAAF could’ve predicted the future, they would’ve brought something ala F-15E for F-111 replacement. After all F-15E has better combat range, better speed and bigger payload than either F/A-18F or F-35A.
A more ideal combo would be Eurofighter (F/A-18A/B replacement) + F-15E (F-111 replacement).
Like Canada, I don’t see much need for stealth. Indonesia’s airforce and airdefence is a joke and doesn’t look to be getting any better in future (next fighter is F-16C/D Block 25 and I’m not sold on KFX). Anything else and we’re operating under US umbrella.
However F-35A+F/A-18F+ E/A-18G+ E-7 Wedgetail AWACS + KC-30A tankers will ensure continued air dominance in SE Asia.
thobbesI said the same thing to my wife the other day!
Rudd would declare war on New Zealand if it appealled to his ego. That man’s a megalomaniac.
When he was foreign minister he had some discussions with Hilary Clinton and he was advocating war against China. Before that he went to China, visited a Chinese school and told them in Mandarin all the problems he thought China had.
He does policy via press release and doesn’t care for Cabinet or Parliament. He treats his staff like crap.
He’s the worst PM Australia has probably ever had in living memory.
thobbesHopefully Cameron will respect Parliament’s wishes and keep the Brits out of any Syrian folly. If it was Tony Blair he’d already be bombing Syria as well as Lebanon, Mauritania and Antarctica for good measure.
thobbesy
Didn’t the USN Purchase more Super Hornets than planned of course they did. So, are really saying there is no way that the Navy won’t purchase more than planned today???
Do you know why USN brought more Super Hornets? Basically the F/A-18A-D fleet’s life was shortened by higher than planned utilisation rate brought on by about 15 years of near continuous war (1999-current).
USA has lost its appetite for more war. It’s like situation after Vietnam – only US operations in whole of 1975-1990 period were relatively small ones (Eagle Claw, Grenada, Panama, skirmishing with Libya and skirmishing with Iran).
This should help preserve F/A-18E/F fleet. Though early F/A-18E/Fs have been flogged, deployment rates will slow down over next few years with wind down of Afghanistan and loss of appetite for war.
Also F/A-18C/D is only slated for retirement in 2027 or 29 (can’t remember which).
Congressional Budget Office in 2010 was predicting about 300 F/A-18E/Fs still in service by 2030.
However since then SLEPs and modernisations for F/A-18C/D (as well as USAF F-16s) were announced to extend legacy fighters to 2030 while an additional 126 F/A-18E/Fs and E/A-18Gs was announced.
Under CBO estimates, this would mean 500 F/A-18E/Fs in service in 2030. As such they would be the mainstay fighter of the USN in 2030.
thobbesNo, I believe only about ~150 F-15C will receive upgrades. Which, are mainly just centered around an AESA Radar. The rest will be retired shortly. The F-15E’s are Newer and maybe around for sometime. Of course more will depend on if it can survive future threats. Especially, past 2030……..
Man you come up with some poo.
USAF has stated that 245 F-15C/D Eagles will be upgraded. They called these Golden Eagles.
I said “WIDESPREAD” service…………in the case of the Super Hornet.
USN currently operates about 900 multi-role fighters (i.e. exclude E/A-18G and remaining EA-6B as well as F-5 and F-16 aggressors) to support 11 carrier wings. This fleet is insufficient for 11 carrier wings so USMC F/A-18 squadrons deploy as part of carrier wings.
The USN will receive 260 F-35C.
So unless they gut their carrier fleet wholesale, how are they going to replace F/A-18E/F whole sale?
As it stands USN fleet will be about 500 F/A-18E/F (taking into account attrition) + 260 F-35C (+ 80 USMC F-35Cs).
USN has been chopping proposed F-35 numbers and recent comments were that they might buy even less F-35Cs.
thobbesHe said “Amazing that democracies engage in war far more often than dictatorships”, i.e. a general statement, then tacked China on the end, apparently as an example of dictatorships in general. If he meant it to be about China & only China, he should not have written what he did. As written, it covers all dictatorships, not only China.
Actually in the last 30 years the 3rd world dictatorships have been starting less and less wars due to dwindling conventional forces and growth of insurgencies and rebellions
US has tried to expand several wars from internal conflicts to international ones through interventionism.
US also eagerly starts wars – Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq as well as extreme militarisation of basically police operations in places like Yemen and Colombia.
The Russians don’t start nearly as many wars and limit conflict to their security buffer zone. The Chinese don’t bother with war at all, though it would seem if many Americans really do want the Chinese to launch some sort of suicidal attack in the Pacific.
thobbesThey currently have no official plan to purchase F-35B’s. Yet, that doesn’t mean they won’t at some point. I like many others believe they will. Especially, considering the rise of China’s own Carrier Program. Honestly, I think the “odds” are very good that Australia, Japan, and South Korea will all purchase F-35B’s are some point. That is of course just my opinion.
Indeed your opinion and certainly not reflected in anything coming out of DoD or RAN.
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